2020 Montana gubernatorial election

The 2020 Montana gubernatorial election will be held on November 3, 2020, to elect the next Governor of Montana, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic Governor Steve Bullock, who is term-limited and cannot seek reelection to a third consecutive term, is instead seeking Montana's Class II Senate seat[1][2][3] after a short campaign for President of the United States.[4] Bullock is the only incumbent governor in the United States (not counting U.S. territories) who is term-limited in 2020.

See also: 2020 United States gubernatorial elections
2020 Montana gubernatorial election
November 3, 2020
 
Nominee Mike Cooney Greg Gianforte
Party Democratic Republican
Running mate Casey Schreiner Kristen Juras
Incumbent Governor

Steve Bullock
Democratic
Elections in Montana

Bullock's lieutenant governor, Mike Cooney, is the Democratic nominee. The Republican nominee is Montana at-large congressman Greg Gianforte, who became a controversial figure for body slamming a reporter the day of a 2017 special election.[5]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary
  • Whitney Williams, businesswoman and daughter of former U.S. Representative Pat Williams[8]
    • Running mate: Buzz Mattelin, farmer and president of the National Barley Growers Association

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements
Mike Cooney
Statewide politicians
Federal politicians
Organizations
Whitney Williams
Statewide politicians
Local politicians
Federal politicians
  • Hillary Clinton, former Secretary of State, former First Lady, 2016 Democratic presidential nominee [30]
Organizations

Polling

Polls with a sample size of <100 have their sample size entries marked in red to indicate a lack of reliability.

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Mike
Cooney		 Reilly
Neill		 Casey
Schreiner		 Whitney
Williams		 Other /
Undecided
Montana State University Billings October 7–16, 2019 40 (LV) – 19% 2% 6% 11% 62%

Results
Results by county
Democratic primary results[32]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Mike Cooney 81,527 54.86%
Democratic Whitney Williams 67,066 45.14%
Total votes 148,593 100.00%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee
  • Running mate: Kristen Juras, businesswoman and attorney[35]

Eliminated in primary
  • Running mate: Jon Knokey, former state representative

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements
Greg Gianforte
Individuals
Organizations

Polling

Polls with a sample size of <100 have their sample size entries marked in red to indicate a lack of reliability.

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Tim
Fox		 Greg
Gianforte		 Albert
Olszewski		 Other /
Undecided
Montana State University Billings October 7–16, 2019 99 (LV) – 25% 33% 9% 32%
Gravis Marketing August 28–30, 2019 433 (RV) ± 4.7% 29% 56% 15% –
Moore Information[upper-alpha 1] July 7–10, 2019 400 (LV) ± 5.0% 17% 56% 5% 23%

Results
Results by county
Republican primary results[32]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Greg Gianforte 119,247 53.44%
Republican Tim Fox 60,823 27.26%
Republican Albert Olszewski 43,062 19.30%
Total votes 223,132 100.00%

Other candidates

Libertarian Party

Nominee
  • Lyman Bishop, founder and CEO of Hoplite Armor[47]
    • Running mate: John Nesper

Withdrawn
  • Ron Vandevender, nominee for lieutenant governor in 2016 and nominee for governor in 2012[48][49][50]

Green Party

Disqualified
  • Robert Barb[47][51]
    • Running mate: Joshua Thomas

Results
Green primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Green Robert Barb 713 100.0%
Total votes 713 100.0%

General election

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[52] Tossup April 3, 2020
Inside Elections[53] Tossup June 19, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[54] Tossup July 14, 2020
Politico[55] Lean R (flip) July 6, 2020
Daily Kos[56] Lean R (flip) July 22, 2020
RCP[57] Tossup July 29, 2020

Endorsements
Mike Cooney (D)
Statewide and local politicians
Federal politicians
Former candidates
Organizations
Greg Gianforte (R)
Individuals
Organizations

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Mike
Cooney (D)		 Greg
Gianforte (R)		 Other /
Undecided
Emerson College July 31 – August 2, 2020 584 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 50% 10%
Civiqs/Daily Kos July 11–13, 2020 873 (RV) ± 4.2% 44% 47% 9%[lower-alpha 2]
Public Policy Polling[upper-alpha 2] July 9–10, 2020 1,224 (V) ± 2.8% 42% 46% 12%[lower-alpha 3]
University of Montana June 17–26, 2020 517 (RV) ± 4.3% 36% 46% 18%[lower-alpha 4]
The Progress Campaign (D) April 14–21, 2020 1,712 (RV) ± 4.6% 41% 43% 16%[lower-alpha 5]
Hypothetical polling with former candidates

University of Montana polls did not account for the withdrawals of Democratic and Republican candidates after they lost their primaries.

with Mike Cooney, Tim Fox, Greg Gianforte, Albert Olszewski, Ron Vandevender and Whitney Williams
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Democratic
Candidates		 Republican
Candidates		 Ron
Vandevender (L)
University of Montana February 12–22, 2020 498 (LV) ± 4.4% 35.1%[lower-alpha 6] 61.7%[lower-alpha 7] 1.3%
with Mike Cooney, Tim Fox, Greg Gianforte, Reilly Neill, Albert Olszewski, Gary Perry, Casey Schreiner and Whitney Williams
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Democratic
Candidates		 Republican
Candidates
University of Montana September 26 – October 3, 2019 303 (RV) ± 5.6% 40%[lower-alpha 8] 60.1%[lower-alpha 9]
with Tim Fox, Matt Rosendale, Corey Stapleton, Kathleen Williams and Whitney Williams
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Democratic
Candidates		 Republican
Candidates		 Other /
Undecided
University of Montana February 21 – March 1, 2019 293 (RV) ± 5.7% 32.4%[lower-alpha 10] 48.4%[lower-alpha 11] 19.2%[lower-alpha 12]

Results
2020 Montana gubernatorial election
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Democratic Mike Cooney
Republican Greg Gianforte
Libertarian Lyman Bishop
Write-in
Total votes 100.00%

Notes
  1. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. "Someone else" with 5%; Undecided with 4%
  3. Undecided with 12%
  4. Undecided with 18.3%
  5. Undecided with 16%
  6. Cooney with 21%; Williams with 14.1%
  7. Gianforte with 35%; Fox with 21.6%; Olszewski with 6.9%
  8. Cooney with 23%; Williams with 7.9%; Schreiner with 6%; Neill with 3.1%
  9. Gianforte with 35.1%; Fox with 16.1%; Olszewski with 8.1%; Perry with 0.8%
  10. Kathleen Williams with 26.6%; Cooney with 5.2%; Whitney Williams with 0.6%
  11. Fox with 16.8%; Gianforte with 16.1%; Stapleton with 8%; Rosendale with 7.5%
  12. "Someone else" with 15.4%; "none/do not plan to vote" with 3.8%
Partisan clients
  1. Commissioned by Gianforte
  2. Poll's funding was crowdsourced by Election Twitter.

References
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  2. Arkin, James (March 9, 2020). "Bullock enters Montana Senate race". POLITICO.
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  5. Bozeman Daily Chronicle, Whitney Bermes, October 11, 2017, Judge releases Congressman Gianforte's mugshot, Retrieved October 11, 2017.
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  8. Volz, Matt (October 3, 2019). "Williams now 4th Democrat in governor's race". Great Falls Tribune. Associated Press. Retrieved October 3, 2019.
  9. Press, The Associated (January 22, 2020). "Former Montana lawmaker Neill drops out of governor's race". KECI.
  10. Drake, Phil (January 21, 2020). "Democrat Neill drops from Montana governor's race". Great Falls Tribune.
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  17. Lippman, Daniel (May 10, 2019). "'The Revenant' author considering run for Montana Senate or governor". Politico. Retrieved May 10, 2019.
  18. Punke, Michael (2019-06-23). "As my friends and family know, I have been considering a run for Montana's senator or governor. I'm grateful for the encouragement I received. I have decided not to seek election this cycle. For my family &me, it's not the right time. Thx to all who offered advice &encouragement". @MPunke. Retrieved 2019-06-23.
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  22. "Mike Cooney". ballotpedia.org.
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  25. Cooney, Mike (February 24, 2020). "I'm so humbled to have the support of my friend and mentor former Senator Max Baucus for this campaign. Max knows how we win tough races in Montana: by showing up, by putting in the hard work, and by listening to all Montanans #mtpol #mtgov…".
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  28. Williams, Whitney (October 28, 2019). "From her childhood in Browning to her election as the first Native American woman elected to statewide executive office, Denise has always tackled Montana's challenges with grit and determination — leaving a trailblazing legacy. I am so proud she's on #TeamWhitney. #MTpol". @WhitneyforMT. Twitter.
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  62. https://mobile.twitter.com/CooneyforMT/status/1268987397405982720
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Official campaign websites
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