2020 United States Senate special election in Georgia

The 2020 United States Senate special election in Georgia will be held on November 3, 2020, following Senator Johnny Isakson's resignation effective December 31, 2019. Governor Brian Kemp appointed Kelly Loeffler to serve as Isakson's replacement, effective January 6, 2020, until the special election.[1]

Not to be confused with 2020 United States Senate election in Georgia.

2020 United States Senate special election in Georgia
November 3, 2020
 
Nominee Kelly Loeffler Doug Collins
Party Republican Republican
 
Nominee Matt Lieberman Raphael Warnock
Party Democratic Democratic
Incumbent U.S. senator

Kelly Loeffler
Republican
Elections in Georgia

On November 3, 2020, per Georgia law, a special general election will take place on the same day as the regularly scheduled U.S. Senate election for the seat held by David Perdue. A primary election will not occur; instead, all candidates, regardless of party, will be placed on the same ballot. Party labels will be printed on the ballot and if no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote, the top two finishers will advance to a runoff election, to be held on January 5, 2021.[2]

Background

On August 28, 2019, Isakson announced that he would resign from the Senate effective December 31, 2019, due to his deteriorating health.[1] This triggered a special election to fill the remainder of his term. On September 17, 2019, Georgia Governor Brian Kemp launched a website inviting Georgia citizens to submit their résumés to be considered for appointment.[3] President Donald Trump advocated the appointment of Rep. Doug Collins.[4] Kemp appointed Republican Kelly Loeffler to fill the seat until the 2020 special election; she took office on January 6, 2020.[5]

Republican candidates

Declared

Withdrawn
  • Ervan Katari Miller, perennial candidate[11][12]

Declined

Endorsements
Kelly Loeffler
Federal officials
State officials
Organizations
Individuals
Doug Collins
Federal officials
State officials
Local officials
Organizations

Democratic candidates

Declared

Declined

Endorsements
Matt Lieberman
Federal officials
  • Joe Lieberman, U.S. Senator from Connecticut (1989-2013), Chair of the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee (2001, 2001-2003, 2007-2013), Attorney General of Connecticut (1983-1989), Member of the Connecticut Senate (1971-1981), Democratic party's nominee for Vice President in the 2000 United States presidential election (Independent)[68]
Individuals
Raphael Warnock
U.S. Representatives and Senators
State officials
County Officials
Local officials
Organizations
Individuals

Other candidates

Libertarian Party

Nominee

Green Party

Nominee
  • John "Green" Fortuin[12]

Independents

Declared

General election

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Doug
Collins (R)		 Matt
Lieberman (D)		 Kelly
Loeffler (R)		 Ed
Tarver (D)		 Raphael
Warnock (D)		 Other Undecided
SurveyUSA August 6–8, 2020 623 (LV) ± 5.3% 17% 13% 26% 3% 17% 2%[lower-alpha 2] 21%
HIT Strategies (D)[upper-alpha 1] July 23–31, 2020 400 (RV) ± 4.9% 18% 14% 22% 6% 14% 1%[lower-alpha 3] 23%
Monmouth University July 23–27, 2020 402 (RV) ± 4.9% 20% 14% 26% 5% 9% 8%[lower-alpha 4] 18%
Spry Strategies (R)[upper-alpha 2] July 11–16, 2020 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 20% 23% 19% 9% – – 20%
Battleground Connect (R)[upper-alpha 3] July 6–8, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 26% 15% 17% 5% 10% 2%[lower-alpha 5] 26%
Gravis Marketing (R)[upper-alpha 4] July 2, 2020 513 (LV) ± 4.3% 26% 11% 24% 9% 18% – 12%
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 5] June 25–26, 2020 734 (RV) ± 3.6% 23% 11% 21% 3% 20% – 22%
MRG (D)[upper-alpha 6] June 18–23, 2020 1,259 (LV) – 27% 13% 21% – 23% 5%[lower-alpha 6] 12%
Civiqs/Daily Kos May 16–18, 2020 1,339 (RV) ± 3.1% 34% 14% 12% 6% 18% 4%[lower-alpha 7] 12%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) May 4–7, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.38% 19% 17% 18% – 9% 11%[lower-alpha 8] 26%
Cygnal(R)[upper-alpha 7] April 25–27, 2020 591 (LV) ± 4.0% 29% 12% 11% 4% 11% 2%[lower-alpha 9] 31%
Battleground Connect (R)[upper-alpha 3] March 31 – April 1, 2020 1,035 (LV) ± 3.01% 36% 11% 13% 3% 16% 4%[lower-alpha 10] 17%
Battleground Connect (R)[upper-alpha 3] March 24, 2020 1,025 (LV)[lower-alpha 11] – 34% 18% 14% 5% 13% – 15%
Battleground Connect (R)[upper-alpha 3] March 21, 2020 1,025 (LV)[lower-alpha 12] – 32% 19% 15% 5% 12% – 18%
Battleground Connect (R)[upper-alpha 3] March 12, 2020 1,025 (LV)[lower-alpha 13] – 30% 18% 19% 5% 10% – 18%
Battleground Connect (R)[upper-alpha 3] March 7, 2020 1,025 (LV)[lower-alpha 14] – 29% 16% 20% 5% 12% – 18%
University of Georgia February 24 – March 2, 2020 1,117 (LV) ± 2.9% 21% 11% 19% 4% 6% 8%[lower-alpha 15] 31%
Battleground Connect (R)[upper-alpha 3] February 26–27, 2020 1,050 ± 3.0% 28% 5% 20% 3% 13% – 31%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[upper-alpha 8] February 17–20, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 19% 18% 20% –[lower-alpha 16] – 7%[lower-alpha 17] 21%
January 30, 2020 Warnock announces his candidacy
January 29, 2020 Collins announces his candidacy
January 10, 2020 Tarver announces his candidacy
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[upper-alpha 3] December 16–18, 2019 600 (LV) – 32% 42% 11% – — — 16%

Head to head matchups
Loeffler vs. Collins
Poll
source		 Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Kelly
Loeffler		 Doug
Collins		 Undecided
Gravis Marketing/OANN (R) July 2, 2020 513 (LV) ± 4.3% 28% 34% 37%
Public Policy Polling (D) December 12–13, 2019 711 (LV)[lower-alpha 18] — 16% 56% 27%
Loeffler vs. Lieberman
Poll
source		 Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Kelly
Loeffler (R)		 Matt
Lieberman (D)		 Other Undecided
Gravis Marketing/OANN (R) July 2, 2020 513 (LV) ± 4.3% 46% 39% – 15%
Civiqs/Daily Kos May 16–18, 2020 1,339 (RV) ± 3.1% 32% 44% 18%[lower-alpha 19] 6%
Loeffler vs. Tarver
Poll
source		 Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Kelly
Loeffler (R)		 Ed
Tarver (D)		 Other Undecided
Civiqs/Daily Kos May 16–18, 2020 1,339 (RV) ± 3.1% 32% 43% 20%[lower-alpha 20] 6%
Loeffler vs. Warnock
Poll
source		 Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Kelly
Loeffler (R)		 Raphael
Warnock (D)		 Other Undecided
Gravis Marketing/OANN (R) July 2, 2020 513 (LV) ± 4.3% 48% 37% – 15%
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 9] June 25–26, 2020 734 (RV) ± 3.6% 40% 43% – 17%
Civiqs/Daily Kos May 16–18, 2020 1,339 (RV) ± 3.1% 32% 45% 18%[lower-alpha 21] 6%
Battleground Connect (R)[upper-alpha 3] March 31 – April 1, 2020 1,035 (LV) ± 3.0% 40% 41% – 19%
The Progress Campaign (D) Mar 12-21, 2020 3,042 (RV) ± 4.5% 38% 38% – 24%
Collins vs. Lieberman
Poll
source		 Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Doug
Collins (R)		 Matt
Lieberman (D)		 Other Undecided
Gravis Marketing/OANN (R) July 2, 2020 513 (LV) ± 4.3% 46% 37% – 16%
Civiqs/Daily Kos May 16–18, 2020 1,339 (RV) ± 3.1% 44% 44% 7%[lower-alpha 22] 5%
Collins vs. Tarver
Poll
source		 Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Doug
Collins (R)		 Ed
Tarver (D)		 Other Undecided
Civiqs/Daily Kos May 16–18, 2020 1,339 (RV) ± 3.1% 45% 42% 8%[lower-alpha 23] 5%
Collins vs. Warnock
Poll
source		 Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Doug
Collins (R)		 Raphael
Warnock (D)		 Other Undecided
Gravis Marketing/OANN (R) July 2, 2020 513 (LV) ± 4.3% 47% 38% – 15%
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 10] June 25–26, 2020 734 (RV) ± 3.6% 43% 41% – 17%
Civiqs/Daily Kos May 16–18, 2020 1,339 (RV) ± 3.1% 44% 45% 6%[lower-alpha 24] 5%
The Progress Campaign (D) May 6–15, 2020 2,893 (LV) ± 2.0% 43% 41% – 16%[lower-alpha 25]
Battleground Connect (R)[upper-alpha 3] March 31 – April 1, 2020 1,035 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 36% – 15%
The Progress Campaign (D) March 12–21, 2020 3,042 (RV) ± 4.5% 41% 39% – 20%
Hypothetical polling
Loeffler vs. Broun
Poll
source		 Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Kelly
Loeffler		 Paul
Broun		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) December 12–13, 2019 711 (LV)[lower-alpha 26] — 27% 14% 59%
Collins vs. Abrams
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 27]		 Margin
of error		 Doug
Collins (R)		 Stacey
Abrams (D)		 Undecided
The Progress Campaign (D) March 12–21, 2020 3,042 (RV) ± 4.5% 43% 47% 10%
Loeffler vs. Generic Opponent
Poll
source		 Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Kelly
Loeffler		 Someone else Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) December 12–13, 2019 711 (LV)[lower-alpha 28] — 26% 30% 44%

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[97] Lean R July 23, 2020
Inside Elections[98] Lean R July 10, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[99] Likely R August 5, 2020
Daily Kos[100] Lean R July 22, 2020
Politico[101] Lean R July 6, 2020
RCP[102] Lean R August 6, 2020
Niskanen[103] Tossup July 26, 2020
270towin[104] Lean R August 6, 2020

Results
2020 United States Senate special election in Georgia
Party Candidate Votes %
Independent Al Bartell
Independent Allen Buckley
Republican Doug Collins
Green John Fortuin
Republican Derrick Grayson
Independent Michael Todd Greene
Republican Annette Davis Jackson
Democratic Deborah Jackson
Democratic Jamesia James
Republican Wayne Johnson
Democratic Tamara Johnson-Shealey
Democratic Matt Lieberman
Independent Rod Mack (write-in)
Republican Kelly Loeffler (incumbent)
Democratic Joy Felicia Slade
Libertarian Brian Slowinski
Independent Valencia Stovall
Democratic Ed Tarver
Republican Kandiss Taylor
Democratic Raphael Warnock
Democratic Richard Dien Winfield
Total votes 100.0

Notes
Partisan clients
  1. This poll’s sponsor, DFER, primarily supports Democratic candidates
  2. This poll's sponsor is American Principles Project, a 501 that supports the Republican Party.
  3. Internal poll for Collins
  4. Poll is sponsored by OANN, a far-right political talkshow.
  5. This poll is sponsored by End Citizens United, a PAC which has endorsed Democratic candidates who are against the landmark Citizens United court ruling.
  6. Steve Phillips, who sponsored this poll, is a senior fellow at the Democratic-leaning Center for American Progress
  7. Poll conducted for the Speaker of Georgia's House Republican caucus
  8. Internal poll for Loeffler
  9. This poll is sponsored by End Citizens United, a PAC which has endorsed Democratic candidates who are against the landmark Citizens United court ruling
  10. This poll is sponsored by End Citizens United, a PAC which has endorsed Democratic candidates who are against the landmark Citizens United court ruling
Voter samples and additional candidates
  1. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. "Third party candidate" with 1%
  3. "Third party candidate" with 1%
  4. "Other candidate" with 5%; Slowinski (L) with 3%
  5. "Someone else" with 2%
  6. "Other" with 3%; would not vote with 2%
  7. "Someone else" with 4%
  8. All other candidates with 5% or less
  9. "Another candidate who qualified to run but isn't listed" with 2%
  10. Bartell (I) with 2%; Slowinski (L) with 1%; "someone else" with 1%
  11. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  12. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  13. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  14. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  15. Johnson (R) with 4%; Winfield (D) with 3%; Bartell (I) with 2%; "refused" with 0%
  16. Democratic candidates have 31% of the vote combined
  17. Bartell with 5%; Johnson (R) with 2%
  18. Likely Republican primary voters, though there is no exclusively Republican primary for Georgia's special election
  19. "Someone else" with 18%
  20. "Someone else" with 20%
  21. "Someone else" with 18%
  22. "Someone else" with 7%
  23. "Someone else" with 8%
  24. "Someone else" with 6%
  25. Listed as "other/undecided"
  26. Likely Republican primary voters, though there is no exclusively Republican primary for Georgia's special election
  27. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  28. Likely Republican primary voters, though there is no exclusively Republican primary for Georgia's special election

References
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