2020 United States presidential election in Maine

The 2020 United States presidential election in Maine is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate.[1] Maine voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Maine has four electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2] Unlike all other states except Nebraska, Maine awards two electoral votes based on the statewide vote, and one vote for each congressional district. In the 2016 election, Maine split its vote for the first time since 1828, awarding one electoral vote to Donald Trump as he got the most votes in Maine's 2nd congressional district.[3]

Main article: 2020 United States presidential election

2020 United States presidential election in Maine

November 3, 2020
Turnout	%
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden Jo Jorgensen Party Republican Democratic Libertarian Home state Florida Delaware South Carolina Running mate Mike Pence Kamala Harris Spike Cohen
Incumbent President Donald Trump Republican

Maine will be the first state ever to use ranked-choice voting for the presidential general election, with voters able to rank their preferred candidates on the ballot.[4] Prior to 2019, no other American state thus far has used a voting system other than first-past-the-post or selection by the legislature to choose its presidential electors.

Primary elections

The primary elections were held on Super Tuesday, March 3, 2020.

Republican primary

Incumbent President Donald Trump ran unopposed in the Republican primary, and thus he received all of Maine's 22 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[5]

2020 Maine Republican primary[6]

Candidate	Votes	%	Delegates[7]
Donald Trump	95,360	83.85	22
Blank ballots	18,368	16.15	0
Total	113,728	100%	22

Democratic primary

In an electoral upset, moderate candidate Joe Biden won the state, which primary opponent Bernie Sanders previously won in 2016.

This section is an excerpt from 2020 Maine Democratic presidential primary[edit]

2020 Maine Democratic presidential primary[8]

Candidate	Votes	%	Delegates[9]
Joe Biden	68,729	33.37	11
Bernie Sanders	66,826	32.45	9
Elizabeth Warren	32,055	15.57	4
Michael Bloomberg	24,294	11.80
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn†)	4,364	2.12
Amy Klobuchar(withdrawn†)	2,826	1.37
Tulsi Gabbard	1,815	0.88
Andrew Yang (withdrawn†)	696	0.34
Tom Steyer (withdrawn†)	313	0.15
Deval Patrick (withdrawn†)	218	0.11
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn)	201	0.10
Cory Booker (withdrawn)	183	0.09
Blank ballots	3,417	1.66
Total	205,937	100%	24

† Candidate withdrew after early voting started.

Libertarian nominee

• Jo Jorgensen, Psychology Senior Lecturer at Clemson University

General election

Ballot access

Libertarian

The Libertarian Party was recognized by Maine as an official party in June 2016, but lost that status in December 2018. Consequently, Libertarian nominee Jo Jorgensen's only opportunity to appear on the ballot for the 2020 election is to appear as a nonpartisan candidate. To qualify for ballot access, Jorgensen must submit 4,000 petition signatures to the state by August 3. Jorgensen has sued the state for a reduction of the signature requirement, citing an increase in the difficulty of petitioning caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.[10]

Predictions

At-large

Source	Ranking	As of
FiveThirtyEight[11]	Likely D	August 12, 2020
The Cook Political Report[12]	Likely D	July 23, 2020
Inside Elections[13]	Safe D	July 17, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[14]	Lean D	July 14, 2020
Politico[15]	Lean D	July 6, 2020
RCP[16]	Likely D	August 3, 2020
Niskanen[17]	Safe D	March 24, 2020
CNN[18]	Safe D	August 3, 2020
The Economist[19]	Likely D	August 7, 2020
CBS News[20]	Likely D	August 9, 2020
270towin[21]	Likely D	August 2, 2020
ABC News[22]	Safe D	July 31, 2020
NPR[23]	Likely D	August 3, 2020
NBC News[24]	Likely D	August 6, 2020

1st district

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[25]	Safe D	July 23, 2020
Inside Elections[26]	Safe D	July 17, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[27]	Safe D	July 14, 2020
Politico[28]	Safe D	July 6, 2020
RCP[29]	Likely D	August 3, 2020
Niskanen[17]	Safe D	March 24, 2020
CNN[30]	Safe D	August 3, 2020
The Economist[31]	Safe D	August 7, 2020
CBS News[32]	Likely D	August 9, 2020
270towin[33]	Safe D	August 2, 2020
ABC News[34]	Safe D	July 31, 2020
NPR[35]	Likely D	August 3, 2020
NBC News[36]	Safe D	August 6, 2020

2nd district

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[37]	Tossup	July 23, 2020
Inside Elections[38]	Tossup	July 17, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[39]	Lean R	July 14, 2020
Politico[40]	Tossup	July 6, 2020
RCP[41]	Tossup	August 3, 2020
Niskanen[17]	Tossup	March 24, 2020
CNN[42]	Tossup	August 3, 2020
The Economist[43]	Likely D (flip)[lower-alpha 1]	August 7, 2020
CBS News[44]	Lean R	August 9, 2020
270towin[45]	Tossup	August 2, 2020
ABC News[46]	Tossup	July 31, 2020
NPR[47]	Tossup	August 3, 2020
NBC News[48]	Lean D (flip)	August 6, 2020

Polling

statewide with Donald Trump and Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Donald Trump (R)	Joe Biden (D)	Other	Undecided
Critical Insights	Jul 28 – Aug 9, 2020	500 (RV)		36%	44%	9%[lower-alpha 3]	9%
Quinnipiac University	Jul 30 – Aug 3, 2020	805 (RV)	± 3.7%	37%	52%	6%[lower-alpha 4]	4%
RMG Research	Jul 27 – Aug 2, 2020	500 (RV)	± 4.5%	39%	50%	7%	4%
Data for Progress	Jul 24 – Aug 2, 2020	866 (LV)	–	43%	53%	–	4%
				42%	49%	2%[lower-alpha 5]	7%
Public Policy Polling	Jul 23–24, 2020	962 (V)	–	42%	53%	–	5%
Colby College	Jul 18–24, 2020	888 (RV)	± 3.9%	38%	50%	5%	7%
Public Policy Polling	Jul 2–3, 2020	1,022 (V)	± 3.1%	42%	53%	–	5%
Public Policy Polling	Mar 2–3, 2020	872 (V)	± 3.3%	42%	52%	–	6%
Public Policy Polling	Oct 11–13, 2019	939 (LV)	± 3.2%	42%	54%	–	4%
Fabrizio Ward/AARP	Jul 29–31, 2019	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	44%	50%	–	5%
Gravis Marketing	Jun 24, 2019	767 (RV)	± 3.5%	46%	54%	–	–

Maine's 1st congressional district with Donald Trump and Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Donald Trump (R)	Joe Biden (D)	Other	Undecided
Critical Insights	Jul 28 – Aug 9, 2020	500 (RV)		33%	49%	10%[lower-alpha 6]	6%
Quinnipiac University	Jul 30 – Aug 3, 2020	–	–	30%	61%	6%[lower-alpha 7]	3%
Colby College	Jul 18–24, 2020	425 (LV)	–	35%	55%	–	–
Public Policy Polling	Oct 11–13, 2019	478 (LV)	–	38%	58%	–	3%

Maine's 2nd congressional district with Donald Trump and Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Donald Trump (R)	Joe Biden (D)	Other	Undecided
Critical Insights	Jul 28 – Aug 9, 2020	500 (RV)		38%	39%	10%[lower-alpha 8]	11%
Quinnipiac University	Jul 30 – Aug 3, 2020	–	–	45%	44%	6%[lower-alpha 9]	5%
Colby College	Jul 18–24, 2020	449 (LV)	–	42%	45%	–	–
Public Policy Polling	Oct 11–13, 2019	461 (LV)	–	46%	49%	–	4%

Former candidates

with Donald Trump and Pete Buttigieg Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Pete Buttigieg (D) Undecided Public Policy Polling Oct 11–13, 2019 939 (LV) ± 3.2% 43% 52% 5% Gravis Marketing Jun 24, 2019 767 (RV) ± 3.5% 49% 51% – with Donald Trump and Kamala Harris Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Kamala Harris (D) Undecided Public Policy Polling Oct 11–13, 2019 939 (LV) ± 3.2% 44% 50% 6% Gravis Marketing Jun 24, 2019 767 (RV) ± 3.5% 48% 52% – with Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Bernie Sanders (D) Undecided Public Policy Polling Mar 2–3, 2020 872 (V) ± 3.3% 42% 52% 7% Public Policy Polling Oct 11–13, 2019 939 (LV) ± 3.2% 43% 53% 4% Gravis Marketing Jun 24, 2019 767 (RV) ± 3.5% 47% 53% – with Donald Trump and Elizabeth Warren Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Elizabeth Warren (D) Undecided Public Policy Polling Oct 11–13, 2019 939 (LV) ± 3.2% 43% 53% 4% Gravis Marketing Jun 24, 2019 767 (RV) ± 3.5% 48% 52% – with Pete Buttigieg in Maine's 1st congressional district Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Pete Buttigieg (D) Undecided Public Policy Polling Oct 11–13, 2019 478 (LV) – 38% 58% 3% with Kamala Harris in Maine's 1st congressional district Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Kamala Harris (D) Undecided Public Policy Polling Oct 11–13, 2019 478 (LV) – 39% 57% 4% with Bernie Sanders in Maine's 1st congressional district Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Bernie Sanders (D) Undecided Public Policy Polling Oct 11–13, 2019 478 (LV) – 39% 57% 4% with Elizabeth Warren in Maine's 1st congressional district Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Elizabeth Warren (D) Undecided Public Policy Polling Oct 11–13, 2019 478 (LV) – 39% 57% 3% with Pete Buttigieg in Maine's 2nd congressional district Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Pete Buttigieg (D) Undecided Public Policy Polling Oct 11–13, 2019 461 (LV) – 49% 44% 7% with Kamala Harris in Maine's 2nd congressional district Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Kamala Harris (D) Undecided Public Policy Polling Oct 11–13, 2019 461 (LV) – 49% 43% 8% with Bernie Sanders in Maine's 2nd congressional district Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Bernie Sanders (D) Undecided Public Policy Polling Oct 11–13, 2019 461 (LV) – 47% 49% 4% with Elizabeth Warren in Maine's 2nd congressional district Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Elizabeth Warren (D) Undecided Public Policy Polling Oct 11–13, 2019 461 (LV) – 48% 47% 5%

Hypothetical polling

with Generic Democrat Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Generic Democrat (D) Undecided Colby College/SocialSphere Feb 10–13, 2020 1,008 (LV) ± 3.1% 34% 37% 30%[lower-alpha 10] with Generic Democrat in Maine's 1st congressional district Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Generic Democrat (D) Undecided Colby College/SocialSphere Feb 10–13, 2020 515 (LV) – 28% 41% 31%[lower-alpha 11] with Generic Democrat in Maine's 2nd congressional district Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Generic Democrat (D) Undecided Colby College/SocialSphere Feb 10–13, 2020 493 (LV) – 41% 34% 28%[lower-alpha 12]

See also

• United States presidential elections in Maine
• 2020 United States presidential election
• 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2020 United States elections

Notes

1. Only statewide rating given
2. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
3. "Someone else" 8%; "Would not vote" 1%
4. "Someone else" 3%; "Would not vote" 3%
5. "Jo Jorgensen" 1%; "Howie Hawkins" 1%
6. "Someone else" 9%; "Would not vote" 1%
7. "Someone else" 2%; "Would not vote" 4%
8. "Someone else" 8%; "Would not vote" 2%
9. "Someone else" 3%; "Would not vote" 3%
10. "It depends on who the Democratic candidate is" with 15%; "Undecided at this time" with 15%
11. "It depends on who the Democratic candidate is" with 15%; "Undecided at this time" with 16%
12. "It depends on who the Democratic candidate is" with 14%; "Undecided at this time" with 14%

References

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