2020 United States presidential election in Montana
The 2020 United States presidential election in Montana is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate.[1] Montana voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Montana has 3 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]
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By the time that the primary elections were held in the state on June 2, 2020, incumbent President Donald Trump was already the Republican Party's presumptive nominee, being the only viable declared major candidate left. On the Democratic Party's side, Vice President Joe Biden became the presumptive nominee after Senator Bernie Sanders, his last competitor, withdrew on April 8, 2020. The Libertarian Party, which received over 5% of the vote in 2016, already held its 2020 Libertarian National Convention from May 21 to May 25, nominating Jo Jorgensen.
Montana Governor Steve Bullock was a candidate until he withdrew from the Democratic primary on December 2, 2019.
Primary elections
The primary elections were held on June 2, 2020.
Republican primary
Donald Trump ran unopposed in the Republican primary, and thus received all of the state's 27 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[3]
Democratic primary
| Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates[5] |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden | 111,706 | 74.5% | 18 |
| Bernie Sanders (suspended) | 22,033 | 14.7% | 1 |
| Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn) | 11,984 | 8.0% | |
| Uncommitted | 4,250 | 2.8% | |
| Total | 149,973 | 100% | 19 |
Libertarian nominee
The 2020 Libertarian National Convention was held on May 22–24, 2020, selecting Jo Jorgensen, Psychology Senior Lecturer at Clemson University, as their presidential nominee.
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[6] | Likely R | July 23, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[7] | Lean R | July 17, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[8] | Likely R | July 14, 2020 |
| Politico[9] | Safe R | July 6, 2020 |
| RCP[10] | Lean R | August 3, 2020 |
| Niskanen[11] | Likely R | March 24, 2020 |
| CNN[12] | Safe R | August 3, 2020 |
| The Economist[13] | Likely R | August 7, 2020 |
| CBS News[14] | Likely R | August 9, 2020 |
| 270towin[15] | Likely R | August 2, 2020 |
| ABC News[16] | Lean R | July 31, 2020 |
| NPR[17] | Likely R | August 3, 2020 |
| NBC News[18] | Likely R | August 6, 2020 |
| 538[19] | Lean R | August 14, 2020 |
Polling
Aggregate polls
| Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Joe Biden | Donald Trump | Other/Undecided[lower-alpha 1] | Margin |
| FiveThirtyEight | until July 24, 2020 | July 26, 2020 | 41.8% | 50.7% | 7.5% | Trump +8.9 |
- Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump (R) |
Joe Biden (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | Jul 31 – Aug 2, 2020 | 584 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 53% | 42% | – | 5% |
| Public Policy Polling | Jul 23–24, 2020 | 917 (V) | – | 50% | 45% | – | 5% |
| Spry Strategies | Jul 11–16, 2020 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 52% | 42% | – | 6% |
| Civiqs/Daily Kos | Jul 11–13, 2020 | 873 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 49% | 45% | 5%[lower-alpha 3] | 1% |
| Public Policy Polling/Election Twitter | Jul 9–10, 2020 | 1,224 (V) | ± 2.8% | 51% | 42% | – | 7% |
| University of Montana | Jun 17–26, 2020 | 517 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 52% | 38% | – | 10% |
| Montana State University Bozeman | Apr 10–27, 2020 | 459 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 45% | 40% | 11% | 5% |
| The Progress Campaign (D) | Apr 14–21, 2020 | 1,712 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 51% | 42% | – | 7%[lower-alpha 4] |
| University of Montana | Feb 12–22, 2020 | 498 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 56% | 34% | – | 10% |
| University of Montana | Sep 26 – Oct 3, 2019 | 303 (RV) | ± 5.6% | 54% | 47% | – | – |
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See also
Notes
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - "Someone else" with 5%
- Listed as "other/not sure"
- "Someone else" with 11.6%; Warren with 5%; "none/do not plan to vote" with 4%; Kasich with 4.4%; Harris with 3.8%; O'Rourke with 3.4%; Booker with 2.4%; Gillibrand with 1% Schultz with 1.2%
References
- Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- "Montana Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
- "Montana Secretary of State". electionresults.mt.gov. Montana Secretary of State. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
- "Delegate Tracker". interactives.ap.org. Associated Press. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
- "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
- "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
- "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
- "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
- "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
- 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
- David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved 2020-06-16.
- "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved 7 July 2020.
- "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
- "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
- "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
- "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved 2020-08-03.
- "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved 2020-08-06.
- "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved 14 August 2020.
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