2020 United States Senate special election in Arizona

The 2020 United States Senate special election in Arizona will be held on November 3, 2020. Following the death in office of incumbent Republican U.S. Senator John McCain on August 25, 2018, Governor Doug Ducey was required by Arizona law to appoint a Republican to fill the vacant seat through the end of the term expiring in January 2023.[1][2] On September 5, 2018, Ducey appointed former U.S. Senator Jon Kyl to fill McCain's seat. However, Kyl announced he would resign the following December 31.[3]

See also: 2020 United States Senate elections

2020 United States Senate special election in Arizona
November 3, 2020
 
Nominee Martha McSally Mark Kelly
Party Republican Democratic
Incumbent U.S. senator

Martha McSally
Republican
Elections in Arizona

On December 18, 2018, Ducey announced that outgoing U.S. Representative Martha McSally would be appointed to fill the seat following Kyl's resignation, which would trigger a special election.[4] McSally was sworn in as the state's junior U.S. Senator on January 3, 2019, less than two months after she was defeated by Democrat Kyrsten Sinema for Arizona's Class I U.S. Senate seat.[5] McSally is running to complete the term, defeating skincare executive Daniel McCarthy in the Republican primary. She faces former astronaut Mark Kelly, who ran uncontested in the Democratic primary. Primary elections took place on August 4, 2020.[6]

Interim appointments

Appointees

Potential candidates not appointed

Republican primary

Incumbent McSally faces one challenger: Daniel McCarthy, a skincare company executive. Upon his respective announcements, McCarthy's independent wealth was expected to set up a bruising and expensive primary campaign.[14]

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary
  • Sean Lyons (as a write-in candidate)[17]
  • Daniel McCarthy, skincare company executive[18]

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements
Martha McSally
U.S. Presidents
U.S. Representatives
State officials
Organizations
Daniel McCarthy
Individuals
  • Brandon Tatum, retired police officer and co-founder of Blexit[48]

Primary results
Results by county:
  McSally—80–90%
  McSally—70–80%
  McSally—60–70%
Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Martha McSally (incumbent) 536,548 75.6%
Republican Daniel McCarthy 172,934 24.4%
Total votes 709,482 100.0%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary
  • Bo "Heir Archy" Garcia (as a write-in candidate)[17]

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements
Mark Kelly
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Former state legislators
Local officials
Organizations

Primary results
Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Mark Kelly 623,451 100.0%
Total votes 623,451 100.0%

Libertarian primary

Neither candidate received sufficient votes to be placed on the November ballot.[77]

Write-in Candidates

Eliminated in primary

Other candidates

Independents

Declared
  • Mohammed Arif (as a write-in candidate)[50]
  • Robert Kay (as a write-in candidate)[78][80] [81]

General election

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[82] Lean D (flip) July 23, 2020
Inside Elections[83] Tilt D (flip) July 10, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[84] Lean D (flip) August 5, 2020
Daily Kos[85] Lean D (flip) July 22, 2020
Politico[86] Lean D (flip) July 6, 2020
RCP[87] Tossup August 6, 2020
Niskanen[88] Likely D (flip) July 26, 2020
270towin[89] Likely D (flip) August 6, 2020

Endorsements
Martha McSally (R)
Federal Officials
State officials
Organizations
Mark Kelly (D)
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Statewide officials
State senators
State representatives
Local officials
Individuals
Organizations

Polling

Aggregate polls
Martha McSally vs Mark Kelly
Source of poll aggregation Dates administered Dates updated Martha McSally Mark Kelly Other /
Undecided[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
270 to Win July 01, 2020 - July 26, 2020 July 14, 2020 40.5% 50.5% 6.8% Kelly + 10%
Real Clear Politics March 3, 2020 – June 2, 2020 June 3, 2020 43% 49.5% 6.8% Kelly + 6.5%
JHK Forecasts Apr 1, 2020 – June 3, 2020 45.3% 52.4% 2.2% Kelly + 7.1%
Average 42.2% 50.7% 5.2% Kelly + 8.5%
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Martha
McSally (R)		 Mark
Kelly (D)		 Other /
Undecided
Emerson College August 8–10, 2020 843 ± 3.4% 41% 52% 7%
Change Research/CNBC August 7–9, 2020 428 ± 4.6% 43% 49% 8%
OH Predictive Insights August 3–4, 2020 603 ± 4.0% 43% 48% 8%
Data for Progress July 24 – August 2, 2020 1,215 ± 3.2% 40% 50% 10%
Change Research/CNBC July 24–26, 2020 365 ± 4.8% 45% 47% 8%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies July 19–23, 2020 858 ± 3.2% 35% 53% 12%
Morning Consult July 17–26, 2020 908 ± 3.0% 36% 52% 13%
CNN/SSRS July 18–24, 2020 873 ± 3.8% 43% 50% 7%
Public Policy Polling July 21–22, 2020 816 ± 3.2% 42% 51% 7%
NBC News/Marist July 14–22, 2020 826 ± 4.1% 41% 53% 6%
Spry Strategies (R) July 11–16, 2020 700 ± 3.7% 41% 48% 11%
Change Research/CNBC July 10–12, 2020 345 ± 4.6% 45% 52% 3%[lower-alpha 3]
CBS News/YouGov July 7–10, 2020 1,099 ± 3.8% 42% 46% 12%[lower-alpha 4]
OH Predictive Insights July 6–7, 2020 600 ± 4.0% 43% 52% 6%[lower-alpha 5]
Data Orbital June 27–29, 2020 600 ± 4.0% 43% 50% 7%[lower-alpha 6]
Gravis Marketing (R)[upper-alpha 1] June 27, 2020 527 ± 4.3% 46% 42% 12%[lower-alpha 7]
Change Research/CNBC June 26–28, 2020 311[lower-alpha 8] ± 5.8% 44% 53% 3%[lower-alpha 9]
Global Strategy Group (D) June 19–24, 2020 800 ± 3.5% 42% 49% 9%
Change Research (D)[upper-alpha 2] June 20–23, 2020 946 ± 3.2% 42% 50% 8%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies June 14–17, 2020 865 ± 3.3% 34% 49% 17%[lower-alpha 10]
NYT Upshot/Siena College June 8–16, 2020 650 ± 4.3% 38% 47% 16%[lower-alpha 11]
Civiqs/Daily Kos June 13–15, 2020 1,368 ± 2.9% 42% 51% 7%[lower-alpha 12]
FOX News May 30 – June 2, 2020 1,002 ± 3.9% 37% 50% 13%[lower-alpha 13]
HighGround Public Affairs May 18–22, 2020 400 ± 4.9% 41% 51% 8%[lower-alpha 14]
OH Predictive Insights May 9–11, 2020 600 ± 4.0% 38% 51% 10%[lower-alpha 15]
OH Predictive Insights April 7–8, 2020 600 ± 4.0% 42% 51% 7%
NBC News/Marist March 10–15, 2020 2,523 ± 2.7% 45% 48% 7%
Monmouth University March 11–14, 2020 847 ± 3.4% 44% 50% 6%
Univision/Arizona State University March 6–11, 2020 1,036 ± 3.0% 36% 48% 16%
OH Predictive Insights March 3–4, 2020 600 ± 4.0% 42% 49% 8%
Public Policy Polling March 2–3, 2020 666 ± 3.8% 42% 47% 12%
HighGround Public Affairs February 7–9, 2020 400 ± 4.9% 39% 46% 15%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[upper-alpha 3] January 22–24, 2020 1,000 ± 3.1% 47% 45% 8%
Public Policy Polling January 2–4, 2020 760 ± 3.6% 42% 46% 12%
OH Predictive Insights December 3–4, 2019 628 ± 3.9% 44% 47% 9%
Emerson College October 25–28, 2019 904 ± 3.2% 45% 46% 9%
Change Research (D) September 27–28, 2019 396 ± 3.3% 45% 47% 8%
Bendixen & Amandi International September 9–12, 2019 520 ± 4.3% 42% 42% 16%
OH Predictive Insights August 13–14, 2019 600 ± 4.0% 41% 46% 13%
Fabrizio Ward/AARP July 29–31, 2019 600 ± 4.0% 45% 44% 11%[lower-alpha 16]
OH Predictive Insights May 1–2, 2019 600 ± 4.0% 45% 44% 10%
OH Predictive Insights February 12–13, 2019 600 ± 4.0% 46% 44% 10%
Hypothetical polling
with Daniel McCarthy and Mark Kelly
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Daniel
McCarthy (R)		 Mark
Kelly (D)		 Other /
Undecided
Change Research[upper-alpha 4] June 20–23, 2020 946 ± 3.2% 44% 50% 6%
with Ruben Gallego
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Martha
McSally (R)		 Ruben
Gallego (D)		 Other /
Undecided
OH Predictive Insights February 12–13, 2019 600 ± 4.0% 49% 41% 10%
on whether McSally deserves to be re-elected
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Yes No Other /
Undecided
Fabrizio Ward/AARP July 29–31, 2019 600 ± 4.0% 39% 45% 16%[lower-alpha 17]
Public Policy Polling January 24–25, 2019 682 – 40% 54% 6%
with generic Republican and generic Democrat
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Generic
Republican		 Generic
Democrat		 Other /
Undecided
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Team McSally/Politico[upper-alpha 5] Jan 22–24, 2020 1,000 ± 3.1% 49% 45% 6%
Fabrizio Ward/AARP July 29–31, 2019 600 ± 4.0% 42% 43% 14%

Results
2020 United States Senate Special election in Arizona
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Republican Martha McSally (incumbent)
Democratic Mark Kelly
Write-in
Total votes 100.0%

Notes
  1. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. Undecided with 2%; would not vote with 1%
  4. Undecided with 9%; "Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 0%
  5. Undecided with 5%; "Refused" with 1%
  6. Undecided with 5.2%; "Other" with 1.8%; "refused" with 0.4%
  7. Undecided with 12%
  8. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  9. Undecided with 3%; "Would not vote" with 0%
  10. Undecided with 14%; "Third party/write-in" with 3%
  11. Undecided with 14%; "Another candidate" and would not vote with 1%
  12. "Someone else" with 4%; unsure with 3%
  13. Undecided with 8%; "Other" with 3%; would not vote with 2%
  14. "Undecided/refused" with 5.8%; "some other candidate" with 1.8%
  15. Undecided with 10%
  16. Undecided with 9%; "Would not vote/would not vote for US Senate" with 2%
  17. Undecided with 14%, refused with 2%
Partisan clients
  1. Polling was sponsored by OANN.
  2. This poll's sponsor, 314 Action, had endorsed Kelly prior to the sampling period
  3. Poll sponsored by the McSally campaign
  4. This poll's sponsor, 314 Action, had endorsed Kelly prior to the sampling period
  5. Poll sponsored by the McSally campaign

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Official campaign websites
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