2020 United States presidential election in Arizona

The 2020 United States presidential election in Arizona is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate.[1] Arizona voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Arizona has 11 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]

Main article: 2020 United States presidential election
2020 United States presidential election in Arizona
November 3, 2020
 
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida Delaware
Running mate Mike Pence Kamala Harris
Incumbent President

Donald Trump
Republican
Elections in Arizona

Primary elections

Canceled Republican primary
Further information: 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries § Cancellation of state caucuses or primaries

On September 9, 2019, the Arizona Republican Party became one of several state GOP parties to officially cancel their respective primaries and caucuses.[3] Donald Trump's re-election campaign and GOP officials have cited the fact that Republicans canceled several state primaries when George H. W. Bush and George W. Bush sought a second term in 1992 and 2004, respectively; and Democrats scrapped some of their primaries when Bill Clinton and Barack Obama were seeking reelection in 1996 and 2012, respectively.[4][5] At the Arizona State Republican Convention in May 2020, the state party will formally bind all 57 of its national pledged delegates to Trump.[6]

Democratic primary

The Arizona Democratic primary took place on March 17, 2020. Former Vice President Joe Biden defeated Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and Hawaii Representative Tulsi Gabbard.

2020 Arizona Democratic presidential primary[7]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[8]
Joe Biden 268,029 43.70 38
Bernie Sanders 200,456 32.68 29
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn†) 35,537 5.79 0
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn†) 24,868 4.05 0
Tulsi Gabbard 3,014 0.49 0
Andrew Yang (withdrawn) 1,921 0.31 0
Julian Castro (withdrawn) 754 0.12 0
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) 668 0.11 0
Roque De La Fuente III 628 0.10 0
Deval Patrick (withdrawn) 242 0.04 0
Henry Hewes 208 0.03 0
Michael A. Ellinger 184 0.03 0
Total 536,509[lower-alpha 1] 86.72%[lower-alpha 2] 67

†Candidate withdrew after early voting started.

General election

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[10] Tossup July 23, 2020
Inside Elections[11] Tilt D (flip) July 17, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[12] Tossup July 14, 2020
Politico[13] Tossup July 6, 2020
RCP[14] Tossup August 3, 2020
Niskanen[15] Lean D (flip) March 24, 2020
CNN[16] Tossup August 3, 2020
The Economist[17] Lean D (flip) August 7, 2020
CBS News[18] Tossup August 9, 2020
270towin[19] Tossup August 2, 2020
ABC News[20] Tossup July 31, 2020
NPR[21] Tossup August 3, 2020
NBC News[22] Lean D (flip) August 6, 2020
538[23] Tilt D (flip) August 14, 2020

Polling

Aggregate polls

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
Source of poll aggregation Dates administered Dates updated Joe Biden Donald Trump Other/Undecided[lower-alpha 3] Margin
270 to Win July 14–26, 2020 July 30, 2020 48.2% 43.0% 8.8% Biden +5.2
Real Clear Politics August 3–10, 2020 August 13, 2020 47.0% 45.0% 8.0% Biden +2.0
FiveThirtyEight July 11–26, 2020 August 4, 2020 48.5% 45.1% 6.4% Biden +3.4
Average July 11–26, 2020 August 4, 2020 47.9% 44.4% 7.7% Biden +3.5

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 4]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Joe
Biden (D)		 Other Undecided
Emerson College Aug 8–10, 2020 661 (LV) ± 3.8% 45% 49% – 5%
Change Research/CNBC Aug 7–9, 2020 428 (LV) – 44% 45% – –
Trafalgar Group Aug 5–8, 2020 1,013 (LV) ± 2.9% 46% 45% 5% 4%
OH Predictive Insights Aug 3–4, 2020 603 (V) ± 4.0% 45% 49% – –
On Message/Heritage Action Aug 2–4, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 51% 48% – 2%
Data for Progress Jul 24 – Aug 2, 2020 1,215 (LV) – 44% 47% – 8%
43% 45% 3%[lower-alpha 5] 10%
Change Research/CNBC Jul 24–26, 2020 365 (LV) – 45% 47% – –
Morning Consult Jul 17–26, 2020 908 (LV) ± 3.3% 42% 49% – –
CNN/SSRS Jul 18–24, 2020 873 (RV) ± 3.8% 45% 49% 4%[lower-alpha 6] 2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Jul 19–23, 2020 858 (RV) – 38% 46% 6%[lower-alpha 7] 11%
NBC News/Marist College Jul 14–22, 2020 826 (RV) ± 4.1% 45% 50% 1% 3%
Public Policy Polling Jul 17–18, 2020 960 (RV) – 45% 49% – 6%
Spry Strategies Jul 11–16, 2020 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 45% 49% – 6%
Change Research/CNBC Jul 10–12, 2020 345 (LV) – 45% 51% – –
CBS News/YouGov Jul 7–10, 2020 1,087 (LV) ± 3.8% 46% 46% 4%[lower-alpha 8] 4%
OH Predictive Insights Jul 6–7, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 49% 0%[lower-alpha 9] 7%
Data Orbital Jun 27–29, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 45% 47% 3.3%[lower-alpha 10] 4.2%
Change Research/CNBC Jun 26–28, 2020 311 (LV) (LV)[lower-alpha 11] – 44% 51% – –
Gravis Marketing/OANN Jun 27, 2020 527 (LV) ± 4.3% 49% 45% – 7%
NYT Upshot/Siena College Jun 8–16, 2020 650 (RV) ± 4.3% 41% 48% 4%[lower-alpha 12] 8%
Civiqs/Daily Kos Jun 13–15, 2020 1,368 (RV) ± 2.9% 45% 49% 5%[lower-alpha 13] 1%
Change Research/CNBC Jun 12–14, 2020 201 (LV)[lower-alpha 14] – 44% 45% 5%[lower-alpha 15] –
Fox News May 30 – Jun 2, 2020 1,002 (RV) ± 3% 42% 46% 6%[lower-alpha 16] 5%
Change Research/CNBC May 29–31, 2020 329 (LV)[lower-alpha 17] – 45% 44% 9% 2%
HighGround Inc. May 18–22, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 45% 47% 4%[lower-alpha 18] 4%[lower-alpha 19]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies May 10–14, 2020 946 (LV) ± 3.2% 41% 45% 3%[lower-alpha 20] 10%
OH Predictive Insights May 9–11, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 43% 50% 1%[lower-alpha 21] 6%
GBAO Strategies/PLUS Paid Family Leave Apr 13–16, 2020 500 (LV) – 46% 47% 2% 5%
OH Predictive Insights Apr 7–8, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 52% – –
NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist College Mar 10–15, 2020 2,523 (RV) ± 2.7% 46% 47% 1% 5%
Monmouth University Mar 11–14, 2020 847 (RV) ± 3.4% 43% 46% 2% 6%
Univision Mar 6–11, 2020 1,036 (RV) ± 3.0% 42% 50% – 8%
OH Predictive Insights Mar 3–4, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 49% – 8%
Public Policy Polling Mar 2–3, 2020 666 (V) – 46% 47% – 6%
Climate Nexus Feb 11–15, 2020 539 (RV) ± 4.3% 46% 42% – 13%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Team McSally/Politico[upper-alpha 1] Jan 22–24, 2020 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1% 50% 45% – 6%
Public Policy Polling Jan 2–4, 2020 760 (V) – 46% 46% – 8%
OH Predictive Insights Dec 3–4, 2019 628 (LV) ± 3.91% 46% 44% 0%[lower-alpha 22] 10%
Emerson College Oct 25–28, 2019 901 ± 3.2% 50% 50% – –
NYT Upshot/Siena College Oct 13–23, 2019 652 (LV) ± 4.4% 46% 49% – –
Bendixen & Amandi International Sep 9–12, 2019 520 ± 4.3% 43% 42% 12% 3%
OH Predictive Insights Aug 13–14, 2019 600 ± 4.0% 43% 45% – 12%
Fabrizio Ward LLC July 29–31, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 50% 45% – 4%
OH Predictive Insights May 1–2, 2019 600 ± 4.0% 44% 49% – 7%
OH Predictive Insights Feb 12–13, 2019 600 ± 4.0% 46% 46% – 7%

Four-way race

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 4]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Joe
Biden (D)		 Jo
Jorgensen (L)		 Howie
Hawkins (G)		 Other Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Jun 14–17, 2020 865 (LV) ± 3.33% 39% 43% 2% 1% 2% 13%
Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 4]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Michael
Bloomberg (D)		 Other Undecided
Climate Nexus Feb 11–15, 2020 539 (RV) ± 4.3% 44% 45% – 11%
OH Predictive Insights Dec 3–4, 2019 628 (LV) ± 3.91% 47% 40% 0%[lower-alpha 23] 10%

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 4]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Pete
Buttigieg (D)		 Other Undecided
Climate Nexus Feb 11–15, 2020 539 (RV) ± 4.3% 44% 44% – 12%
Public Policy Polling Jan 2–4, 2020 760 (V) – 47% 44% – 9%
OH Predictive Insights Dec 3–4, 2019 628 (LV) ± 3.91% 45% 43% 0%[lower-alpha 24] 12%
OH Predictive Insights Aug 13–14, 2019 600 ± 4.0% 43% 38% – 18%
OH Predictive Insights May 1–2, 2019 600 ± 4.0% 46% 37% – 16%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Kamala
Harris (D)		 Other Undecided
Bendixen & Amandi International Sep 9–12, 2019 520 ± 4.3% 42% 38% 17% 1%
OH Predictive Insights Aug 13–14, 2019 600 ± 4.0% 45% 36% – 18%
OH Predictive Insights May 1–2, 2019 600 ± 4.0% 48% 39% – 13%
OH Predictive Insights Feb 12–13, 2019 600 ± 4.0% 49% 40% – 11%

Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 4]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Amy
Klobuchar (D)		 Undecided
Climate Nexus Feb 11–15, 2020 539 (RV) ± 4.3% 46% 39% 15%

Donald Trump vs. Beto O'Rourke

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 4]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Beto
O'Rourke (D)		 Undecided
OH Predictive Insights May 1–2, 2019 600 ± 4.0% 46% 40% 14%

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 4]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Bernie
Sanders (D)		 Other Undecided
NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist College Mar 10–15, 2020 2,523 (RV) ± 2.7% 48% 45% 2% 6%
Monmouth University Mar 11–14, 2020 847 (RV) ± 3.4% 44% 43% 4% 6%
Univision Mar 6–11, 2020 1,036 (RV) ± 3.0% 43% 48% – 10%
OH Predictive Insights Mar 3–4, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 38% – 16%
Public Policy Polling Mar 2–3, 2020 666 (V) – 47% 46% – 7%
Climate Nexus Feb 11–15, 2020 539 (RV) ± 4.3% 46% 44% – 10%
Public Policy Polling Jan 2–4, 2020 760 (V) – 47% 46% – 7%
OH Predictive Insights Dec 3–4, 2019 628 (LV) ± 3.91% 47% 34% 1%[lower-alpha 25] 18%
Emerson College Oct 25–28, 2019 901 ± 3.2% 51% 49% – –
NYT Upshot/Siena College Oct 13–23, 2019 652 (LV) ± 4.4% 49% 45% – –
Bendixen & Amandi International Sep 9–12, 2019 520 ± 4.3% 45% 37% 15% 1%
OH Predictive Insights Aug 13–14, 2019 600 ± 4.0% 44% 34% – 22%
OH Predictive Insights May 1–2, 2019 600 ± 4.0% 46% 37% – 16%
OH Predictive Insights Feb 12–13, 2019 600 ± 4.0% 49% 37% – 13%

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 4]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Elizabeth
Warren (D)		 Other Undecided
Climate Nexus Feb 11–15, 2020 539 (RV) ± 4.3% 47% 40% – 14%
Public Policy Polling Jan 2–4, 2020 760 (V) – 47% 45% – 9%
OH Predictive Insights Dec 3–4, 2019 628 (LV) ± 3.91% 47% 41% 1%[lower-alpha 26] 12%
Emerson College Oct 25–28, 2019 901 ± 3.2% 50% 50% – –
NYT Upshot/Siena College Oct 13–23, 2019 652 (LV) ± 4.4% 46% 47% – –
Bendixen & Amandi International Sep 9–12, 2019 520 ± 4.3% 42% 42% 10% 3%
OH Predictive Insights Aug 13–14, 2019 600 ± 4.0% 44% 43% – 13%
OH Predictive Insights May 1–2, 2019 600 ± 4.0% 47% 42% – 11%
OH Predictive Insights Feb 12–13, 2019 600 ± 4.0% 49% 38% – 12%
Hypothetical polling

Donald Trump vs. Generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 4]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Generic
Democrat		 Undecided
Univision Mar 6–11, 2020 1,036 (RV) ± 3.0% 41% 51% 7%
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 2] Jan 24–25, 2019 682 ± 3.8% 46% 50% 4%

See also

Notes
Partisan clients
  1. Poll sponsored by the McSally campaign
  2. Poll sponsored by 314 Action
Voter samples and additional candidates
  1. Total of candidates officially reported, of 613,355 ballots cast.
  2. Percentages reported by the Arizona Secretary of State do not add up to 100. This may be due to the fact that candidates who formally withdrew (Bennet, Bloomberg, Booker, Delaney, Klobuchar, and Steyer[9]) do not have their vote totals officially reported.[7]
  3. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  4. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  5. "Jo Jorgensen" 2%; "Howie Hawkins" 1%
  6. "Other" with 1%; "Neither" 3%
  7. "Jo Jorgensen" with 2%; "Howie Hawkins" 1%; "Kayne West" 2%; "Another Third Party/Write-In" 1%
  8. "Someone else/third party" with 4%; would not vote with 0%
  9. "Refused" with 0%
  10. "Other" with 3.1%; "refused" with 0.2%
  11. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  12. "Another candidate" and would not vote with 2%
  13. "Someone else" with 5%
  14. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  15. "Libertarian Party candidate/Green Party candidate" with 5%
  16. "Other" with 5%; would not vote with 1%
  17. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  18. "Some other candidate" with 4.3%
  19. Includes "refused"
  20. "Third party/write-in" with 3%
  21. "Refused" with 1%
  22. Refused with 0%
  23. Refused with 0%
  24. Refused with 0%
  25. Refused with 1%
  26. Refused with 1%

References
  1. Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  2. "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. Stone, Kevin (September 9, 2019). "Arizona GOP won't hold 2020 presidential preference election". KTAR. Retrieved September 11, 2019.
  4. Karni, Annie (September 6, 2019). "GOP plans to drop presidential primaries in 4 states to impede Trump challengers". Boston Globe. MSN. Retrieved September 7, 2019.
  5. Steakin, Will; Karson, Kendall (September 6, 2019). "GOP considers canceling at least 3 GOP primaries and caucuses, Trump challengers outraged". ABC News. Retrieved September 7, 2019.
  6. "Arizona Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved February 20, 2020.
  7. "Arizona Election Results". results.arizona.vote. Arizona Secretary of State. Retrieved March 20, 2020.
  8. "2020 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions: Arizona Democrat". The Green Papers. Retrieved 4 July 2020.
  9. "Running for Federal Office, Arizona Secretary of State". azsos.gov. Arizona Secretary of State. Retrieved March 20, 2020.
  10. "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
  11. "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
  12. "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
  13. "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  14. "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  15. 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
  16. David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved 2020-06-16.
  17. "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved 7 July 2020.
  18. "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  19. "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
  20. "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  21. "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved 2020-08-03.
  22. "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved 2020-08-06.
  23. "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved 14 August 2020.
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