2020 United States Senate election in Montana

The 2020 United States Senate election in Montana will be held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Montana, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.

2020 United States Senate election in Montana

November 3, 2020

Nominee Steve Daines Steve Bullock Party Republican Democratic

Incumbent U.S. senator Steve Daines Republican

Originally this seat was projected to be a likely Republican hold.[1] However, Steve Bullock, Montana's popular Democratic governor, entered the race on the last day to file, which has shifted the dynamics of the contest dramatically, and many political pundits now consider it a competitive race and potential pickup for Democrats.[2]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Steve Daines, incumbent U.S. Senator[3]

Eliminated in primary

• John Driscoll, former Democratic Speaker of the Montana House of Representatives (1977–1979)[4]
• Daniel Larson, hardware store manager[3]

Endorsements

Steve Daines
Businessmen Donald Trump Jr., son of President Donald Trump[5]

Results

Results by county

Daines

•   Daines—≥90%
•   Daines—80–90%

Republican primary results[6]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Steve Daines (incumbent)	192,942	88.0%
	Republican	John Driscoll	13,944	6.4%
	Republican	Daniel Larson	12,319	5.6%
Total votes			219,205	100.0%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Steve Bullock, incumbent Governor of Montana and former candidate for President of the United States in 2020[2][7][8]

Eliminated in primary

• John Mues, nuclear engineer and U.S. Navy veteran[9]

Withdrawn

• Jack Ballard, former professor at Montana State University Billings (endorsed Bullock)[10]
• Wilmot Collins, mayor of Helena (endorsed Bullock)[11]
• Mike Knoles, mathematician, physicist, and data analyst (endorsed Bullock)[12] (remained on ballot)
• Cora Neumann, public health expert and founder of the Global First Ladies Alliance[13] (endorsed Bullock)[14]
• Josh Seckinger, fishing guide (endorsed Bullock)[15]

Declined

• Michael Punke, writer and former U.S. ambassador to the World Trade Organization[16][17]
• Brian Schweitzer, former Governor of Montana[18]
• Kathleen Williams, former state representative and nominee for Montana's at-large congressional district in 2018 (running for Montana's at-large congressional district)[19]

Endorsements

Steve Bullock
Federal officials Kamala Harris, U.S. Senator (CA)[20] Organizations The Lincoln Project[21]

Results

Results by county

Bullock

•   Bullock—>90%
•   Bullock—80-90%

Democratic primary results[22] [23]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Steve Bullock	144,949	95.5%
	Democratic	John Mues	3,740	2.5%
	Democratic	Mike Knoles (withdrawn)	3,165	2.1%
Total votes			151,854	100.0%

Other candidates

Libertarian Party

After Susan Geise officially withdrew, the Montana Libertarian Party could name a replacement candidate for the general election.[24][25] However, during a meeting to select a replacement candidate, a majority of party officials selected not to have a replacement candidate, with "none of the above" winning the most votes.[26]

Withdrawn

• Eric Fulton, Republican candidate for District 65 of the Montana House of Representatives in 2014[27]
• Susan Geise, Lewis and Clark County commissioner and former chair of the Montana Republican Party[28][29][30]

Green Party

Disqualified

• Wendie Fredrickson, former audit reviewer for Montana State Department of Public Health and Human Services[4][31][32]

Eliminated in primary

• Dennis Daneke, retired college professor[33][31]

Results

Results by county

  Fredrickson

  Daneke

  Tie

  No vote

Green primary results[22]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Green	Wendie Fredrickson	502	66.4%
	Green	Dennis Daneke	254	33.6%
Total votes			756	100.0%

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[34]	Tossup	July 23, 2020
Inside Elections[35]	Tossup	July 10, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[36]	Lean R	August 5, 2020
Daily Kos[37]	Lean R	July 22, 2020
Politico[38]	Tossup	July 6, 2020
RCP[39]	Tossup	August 6, 2020
Niskanen[40]	Tossup	July 26, 2020
270towin[41]	Tossup	August 6, 2020

Endorsements

Steve Daines (R)

Federal Officials Nikki Haley, former U.S. Ambassador to the UN (2017–2018) and former Governor of South Carolina (2011–2017)[42] Mitch McConnell, U.S. Senator from Kentucky and Senate Majority Leader[43] Lindsey Graham, U.S. Senator from South Carolina[44] Marco Rubio, U.S. Senator from Florida[45] Ted Cruz, U.S. Senator from Texas[46] Businessmen Donald Trump Jr., son of President Donald Trump[5] Organizations National Rifle Association[47] Senate Conservatives Fund[48] FreedomWorks[49] Campaign for Working Families[49]

Steve Bullock (D)
Federal officials Kamala Harris, U.S. Senator from California; 2020 vice presidential nominee[20] Amy Klobuchar, Senator for Minnesota (2007–present), former candidate for 2020 Democratic presidential nomination.[50] Organizations Human Rights Campaign[51] Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs[52] National Organization for Women[53] Planned Parenthood[54]

Polling

Aggregate Polls

Steve Bullock vs. Steve Daines
Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Steve Bullock	Steve Daines	Other/Undecided[lower-alpha 1]	Margin
270 to Win	March 17, 2020 - August 2, 2020	August 3, 2020	45.3%	47.5%	7.2%	Daines + 2.2

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Steve Daines (R)	Steve Bullock (D)	Other / Undecided
Emerson College	July 31 – August 2, 2020	584 (LV)	± 4.0%	50%	44%	5%
Spry Strategies (R)	July 11–16, 2020	700 (LV)	± 3.7%	47%	44%	9%
Civiqs/Daily Kos	July 11–13, 2020	873 (RV)	± 4.2%	49%	47%	3%[lower-alpha 3]
Public Policy Polling (D)	July 9–10, 2020	1,224 (V)	± 2.8%	44%	46%	10%[lower-alpha 4]
University of Montana	June 17–26, 2020	517 (RV)	± 4.3%	43%	47%	10%[lower-alpha 5]
Montana State University Bozeman	April 10–27, 2020	459 (LV)	± 4.6%	39%	46%	15%[lower-alpha 6]
The Progress Campaign (D)	April 14–21, 2020	712 (LV)	± 4.6%	46%	49%	5%
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 1]	March 12–13, 2020	903 (V)	± 3.3%	47%	47%	6%

Hypothetical polls with former candidates

University of Montana polls did not account for certain presumed withdrawals of major party candidates after their primaries in the following polls. Steve Daines vs Steve Bullock, Wilmot Collins, Mike Knoles, Cora Neumann, and John Mues Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Democratic candidates Steve Daines (R) University of Montana February 12–22, 2020 498 (LV) ± 4.4% 53%[lower-alpha 7] 47% Steve Daines vs Jack Ballard, Wilmot Collins, and John Mues Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Democratic candidates Steve Daines (R) University of Montana September 26 – October 3, 2019 303 (RV) ± 5.6% 36.2%[lower-alpha 8] 63.8%

Results

United States Senate election in Montana, 2020

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	Republican	Steve Daines (incumbent)
	Democratic	Steve Bullock
	Write-in
Total votes				100.0%

Notes

1. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
2. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
3. Undecided with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
4. Undecided with 10%
5. Undecided with 9.7%
6. Undecided with 7%; "someone else" with 6%; would not vote with 1%
7. Steve Bullock with 38%, Wilmot Collins with 4%, Cora Neumann with 7%, Mike Knoles and John Mues with 2%
8. Jack Ballard with 18.1%, Wilmot Collins with 9.4%, John Mues with 8.7%

Partisan clients

1. Poll sponsored by End Citizens United, an organization which has exclusively supported Democratic candidates

References

1. "Here's who we think will win the 2020 elections in Montana". Politico. November 19, 2019. Retrieved April 12, 2020.
2. Nilsen, Ella; Zhou, Li (March 9, 2020). "Gov. Steve Bullock just made the Montana Senate race competitive for Democrats". Vox. Retrieved April 12, 2020.
3. "Hardware store manager enters Montana U.S. Senate race". KPAX. February 23, 2020. Retrieved March 3, 2020.
4. Michels, Holly (March 9, 2020). "Filing deadline for Montana ballot sees last-minute surprises". Helena Independent Record.
5. Trump, Donald Jr. (November 25, 2019). "Montana's A-Team: Daines, Rosendale, Gianforte". Missoulian. Retrieved December 22, 2019.
6. "2020 Primary Election". Montana Secretary of State. Retrieved June 2, 2020.
7. Arkin, James (March 9, 2020). "Bullock enters Montana Senate race". Politico.
8. Pramuk, Jacob (March 9, 2020). "Montana Gov. Steve Bullock launches Senate bid, a boost in Democrats' push for majority". CNBC.
9. Michels, Holly (July 11, 2019). "Democrat John Mues joins U.S. Senate race". Missoulian.
10. "Ballard drops from U.S. Senate Race". Great Falls Tribune. September 13, 2019. Retrieved September 14, 2019.
11. @CollinsWilmot (March 9, 2020). "Thank you, Montana. It's been my honor to run for U.S. Senate. Today I'm suspending my campaign and endorsing Governor Steve Bullock" (Tweet). Retrieved March 9, 2020 – via Twitter.
12. https://mobile.twitter.com/KnolesMichael/status/1236997949730611207
13. Neumann, Cora [@CoraforMT] (March 9, 2020). "Today, I am announcing that I am withdrawing from the race for U.S. Senate and supporting Governor Steve Bullock's campaign" (Tweet). Retrieved March 9, 2020 – via Twitter.
14. @LA_Hagen (March 9, 2020). "With Bullock's entrance into #MTSEN, Democrat Cora Neumann drops out and endorses him" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
15. Stein, Perrin. "Bozeman Senate candidate drops out of race, supports Bullock". Bozeman Daily Chronicle.
16. Lippman, Daniel (May 10, 2019). "'The Revenant' author considering run for Montana Senate or governor". Politico. Retrieved May 10, 2019.
17. Punke, Michael [@MPunke] (June 23, 2019). "As my friends and family know, I have been considering a run for Montana's senator or governor. I'm grateful for the encouragement I received. I have decided not to seek election this cycle. For my family &me, it's not the right time. Thx to all who offered advice &encouragement" (Tweet). Retrieved June 23, 2019 – via Twitter.
18. Singiser, Steve. "Here's our ultimate Democratic wishlist for Senate in 2020. Who's on yours?". Daily Kos. Retrieved February 19, 2019.
19. "Williams launches new bid for Montana US House seat". KECI. Associated Press. April 5, 2019. Retrieved April 5, 2019.
20. "Kamala Harris Endorsements". May 9, 2020.
21. Manchester, Julia (June 24, 2020). "Lincoln Project Backs Bullock in Montana Senate Race". The Hill. Retrieved June 25, 2020.
22. "Montana U.S. Senate Primary Election Results". The New York Times. June 3, 2020. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
23. "2020 Primary Election". Montana Secretary of State. Retrieved June 2, 2020.
24. "Susan Good Geise: Montana Libertarian withdraws from U.S. Senate race". Missoula Current. May 18, 2020.
25. "Statement from the Montana Libertarian Party as Susan Good Geise withdraws from the US Senate race in Montana". May 16, 2020 – via Facebook.
26. Dennison, Mike (August 6, 2020). "Libertarians won't have 2020 candidate for U.S. Senate in Montana". KTVH. Retrieved August 7, 2020.
27. "Candidate Filing". Montana Secretary of State. March 18, 2020. Retrieved June 2, 2020.
28. "Geise enters 2020 run for U.S. Senate as Libertarian". Great Falls Tribune. March 20, 2020.
29. "Susan Good Geise: Montana Libertarian withdraws from U.S. Senate race". Missoula Current. May 18, 2020.
30. "May 15, 2020 — Susan Good Geise". Susan Good Geise for US Senate. May 15, 2020.
31. Holly Michels (May 18, 2020). "Greens say 'Go Green Montana' group isn't affiliated". Helena Independent Record. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
32. Michels, Holly (August 7, 2020). "Helena judge again takes Green Party off the ballot". Helena Independent Record. Retrieved August 7, 2020.
33. Dennison, Mike (March 26, 2020). "MT Green Party candidates: One says, 'don't vote for me'". KTVH.
34. "2020 Senate Race Ratings for April 19, 2019". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2019.
35. "2020 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved July 17, 2020.
36. "2020 Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved August 28, 2019.
37. "Daily Kos Elections releases initial Senate race ratings for 2020". Daily Kos Elections. Retrieved February 28, 2020.
38. "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
39. "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
40. "2020 Negative Partisanship and the 2020 Congressional Elections". Niskanen Center. April 28, 2020.
41. "2020 Senate Map Based on Polls". 270towin.com. August 6, 2020. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
42. "Steve Daines for Senate". WinRed. Campaign donation page with Nikki Haley endorsement.
43. https://secure.winred.com/steve-daines/mcconnell-a
44. https://secure.winred.com/steve-daines/graham-a?sc=20200508_ad_YT_GRAHAM-V3&utm_source=YT&utm_campaign=GRAHAM-V3&utm_medium=CPD&utm_content=GRAHAM-V3&gclid=CjwKCAjwmrn5BRB2EiwAZgL9ohvMZc-fzCrrbDg3jT2nhyobyu6l5UJ6pKWK8xnoXlqBQOB3elxi9xoC404QAvD_BwE
45. https://secure.winred.com/steve-daines/rubio-a
46. "Steve Daines for Senate". WinRed. Campaign donation page with Ted Cruz endorsement.
47. "NRA Endorses Steve Daines". Montana Right Now. May 13, 2020.
48. "Building A Conservative Senate". Senate Conservatives Fund.
49. "Steve Daines' Ratings and Endorsements". Vote Smart.
50. "The Win Big Project".
51. Acosta, Lucas (May 27, 2020). "Human Rights Campaign Endorses Gov. Steve Bullock for U.S. Senate". Human Rights Campaign.
52. "Meet the 2020 Candidates". Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs.
53. "2020 Federal Endorsements - NOW PAC". nowpac.org.
54. "2020 Endorsements". www.plannedparenthoodaction.org.

External links

Official campaign websites

• Steve Bullock (D) for Senate
• Steve Daines (R) for Senate
• Wendie Frederickson (G) for Senate