2020 United States Senate election in New Hampshire

The 2020 United States Senate election in New Hampshire will be held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of New Hampshire, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen is running for reelection to a third term in office.

2020 United States Senate election in New Hampshire
November 3, 2020
 
Nominee TBD TBD
Party Democratic Republican
Incumbent U.S. senator

Jeanne Shaheen
Democratic
Elections in New Hampshire

The primary election is on September 8, 2020.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared
  • Tom Alciere, former State Representative, 2018 Libertarian Party candidate for NH-02 [1][2]
  • Paul J. Krautmann[2]
  • Jeanne Shaheen, incumbent U.S. Senator[3]

Endorsements
Jeanne Shaheen
Organizations

Results
Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Tom Alciere
Democratic Paul Krautman
Democratic Jeanne Shaheen (incumbent)
Total votes 100.0%

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared
  • Gerard Beloin, commercial roofer, part time ski instructor, 2018 Republican candidate for NH-02, 2016 Republican Candidate for the US Senate[2]
  • Don Bolduc, former U.S. Army Special Forces brigadier general[20]
  • Andy Martin, perennial candidate[21]
  • Corky Messner, lawyer and former U.S. Army soldier[22][23]

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements
Don Bolduc
Federal officials
  • Tom Cotton, U.S. Senator from Arkansas and former U.S. Representative (AR-04) (2013–2015)[34]
  • Bob Smith, former U.S. Senator from New Hampshire (1990–2003) and U.S. Representative (NH-01) (1985–1990)[35]
  • Michael Waltz, U.S. Representative (FL-06)[36]
  • Thomas E. White, former U.S. Secretary of the Army (2001–2004)[36]
State officials
  • Kevin Avard, former state senator (2014–2018) and state representative (2010–2012)[36]
  • Jim Coburn, former state representative (2004–2006) and Republican nominee in the 2006 New Hampshire gubernatorial election[36]
  • Susan DeLemus, former state representative (2010–2012, 2014–2016)[36]
  • Shaun Doherty, former state representative (2008–2012)[36]
  • William Fowler, state representative[36]
  • Bob Giuda, state senator and former state representative (2001–2007) and state House deputy majority leader (2003–2004)[36]
  • Gary Hopper, state representative[36]
  • Joseph Kenney, former executive councilor (2014–2019) and state senator (2003–2009)[37]
  • Gary Lambert, former state senator (2010–2012)[36]
  • Tim Merlino, state representative[36]
  • Michael Moffett, former state representative (2016–2018)[36]
  • Reed Panasiti, state representative[36]
  • Terry Roy, state representative[36]
  • Doug Scamman, former state representative (2004–2010) and state House speaker[36]
  • David Testerman, state representative[36]
  • Joshua Whitehouse, former state representative (2014–2016)[36]
  • Raymond Wieczorek, former executive councilor (2002–2012) and mayor of Manchester (1990–2000)[36]
Organizations
Individuals
Corky Messner
Federal officials
State officials

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Don Bolduc Corky Messner Undecided
The Tarrance Group/Corky Messner July 12–14, 2020 401 (LV) ±  5% 27% 39% –
Remington Research Group/Don Bolduc June 21–23, 2020 800 (LV) – 8% 17% 73%
Hypothetical polling
with Corey Lewandowski
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Don
Bolduc		 Corey
Lewandowski		 Bill
O'Brien		 Other Undecided
Emerson College September 6–9, 2019 379 (RV) ± 5.0% 9% 29% 7% 4%[lower-alpha 2] 56%
Vote Adjustments/WMUR September 5–6, 2019 402 (LV) ± 4.2% 9% 29% 6% 2%[lower-alpha 3] 49%
Remington Research (R)[upper-alpha 1] August 12–14, 2019 200 (RV) – 21% 21% 8% 2%[lower-alpha 4] 47%
Fabrizio (R)/Lewandowski[upper-alpha 2] August 11–12, 2020 400 (LV) – 11% 30% 10% – –

Results
Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Gerard Beloin
Republican Don Bolduc
Republican Andy Martin
Republican Corky Messner
Total votes 100.0%

Other candidates

Libertarian Party

Nominee
  • Justin O'Donnell, 2018 Libertarian candidate for US Congress, member of the Libertarian National Committee, National Guard veteran, libertarian activist, author and sales coach[46]

Progressive Bull Moose Party

Nominee
  • Thomas Sharpe V, firefighter and U.S. navy veteran[2][47]

General election

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[48] Safe D July 23, 2020
Inside Elections[49] Safe D July 10, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[50] Likely D August 5, 2020
Daily Kos[51] Likely D July 22, 2020
Politico[52] Likely D July 6, 2020
RCP[53] Lean D August 6, 2020
Niskanen[54] Safe D July 26, 2020
270towin[55] Safe D August 6, 2020

Polling
with Don Bolduc
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Jeanne
Shaheen (D)		 Don
Bolduc (R)		 Other /
Undecided
University of New Hampshire July 16–28, 2020 1,893 (LV) ± 2.2% 54% 35% 10%
University of New Hampshire June 18–22, 2020 932 (LV) ± 2.8% 51% 39% 11%
University of New Hampshire May 14–18, 2020 788 (LV) ± 3.2% 50% 39% 11%
University of New Hampshire February 19–25, 2020 576 (RV) ± 4.1% 49% 30% 22%
Remington Research (R)[upper-alpha 1] August 12–14, 2019 427 (RV) ± 4.7% 47% 42% 11%
Gravis Marketing August 2–6, 2019 505 (RV) ± 4.4% 51% 38% 11%
with Corky Messner
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Jeanne
Shaheen (D)		 Corky
Messner (R)		 Other /
Undecided
University of New Hampshire July 16–28, 2020 1,893 (LV) ± 2.2% 54% 35% 12%
University of New Hampshire June 18–22, 2020 932 (LV) ± 2.8% 50% 37% 13%
University of New Hampshire May 14–18, 2020 788 (LV) ± 3.2% 52% 34% 13%
University of New Hampshire February 19–25, 2020 576 (RV) ± 4.1% 52% 28% 21%
Hypothetical polling
with Corey Lewandowski
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Jeanne
Shaheen (D)		 Corey
Lewandowski (R)		 Other /
Undecided
American Research Group December 12–16, 2019 539 (RV) ± 4.2% 58% 35% 7%
Emerson College November 22–26, 2019 1,184 (RV) ± 2.8% 52% 40% 8%
American Research Group September 20–24, 2019 560 (RV) ± 4.1% 56% 34% 10%
Emerson College September 6–9, 2019 1,041 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 39% 12%
Remington Research (R)[upper-alpha 1] August 12–14, 2019 427 (RV) ± 4.7% 50% 37% –
with Bill O'Brien
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Jeanne
Shaheen (D)		 Bill
O'Brien (R)		 Other Undecided
University of New Hampshire February 19–25, 2020 576 (RV) ± 4.1% 51% 30% 5% 14%
Gravis Marketing August 2–6, 2019 505 (RV) ± 4.4% 52% 39% – 9%
with Chris Sununu
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Jeanne
Shaheen (D)		 Chris
Sununu (R)		 Undecided
Emerson College February 21–22, 2019 910 (RV) ± 3.2% 44% 44% 12%
YouGov/UMass Amherst February 7–15, 2019 600 (RV) ± 4.8% 45% 42% 10%
with Kelly Ayotte
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Jeanne
Shaheen (D)		 Kelly
Ayotte (R)		 Undecided
YouGov/UMass Amherst February 7–15, 2019 600 (RV) ± 4.8% 41% 36% 20%
with Generic Democrat and Generic Republican
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Generic
Democrat		 Generic
Republican		 Other Undecided
Saint Anselm College Jun 13–16, 2020 1,072 (RV) ± 3% 46% 43% 2% 8%
Saint Anselm College Apr 23–27, 2020 820 (RV) ± 3.4% 49% 42% 3% 6%

Results
United States Senate election in New Hampshire, 2020
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Democratic TBA
Republican TBA
Libertarian Justin O'Donnell
Progressive Thomas Sharpe V
Total votes 100.0%

Notes
Partisan clients
  1. Poll sponsored by Don Bolduc
  2. Poll sponsored by Lewandowski
Voter samples
  1. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. Messner with 4%
  3. Messner with 2%
  4. Messner with 2%

References
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Official campaign websites
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