2020 United States presidential election in Michigan
The 2020 United States presidential election in Michigan is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate.[1] Michigan voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Michigan has 16 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]
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Michigan is expected to be tightly contested in 2020, as it was the closest state by margin in the 2016 election, where President Trump became the first Republican to carry Michigan’s electoral votes since 1988, when George H. W. Bush won in a national landslide against Michael Dukakis.
Primary elections
The primary elections were on March 10, 2020.
Republican primary
Incumbent United States President Donald Trump was challenged by three candidates: former governor Mark Sanford of South Carolina, former congressman Joe Walsh of Illinois, and former governor Bill Weld of Massachusetts. Sanford and Walsh both withdrew prior to the primary. Michigan is the only primary state where Sanford's name remained on the ballot.[3]
Candidate | Votes | % | Estimated delegates |
---|---|---|---|
Donald Trump | 639,500 | 93.9% | 73 |
Uncommitted | 25,966 | 4.0% | |
Bill Weld | 5,711 | 0.9% | |
Mark Sanford (withdrawn) | 3,991 | 0.6% | |
Joe Walsh (withdrawn) | 3,845 | 0.6% | |
Total | 642,567 | 100% | 73 |
Democratic primary
Bernie Sanders and former Vice President Joe Biden were the two major declared Democratic candidates.[5]
Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates |
---|---|---|---|
Joe Biden | 840,360 | 52.93 | 73 |
Bernie Sanders | 576,926 | 36.34 | 52 |
Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn†) | 73,464 | 4.63 | |
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn†) | 26,148 | 1.65 | |
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn†) | 22,462 | 1.41 | |
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn†) | 11,018 | 0.69 | |
Tulsi Gabbard | 9,461 | 0.60 | |
Andrew Yang (withdrawn†) | 2,380 | 0.15 | |
Tom Steyer (withdrawn†) | 1,732 | 0.11 | |
Michael Bennet (withdrawn†) | 1,536 | 0.10 | |
Cory Booker (withdrawn) | 840 | 0.05 | |
Joe Sestak (withdrawn) | 757 | 0.05 | |
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) | 719 | 0.05 | |
John Delaney (withdrawn†) | 464 | 0.03 | |
Julian Castro (withdrawn) | 306 | 0.02 | |
Uncommitted | 19,106 | 1.20 | |
Total | 1,587,679 | 100% | 125 |
†Candidate withdrew after early voting started.
General election
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[7] | Lean D (flip) | July 23, 2020 |
Inside Elections[8] | Lean D (flip) | July 17, 2020 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[9] | Lean D (flip) | July 14, 2020 |
Politico[10] | Lean D (flip) | July 6, 2020 |
RCP[11] | Tossup | August 3, 2020 |
Niskanen[12] | Likely D (flip) | July 26, 2020 |
CNN[13] | Lean D (flip) | August 3, 2020 |
The Economist[14] | Likely D (flip) | August 7, 2020 |
CBS News[15] | Lean D (flip) | August 9, 2020 |
270towin[16] | Lean D (flip) | August 2, 2020 |
ABC News[17] | Lean D (flip) | July 31, 2020 |
NPR[18] | Lean D (flip) | August 3, 2020 |
NBC News[19] | Lean D (flip) | August 6, 2020 |
538[20] | Lean D (flip) | August 14, 2020 |
Polling
Aggregate polls
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Joe Biden | Donald Trump | Other/Undecided[lower-alpha 1] | Margin |
270 to Win | July 19 – August 6, 2020 | August 10, 2020 | 48.4% | 41.0% | 10.6% | Biden +7.4 |
Real Clear Politics | July 24 – August 6, 2020 | August 10, 2020 | 48.0% | 41.7% | 10.3% | Biden +6.3 |
FiveThirtyEight | until August 6, 2020 | August 10, 2020 | 49.5% | 41.7% | 8.8% | Biden +7.8 |
Average | 48.6% | 41.5% | 9.9% | Biden +7.1 |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump (R) |
Joe Biden (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CNBC/Change Research | Aug 7–9, 2020 | 413 (LV) | – | 43% | 48% | – | – |
University of Wisconsin-Madison/YouGov | Jul 27 – Aug 6, 2020 | 761 (RV) | ± 5.1% | 43% | 47% | – | – |
David Binder Research | Jul 30–31, 2020 | 200 (LV) | – | 41% | 51% | – | – |
EPIC-MRA | Jul 25–30, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 51% | 3%[lower-alpha 3] | 6% |
Public Policy Polling | Jul 28–29, 2020 | 876 (V) | – | 43% | 49% | 6% | 3% |
Change Research/CNBC | Jul 24–26, 2020 | 413 (LV) | – | 42% | 46% | – | – |
Morning Consult | Jul 17–26, 2020 | 1,320 (LV) | ± 2.7% | 42% | 52% | – | – |
YouGov | Jul 21–24, 2020 | 1,177 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 42% | 48% | 2% | 7% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | Jul 19–24, 2020 | 811 (RV) | – | 37% | 49% | 4%[lower-alpha 4] | 10% |
CNN/SSRS | Jul 18–24, 2020 | 927 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 40% | 52% | 5%[lower-alpha 5] | 2% |
Gravis Marketing | Jul 22, 2020 | 754 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 42% | 51% | – | 7% |
Fox News | Jul 18–20, 2020 | 756 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 40% | 49% | 3% | 7% |
Spry Strategies | Jul 11–16, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 50% | 45% | – | 5% |
Change Research/CNBC | Jul 10–12, 2020 | 824 (LV) | – | 42% | 48% | – | – |
Public Policy Polling/Giffords (D) | Jul 9–10, 2020 | 1,041 (V) | ± 3.2% | 44% | 51% | – | 5% |
Change Research/CNBC | Jun 26–28, 2020 | 699 (LV)[lower-alpha 6] | – | 43% | 48% | – | – |
Public Policy Polling/Progress Michigan (D)[upper-alpha 1] | Jun 26–27, 2020 | 1,237 (V) | – | 44% | 50% | 5%[lower-alpha 7] | 1% |
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) | Jun 17–20, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 38% | 56% | 2%[lower-alpha 8] | 7% |
Trafalgar Group | Jun 16–18, 2020 | 1,101 (LV) | ± 2.95% | 45% | 46% | 5%[lower-alpha 9] | 4% |
NYT Upshot/Siena College | Jun 8–17, 2020 | 610 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 36% | 47% | 8%[lower-alpha 10] | 9% |
Change Research/CNBC | Jun 12–14, 2020 | 353 (LV)[lower-alpha 11] | – | 45% | 47% | 3%[lower-alpha 12] | – |
American Greatness/TIPP | Jun 9–12, 2020 | 859 (LV) | – | 38% | 51% | 4%[lower-alpha 13] | 7% |
Kiaer Research | May 31 – Jun 7, 2020 | 543 (LV) | ± 6.4% | 35% | 50% | 6%[lower-alpha 14] | 8% |
EPIC-MRA | May 31 – Jun 4, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 39% | 55% | – | – |
EPIC-MRA | May 30 – Jun 3, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 41% | 53% | – | 6%[lower-alpha 15] |
Change Research/CNBC | May 29–31, 2020 | 620 (LV)[lower-alpha 16] | – | 46% | 48% | 3% | 3% |
Public Policy Polling/Progress Michigan[upper-alpha 2] | May 29–30, 2020 | 1,582 (V) | ± 2.5% | 44% | 50% | 4%[lower-alpha 17] | 2% |
Public Policy Polling/Protect Our Care[upper-alpha 3] | May 18–19, 2020 | 1,234 (V) | ± 2.8% | 45% | 51% | – | 5% |
Change Research/Crooked Media | May 11–17, 2020 | 3,070 (LV) | – | 46% | 49% | – | – |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | May 10–14, 2020 | 970 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 39% | 47% | 3%[lower-alpha 18] | 11% |
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) | May 1–5, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 3% | 42% | 50% | – | 8% |
Public Policy Polling[upper-alpha 4] | Apr 28–29, 2020 | 1,270 (V) | – | 42% | 50% | – | 8% |
Public Policy Polling[upper-alpha 5] | Apr 20–21, 2020 | 1,277 (RV) | – | 44% | 51% | – | 5% |
Fox News | Apr 18–21, 2020 | 801 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 41% | 49% | 3% | 6% |
Ipsos/Reuters | Apr 15–20, 2020 | 612 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 38% | 46% | – | – |
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) | Apr 9–11, 2020 | 600 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 49% | – | – |
Hart Research/CAP Action[upper-alpha 6] | Apr 6–8, 2020 | 303 (RV) | – | 41% | 50% | 4% | 5% |
Public Policy Polling | Mar 31 – Apr 1, 2020 | 1,019 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 45% | 48% | – | 7% |
SPRY Strategies | Mar 30 – Apr 1, 2020 | 602 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 46% | – | 8% |
Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes | Mar 17–25, 2020 | 997 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 42% | 47% | – | 11% |
Change Research | Mar 21–23, 2020 | 510 (LV) | – | 47% | 48% | 5% | |
Marketing Resource Group | Mar 16–20, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0 % | 41% | 44% | – | – |
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) | Mar 12–16, 2020 | 600 (RV) | – | 44% | 50% | – | – |
AtlasIntel | Mar 7–9, 2020 | 1,100 (RV) | ± 3.0 % | 46% | 44% | 10% | – |
YouGov/Yahoo News | Mar 6–8, 2020 | 566 (RV) | – | 41% | 45% | 6%[lower-alpha 19] | 7% |
Monmouth University | Mar 5–8, 2020 | 977 (RV) | ± 3.1 % | 41% | 48% | 2% | 9% |
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus | Mar 5–7, 2020 | 550 (RV) | ± 5.3 % | 46% | 44% | – | – |
YouGov | Feb 11–20, 2020 | 1,249 (RV) | ± 4.0 % | 43% | 47% | – | – |
Quinnipiac University | Feb 12–18, 2020 | 845 (RV) | ± 3.4 % | 43% | 47% | 6%[lower-alpha 20] | 3% |
Expedition Strategies/Progressive Policies Institute | Feb 6–18, 2020 | 500 (RV) | – | 43% | 43% | – | 14% |
EPIC-MRA/Detroit Free Press | Jan 9–12, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 44% | 50% | – | 6% |
Glengariff Group Inc. | Jan 3–7, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 43% | 50% | – | 5% |
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus | Dec 3–5, 2019 | 551 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 46% | 41% | 8% [lower-alpha 21] | 5% [lower-alpha 22] |
Emerson College | Oct 31 – Nov 3, 2019 | 1,051 | ± 3.0% | 44% | 56% | – | – |
NYT Upshot/Siena College | Oct 13–25, 2019 | 501 (LV) | ± 5.1% | 44% | 45% | – | – |
Target Insyght | Sep 24–26, 2019 | 800 | – | 35% | 54% | – | – |
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus | Sep 7–9, 2019 | 529 | ± 4.0% | 41% | 42% | 17% | – |
EPIC-MRA | Aug 17–21, 2019 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 41% | 51% | – | 8% |
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus | Jun 11–13, 2019 | 587 | ± 4.2% | 43% | 46% | 11% | – |
EPIC-MRA | Jun 8–12, 2019 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 41% | 52% | – | 7% |
Glengariff Group | May 28–30, 2019 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 41% | 53% | – | 4% |
WPA Intelligence | Apr 27–30, 2019 | 200 | ± 6.9% | 42% | 45% | – | 12% |
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus | Mar 19–21, 2019 | 530 | ± 4.5% | 46% | 45% | 4% | – |
Emerson College | Mar 7–10, 2019 | 743 | ± 3.5% | 46% | 54% | – | – |
Glengariff Group | Jan 24–26, 2019 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 40% | 53% | – | 5% |
EPIC-MRA | Apr 28–30, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 39% | 52% | – | 9% |
Zogby Analytics | Sep 2017 | 800 | – | 35% | 52% | – | 13% |
Four-way race
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump (R) |
Joe Biden (D) |
Jo Jorgensen (L) |
Howie Hawkins (G) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | Jun 14–16, 2020 | 826 (LV) | ± 3.41% | 36% | 47% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 12% |
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Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg
Donald Trump vs. Cory Booker
Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar
Donald Trump vs. Beto O'Rourke
Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders
Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren
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Hypothetical polling | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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with Donald Trump, Joe Biden, and Justin Amash
with Donald Trump, Joe Biden, and Howard Schultz
with Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders, and Howard Schultz
with Donald Trump and Generic Democrat
with Donald Trump and Generic Opponent
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See also
Notes
- Partisan clients
- Progress Michigan is a non-profit that primarily supports Democratic candidates
- Progress Michigan is a non-profit that primarily supports Democratic candidates
- Protect Our Care is a pro-Affordable Care Act organisation
- Poll sponsored by Progress Michigan, the Michigan branch of Progress Now, a progressive advocacy organisation
- Poll sponsored by Protect Our Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organisation
- CAP Action is a political advocacy group that exclusively supports Democratic candidates
- Poll sponsored by the Sanders campaign
- Voter samples and additional candidates
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - "Jo Jorgensen" with 3%
- "Jo Jorgensen" with 1%; "Howie Hawkins" 1%; "Another Third Party/Write-In" 2%
- "Other" with 1%; "Neither" with 4%
- Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
- "Would vote third party" with 5%
- "Refused" with 2%
- "Third party candidate" with 5%
- Would not vote with 5%; "Another candidate" with 3%
- Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
- "Libertarian Party candidate/Green Party candidate" with 3%
- "Other" with 4%; "prefer not to answer" with 0%
- "A different candidate" with 6%
- Includes "refused"
- Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
- "Third party" with 4%
- "Third party/write-in" with 3%
- "Other" with 4%; would not vote with 2%
- "Someone else" with 2%; would not vote with 4%
- A third party candidate with 5%; would not vote with 3%
- Includes "refused"
- "Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 4%
- A third party candidate with 5%; would not vote with 3%
- Includes "refused"
- "Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 5%
- A third party candidate with 4%; would not vote with 4%
- Includes "refused"
- "Someone else" with 2%; would not vote with 4%
- "Other" with 5%; would not vote with 2%
- "Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 4%
- A third party candidate with 4%; would not vote with 2%
- Includes "refused"
- "Someone else" with 2%; would not vote with 5%
- A third party candidate with 3%; would not vote with 5%
- Includes "refused"
- Figures for each candidate in this poll include undecided voters who were reported to lean towards that candidate at the time of polling.
- "It depends on who the Democrats nominate" with 1.9%; "unsure" with 1%
- Figures for each candidate in this poll include undecided voters who were reported to lean towards that candidate at the time of polling.
- Listed as "Would vote to replace Trump"
- Listed as "would consider voting for someone other than Trump"
- Listed as "Would vote to replace Trump"
- Listed as "would consider voting for someone other than Trump"
- Listed as "Would vote to replace Trump"
- 19% listed as "would consider voting for someone other than Trump"; 3% as "undecided/refused"
- "Vote to replace Trump" with 45%
- "Consider voting for someone else" with 19%; "Undecided/refused" with 4%
- "Vote to replace Trump" with 49%
- "Consider voting for someone else" with 16%; "Don't know/refused" with 4%
References
- Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- "Michigan Will Keep Mark Sanford's Name on the Republican Presidential Primary Unless he Sends in a Withdrawal Letter | Ballot Access News".
- https://mvic.sos.state.mi.us/PublicBallot
- Taylor, Kate (9 February 2019). "Elizabeth Warren Formally Announces 2020 Presidential Bid in Lawrence, Mass". The New York Times. Retrieved 10 February 2019.
- "2020 Michigan Election Results". Michigan Secretary of State. Retrieved June 11, 2020.
- "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
- "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
- "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
- "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
- "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
- 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
- David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved 2020-06-16.
- "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved 7 July 2020.
- "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
- "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
- "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
- "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved 2020-08-03.
- "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved 2020-08-06.
- "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved 14 August 2020.