2020 United States Senate election in Texas

The general election for the 2020 United States Senate in Texas will be held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member to the United States Senate to represent the State of Texas, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican Senator John Cornyn is running for reelection to a fourth term.

2020 United States Senate election in Texas
November 3, 2020
 
Nominee John Cornyn MJ Hegar
Party Republican Democratic
Incumbent U.S. senator

John Cornyn
Republican
Elections in Texas
Government

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in the primary
  • Virgil Bierschwale, U.S. Navy veteran, software developer, realtor[2]
  • John Anthony Castro, attorney, author, businessman, entrepreneur[3][4][5][6][7]
  • Dwayne Stovall, bridge construction contractor, businessman[8]
  • Mark Yancey, businessman, Attacca International Executive, former owner of the Dallas Wings basketball team[9][10]

Declined

Endorsements
John Cornyn
U.S. Senators
Statewide officials

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Virgil
Bierschwale		 John
Anthony
Castro		 John
Cornyn		 Dwayne
Stovall		 Mark
Yancey		 Undecided
University of Texas at St Tyler/Dallas News January 21–30, 2020 445 (LV) ±4.65% <1% 5% 62% 3% 1% 30%
Data for Progress[upper-alpha 1] January 16–21, 2020 687 (LV) – 1% 0% 75% 2% 1% 22%

Results
Results by county
Republican primary results [16]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican John Cornyn (incumbent) 1,470,669 76.04%
Republican Dwayne Stovall 231,104 11.95%
Republican Mark Yancey 124,864 6.46%
Republican John Anthony Castro 86,916 4.49%
Republican Virgil Bierschwale 20,494 1.06%
Total votes 1,934,047 100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in the runoff

Eliminated in the primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements
MJ Hegar
Federal officials
Newspapers
Organizations
Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez (eliminated)
Federal officials
Labor unions
Newspapers
Organizations
Individuals
Royce West (eliminated)
Federal officials
State officials
Local officials
Organizations
Newspapers
Individuals
Amanda Edwards (eliminated)
Newspapers
Organizations
Individuals

First round

Debates
Host
network		 Date Link(s) Participants
MJ
Hegar		 Royce
West		 Cristina
Tzintzún
Ramirez		 Annie
Garcia		 Amanda Edwards Chris Bell Sema
Hernandez		 Michael
Cooper		 Victor Hugo
Harris		 Adrian
Ocegueda		 Jack Daniel
Foster, Jr.		 D.R.
Hunter
KHOU-11 February 18, 2020 [77] Present Present Present Present Present Present Present Present Present Present Present Absent

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Chris
Bell		 Amanda
Edwards		 Annie
Garcia		 MJ
Hegar		 Sema
Hernandez		 Cristina
Ramirez		 Royce
West		 Other Undecided
NBC News/Marist February 23–27, 2020 556 ± 5.3% 5% 7% – 16% 5% 9% 8% 5%[lower-alpha 2] 34%
YouGov/University of Texas/Texas Tribune January 31 – February 9, 2020 575 (LV)[lower-alpha 3] ±4.09% 7% 6% 5% 22% 5% 9% 6% 40%[lower-alpha 4] –
University of Texas at Tyler/Dallas News January 21–30, 2020 414 (LV) ± 4.8% 5% 4% 6% 9% 4% 4% 6% 12%[lower-alpha 5] 52%
Data for Progress[upper-alpha 2] January 16–21, 2020 684 (LV) ± 6.5% 8% 3% 4% 18% 3% 13% 12% 4%[lower-alpha 6] 34%[lower-alpha 7]
Texas Lyceum January 10–19, 2020 401 (LV) ± 4.89% 5% 6% 4% 11% 5% 7% 8% 35%[lower-alpha 8] 19%
December 6, 2019 Garcia announces her candidacy
Beacon Research (D) November 9–21, 2019 408 – 4% – – 6% 6% – 13% 58%[lower-alpha 9] –
University of Texas at Tyler November 5–14, 2019 427 ± 4.7% 7% 8% – 9% – 9% 8% 7% 52%
University of Texas/Texas Tribune October 18–29, 2019 541 ± 4.21% 3% 0% – 12% 6% 4% 5% 13%[lower-alpha 10] 57%
University of Texas/Texas Tribune August 29 – September 8, 2019 550 ± 4.17% 2% 2% – 11% 3% 3% 5% 2%[lower-alpha 11] 66%
Ragnar Research September 3–5, 2019 600 (LV) ± 3.9% 9% 10% – 12% – 10% 10% – 49%
August 12, 2019 Ramirez announces her candidacy
Emerson College/Dallas Morning News August 1–3, 2019 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 6.6% – 5.2% 9.9% – – 7.9% 19.1%[lower-alpha 12] 51.1%
July 22, 2019 West announces his candidacy
July 18, 2019 Edwards announces her candidacy
July 3, 2019 Bell announces his candidacy
April 23, 2019 Hegar announces her candidacy
Change Research April 18–22, 2019 1,578 ± 2.5% 5% – – 3% – 3% – 53%[lower-alpha 13] 33%
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 3] March 5–7, 2019 608 ± 4.0% – – – 4% 2% – – 65%[lower-alpha 14] 29%

Results
Initial round results by county
Democratic primary results[78]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic MJ Hegar 411,369 22.37%
Democratic Royce West 267,236 14.53%
Democratic Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez 244,004 13.27%
Democratic Annie "Mamá" Garcia 190,342 10.35%
Democratic Amanda Edwards 184,467 10.03%
Democratic Chris Bell 156,238 8.49%
Democratic Sema Hernandez 136,549 7.42%
Democratic Michael Cooper 90,990 4.95%
Democratic Victor Hugo Harris 59,018 3.21%
Democratic Adrian Ocegueda 40,929 2.23%
Democratic Jack Daniel Foster, Jr. 31,425 1.71%
Democratic D.R. Hunter 26,691 1.45%
Total votes 1,839,258 100.00%

Runoff

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 MJ
Hegar		 Royce
West		 Other Undecided
TargetPoint (R-Cornyn)[upper-alpha 4] July 8, 2020 830 (LV) ± 3.2% 39% 35% – 26%
Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler June 29 – July 7, 2020 829 (LV) ± 3.4% 35% 22% 11% 32%
Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler April 18–27, 2020 447 (RV) ± 4.6% 32% 16% 7% 44%
Data for Progress[upper-alpha 2] January 16–21, 2020 684 (LV) ± 6.5% 48% 19% – 33%
Ragnar Research September 3–5, 2019 600 (LV) ± 3.9% 26% 24% – 50%

Debates
Host
network		 Date Link(s) Participants
MJ
Hegar		 Royce
West
KXAN-TV June 6, 2020 [79] Present Present
KVUE June 29, 2020 [80] Present Present
Hypothetical polling
with MJ Hegar and Chris Bell
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 MJ
Hegar		 Chris
Bell		 Undecided
Ragnar Research September 3–5, 2019 600 (LV) ± 3.9% 28% 21% 50%
with MJ Hegar and Amanda Edwards
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 MJ
Hegar		 Amanda
Edwards		 Undecided
Data for Progress[upper-alpha 2] January 16–21, 2020 684 (LV) ± 6.5% 42% 16% 42%
with MJ Hegar and Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 MJ
Hegar		 Cristina
Ramirez		 Undecided
Data for Progress[upper-alpha 2] January 16–21, 2020 684 (LV) ± 6.5% 32% 33% 35%

Results
Runoff results by county
Democratic primary runoff results[81]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic MJ Hegar 499,005 52.14%
Democratic Royce West 458,019 47.86%
Total votes 957,024 100.00%

Other candidates

Libertarian Party

Candidates
Nominee
Eliminated in primary
Withdrawn

Results
Libertarian convention results
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Kerry McKennon
Libertarian Wes Benedict
Total votes 100.00%

Green Party

Nominee

People Over Politics Party

Withdrawn

Human Rights Party

Withdrawn

Independents

Withdrawn

General election

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[89] Likely R July 23, 2020
Inside Elections[90] Lean R July 10, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[91] Likely R August 5, 2020
Daily Kos[92] Likely R July 22, 2020
Politico[93] Lean R July 6, 2020
RCP[94] Lean R August 6, 2020
Niskanen[95] Lean R July 26, 2020
270towin[96] Likely R August 6, 2020

Endorsements
John Cornyn (R)
U.S. Congress members
Statewide officials
MJ Hegar (D)
Federal officials
Newspapers
Organizations

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 John
Cornyn (R)		 MJ
Hegar (D)		 Other Undecided
Rice University/YouGov August 4–13, 2020 892 (LV) ± 3.3% 44% 37% 6% 13%
Global Strategy Group/Latino Decisions (D) July 25–29, 2020 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 44% 43% – 13%
Morning Consult July 24 – August 2, 2020 2,576 (LV) ± 2.0% 44% 38% 4% 14%
Quinnipiac University July 16–20, 2020 880 (RV) ± 3.3% 47% 38% 3% 13%
Spry Strategies (R) July 16–20, 2020 750 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 37% 14% 2%
CBS News/YouGov July 7–10, 2020 1,179 (LV) ± 3.4% 44% 36% 5%[lower-alpha 15] 15%
Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler June 29 – July 7, 2020 1,677 (LV) ± 2.4% 42% 29% 5% 22%
Public Policy Polling June 24–25, 2020 729 (RV) ± 3.6% 42% 35% – 23%
FOX News June 20–23, 2020 1,001 (RV) ± 3.0% 46% 36% 6%[lower-alpha 16] 12%
Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler April 18–27, 2020 1,183 (RV) ± 2.9% 37% 24% 6% 34%
NBC News/Marist February 23–27, 2020 2,409 (RV) ± 2.5% 49% 41% 1% 10%
Beacon Research (D) November 9–21, 2019 601 (RV) – 44% 30% – 26%
Emerson College April 25–28, 2019 799 ± 3.4% 29% 12% 16%[lower-alpha 17] 44%
Hypothetical polling
with Royce West
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 John
Cornyn (R)		 Royce
West (D)		 Other Undecided
CBS News/YouGov July 7–10, 2020 1,182 (LV) ± 3.4% 43% 37% 4%[lower-alpha 18] 15%
Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler June 29 – July 7, 2020 1,677 (LV) ± 2.4% 43% 28% 6% 23%
FOX News June 20–23, 2020 1,001 (RV) ± 3.0% 47% 37% 6%[lower-alpha 19] 11%
Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler April 18–27, 2020 1,183 (RV) ± 2.85% 35% 24% 7% 34%
Beacon Research (D) November 9–21, 2019 601 (RV) – 45% 33% – 22%
with Chris Bell
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 John
Cornyn (R)		 Chris
Bell (D)		 Other Undecided
Beacon Research (D) November 9–21, 2019 601 (RV) – 45% 30% – 25%
with Sema Hernandez
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 John
Cornyn (R)		 Sema
Hernandez (D)		 Other Undecided
Beacon Research (D) November 9–21, 2019 601 (RV) – 45% 29% – 26%
with Beto O'Rourke
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 John
Cornyn (R)		 Beto
O'Rourke (D)		 Other Undecided
Beacon Research (D) November 9–21, 2019 601 (RV) – 46% 42% – 12%
Quinnipiac University February 20–25, 2019 1,222 ± 3.4% 46% 46% 1% 6%
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 3] February 13–14, 2019 743 ± 3.6% 47% 45% – 8%
Atlantic Media & Research (R)[upper-alpha 5] January 5–11, 2019 504 ± 4.4% 50% 37% – –
with generic Democrat
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 John
Cornyn (R)		 Generic
Democrat (D)		 Other Undecided
Univision/UH February 21–26, 2020 1,004 (RV) ± 3.4% 43% 41% – 16%
Data for Progress January 16–21, 2020 1,486 (LV) – 50% 42% 2%[lower-alpha 20] 7%
Beacon Research (D) November 9–21, 2019 601 (RV) – 46% 44% – 10%
Univision/UH August 1 – September 6, 2019 1,004 (RV) ± 3.4% 41% 40% – 19%
with generic Opponent
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 John
Cornyn (R)		 Generic
Opponent		 Other Undecided
Quinnipiac September 4–9, 2019 1,410 (RV) ± 3.1% – 23% 35%[lower-alpha 21] 43%[lower-alpha 22]
with generic Republican and generic Democrat
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Generic
Republican (R)		 Generic
Democrat (D)		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling June 18–19, 2020 907 (V) ± 3% 47% 45% 8%

Results
United States Senate election in Texas, 2020
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Republican John Cornyn (incumbent)
Democratic MJ Hegar
Libertarian Kerry McKennon
Green David B. Collins
Total votes 100.00%

Notes
Partisan clients
  1. Data for Progress had endorsed the Elizabeth Warren 2020 presidential campaign prior to the sampling period
  2. Data for Progress has endorsed the Elizabeth Warren 2020 presidential campaign
  3. Poll sponsored by Democracy Toolbox
  4. Poll conducted for John Cornyn.
  5. Poll sponsored by Courageous Conservatives PAC
Additional candidates and voter samples
  1. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. Michael Cooper with 4%, other with 1%
  3. Additional data sourced by FiveThirtyEight
  4. The five remaining candidates or "someone else" with 34%; refused with 6%
  5. Michael Cooper, Jack Daniel Foster Jr. and Victor Hugo Harris with 3%; D.R. Hunter with 2%; Adrian Ocegueda with 1%
  6. Michael Cooper with 2%; Victor Hugo Harris and Adrian Ocegueda with 1%; Jack Daniel Foster Jr., D.R. Hunter, and "not voting" with 0%
  7. Leaning towards no one candidate, but not leaning towards not voting
  8. Michael Cooper and Victor Hugo Harris with 5%; Adrian Ocegueda with 2%; Jack Daniel Foster Jr. and D.R. Hunter with 0%; other with 6%; none of the above with 17%
  9. Beto O'Rourke with 58%
  10. Michael Cooper with 4%; Jack Daniel Foster Jr. with 2%; Adrian Ocegueda with 1%; someone else with 6%
  11. Michael Cooper with 2%
  12. "Someone else" with 19.1%
  13. Joaquin Castro with 43%; Michael Cooper with 4%; Kim Olson, and Veronica Escobar with 3%; Sylvia Garcia, Clay Jenkins, and Sri Preston Kulkarni with 2%; Rafael Anchia and Lizzie Pannill Fletcher with 1%; Mark Strama with 0%
  14. Joaquin Castro with 42%, Wendy Davis with 19%, Michael Cooper with 4%
  15. "Someone else" with 4%; would not vote with 1%
  16. "Other" with 3%; would not vote with 3%
  17. "Someone else" with 16%
  18. "Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 1%
  19. "Other" and would not vote with 3%
  20. Would not vote with 2%
  21. "Would definitely not vote for Cornyn" with 35%
  22. "Would consider voting for Cornyn" with 30%; "Don't know/no answer" with 13%

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