2020 United States presidential election in Wisconsin

The 2020 United States presidential election in Wisconsin is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate.[1] Wisconsin voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Wisconsin has 10 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]

Main article: 2020 United States presidential election
2020 United States presidential election in Wisconsin
November 3, 2020
Turnout%
 
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida Delaware
Running mate Mike Pence Kamala Harris
Incumbent President

Donald Trump
Republican
Elections in Wisconsin

The Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee won its bid to host the 2020 Democratic National Convention.[3][4] The other finalist cities were Houston and Miami.

As of March 2020, incumbent President Donald Trump is the Republican Party's presumptive nominee, being the only viable declared major candidate left. Wisconsin Republican politicians Paul Ryan and Scott Walker both declined to run against Trump. The remaining major declared candidate vying for the Democratic presidential nomination is former Vice President Joe Biden.

Primary elections

Effects of the 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic
See also: Impact of the 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic on politics § Wisconsin, and COVID-19 pandemic in Wisconsin

Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, several states delayed their scheduled primaries and extended the vote-by-mail period. Concerns were raised by health officials, poll workers, and voters that in-person voting at the height of the pandemic would be unsafe for vulnerable individuals.[5] Governor Tony Evers (D) signed an executive order for all-mail-in election, but the order was rejected by the Republican-controlled Wisconsin Legislature.[6]

On April 2, although U.S. District Judge William M. Conley refused to postpone the election, he extended the deadline for absentee voting to April 13 (ordering clerks not to release any election data before that date).[7][8] However, on April 6, the Supreme Court of the United States overturned Conley's decision, meaning that all absentee ballots must still be postmarked by "election day, Tuesday, April 7" even though it will still be acceptable for the ballots to be received by the clerks as late as April 13.[9][10] The Supreme Court of the United States, "did not alter the provision in Conley's amended order which prohibits the reporting of results until April 13".[11]

Governor Evers then called a special session of the legislature to postpone in-person voting, but the session ended within minutes without action, forcing the primary to go on as planned.[12]

Despite having previously expressed the view that he would violate the law by doing so,[13] on April 6, Evers issued an executive order which, if enforced, would have postponed the April 7 elections until the tentative date of June 9.[14][15] Republican leaders immediately announced that they would challenge the order in the Wisconsin Supreme Court.[14] The Wisconsin Supreme Court ruled that Evers did not have the authority to postpone the elections, thus meaning that Evers' executive order was nullified, and that the elections would be held as scheduled on April 7.[16]

This was appealed to a federal court who sided with the Governor, and that was appealed to the US Supreme Court, which on a 5–4 vote, upheld the State court's ruling.[17]

Voting was somewhat chaotic, with people waiting in the rain for hours in some cases in masks and social distancing.[18] However, by the time the election concluded, Milwaukee Election Commissioner Neil Albrecht stated that despite some of the problems, the in-person voting ran smoothly.[19]

Democratic primary
2020 Wisconsin Democratic presidential primary[20][21]
Candidate Votes[22] % Delegates[23]
Joe Biden 581,463 62.86% 56
Bernie Sanders 293,441 31.72% 28
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn) 14,060 1.52%
Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn) 8,846 0.96%
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn) 6,079 0.66%
Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn) 5,565 0.60%
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn) 4,946 0.53%
Andrew Yang (withdrawn) 3,349 0.36%
Tom Steyer (withdrawn) 836 0.09%
John Delaney (withdrawn) 529 0.06%
Michael Bennet (withdrawn) 475 0.05%
Deval Patrick (withdrawn) 311 0.03%
Uncommitted 3,590 0.39%
Scattering 1,575 0.17%
Total 925,065 100% 84

100% precincts reporting[24]

Republican primary

Incumbent President Donald Trump ran unopposed in the Republican primary, and thus received all of Wisconsin's 52 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[25]

2020 Wisconsin Republican primary
Candidate Votes % Delegates
Donald Trump 616,782 97.87% 52
Adam Nicholas Paul (write-in) 246 0.04%
Uninstructed 11,246 1.78%
Scattering 1,924 0.31%
Total 630,198 100% 52

General election

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[26] Lean D (flip) July 23, 2020
Inside Elections[27] Tilt D (flip) July 17, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[28] Tossup July 14, 2020
Politico[29] Tossup July 6, 2020
RCP[30] Tossup August 3, 2020
Niskanen[31] Likely D (flip) July 26, 2020
CNN[32] Tossup August 3, 2020
The Economist[33] Likely D (flip) August 7, 2020
CBS News[34] Lean D (flip) August 9, 2020
270towin[35] Lean D (flip) August 2, 2020
ABC News[36] Lean D (flip) July 31, 2020
NPR[37] Tossup August 3, 2020
NBC News[38] Lean D (flip) August 6, 2020
538[39] Lean D (flip) August 14, 2020

Polling

Aggregate polls

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
Source of poll aggregation Dates administered Dates updated Joe Biden Donald Trump Other/Undecided[lower-alpha 1] Margin
270 to Win July 11 – August 7, 2020 August 10, 2020 48.2% 41.0% 10.8% Biden +7.2
Real Clear Politics July 22 – August 7, 2020 August 10, 2020 48.7% 42.3% 9.0% Biden +6.4
FiveThirtyEight until August 7, 2020 August 10, 2020 49.2% 41.8% 9.0% Biden +7.4
Average 48.7% 41.7% 9.6% Biden +7.0

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Joe
Biden (D)		 Other Undecided
CNBC/Change Research Aug 6–9, 2020 384 (LV) – 43% 47%
Marquette Law School Aug 4–9, 2020 694 (LV) ± 3.8% 46% 50% 2% 1%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Aug 5–6, 2020 750 (LV) – 43% 55% 1% 1%
YouGov Aug 4–7, 2020 1,009 (RV) ± 3.7% 42% 48% 3% 7%
University of Wisconsin-Madison/YouGov Jul 27–Aug 6, 2020 734 (RV) ± 4.9% 43% 49% – –
David Binder Research Jul 30–31, 2020 200 (LV) – 42% 53% – –
Change Research/CNBC Jul 24–26, 2020 392 (LV) – 43% 48% – –
Morning Consult Jul 17–26, 2020 809 (LV) ± 3.4% 43% 50% – –
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Jul 19–24, 2020 742 (RV) – 35% 45% 5%[lower-alpha 3] 15%
Gravis Marketing Jul 22, 2020 796 (RV) ± 3.5% 42% 50% – 7%
Global Strategy Group (D) Jul 11–17, 2020 600 (V) ± 4.0% 42% 51% 2% 4%
Spry Strategies Jul 11–16, 2020 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 45% 46% – 8%
Change Research/CNBC Jul 10–12, 2020 601 (LV) – 42% 48% – –
Change Research/CNBC Jun 26–28, 2020 502 (LV)[lower-alpha 4] – 43% 51% – –
Trafalgar Group Jun 25–26, 2020 1,021 (LV) ± 3.0% 46% 45% 8%[lower-alpha 5] 2%
Marquette Law School Jun 14–18, 2020 805 (RV) – 42% 51% 7%[lower-alpha 6] 3%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) Jun 12–16, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 39% 55% 2%[lower-alpha 7] 6%
NYT Upshot/Siena College Jun 8–15, 2020 655 (RV) ± 4.3% 38% 49% 5%[lower-alpha 8] 8%
Change Research/CNBC Jun 12–14, 2020 231 (LV)[lower-alpha 9] – 44% 48% 5%[lower-alpha 10] –
Fox News May 30 – Jun 2, 2020 801 (RV) ± 3.5% 40% 49% 6%[lower-alpha 11] 5%
Change Research/CNBC May 29–31, 2020 382 (LV)[lower-alpha 12] – 45% 45% 5% 6%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies May 10–14, 2020 875 (LV) ± 3.3% 38% 48% 3%[lower-alpha 13] 10%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) May 6–8, 2020 600 (LV) ± 3% 42% 51% – 8%
Marquette Law School May 3–7, 2020 811 (RV) ± 4.0% 43% 46% 4%[lower-alpha 14] 4%
Public Policy Polling[upper-alpha 1] Apr 20–21, 2020 1,415 (RV) – 45% 50% – 4%
Ipsos Apr 15–20, 2020 645 (RV) ± 5.0% 40% 43% – –
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) Apr 13–15, 2020 600 (RV) ± 3.0% 45% 50% – –
Hart Research/CAP Action[upper-alpha 2] Apr 6–8, 2020 303 (RV) – 47% 48% 2% 3%
Marquette Law School Mar 24–29, 2020 556 (LV) – 44% 50% 3%[lower-alpha 15] 2%
Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes Mar 17–25, 2020 822 (RV) ± 3.8% 45% 45% – 10%
Change Research Mar 21–23, 2020 510 (LV) – 49% 45% – 6%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) Mar 17–19, 2020 600 (RV) – 49% 45% – –
Public Policy Polling Mar 10–11, 2020 1,727 (RV) – 45% 48% – 6%
YouGov/Yahoo News Mar 6–8, 2020 459 (RV) – 42% 44% 6%[lower-alpha 16] 7%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Mar 5–7, 2020 502 (LV) ± 4.7 % 45% 43% – –
Marquette Law School Feb 19–23, 2020 686 (LV) – 47% 48% 4%[lower-alpha 17] 2%
YouGov Feb 11–20, 2020 936 (RV) ± 4.0 % 43% 45% – –
Quinnipiac University Feb 12–18, 2020 823 (RV) ± 3.4 % 49% 42% 4%[lower-alpha 18] 4%
Expedition Strategies/Progressive Policies Institute Feb 6–18, 2020 500 (RV) – 44% 42% – 13%
Tarrance Group/Wisconsin Manufacturers and Commerce Jan 14–16, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.5 % 46% 47% – 6%
Marquette Law School Jan 8–12, 2020 701 (LV) – 47% 48% 4%[lower-alpha 19] 2%
Fox News Jan 5–8, 2020 1,504 (RV) ± 2.5% 41% 46% 8%[lower-alpha 20] 4%
Marquette Law School Dec 3–8, 2019 652 (LV) – 47% 49% 2%[lower-alpha 21] 1%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Dec 3–5, 2019 610 (LV) ± 4.1% 48% 39% 8%[lower-alpha 22] 5%[lower-alpha 23]
Marquette Law School Nov 13–17, 2019 685 (LV) – 48% 45% 5%[lower-alpha 24] 2%
NYT Upshot/Siena College Oct 13–26, 2019 651 (LV) ± 4.4% 44% 46% – –
Marquette Law School Oct 13–17, 2019 657 (LV) – 44% 51% 3%[lower-alpha 25] 1%
Fox News Sep 29 – Oct 2, 2019 1,512 ± 2.5% 39% 48% 5% 6%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Sep 7–9, 2019 534 ± 4.0% 42% 44% 14% –
Marquette Law School Aug 25–29, 2019 672 (LV) – 44% 51% 3%[lower-alpha 26] 2%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Jun 11–13, 2019 535 ± 4.3% 40% 46% 14% –
WPA Intelligence Apr 27–30, 2019 200 ± 6.9% 46% 42% – 9%
Zogby Analytics Apr 15–18, 2019 802 ± 3.5% 40% 50% – 11%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Mar 19–21, 2019 616 ± 4.1% 40% 53% 5% –
Emerson College Mar 15–17, 2019 775 ± 3.5% 46% 54% – –

Four-way race

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Joe
Biden (D)		 Jo
Jorgensen (L)		 Howie
Hawkins (G)		 Other Undecided
Redfield & Whilton Strategies Jun 14–19, 2020 846 (LV) ± 3.37% 36% 45% 1% 1% 2% 15%
Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Michael
Bloomberg (D)		 Other Undecided
Marquette Law School Feb 19–23, 2020 686 (LV) – 45% 46% 5%[lower-alpha 27] 4%
Quinnipiac University Feb 12–18, 2020 823 (RV) ± 3.4 % 49% 41% 5%[lower-alpha 28] 5%
Expedition Strategies/Progressive Policies Institute Feb 6–18, 2020 500 (RV) – 44% 43% – 12%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Dec 3–5, 2019 610 (LV) ± 4.1% 49% 37% 10%[lower-alpha 29] 4%[lower-alpha 30]

Donald Trump vs. Cory Booker

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Cory
Booker (D)		 Other Undecided
Marquette Law School Dec 3–8, 2019 652 (LV) – 47% 45% 4%[lower-alpha 31] 4%
Marquette Law School Nov 13–17, 2019 685 (LV) – 45% 45% 5%[lower-alpha 32] 4%

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Pete
Buttigieg (D)		 Other Undecided
Marquette Law School Feb 19–23, 2020 686 (LV) – 45% 49% 3%[lower-alpha 33] 2%
YouGov Feb 11–20, 2020 936 (RV) ± 4.0 % 43% 45% – –
Quinnipiac University Feb 12–18, 2020 823 (RV) ± 3.4 % 49% 41% 5%[lower-alpha 34] 5%
Expedition Strategies/Progressive Policies Institute Feb 6–18, 2020 500 (RV) – 43% 44% – 13%
Marquette Law School Jan 8–12, 2020 701 (LV) – 47% 45% 5%[lower-alpha 35] 4%
Fox News Jan 5–8, 2020 1,504 (RV) ± 2.5% 41% 42% 10[lower-alpha 36] 7%
Marquette Law School Dec 3–8, 2019 652 (LV) – 47% 44% 4%[lower-alpha 37] 4%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Dec 3–5, 2019 610 (LV) ± 4.1% 49% 38% 8%[lower-alpha 38] 5%[lower-alpha 39]
Marquette Law School Nov 13–17, 2019 685 (LV) – 48% 40% 7%[lower-alpha 40] 6%
Marquette Law School Oct 13–17, 2019 657 (LV) – 44% 46% 5%[lower-alpha 41] 4%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Jun 11–13, 2019 535 ± 4.3% 41% 39% 20% –
Zogby Analytics Apr 15–18, 2019 802 ± 3.5% 41% 44% – 16%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Kamala
Harris (D)		 Other Undecided
Marquette Law School Aug 25–29, 2019 672 (LV) – 46% 46% 5%[lower-alpha 42] 4%
Zogby Analytics Apr 15–18, 2019 802 ± 3.5% 42% 43% – 14%
Emerson College Mar 15–17, 2019 775 ± 3.5% 50% 50% – –

Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Amy
Klobuchar (D)		 Other Undecided
Marquette Law School Feb 19–23, 2020 686 (LV) – 46% 49% 3%[lower-alpha 43] 2%
YouGov Feb 11–20, 2020 936 (RV) ± 4.0 % 43% 44% – –
Quinnipiac University Feb 12–18, 2020 823 (RV) ± 3.4 % 50% 39% 5%[lower-alpha 44] 6%
Marquette Law School Nov 13–17, 2019 685 (LV) – 53% 36% 6%[lower-alpha 45] 4%
Emerson College Mar 15–17, 2019 775 ± 3.5% 50% 50% – –

Donald Trump vs. Beto O'Rourke

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Beto
O'Rourke (D)		 Other Undecided
Zogby Analytics Apr 15–18, 2019 802 ± 3.5% 41% 44% – 15%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Mar 19–21, 2019 616 ± 4.1% 42% 45% 9% –
Emerson College Mar 15–17, 2019 775 ± 3.5% 49% 51% – –

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Bernie
Sanders (D)		 Other Undecided
Marquette Law School Mar 24–29, 2020 556 (LV) – 45% 48% 5%[lower-alpha 46] 2%
Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes Mar 17–25, 2020 822 (RV) ± 3.8% 46% 42% – 12%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) Mar 17–19, 2020 600 (RV) – 50% 43% – –
Public Policy Polling Mar 10–11, 2020 1,727 (V) – 46% 48% – 7%
YouGov/Yahoo News Mar 6–8, 2020 459 (RV) – 40% 46% 9%[lower-alpha 47] 5%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Mar 5–7, 2020 502 (LV) ± 4.7 % 48% 42% – –
Marquette Law School Feb 19–23, 2020 686 (LV) – 46% 50% 3%[lower-alpha 48] 1%
YouGov Feb 11–20, 2020 936 (RV) ± 4.0 % 44% 46% – –
Quinnipiac University Feb 12–18, 2020 823 (RV) ± 3.4 % 50% 43% 4%[lower-alpha 49] 4%
Expedition Strategies/Progressive Policies Institute Feb 6–18, 2020 500 (RV) – 46% 45% – 9%
Tarrance Group/Wisconsin Manufacturers and Commerce Jan 14–16, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.5 % 47% 47% – 7%
Marquette Law School Jan 8–12, 2020 701 (LV) – 47% 47% 3%[lower-alpha 50] 1%
Fox News Jan 5–8, 2020 1,504 (RV) ± 2.5% 42% 46% 8%[lower-alpha 51] 4%
Marquette Law School Dec 3–8, 2019 652 (LV) – 48% 46% 4%[lower-alpha 52] 1%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Dec 3–5, 2019 610 (LV) ± 4.1% 51% 38% 7%[lower-alpha 53] 4%[lower-alpha 54]
Marquette Law School Nov 13–17, 2019 685 (LV) – 49% 45% 5%[lower-alpha 55] 1%
NYT Upshot/Siena College Oct 13–26, 2019 651 (LV) ± 4.4% 46% 47% – –
Marquette Law School Oct 13–17, 2019 657 (LV) – 45% 48% 4%[lower-alpha 56] 2%
Fox News Sep 29 – Oct 2, 2019 1,512 ± 2.5% 40% 45% 5% 6%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Sep 7–9, 2019 534 ± 4.0% 43% 49% 8% –
Marquette Law School Aug 25–29, 2019 672 (LV) – 46% 48% 4%[lower-alpha 57] 1%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Jun 11–13, 2019 535 ± 4.3% 40% 47% 13% –
Zogby Analytics Apr 15–18, 2019 802 ± 3.5% 42% 49% – 9%
Tulchin Research (D)[upper-alpha 3] Apr 14–18, 2019 400 ± 4.9% 42% 52% – –
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Mar 19–21, 2019 616 ± 4.1% 41% 48% 7% –
Emerson College Mar 15–17, 2019 775 ± 3.5% 48% 52% – –

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Elizabeth
Warren (D)		 Other Undecided
Marquette Law School Feb 19–23, 2020 686 (LV) – 47% 49% 3%[lower-alpha 58] 2%
YouGov Feb 11–20, 2020 936 (RV) ± 4.0 % 44% 46% – –
Quinnipiac University Feb 12–18, 2020 823 (RV) ± 3.4 % 51% 41% 4%[lower-alpha 59] 4%
Marquette Law School Jan 8–12, 2020 701 (LV) – 49% 45% 5%[lower-alpha 60] 2%
Fox News Jan 5–8, 2020 1,504 (RV) ± 2.5% 41% 44% 9%[lower-alpha 61] 5%
Marquette Law School Dec 3–8, 2019 652 (LV) – 48% 46% 5%[lower-alpha 62] 2%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Dec 3–5, 2019 610 (LV) ± 4.1% 50% 37% 8%[lower-alpha 63] 5%[lower-alpha 64]
Marquette Law School Nov 13–17, 2019 685 (LV) – 50% 43% 4%[lower-alpha 65] 2%
NYT Upshot/Siena College Oct 13–26, 2019 651 ± 4.4% 47% 45% – –
Marquette Law School Oct 13–17, 2019 657 (LV) – 45% 50% 3%[lower-alpha 66] 1%
Fox News Sep 29 – Oct 2, 2019 1,512 ± 2.5% 41% 45% 5% 7%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Sep 7–9, 2019 534 ± 4.0% 42% 43% 15% –
Marquette Law School Aug 25–29, 2019 672 (LV) – 46% 48% 4%[lower-alpha 67] 3%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Jun 11–13, 2019 535 ± 4.3% 41% 41% 18% –
Zogby Analytics Apr 15–18, 2019 802 ± 3.5% 41% 47% – 12%
Emerson College Mar 15–17, 2019 775 ± 3.5% 48% 52% – –
Zogby Analytics Aug 17–23, 2017 603 ± 4.0% 37% 48% – 15%
Hypothetical polling

with Donald Trump, Joe Biden, and Howard Schultz

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Joe
Biden (D)		 Howard
Schultz (I)		 Undecided
Emerson College Mar 15–17, 2019 775 ± 3.5% 44% 51% 4% –

with Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders, and Howard Schultz

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Bernie
Sanders (D)		 Howard
Schultz (I)		 Undecided
Emerson College Mar 15–17, 2019 775 ± 3.5% 46% 48% 5% –

with Donald Trump and generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Generic
Democrat		 Other Undecided
Baldwin Wallace University/Oakland University/Ohio Northern University Mar 17–25, 2020 997 (RV) ± 3.7% 46.8%[lower-alpha 68] 50.4% – 2.8%[lower-alpha 69]
Expedition Strategies/Progressive Policies Institute Feb 6–18, 2020 500 (RV) – 41% 49% – 11%
Baldwin Wallace University/Oakland University/Ohio Northern University Jan 8–20, 2020 1,038 (RV) ± 3.3% 36.7%[lower-alpha 70] 51.2% – 12%
KFF/Cook Political Report Sep 23 – Oct 15, 2019 745 (RV) ± 4% 28% 41% – 21%
Change Research/Crooked Media Aug 9–11, 2019 1,966 (V) ± 2.2% 45% 46% 3%[lower-alpha 71] 6%
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 4] Apr 23–24, 2019 762 ± 3.6% 44% 53% – 4%

with Donald Trump and generic Opponent

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Generic
Opponent		 Other Undecided
Marquette University Released Apr 7, 2019 800 (RV) – 42% 57%[lower-alpha 72] 0%[lower-alpha 73] 4%
Emerson College Mar 15–17, 2019 775 (RV) ± 3.5% 45% 55%[lower-alpha 74] – –
Marquette University Jan 16–20, 2019 800 (RV) – 39% 57%[lower-alpha 75] 0%[lower-alpha 76] 4%

See also

Notes
Voter samples and additional candidates
  1. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. "Jo Jorgensen" with 2%; "Kayne West" 2%; "Another Third Party/Write-In" 1%
  4. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  5. "Other party candidate" with 8%
  6. "Neither" with 5%; "refused" with 2%
  7. "Refused" with 2%
  8. "Another candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 2%
  9. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  10. "Libertarian Party candidate/Green Party candidate" with 5%
  11. "Other" with 4%; would not vote with 2%
  12. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  13. "Third party/write-in" with 3%
  14. "Neither" with 4%
  15. "Neither" with 2%; "refused" with 1%
  16. "Other" with 5%; would not vote with 1%
  17. "Neither" with 3%; "refused" with 1%
  18. "Someone else" with 1%; would not vote with 3%
  19. "Neither" with 3%; refused with 1%
  20. Other with 6%; wouldn't vote with 2%
  21. Neither with 1%; refused with 1%
  22. A third party candidate with 6%; would not vote with 2%
  23. Includes "refused"
  24. Neither with 4%; refused with 1%
  25. Neither with 3%; refused with 0%
  26. "Neither" with 2%; "refused" with 1%
  27. "Neither" with 4%; "refused" with 1%
  28. "Someone else" with 2%; would not vote with 3%
  29. A third party candidate with 8%; would not vote with 2%
  30. Includes "refused"
  31. Neither with 3%; refused with 1%
  32. Neither with 3%; refused with 2%
  33. "Neither" with 3%; "refused" with 0%
  34. "Someone else" with 1%; would not vote with 4%
  35. "Neither" with 4%; refused with 1%
  36. Other with 7%; wouldn't vote with 3%
  37. Neither with 2%; refused with 2%
  38. A third party candidate with 6%; would not vote with 2%
  39. Includes "refused"
  40. Neither with 5%; refused with 2%
  41. Neither with 5%; refused with 0%
  42. "Neither" with 4%; "refused" with 1%
  43. "Neither" with 2%; "refused" with 1%
  44. "Someone else" with 1%; would not vote with 4%
  45. Neither with 5%; refused with 1%
  46. "Neither" with 4%; "refused" with 1%
  47. "Other" with 7%; would not vote with 2%
  48. "Neither" with 2%; "refused" with 1%
  49. "Someone else" with 1%; would not vote with 3%
  50. "Neither" with 3%; refused with 0%
  51. Other with 6%; wouldn't vote with 2%
  52. Neither with 3%; refused with 1%
  53. A third party candidate with 6%; would not vote with 2%
  54. Includes "refused"
  55. Neither with 4%; refused with 1%
  56. Neither with 4%; refused with 0%
  57. "Neither" with 3%; "refused" with 1%
  58. "Neither" with 2%; "refused" with 1%
  59. "Someone else" with 1%; would not vote with 3%
  60. "Neither" with 4%; refused with 1%
  61. Other with 6%; wouldn't vote with 3%
  62. Neither with 3%; refused with 2%
  63. A third party candidate with 6%; would not vote with 2%
  64. Includes "refused"
  65. Neither with 3%; refused with 1%
  66. Neither with 3%; refused with 0%
  67. "Neither" with 3%; "refused" with 1%
  68. Figures for each candidate in this poll include undecided voters who were reported to lean towards that candidate at the time of polling.
  69. "It depends on who the Democrats nominate" with 1.9%; "unsure" with 0.9%
  70. Figures for each candidate in this poll include undecided voters who were reported to lean towards that candidate at the time of polling.
  71. "Third-party candidate" with 3%
  72. "Would probably or definitely vote for someone other than Trump" with 57%
  73. "Refused" with 0%
  74. Listed as "unlikely to vote for Trump" as opposed to "likely to vote for Trump"
  75. "Would probably or definitely vote for someone other than Trump" with 57%
  76. "Refused" with 0%
Partisan clients
  1. Poll sponsored by Protect Our Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organisation
  2. CAP Action is a political advocacy group that exclusively supports Democratic candidates
  3. Poll sponsored by the Sanders campaign
  4. Poll sponsored by Protect Our Care

References
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