2020 United States Senate election in Massachusetts

The 2020 United States Senate election in Massachusetts will be held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

2020 United States Senate election in Massachusetts

November 3, 2020
 
Nominee TBD TBD
Party Democratic Republican

Incumbent U.S. senator

Ed Markey
Democratic


In the September 1 primaries, U.S. Representative Joe Kennedy III is challenging incumbent Senator Ed Markey for the Democratic nomination; Shiva Ayyadurai and Kevin O'Connor are competing for the Republican nomination.

Democratic primary

The state primary election will take place on September 1, 2020.[1]

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

  • Washington Blask[5][6]
  • Shannon Liss-Riordan, labor attorney[7]
  • Steve Pemberton, chief human resources officer of Workhuman (endorsed Markey)[8]
  • Allen Waters, perennial candidate[9]

Declined

Endorsements

Joe Kennedy III
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Statewide politicians
State legislators
Local politicians
Individuals
Labor unions
Ed Markey
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Statewide politicians
State officials
Local officials
Individuals
Unions
Organizations
Newspapers

Polling

Joe Kennedy III vs. Ed Markey
Source of poll aggregation Dates administered Date updated Joe
Kennedy III
Ed
Markey
Undecided[lower-alpha 1] Margin
RealClearPolitics April 27 – August 7, 2020 August 15, 2020 44.8% 44.8% 10.4% Tie
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Ed
Markey
Maura
Healey
Shannon
Liss-Riordan
Joe
Kennedy III
Seth
Moulton
Steve
Pemberton
Allen
Waters
Other Undecided
UMassAmherst/WCVB July 31–Aug. 7, 2020 362 (LV) ± 7.0% 51% 36% 1% 12%
JMC Analytics and Polling July 29–30, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 44% 41% 16%
Emerson College May 5–6, 2020 620 (LV) ± 3.9% 42% 58% 0%
University of Massachusetts Lowell April 27 – May 1, 2020 531 (LV) ± 7.8% 42% 44% 4%[lower-alpha 3] 10%
Suffolk University/Boston Globe/WBZ February 26–28, 2020 465 (LV) ± 4.4% 36% 42% 1%[lower-alpha 4] 21%
UMass Amherst/WCVB February 18–24, 2020 400 (LV) ± 5.9% 43% 40% 4% 13%
UMass Lowell/YouGov February 12–19, 2020 450 ± 6.1% 34% 35% 23%
Oct 14, 2019 Pemberton withdraws from the race
Sep 21, 2019 Kennedy announces his candidacy
Suffolk University/Boston Globe September 3–5, 2019 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 28% 42% 29%
26% <1% 35% 1% 0% 36%
Change Research August 23–25, 2019 808 ± 3.5% 25% 5% 42% 7%
Jul 23, 2019 Pemberton announces his candidacy
Suffolk University June 5–9, 2019 370 ± 5.1% 44% 5% 5% 45%
YouGov/UMass Amherst November 7–14, 2018 635 26% 27% 35%
636 29% 25% 38%
Oct 5, 2018 Markey announces his candidacy
Suffolk University September 13–17, 2018 433 24% 18% 45%

Debates

Results

Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Joe Kennedy III
Democratic Ed Markey (incumbent)
Total votes 100.0%

Republican primary

The state primary election will take place on September 1, 2020.[1]

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Other candidates

Green Party

Withdrew

Independents

Declared

  • Frederick Mayock, independent candidate for Massachusetts' 1st congressional district in 2020[5][122]

General election

The general election will take place on November 3, 2020.[1]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[123] Safe D July 23, 2020
Inside Elections[124] Safe D July 10, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[125] Safe D August 5, 2020
Daily Kos[126] Safe D July 22, 2020
Politico[127] Safe D July 6, 2020
RCP[128] Safe D August 6, 2020
Niskanen[129] Safe D July 26, 2020
270towin[130] Safe D August 6, 2020

Polling

Hypothetical polling
with Charlie Baker
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Ed
Markey (D)
Charlie
Baker (R)
Undecided
Change Research August 23–25, 2019 1,008 ± 3.1% 44% 45%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Shannon
Liss-Riordan (D)
Charlie
Baker (R)
Undecided
Change Research August 23–25, 2019 1,008 ± 3.1% 35% 54%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Joe
Kennedy III (D)
Charlie
Baker (R)
Undecided
Change Research August 23–25, 2019 1,008 ± 3.1% 49% 41%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Steve
Pemberton (D)
Charlie
Baker (R)
Undecided
Change Research August 23–25, 2019 1,008 ± 3.1% 31% 56%

Results

United States Senate election in Massachusetts, 2020
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Democratic TBD
Republican TBD
Independent Frederick Mayock
Total votes 100.0%

Notes

  1. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. "Another candidate" with 4%
  4. "Refused" with 1%

References

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