2020 United States Senate election in North Carolina
The 2020 United States Senate election in North Carolina will be held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of North Carolina, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. North Carolina is one of just five states holding presidential, gubernatorial, and senatorial elections concurrently in 2020. On March 3, 2020, incumbent Thom Tillis and former State Senator Cal Cunningham won their respective parties' primaries.[1] The winner will immediately become the state's senior senator following the retirement of Richard Burr in 2023.
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Mayoral elections
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Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Thom Tillis, incumbent U.S. Senator[2]
Eliminated in primary
- Larry Holmquist, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016[3]
- Sharon Hudson, activist[3]
- Paul Wright, former North Carolina Superior Court judge, perennial candidate, and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016[3]
Withdrawn
- Sandy Smith, farm owner[4] (running for U.S. House in NC-01)
- Garland Tucker, former CEO and chairman of Triangle Capital[5]
Declined
- Mark Meadows, former U.S. Representative for North Carolina's 11th congressional district[6]
- Ted Budd, incumbent U.S. Representative for North Carolina's 13th congressional district[7]
- Mark Walker, incumbent U.S. Representative for North Carolina's 6th congressional district[8]
Endorsements
Thom Tillis |
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Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Sandy Smith |
Thom Tillis |
Garland Tucker |
Paul Wright |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
High Point University | February 21–28, 2020 | 247 (LV) | – | – | 69% | – | 8% | 8%[lower-alpha 2] | 16% |
444 (RV) | – | – | 58% | – | 7% | 10%[lower-alpha 3] | 26% | ||
Meredith College | February 16–24, 2020 | 353 | ± 3.0% | – | 53% | – | 5% | 6%[lower-alpha 4] | 36% |
SurveyUSA | February 13–16, 2020 | 501 | ± 5.0% | – | 59% | – | 3% | 8%[lower-alpha 5] | 29% |
High Point University | January 31 – February 6, 2020 | 198 (LV) | – | – | 62% | – | 7% | 5%[lower-alpha 6] | 27% |
400 (RV) | – | – | 52% | – | 6% | 5%[lower-alpha 7] | 38% | ||
Smith withdraws from the race; Wright announces his candidacy | |||||||||
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) | December 2–4, 2019 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.38% | 11%[lower-alpha 8] | 63% | – | – | – | 25% |
Tucker withdraws from the race | |||||||||
Fox News | November 10–13, 2019 | 574 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 4% | 54% | 11% | – | 5%[lower-alpha 9] | 26% |
Public Policy Polling | August 19–20, 2019 | 564 (V) | – | –[lower-alpha 10] | 38% | 31% | – | – | 31% |
Diversified Research (R)[upper-alpha 1] | July 8–9, 2019 | 500 | – | – | 40% | 30% | – | – | 30% |
Hypothetical polling | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
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Republican | Thom Tillis (incumbent) | 608,943 | 78.08% | |
Republican | Paul Wright | 58,908 | 7.55% | |
Republican | Larry Holmquist | 57,356 | 7.35% | |
Republican | Sharon Y. Hudson | 54,651 | 7.01% | |
Total votes | 779,858 | 100.0% |
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Cal Cunningham, former state senator and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010[12]
Eliminated in primary
- Trevor Fuller, Mecklenburg County commissioner[13]
- Atul Goel, physician and retired United States Air Force officer[14]
- Erica D. Smith, state senator[15]
- Steve Swenson[14]
Withdrawn
- Katherine Bell-Moore[16]
- Eva F. Lee, attorney[17] (running for North Carolina Commissioner of Labor)[18]
- Eric L. Mansfield, former state senator[19]
- Steve Williams[16]
Declined
- Janet Cowell, former North Carolina State Treasurer[20] (endorsed Cunningham)
- Anthony Foxx, former U.S. Secretary of Transportation and former mayor of Charlotte[20] (endorsed Cunningham)
- Rachel Hunt, state representative[20]
- Jeff Jackson, state senator[21] (endorsed Cunningham)
- Vi Lyles, mayor of Charlotte[22]
- Dan McCready, former U.S. Marine, businessman, and nominee for North Carolina's 9th congressional district in 2018 and 2019 special election[20][23] (endorsed Cunningham)
- Richard H. Moore, former North Carolina State Treasurer[24]
- Deborah K. Ross, former state representative and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2016[25][26] (running for North Carolina's 2nd congressional district)
- Thomas W. Ross, former president of the University of North Carolina system[27]
- Josh Stein, North Carolina Attorney General[28] (running for reelection)
- Brian Turner, state representative[20]
Endorsements
Cal Cunningham |
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Erica D. Smith |
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Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Cal Cunningham |
Trevor Fuller |
Atul Goel |
Erica Smith |
Steve Swenson |
Undecided |
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High Point University | February 21–28, 2020 | 274 (LV) | – | 50% | 4% | 1% | 24% | 3% | 18% |
474 (RV) | – | 42% | 5% | 1% | 24% | 4% | 4% | ||
Civitas Institute/Spry Strategies | February 26–27, 2020 | 587 | ± 4.1% | 45% | 2% | 1% | 23% | 1% | 28% |
NBC News/Marist | February 23–27, 2020 | 568 | ± 5.1% | 51% | 3% | 1% | 18% | 2% | 25% |
Public Policy Polling | February 23–24, 2020 | 852 | ± 3.4% | 45% | 4% | 1% | 18% | 2% | 30% |
Meredith College | February 16–24, 2020 | 429 | ± 3.0% | 43% | 2% | 1% | 14% | 2% | 36% |
Civitas Institute/Spry Strategies | February 21–23, 2020 | 553 | ± 3.8% | 48% | 1% | 0% | 21% | 1% | 29% |
SurveyUSA | February 13–16, 2020 | 698 | ± 4.9% | 42% | 3% | 1% | 17% | 3% | 34% |
High Point University | January 31 – February 6, 2020 | 224 (LV) | – | 37% | 4% | 0% | 11% | 4% | 44% |
397 (RV) | – | 29% | 5% | 1% | 10% | 5% | 50% | ||
Public Policy Polling | February 4–5, 2020 | 604 | – | 29% | 3% | 2% | 10% | 4% | 52% |
Public Policy Polling | January 10–12, 2020 | 509 | – | 22% | 2% | 3% | 12% | 1% | 60% |
FOX News | November 10–13, 2019 | 669 | ± 4.0% | 13% | 10% | – | 18% | – | 49% |
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
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Democratic | Cal Cunningham | 717,941 | 56.93% | |
Democratic | Erica D. Smith | 438,969 | 34.81% | |
Democratic | Trevor M. Fuller | 48,168 | 3.82% | |
Democratic | Steve Swenson | 33,741 | 2.68% | |
Democratic | Atul Goel | 22,226 | 1.76% | |
Total votes | 1,261,045 | 100.0% |
Other candidates
Libertarian Party
Nominee
- Shannon Bray, U.S. Navy veteran, author, and candidate for North Carolina's 3rd congressional district in 2019[47]
Constitution Party
Nominee
- Kevin E. Hayes, candidate for the North Carolina House of Representatives in 2012 and 2018[48]
Independence Party
General election
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
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The Cook Political Report[51] | Tossup | July 23, 2020 |
Inside Elections[52] | Tossup | July 10, 2020 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[53] | Tossup | August 5, 2020 |
Daily Kos[54] | Tossup | July 22, 2020 |
Politico[55] | Tossup | July 6, 2020 |
RCP[56] | Tossup | August 6, 2020 |
Niskanen[57] | Lean D (flip) | July 26, 2020 |
270towin[58] | Lean D (flip) | August 6, 2020 |
Endorsements
Thom Tillis (R) |
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Fundraising
In the first quarter of 2020, Cunningham outraised Tillis for the first time, receiving $4.4 million compared to the $2.1 million Tillis raised. Tillis's prior fundraising, however, left him with the advantage in cash on hand, with $6.5 million in the bank, compared to Cunningham's $3 million.[83]
Polling
Aggregate polls
Cal Cunningham vs. Thom Tillis | ||||||
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Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Cal Cunningham | Thom Tillis | Other/Undecided[lower-alpha 20] | Margin |
270 to Win | July 15, 2020 - August 02, 2020 | August 07, 2020 | 47.2% | 39.0% | Cunningham +8.2% | |
Real Clear Politics | July 7, 2020 – July 26, 2020 | August 01, 2020 | 49.7% | 40.0% | Cunningham +9.7% |
Tillis vs. Cunningham
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Thom Tillis (R) |
Cal Cunningham (D) |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College | August 8–10, 2020 | 673 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 42% | 44% | 12% |
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) | August 6–10, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 38% | 41% | 20% |
Change Research/CNBC | August 7–9, 2020 | 491 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 43% | 48% | 10% |
Public Policy Polling | July 30–31, 2020 | 934 (V) | ± 3.2% | 44% | 48% | 8% |
Data for Progress | July 24 – August 2, 2020 | 1,170 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 41% | 49% | 10% |
CBS News/YouGov | July 28–31, 2020 | 1,152 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 39% | 48% | 12% |
HIT Strategies | July 23–31, 2020 | 400 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 32% | 48% | 21% |
Change Research/CNBC | July 24–26, 2020 | 284 (LV) | ± 5.6% | 40% | 52% | 8% |
Morning Consult | July 17–26, 2020 | 1,504 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 37% | 46% | 17% |
Cardinal Point Analytics (R) | July 22–24, 2020 | 735 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 43% | 43% | 14% |
Public Policy Polling | July 22–23, 2020 | 939 (V) | ± 3.2% | 40% | 48% | 13% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | July 19–23, 2020 | 919 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 36% | 47% | 17% |
NBC News/Marist | July 14–22, 2020 | 882 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 50% | 9% |
Spry Strategies (R) | July 11–16, 2020 | 750 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 40% | 40% | 20% |
Cardinal Point Analytics (R) | July 13–15, 2020 | 547 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 44% | 47% | 8% |
Change Research/CNBC | July 10–12, 2020 | 655 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 42% | 49% | 9%[lower-alpha 21] |
Public Policy Polling | July 7–8, 2020 | 818 (V) | ± 3.4% | 39% | 47% | 15%[lower-alpha 22] |
Change Research/CNBC | June 26–28, 2020 | 468 (LV)[lower-alpha 23] | ± 3.9% | 41% | 51% | 8%[lower-alpha 24] |
East Carolina University | June 22–25, 2020 | 1,149 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 41% | 41% | 18%[lower-alpha 25] |
Public Policy Polling | June 22–23, 2020 | 1,157 (V) | ± 2.9% | 40% | 44% | 16%[lower-alpha 26] |
FOX News | June 20–23, 2020 | 1,012 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 37% | 39% | 23%[lower-alpha 27] |
NYT Upshot/Siena College | June 8–18, 2020 | 653 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 39% | 42% | 19%[lower-alpha 28] |
Gravis Marketing (R)[upper-alpha 3] | June 17, 2020 | 631 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 46% | 45% | 9% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | June 14–17, 2020 | 902 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 36% | 45% | 19%[lower-alpha 29] |
Public Policy Polling | June 2–3, 2020 | 913 (V) | ± 3.2% | 41% | 43% | 16%[lower-alpha 30] |
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) | May 26–28, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 38% | 36% | 26%[lower-alpha 31] |
Meeting Street Insights (R) | May 9–13, 2020 | 500 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 44% | 46% | 8%[lower-alpha 32] |
East Carolina University | May 7–9, 2020 | 1,111 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 40% | 41% | 19%[lower-alpha 33] |
Civiqs/Daily Kos (D) | May 2–4, 2020 | 1,362 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 50% | 9%[lower-alpha 34] |
Meredith College | April 27–28, 2020 | 604 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 34% | 44% | 22% |
SurveyUSA | April 23–26, 2020 | 580 (LV) | ± 5.5% | 39% | 41% | 20% |
Public Policy Polling | April 14–15, 2020 | 1,318 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 40% | 47% | 13% |
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) | April 5–7, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 38% | 34% | 28% |
East Carolina University | February 27–28, 2020 | 1,288 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 44% | 42% | 14% |
NBC News/Marist | February 23–27, 2020 | 2,120 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 43% | 48% | 9% |
Public Policy Polling[upper-alpha 4] | February 25–26, 2020 [lower-alpha 35] | 911 (RV) | – | 41% | 46% | 13% |
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[upper-alpha 5] | January 11–15, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 44% | 8% |
ALG Research (D)[upper-alpha 6] | January 8–13, 2020 | 700 (LV) | – | 42% | 44% | 13% |
Meredith College | September 29 – October 7, 2019 | 996 (RV) | ± 3% | 33% | 33% | 32% |
Public Policy Polling[upper-alpha 6] | September 16–17, 2019 | 628 (V) | ± 3.9% | 43% | 45% | 12% |
Fabrizio Ward/AARP | July 29–31, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 42% | 17% |
Public Policy Polling[upper-alpha 7] | June 17–18, 2019 | 610 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 41% | 19% |
Hypothetical polling | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ± | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Thom Tillis (incumbent) | ||||
Democratic | Cal Cunningham | ||||
Libertarian | Shannon Bray | ||||
Constitution | Kevin E. Hayes | ||||
Total votes | 100% |
Notes
- Partisan clients
- Poll sponsored by the Garland Tucker campaign
- Poll conducted by the Club for Growth, a pro-Republican PAC
- Polling was sponsored by OANN.
- Poll sponsored by private client
- Internal poll
- Poll sponsored by End Citizens United, an organization that has exclusively endorsed Democratic candidates
- Poll sponsored by VoteVets.org
- Poll sponsored by Save My Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organisation
- Voter samples and additional candidates
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - Hudson with 8%; Holmquist with 5%
- Holmquist and Hudson with 5%
- Holmquist and Hudson with 3%
- Holmquist and Hudson with 4%
- Holmquist with 3%; Hudson with 2%
- Hudson with 3%; Holmquist with 2%
- If the only candidates were Smith and Tillis
- "None of the above" with 5%; "other" with 0%
- If the only candidates were Tillis and Tucker
- Standard VI response
- Response after pollster addresses respondents with talking points about Tillis
- Standard VI response
- Response after pollster addresses respondents with short biographies for Tillis and Walker
- Response after short biographies and talking points about Tillis
- Standard VI response
- Listed as "would consider another candidate in a Republican primary"
- Response after pollster addresses respondents with talking points about Tillis
- Listed as "would consider another candidate in a Republican primary"
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- Undecided with 7%; would not vote with 2%
- Undecided with 15%
- Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
- Undecided with 7%; "would not vote" with 1%
- Undecided with 10%; "Some other candidate" with 8%
- Undecided with 16%
- Undecided with 15%; Bray (L) and Hayes (C) with 3%; "other" and would not vote with 1%
- Undecided with 17%; "Another candidate" and would not vote with 1%
- Undecided with 16%; "Another third party/write in" with 3%
- Undecided with 16%
- Undecided with 21%; Bray with 3%; Hayes with 2%
- Undecided with 8%
- Undecided with 11%; "other candidate" with 8%
- Undecided with 5%; "Someone else" with 4%
- Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
- "It is time to give a new person a chance to do better" with 50% as opposed to "Thillis has performed his job as U.S. Senator well enough to deserve re-election"
- "Refused" with 3%
- Undecided with 14%; "Neither/other/independent" with 3%
- Undecided with 14%; "Neither/other/independent" with 3%
- Not yet released
- Undecided with 11%; "Neither/other/independent" with 4%
- Undecided with 17%; "Neither/other/independent" with 3%
- Undecided with 16%; "Neither/other/independent" with 5%
- Undecided with 19%; "Neither/other/independent" with 5%
- "Undecided" with 8%; "don't know/refused" with 3%
- Undecided with 18%; "Neither/other/independent" with 6%
- Undecided with 17%; "Neither/other/independent" with 5%
- Undecided with 15%; "Neither/other/independent" with 7%
- Undecided with 21%; "Neither/other/independent" with 4%
References
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- Boyum, Tim [@timboyumtv] (June 14, 2019). "NEW: Fmr State Treasurer Richard Moore tells me he has met with @SenSchumer and @dscc and is considering a run for U.S. Senate--no timetable on a decision. #ncsen #ncpol" (Tweet). Retrieved June 14, 2019 – via Twitter.
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- Arkin, James (March 13, 2019). "Senate recruiting notebook: Multiple Democrats eyeing Texas". Politico Pro. Retrieved March 13, 2019.
Tom Ross, the president of the Volcker Alliance and former president of the University of North Carolina system, is a potential candidate, according to North Carolina Democrats. Ross, who was mentioned as a possible Senate candidate in 2016 but declined to run, confirmed to POLITICO that people have talked to him about the race and he’s “considering what they have to say.”
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- "Serve America PAC endorses six new federal candidates". Serve America PAC. March 11, 2020.
- Kinnard, Meg (May 21, 2020). "Stacey Abrams endorses candidates in 7 US Senate contests". Associated Press.
- Cunningham, Cal (March 5, 2020). "Cal Earns Additional North Carolina Endorsements Following Decisive Primary Victory". Retrieved April 7, 2020.
- comedy, poopdogcomedy (April 23, 2020). "NC-Sen: Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D. IN) Helps Cal Cunningham (D) End Moscow Mitch's Reign Of Terror". Daily KOS.
- Merica, Dan (May 13, 2020). "Buttigieg highlights importance of local officials in first post-campaign endorsements". CNN. Retrieved May 14, 2020.
- https://www.bendthearc.us/pac
- "Equality North Carolina Releases Final Round Of 2020 Electoral Endorsements". Equality NC. April 23, 2020.
- "Everytown For Gun Safety Action Fund Endorses Cal Cunningham for U.S. Senate in North Carolina". Everytown. June 9, 2020.
- "2020 – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org.
- "In Key Senate Races, Giffords Backs Challengers in Iowa and North Carolina Taking on NRA-Backed Incumbents". Giffords.
- "Human Rights Campaign Endorses 40 House, 5 Senate Pro-Equality Leaders". Human Rights Campaign. May 18, 2020.
- "Meet the 2020 Candidates". Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs.
- "Former North Carolina State Senator and Candidate for U.S. Senate Earns Endorsement from Nation's Leading Pro-Choice Advocacy Group". replacementsltdpac. NARAL Pro-Choice America.
- "U.S. Senate - Education Votes". educationvotes.nea.org.
- "2020 Federal Endorsements - NOW PAC". nowpac.org.
- "Planned Parenthood Action Fund Endorses Cal Cunningham and Deborah Ross to Fight for North Carolinians in Congress". replacementsltdpac. Planned Parenthood Action.
- "Sierra Club Endorses Cal Cunningham". Calfornc.
- Bravender, Robin (Apr 26, 2020). "With first quarter fundraising surge, Cunningham outraises Tillis for the first time". ncpolicywatch.com. NC Policy Watch. Retrieved 2020-04-26.
External links
- Official campaign websites