2020 United States Senate election in North Carolina

The 2020 United States Senate election in North Carolina will be held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of North Carolina, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. North Carolina is one of just five states holding presidential, gubernatorial, and senatorial elections concurrently in 2020. On March 3, 2020, incumbent Thom Tillis and former State Senator Cal Cunningham won their respective parties' primaries.[1] The winner will immediately become the state's senior senator following the retirement of Richard Burr in 2023.

2020 United States Senate election in North Carolina

November 3, 2020
 
Nominee Thom Tillis Cal Cunningham
Party Republican Democratic

Incumbent U.S. senator

Thom Tillis
Republican


Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Thom Tillis
U.S. Presidents
U.S. Executive Branch Officials
  • John Bolton, former United States National Security Advisor[10]
Organizations

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Sandy
Smith
Thom
Tillis
Garland
Tucker
Paul
Wright
Other Undecided
High Point University February 21–28, 2020 247 (LV) 69% 8% 8%[lower-alpha 2] 16%
444 (RV) 58% 7% 10%[lower-alpha 3] 26%
Meredith College February 16–24, 2020 353 ± 3.0% 53% 5% 6%[lower-alpha 4] 36%
SurveyUSA February 13–16, 2020 501 ± 5.0% 59% 3% 8%[lower-alpha 5] 29%
High Point University January 31 – February 6, 2020 198 (LV) 62% 7% 5%[lower-alpha 6] 27%
400 (RV) 52% 6% 5%[lower-alpha 7] 38%
December 20, 2019 Smith withdraws from the race; Wright announces his candidacy
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) December 2–4, 2019 500 (LV) ± 4.38% 11%[lower-alpha 8] 63% 25%
December 2, 2019 Tucker withdraws from the race
Fox News November 10–13, 2019 574 (LV) ± 4.0% 4% 54% 11% 5%[lower-alpha 9] 26%
Public Policy Polling August 19–20, 2019 564 (V) [lower-alpha 10] 38% 31% 31%
Diversified Research (R)[upper-alpha 1] July 8–9, 2019 500 40% 30% 30%
Hypothetical polling
with Mark Walker
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Sandy
Smith
Thom
Tillis
Garland
Tucker
Mark
Walker
Undecided
WPA Intelligence (R)[upper-alpha 2] May 19–21, 2019 502 (LV) ± 4.5% 2%[lower-alpha 11] 40% 11% 17% 30%
2%[lower-alpha 12] 18% 8% 56% 16%
with only Thom Tillis and Mark Walker
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Thom
Tillis
Mark
Walker
Undecided
WPA Intelligence (R)[upper-alpha 2] May 19–21, 2019 502 (LV) ± 4.5% 43%[lower-alpha 13] 34% 23%
28%[lower-alpha 14] 64% 8%
21%[lower-alpha 15] 69% 10%
with Thom Tillis and Generic Republican
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Thom
Tillis
Generic
Republican
Undecided
WPA Intelligence (R)[upper-alpha 2] May 19–21, 2019 502 (LV) ± 4.5% 17%[lower-alpha 16] 18% 52%[lower-alpha 17]
7%[lower-alpha 18] 32% 57%[lower-alpha 19]

Results

Results by county:
  Tillis—80–90%
  Tillis—70–80%
  Tillis—60–70%
Republican primary results[1]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Thom Tillis (incumbent) 608,943 78.08%
Republican Paul Wright 58,908 7.55%
Republican Larry Holmquist 57,356 7.35%
Republican Sharon Y. Hudson 54,651 7.01%
Total votes 779,858 100.0%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Cal Cunningham
Federal officials
State officials
Local officials
Organizations
Newspapers
Individuals
Erica D. Smith
Federal officials
State officials
Newspapers
Organizations

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Cal
Cunningham
Trevor
Fuller
Atul
Goel
Erica
Smith
Steve
Swenson
Undecided
High Point University February 21–28, 2020 274 (LV) 50% 4% 1% 24% 3% 18%
474 (RV) 42% 5% 1% 24% 4% 4%
Civitas Institute/Spry Strategies February 26–27, 2020 587 ± 4.1% 45% 2% 1% 23% 1% 28%
NBC News/Marist February 23–27, 2020 568 ± 5.1% 51% 3% 1% 18% 2% 25%
Public Policy Polling February 23–24, 2020 852 ± 3.4% 45% 4% 1% 18% 2% 30%
Meredith College February 16–24, 2020 429 ± 3.0% 43% 2% 1% 14% 2% 36%
Civitas Institute/Spry Strategies February 21–23, 2020 553 ± 3.8% 48% 1% 0% 21% 1% 29%
SurveyUSA February 13–16, 2020 698 ± 4.9% 42% 3% 1% 17% 3% 34%
High Point University January 31 – February 6, 2020 224 (LV) 37% 4% 0% 11% 4% 44%
397 (RV) 29% 5% 1% 10% 5% 50%
Public Policy Polling February 4–5, 2020 604 29% 3% 2% 10% 4% 52%
Public Policy Polling January 10–12, 2020 509 22% 2% 3% 12% 1% 60%
FOX News November 10–13, 2019 669 ± 4.0% 13% 10% 18% 49%

Results

Results by county:
  Cunningham—70-80%
  Cunningham—60-70%
  Cunningham—50-60%
  Cunningham—40-50%
  Smith—40-50%
  Smith—50-60%
  Smith—60-70%
  Smith—70-80%
Democratic primary results[1]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Cal Cunningham 717,941 56.93%
Democratic Erica D. Smith 438,969 34.81%
Democratic Trevor M. Fuller 48,168 3.82%
Democratic Steve Swenson 33,741 2.68%
Democratic Atul Goel 22,226 1.76%
Total votes 1,261,045 100.0%

Other candidates

Libertarian Party

Nominee

Constitution Party

Nominee

Independence Party

Withdrawn

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[51] Tossup July 23, 2020
Inside Elections[52] Tossup July 10, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[53] Tossup August 5, 2020
Daily Kos[54] Tossup July 22, 2020
Politico[55] Tossup July 6, 2020
RCP[56] Tossup August 6, 2020
Niskanen[57] Lean D (flip) July 26, 2020
270towin[58] Lean D (flip) August 6, 2020

Endorsements

Thom Tillis (R)
U.S. Presidents
U.S. Executive Branch Officials
  • John Bolton, former United States National Security Advisor[10]
Organizations
Cal Cunningham (D)
U.S. Presidents
U.S. Senators, Representatives, and Federal officials
State officials
Local officials
Organizations
Newspapers
Individuals

Fundraising

In the first quarter of 2020, Cunningham outraised Tillis for the first time, receiving $4.4 million compared to the $2.1 million Tillis raised. Tillis's prior fundraising, however, left him with the advantage in cash on hand, with $6.5 million in the bank, compared to Cunningham's $3 million.[83]

Polling

Aggregate polls

Cal Cunningham vs. Thom Tillis
Source of poll aggregation Dates administered Dates updated Cal Cunningham Thom Tillis Other/Undecided[lower-alpha 20] Margin
270 to Win July 15, 2020 - August 02, 2020 August 07, 2020 47.2% 39.0% Cunningham +8.2%
Real Clear Politics July 7, 2020 – July 26, 2020 August 01, 2020 49.7% 40.0% Cunningham +9.7%

Tillis vs. Cunningham

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Thom
Tillis (R)
Cal
Cunningham (D)
Other /
Undecided
Emerson College August 8–10, 2020 673 (LV) ± 3.8% 42% 44% 12%
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) August 6–10, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 38% 41% 20%
Change Research/CNBC August 7–9, 2020 491 (LV) ± 4.4% 43% 48% 10%
Public Policy Polling July 30–31, 2020 934 (V) ± 3.2% 44% 48% 8%
Data for Progress July 24 – August 2, 2020 1,170 (LV) ± 3.2% 41% 49% 10%
CBS News/YouGov July 28–31, 2020 1,152 (RV) ± 3.8% 39% 48% 12%
HIT Strategies July 23–31, 2020 400 (RV) ± 4.9% 32% 48% 21%
Change Research/CNBC July 24–26, 2020 284 (LV) ± 5.6% 40% 52% 8%
Morning Consult July 17–26, 2020 1,504 (LV) ± 3.0% 37% 46% 17%
Cardinal Point Analytics (R) July 22–24, 2020 735 (LV) ± 3.6% 43% 43% 14%
Public Policy Polling July 22–23, 2020 939 (V) ± 3.2% 40% 48% 13%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies July 19–23, 2020 919 (LV) ± 3.2% 36% 47% 17%
NBC News/Marist July 14–22, 2020 882 (RV) ± 4.0% 41% 50% 9%
Spry Strategies (R) July 11–16, 2020 750 (LV) ± 3.5% 40% 40% 20%
Cardinal Point Analytics (R) July 13–15, 2020 547 (LV) ± 4.2% 44% 47% 8%
Change Research/CNBC July 10–12, 2020 655 (LV) ± 3.8% 42% 49% 9%[lower-alpha 21]
Public Policy Polling July 7–8, 2020 818 (V) ± 3.4% 39% 47% 15%[lower-alpha 22]
Change Research/CNBC June 26–28, 2020 468 (LV)[lower-alpha 23] ± 3.9% 41% 51% 8%[lower-alpha 24]
East Carolina University June 22–25, 2020 1,149 (RV) ± 3.4% 41% 41% 18%[lower-alpha 25]
Public Policy Polling June 22–23, 2020 1,157 (V) ± 2.9% 40% 44% 16%[lower-alpha 26]
FOX News June 20–23, 2020 1,012 (RV) ± 3.0% 37% 39% 23%[lower-alpha 27]
NYT Upshot/Siena College June 8–18, 2020 653 (RV) ± 4.1% 39% 42% 19%[lower-alpha 28]
Gravis Marketing (R)[upper-alpha 3] June 17, 2020 631 (RV) ± 3.9% 46% 45% 9%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies June 14–17, 2020 902 (LV) ± 3.3% 36% 45% 19%[lower-alpha 29]
Public Policy Polling June 2–3, 2020 913 (V) ± 3.2% 41% 43% 16%[lower-alpha 30]
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) May 26–28, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 38% 36% 26%[lower-alpha 31]
Meeting Street Insights (R) May 9–13, 2020 500 (RV) ± 3.8% 44% 46% 8%[lower-alpha 32]
East Carolina University May 7–9, 2020 1,111 (RV) ± 3.4% 40% 41% 19%[lower-alpha 33]
Civiqs/Daily Kos (D) May 2–4, 2020 1,362 (RV) ± 3.0% 41% 50% 9%[lower-alpha 34]
Meredith College April 27–28, 2020 604 (RV) ± 4.0% 34% 44% 22%
SurveyUSA April 23–26, 2020 580 (LV) ± 5.5% 39% 41% 20%
Public Policy Polling April 14–15, 2020 1,318 (LV) ± 3.4% 40% 47% 13%
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) April 5–7, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 38% 34% 28%
East Carolina University February 27–28, 2020 1,288 (RV) ± 3.2% 44% 42% 14%
NBC News/Marist February 23–27, 2020 2,120 (RV) ± 2.6% 43% 48% 9%
Public Policy Polling[upper-alpha 4] February 25–26, 2020 [lower-alpha 35] 911 (RV) 41% 46% 13%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[upper-alpha 5] January 11–15, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 48% 44% 8%
ALG Research (D)[upper-alpha 6] January 8–13, 2020 700 (LV) 42% 44% 13%
Meredith College September 29 – October 7, 2019 996 (RV) ± 3% 33% 33% 32%
Public Policy Polling[upper-alpha 6] September 16–17, 2019 628 (V) ± 3.9% 43% 45% 12%
Fabrizio Ward/AARP July 29–31, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 42% 17%
Public Policy Polling[upper-alpha 7] June 17–18, 2019 610 (RV) ± 4.0% 40% 41% 19%
Hypothetical polling
with Erica D. Smith
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Thom
Tillis (R)
Erica D.
Smith (D)
Undecided
Meredith College September 29 – October 7, 2019 996 (RV) ± 3% 33% 34% 17%
Emerson College May 31 – June 3, 2019 932 (RV) ± 3.1% 39% 46% 15%
with Generic Democrat
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Thom
Tillis (R)
Generic
Democrat
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 8] June 30 – July 1, 2017 1,102 ± 3.6% 44% 48% 8%
with Thom Tillis and Generic Opponent
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Thom
Tillis (R)
Generic
Opponent
Other Undecided
Fabrizio Ward/AARP July 29–31, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 26% 52%[lower-alpha 36] 3%[lower-alpha 37] 19%
with Generic Republican and Generic Democrat
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Generic
Republican
Generic
Democrat
Other/Undecided
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) May 26–28, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.38% 43% 40% 17%[lower-alpha 38]
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) April 5–7, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 41% 42% 17%[lower-alpha 39]
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) Released March 17, 2020 [lower-alpha 40] 44% 41% 15%[lower-alpha 41]
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) Released October 17, 2019 [lower-alpha 40] 40% 41% 20%[lower-alpha 42]
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) Released September 11, 2019 [lower-alpha 40] 37% 42% 21%[lower-alpha 43]
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) Released August 4, 2019 [lower-alpha 40] 39% 37% 24%[lower-alpha 44]
Fabrizio Ward/AARP July 29–31, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 44% 11%[lower-alpha 45]
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) Released June 10, 2019 [lower-alpha 40] 38% 38% 24%[lower-alpha 46]
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) Released May 5, 2019 [lower-alpha 40] 39% 39% 22%[lower-alpha 47]
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) Released March 17, 2019 [lower-alpha 40] 37% 40% 22%[lower-alpha 48]
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) Released February 13, 2019 [lower-alpha 40] 37% 38% 25%[lower-alpha 49]

Results

United States Senate election in North Carolina, 2020
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Republican Thom Tillis (incumbent)
Democratic Cal Cunningham
Libertarian Shannon Bray
Constitution Kevin E. Hayes
Total votes 100%

Notes

Partisan clients
  1. Poll sponsored by the Garland Tucker campaign
  2. Poll conducted by the Club for Growth, a pro-Republican PAC
  3. Polling was sponsored by OANN.
  4. Poll sponsored by private client
  5. Internal poll
  6. Poll sponsored by End Citizens United, an organization that has exclusively endorsed Democratic candidates
  7. Poll sponsored by VoteVets.org
  8. Poll sponsored by Save My Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organisation
Voter samples and additional candidates
  1. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. Hudson with 8%; Holmquist with 5%
  3. Holmquist and Hudson with 5%
  4. Holmquist and Hudson with 3%
  5. Holmquist and Hudson with 4%
  6. Holmquist with 3%; Hudson with 2%
  7. Hudson with 3%; Holmquist with 2%
  8. If the only candidates were Smith and Tillis
  9. "None of the above" with 5%; "other" with 0%
  10. If the only candidates were Tillis and Tucker
  11. Standard VI response
  12. Response after pollster addresses respondents with talking points about Tillis
  13. Standard VI response
  14. Response after pollster addresses respondents with short biographies for Tillis and Walker
  15. Response after short biographies and talking points about Tillis
  16. Standard VI response
  17. Listed as "would consider another candidate in a Republican primary"
  18. Response after pollster addresses respondents with talking points about Tillis
  19. Listed as "would consider another candidate in a Republican primary"
  20. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  21. Undecided with 7%; would not vote with 2%
  22. Undecided with 15%
  23. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  24. Undecided with 7%; "would not vote" with 1%
  25. Undecided with 10%; "Some other candidate" with 8%
  26. Undecided with 16%
  27. Undecided with 15%; Bray (L) and Hayes (C) with 3%; "other" and would not vote with 1%
  28. Undecided with 17%; "Another candidate" and would not vote with 1%
  29. Undecided with 16%; "Another third party/write in" with 3%
  30. Undecided with 16%
  31. Undecided with 21%; Bray with 3%; Hayes with 2%
  32. Undecided with 8%
  33. Undecided with 11%; "other candidate" with 8%
  34. Undecided with 5%; "Someone else" with 4%
  35. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  36. "It is time to give a new person a chance to do better" with 50% as opposed to "Thillis has performed his job as U.S. Senator well enough to deserve re-election"
  37. "Refused" with 3%
  38. Undecided with 14%; "Neither/other/independent" with 3%
  39. Undecided with 14%; "Neither/other/independent" with 3%
  40. Not yet released
  41. Undecided with 11%; "Neither/other/independent" with 4%
  42. Undecided with 17%; "Neither/other/independent" with 3%
  43. Undecided with 16%; "Neither/other/independent" with 5%
  44. Undecided with 19%; "Neither/other/independent" with 5%
  45. "Undecided" with 8%; "don't know/refused" with 3%
  46. Undecided with 18%; "Neither/other/independent" with 6%
  47. Undecided with 17%; "Neither/other/independent" with 5%
  48. Undecided with 15%; "Neither/other/independent" with 7%
  49. Undecided with 21%; "Neither/other/independent" with 4%

References

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  19. Campbell, Colin [@RaleighReporter] (July 5, 2019). "Just in: Former state Sen. Eric Mansfield announces he won't run for U.S. Senate after all. This leaves Cal Cunningham, Erica Smith and Trevor Fuller in the Democratic primary race #ncpol" (Tweet). Retrieved July 5, 2019 via Twitter.
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  24. Boyum, Tim [@timboyumtv] (June 14, 2019). "NEW: Fmr State Treasurer Richard Moore tells me he has met with @SenSchumer and @dscc and is considering a run for U.S. Senate--no timetable on a decision. #ncsen #ncpol" (Tweet). Retrieved June 14, 2019 via Twitter.
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  26. Murphy, Brian [@MurphinDC] (December 2, 2019). "Been a lot of speculation that Deborah Ross would jump into the newly created (as of now) NC02. Looks like she's running. Ross lost to Richard Burr in 2016 Senate race" (Tweet). Retrieved December 2, 2019 via Twitter.
  27. Arkin, James (March 13, 2019). "Senate recruiting notebook: Multiple Democrats eyeing Texas". Politico Pro. Retrieved March 13, 2019. Tom Ross, the president of the Volcker Alliance and former president of the University of North Carolina system, is a potential candidate, according to North Carolina Democrats. Ross, who was mentioned as a possible Senate candidate in 2016 but declined to run, confirmed to POLITICO that people have talked to him about the race and he’s “considering what they have to say.”
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  32. comedy, poopdogcomedy (Dec 30, 2019). "NC-Sen: Sen. Tim Kaine (D. VA) Helps Cal Cunningham (D) Get Ready To Defeat Thom Tillis (R)". Daily KOS.
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  62. https://jocoreport.com/national-right-to-life-and-nc-right-to-life-inc-endorse-thom-tillis-for-us-senate/
  63. Obama, Barack (August 3, 2020). "First Wave of 2020 Endorsements". Medium.
  64. Cunningham, Cal (March 4, 2020). "North Carolina Democratic Congressional Delegation Endorses Cal Cunningham". Retrieved April 7, 2020.
  65. Schnieder, Elena (May 1, 2020). "Klobuchar launches campaign to aid Senate, House Dems in 2020". Politico.
  66. "Serve America PAC endorses six new federal candidates". Serve America PAC. March 11, 2020.
  67. Kinnard, Meg (May 21, 2020). "Stacey Abrams endorses candidates in 7 US Senate contests". Associated Press.
  68. Cunningham, Cal (March 5, 2020). "Cal Earns Additional North Carolina Endorsements Following Decisive Primary Victory". Retrieved April 7, 2020.
  69. comedy, poopdogcomedy (April 23, 2020). "NC-Sen: Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D. IN) Helps Cal Cunningham (D) End Moscow Mitch's Reign Of Terror". Daily KOS.
  70. Merica, Dan (May 13, 2020). "Buttigieg highlights importance of local officials in first post-campaign endorsements". CNN. Retrieved May 14, 2020.
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  72. "Equality North Carolina Releases Final Round Of 2020 Electoral Endorsements". Equality NC. April 23, 2020.
  73. "Everytown For Gun Safety Action Fund Endorses Cal Cunningham for U.S. Senate in North Carolina". Everytown. June 9, 2020.
  74. "2020 – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org.
  75. "In Key Senate Races, Giffords Backs Challengers in Iowa and North Carolina Taking on NRA-Backed Incumbents". Giffords.
  76. "Human Rights Campaign Endorses 40 House, 5 Senate Pro-Equality Leaders". Human Rights Campaign. May 18, 2020.
  77. "Meet the 2020 Candidates". Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs.
  78. "Former North Carolina State Senator and Candidate for U.S. Senate Earns Endorsement from Nation's Leading Pro-Choice Advocacy Group". replacementsltdpac. NARAL Pro-Choice America.
  79. "U.S. Senate - Education Votes". educationvotes.nea.org.
  80. "2020 Federal Endorsements - NOW PAC". nowpac.org.
  81. "Planned Parenthood Action Fund Endorses Cal Cunningham and Deborah Ross to Fight for North Carolinians in Congress". replacementsltdpac. Planned Parenthood Action.
  82. "Sierra Club Endorses Cal Cunningham". Calfornc.
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Official campaign websites
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