2020 United States Senate election in Michigan

The 2020 United States Senate election in Michigan will be held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent Michigan. It will be held concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

2020 United States Senate election in Michigan
November 3, 2020
 
Nominee Gary Peters John James
Party Democratic Republican
Incumbent U.S. senator

Gary Peters
Democratic
Elections in Michigan

Incumbent Gary Peters is one of two Democratic U.S. Senators up for reelection in 2020 in a state President Donald Trump carried in 2016; the other is Doug Jones from Alabama.[1] The primary was held on August 4.[2] The filing deadline for candidates to run in the primary was April 21[3] but was extended to May 8 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.[4]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Declined

Endorsements
Gary Peters
Organizations

Results
Democratic primary results[28]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Gary Peters (Incumbent) 1,177,175 100.00%
Total votes 1,177,175 100.00%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Disqualified

Declined

Endorsements
John James
Individuals

Polling
Hypothetical polling
with Bill Schuette
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 John
James		 Bill
Schuette		 Undecided
Target Insyght April 22–25, 2019 296 (LV)[lower-alpha 2] – 59% 15% 26%

Results
Republican primary results[28]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican John James 1,002,235 100.00%
Total votes 1,002,235 100.00%

Other candidates

Communist Party
  • Frank Seldon Cupps (as a write-in candidate)[40]

Green Party

Nominee

Natural Law Party

Nominee

U.S. Taxpayers Party

Nominee
  • Valerie L. Willis (switched from Republican candidacy after being disqualified for the Republican primary)[33]

Independents

Withdrawn

General election

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[42] Lean D July 23, 2020
Inside Elections[43] Lean D July 10, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[44] Lean D August 5, 2020
Daily Kos[45] Lean D July 22, 2020
Politico[46] Lean D July 6, 2020
RCP[47] Tossup August 6, 2020
Niskanen[48] Safe D July 26, 2020
270towin[49] Likely D August 6, 2020

Endorsements
Gary Peters (D)
Federal officials
Organizations
Labor unions
John James (R)
Individuals
Organizations

Polling

Aggregate polls
John James vs. Gary Peters
Source of poll aggregation Dates administered Dates updated Gary Peters John James Other/Undecided[lower-alpha 3] Margin
Real Clear Politics July 18, 2020 – July 26, 2020 July 30, 2020 48.0% 38.6% Peters +9.4
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Gary
Peters (D)		 John
James (R)		 Other/Undecided
Tarrance Group (R) August 10–13, 2020 602 (RV) ± 4.1% 49% 44% 7%
Change Research/CNBC August 7–9, 2020 413 (LV) ± 4.6% 48% 45% 7%
EPIC-MRA July 25–30, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 50% 40% 10%
Public Policy Polling (D) July 28–29, 2020 876 (V) ± 3.2% 47% 39% 13%
Change Research/CNBC July 24–26, 2020 413 (LV) ± 4.8% 48% 44% 8%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies July 19–23, 2020 811 (LV) ± 3.2% 52% 35% 13%
Morning Consult July 17–26, 2020 1,320 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 35% 16%
CNN/SSRS July 18–24, 2020 927 (RV) ± 3.8% 54% 38% 8%
Gravis Marketing July 22, 2020 754 (LV) ± 3.6% 49% 39% 11%
Marketing Resource Group (R) July 19–21, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 34% 25%
FOX News July 18–20, 2020 756 (RV) ± 3.5% 48% 38% 15%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) (Hyperpartisan)[67] July 13–16, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 51% 40% 9%
Spry Strategies (R) July 11–16, 2020 600 (LV) ± 3.7% 47% 37% 15%
Change Research/CNBC July 10–12, 2020 824 (LV) ± 2.8% 50% 43% 6%[lower-alpha 4]
Public Policy Polling (D) July 9–10, 2020 1,041 (V) ± 3.2% 49% 42% 9%
Change Research/CNBC June 26–28, 2020 699 (LV)[lower-alpha 5] ± 3.9% 49% 42% 9%[lower-alpha 6]
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 1] June 26–27, 2020 1,237 (V) ± 3.2% 47% 39% 14%[lower-alpha 7]
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) (Hyperpartisan)[68][69][98][100] June 17–20, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 51% 38% 14%[lower-alpha 8]
NYT Upshot/Siena College June 8–17, 2020 610 (RV) ± 4.3% 41% 31% 29%[lower-alpha 9]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies June 14–16, 2020 826 (LV) ± 3.4% 50% 32% 18%[lower-alpha 10]
Marketing Resource Group (R) June 12–15, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 36% 30% 33%[lower-alpha 11]
American Greatness/TIPP (R) June 9–12, 2020 907 (RV) ± 3.3% 47% 35% 17%[lower-alpha 12]
Kiaer Research May 31 – June 7, 2020 543 (LV) ± 6.4% 48% 32% 20%[lower-alpha 13]
EPIC-MRA May 30 – June 3, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 51% 36% 13%[lower-alpha 14]
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 2] May 29–30, 2020 1,582 (V) ± 2.5% 48% 39% 13%[lower-alpha 15]
Change Research/Crooked Media May 11–17, 2020 3,070 (LV) ± 2.6% 48% 43% 9%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) (Hyperpartisan) [69][70][99][101][96] May 1–5, 2020 600 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 36% 17%
Public Policy Polling (D) April 28–29, 2020 1,270 (V) ± 3.2% 46% 37% 17%
FOX News April 18–21, 2020 801 (RV) ± 3.5% 46% 36% 13%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) (Hyperpartisan)[70] April 9–18, 2020 600 (LV) ± 3.0% 46% 37% 17%
Public Policy Polling (D) March 31 – April 1, 2020 1,019 (V) ± 3.1% 45% 38% 17%
Spry Strategies (R) March 30 – April 1, 2020 602 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 40% 18%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) (Hyperpartisan)[71][72][101][103][98] March 12–21, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 39% 13%
Marketing Resource Group (R) March 16–20, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 35% 13%
Firehouse/0ptimus March 5–7, 2020 550 (LV) ± 5.0% 40% 41% 11%
Quinnipiac University February 12–18, 2020 845 (RV) ± 3.4% 45% 39% 15%
Baldwin Wallace University January 8–20, 2020 1,023 (RV) ± 3.1% 42% 32% 26%
Glengariff Group January 3–7, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 40% 16%
Restoration PAC (R) (Hyperpartisan)[72][73][102][104][99] November 24–26, 2019 600 (LV) ± 3.0% 43% 44% 12%
Emerson College October 31 – November 3, 2019 1,051 (RV) ± 3.5% 46% 40% 14%
Hodas & Associates Restoration PAC (R) (Hyperpartisan)[73] October 10-16, 2019[lower-alpha 16] 600 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 35% 17%
Marketing Resource Group (R) October 7–10, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 40% 17%
Target-Insyght/MIRS News September 24–26, 2019 804 (LV) ± 3.5% 53% 37% 10%
Denno Research/Vanguard PA/PSC (D) September 21–24, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 40% 39% 21%
Target Insyght April 22–25, 2019 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 50% 36% 14%
Emerson College March 7–10, 2019 743 (LV) ± 3.5% 44% 43% 14%
Hypothetical polling

The following poll assumes neither Republican candidate would withdraw after their primary.

with Bob Carr and John James
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Gary
Peters (D)		 Bob
Carr (R)		 John
James (R)		 Undecided
Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes March 17–25, 2020 822 (RV) ± 3.8% 40% 6%[lower-alpha 17] 27% 28%
with Bill Schuette
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Gary
Peters (D)		 Bill
Schuette (R)		 Undecided
Target Insyght April 22–25, 2019 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 51% 32% 17%
with Gary Peters and Generic Republican
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Gary
Peters (D)		 Generic
Republican		 Undecided
Denno Research/Vanguard PA (D) May 8–10, 2019 600 ± 4.0% 42% 36% 21%
with Gary Peters and Generic Opponent
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Gary
Peters (D)		 Generic
Opponent		 Undecided
MRG Jun 12-15, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 19.2% 30.3%[lower-alpha 18] 50.5%
with Generic Democrat and Generic Republican
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Generic
Democrat		 Generic
Republican		 Undecided
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) June 17–20, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 50% 34% 16%[lower-alpha 19]
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) (Hyperpartisan) May 1–5, 2020 600 (LV) ± 3.0% 43% 38% 15%[lower-alpha 20]
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) (Hyperpartisan) April 9–18, 2020 600 (LV) ± 3.0% 40% 44% 16%[lower-alpha 21]
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) (Hyperpartisan) March 12–21, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 42% 12%[lower-alpha 22]

Results
United States Senate election in Michigan, 2020
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Democratic Gary Peters (incumbent)
Republican John James
Green Marcia Squier
Natural Law Doug Dern
U.S. Taxpayers Valerie Willis
Communist Frank Cupps (write-in)
Total votes 100.00%

Notes
  1. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. Sample size estimated by multiplying the total sample size with the percentage of it that identifies as Republican
  3. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  4. Undecided with 5%; would not vote with 1%
  5. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  6. Undecided with 7%; "would not vote" with 2%
  7. Undecided with 10%; "would not vote" with 4%
  8. Undecided with 12%; "Refused" with 2%
  9. Undecided with 24%; would not vote with 4%; "Another candidate" with 1%
  10. Undecided with 15%; "Third party/write-in" with 3%
  11. Undecided with 18.2%; "Someone else" with 13.7%; Would not vote with 1.5%
  12. Not sure with 13%; "Other" with 4%; "prefer not to answer" with 0%
  13. Undecided with 17%; "A different candidate" with 3%
  14. Includes "refused"
  15. "Third party" with 3%; Undecided with 10%
  16. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  17. The survey indicates the candidate is called 'Bob Barr', but this is assumed to be an error.
  18. "It is time for someone new" with 30.3% as opposed to "Peters deserves to be re-elected"
  19. Undecided with 15%; "Refused" with 1%
  20. Includes "Independent"
  21. Includes "Independent"
  22. Includes "Independent"
Partisan clients
  1. Progress Michigan is a non-profit that primarily supports Democratic candidates
  2. Progress Michigan is a non-profit that primarily supports Democratic candidates

References
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Official campaign websites
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