2020 United States House of Representatives election in Montana

The 2020 United States House of Representatives election in Montana will be held on November 3, 2020, to elect the U.S. Representative from Montana's at-large congressional district. The elections will coincide with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections.

2020 United States House of Representatives election in Montana, at-large district

November 3, 2020

Nominee Matt Rosendale Kathleen Williams Party Republican Democratic

Incumbent U.S. Representative Greg Gianforte Republican

The incumbent is Republican Greg Gianforte, who was reelected with 50.9% of the vote in 2018.[1] He is running for Governor of Montana a second time in the 2020 election after having lost the 2016 election to incumbent Democrat Steve Bullock, which means that the contest for the U.S. House of Representatives will be an open race.[2]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Matt Rosendale, Montana State Auditor, nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2018, candidate for Montana's at-large congressional district in 2014[3]

Eliminated in primary

• Joe Dooling, rancher and chair of the Lewis and Clark County Republican Party[4]
• John Evankovich, electrical contractor[5]
• Debra Lamm, former chair of the Montana Republican Party and former state representative[6]
• Mark McGinley, youth counselor and retired Montana National Guard veteran[5]
• Corey Stapleton, Secretary of State of Montana, former state senator, candidate for Governor of Montana in 2012, candidate for the U.S. House in 2014[7]

Declined

• Greg Gianforte, incumbent U.S. Representative (running for governor)[2]
• Albert Olszewski, state senator (running for governor)[8]
• Denny Rehberg, former U.S. Representative, nominee for U.S. Senate in 1996 and 2012, and former Lieutenant Governor of Montana[9]

Endorsements

Matt Rosendale
Executive Officials Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States[10] Individuals Donald Trump Jr., businessman, son of President Donald Trump[11] Organizations Club for Growth[12]

Polling

Polls with a sample size of <100 have their sample size entries marked in red to indicate a lack of reliability.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Russell Fagg	Joe Dooling	Timothy Johnson	Al Olszewski	Denny Rehberg	Matt Rosendale	Corey Stapleton	Undecided
Montana State University Billings	October 7–16, 2019	99 (LV)	–	–	1%	<1%	–	–	32%	22%	44%
WPA Intelligence (R)[upper-alpha 1]	February 24–26, 2019	501	± 4.4%	24%	–	–	–	–	57%	–	15%
				–			–	39%	46%	–	13%
				18%			10%	–	51%	–	18%
				15%			–	31%	37%	–	16%
				17%			–	–	48%	19%	16%

Results

Republican primary results[13]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Matt Rosendale	104,575	48.3%
	Republican	Corey Stapleton	71,902	33.2%
	Republican	Debra Lamm	14,462	6.7%
	Republican	Joe Dooling	13,726	6.3%
	Republican	Mark McGinley	7,818	3.6%
	Republican	John Evankovich	3,983	1.8%
Total votes			216,466	100.0%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Kathleen Williams, former state representative and nominee for Montana's at-large congressional district in 2018[14]

Eliminated in primary

• Tom Winter, state representative[15]

Withdrew

• Matt Rains, rancher and army veteran (endorsed Williams)[16]

Declined

• Wilmot Collins, mayor of Helena and former 2020 candidate for U.S. Senate[17]
• Rob Quist, musician, member of the Montana Arts Council, nominee for Montana's at-large congressional district in 2017

Endorsements

Kathleen Williams

State politicians Dick Barrett, State Representative Emma Kerr-Carpenter, State Representative Willis Curdy, State Representative Ann Mary Dussault, former State Representative and former House Majority Leader Jen Gross, State Senator Tom Jacobson, State Senator Jessica Karjala, State Representative Kathy Kelker, State Representative Jasmine Krotkov, State Representative Margaret McDonald, State Senator, Senate Minority Whip, and former State Representative Mary McNally, State Senator Diane Sands, State Senator and former State Representative Local politicians Mike Kadas, former mayor of Missoula (1996-2006) Individuals Matt Rains, rancher and army veteran and former 2020 candidate for U.S. House of Representatives from Montana's at-large district[18] Local unions American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees Montana Council 9[19] International Brotherhood of Teamsters Local 190[20] Montana Federation of Public Employees[21] Organizations EMILY's List End Citizens United League of Conservation Voters Montana Conservation Voters Montana Sportsmen Alliance PAC National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare National Organization for Women New Democrat Coalition Action Fund[22]

Tom Winter
Individuals Marianne Williamson, former 2020 Democratic presidential candidate[23] Organizations Blue America[24] DUH! Demand Universal Healthcare[25] Montana Progressive Democrats[26] Our Revolution[27] Progressive Rising[28] Sunrise Movement - Montana chapter[29]

Polling

Polls with a sample size of <100 have their sample size entries marked in red to indicate a lack of reliability.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Matt Rains	Kathleen Williams	Undecided
Montana State University Billings	October 7–16, 2019	40 (LV)	–	6%	69%	25%

Results

Democratic primary results[13]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Kathleen Williams	133,436	89.5%
	Democratic	Tom Winter	15,698	10.5%
Total votes			149,134	100.0%

Other candidates

Green Party

Disqualified

• John Gibney, anti-immigration activist[30][31]

Results

Green primary results[13]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Green	John Gibney	690	100.0%
Total votes			690	100.0%

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[32]	Lean R	August 5, 2020
Inside Elections[33]	Lean R	August 7, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[34]	Likely R	July 23, 2020
Politico[35]	Likely R	July 6, 2020
Daily Kos[36]	Likely R	July 21, 2020
RCP[37]	Lean R	June 9, 2020
Niskanen[38]	Lean R	July 26, 2020

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Matt Rosendale (R)	Kathleen Williams (D)	Other / Undecided
WPA Intelligence/Club For Growth (R)[upper-alpha 1]	August 9–11, 2020	500	± 4.4%	51%	45%	–
Civiqs/Daily Kos	July 11–13, 2020	873 (RV)	± 4.2%	49%	47%	5%[lower-alpha 2]
Public Policy Polling (D)	July 9–10, 2020	1,224 (V)	± 2.8%	44%	44%	13%[lower-alpha 3]
Global Strategy Group (D)[upper-alpha 2]	June 24–28, 2020	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	47%	47%	6%
University of Montana	June 17–26, 2020	517 (RV)	± 4.3%	45%	37%	18.%[lower-alpha 4]
Global Strategy Group (D)[upper-alpha 3]	Late March 2020	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	48%	43%	–
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 4]	March 12–13, 2020	903 (V)	± 3.3%	45%	45%	9%
DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department (D)	October 2019	–	–	48%	43%	–

Hypothetical polls with former candidates

University of Montana polls did not account for certain presumed withdrawals of major party candidates after their primaries in the following polls. with Joe Dooling (R), John Evankovich (R), Timothy Johnson (R), Corey Stapleton (R) and Tom Winter (D) Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 1] Margin of error Matt Rosendale (R) Corey Stapleton (R) Kathleen Williams (D) Other University of Montana February 12–22, 2020 498 (LV) ± 4.4% 35.7% 19.4% 35.8% 9.1%[lower-alpha 5] with Joe Dooling (R), Timothy Johnson (R), Matt Rains (D), Corey Stapleton (R) and Tom Winter (D) Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 1] Margin of error Matt Rosendale (R) Corey Stapleton (R) Kathleen Williams (D) Other University of Montana September 26 – October 3, 2019 303 (RV) ± 5.6% 35.3% 19.8% 36.1% 8.8%[lower-alpha 6]

Results

Montana's at-large congressional district, 2020

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	Republican	Matt Rosendale
	Democratic	Kathleen Williams
Total votes				100.0%

Notes

1. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
2. Undecided with 3%; "Someone else" with 2%
3. Undecided with 13%
4. Undecided with 18.4%
5. Dooling (R) with 2.9%; Winter (D) with 2.7%; Johnson (R) with 1.8%; Evankovich (R) with 1.7%
6. Dooling (R) with 2.5%; Rains (D) with 2.4%; Winter (D) with 2.1%; Johnson (R) with 1.8%

Partisan clients

1. Poll sponsored by Club for Growth Action
2. Poll sponsored by Kathleen Williams' campaign
3. Poll sponsored by Kathleen Williams' campaign
4. Poll sponsored by End Citizens United, which has exclusively endorsed Democratic candidates

References

1. Wasserman, David; Flinn, Ally (November 7, 2018). "2018 House Popular Vote Tracker". Cook Political Report. Retrieved February 28, 2019.
2. Michels, Holly K. (June 6, 2019). "Gianforte files to run for governor in 2020". Independent Record. Retrieved June 7, 2019.
3. Pathé, Simone (June 17, 2019). "On heels of Senate loss, Matt Rosendale running for Congress — again". Roll Call. Retrieved June 17, 2019.
4. Alexander, Cassidy (June 25, 2019). "Helena Rancher Joins Race For Montana's House Seat". MTPR. Retrieved June 26, 2019.
5. Dennison, Mike (March 2, 2020). "Dillon veteran a surprise candidate in U.S. House race". KTVH.
6. Drake, Phil. "Lamm enters 2020 race for U.S. House seat". Great Falls Tribune. Retrieved September 9, 2019.
7. Drake, Phil (June 15, 2019). "Stapleton announces run for U.S. House seat". Great Falls Tribune. Retrieved June 15, 2019.
8. Dennison, Mike (March 20, 2019). "Montana 2020: Gianforte gubernatorial run would have 'domino effect' on statewide races". KRTV. Retrieved March 21, 2019.
9. Pogreba, Don (January 9, 2019). "2020 Updates: Daines Tells Tim Fox to Shove Off, He's Supporting Gianforte for Governor. And Denny Rehberg is Eyeing a Comeback!". The Montana Post. Retrieved February 28, 2019.
10. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1227705242579501057
11. Trump, Donald Jr. "Montana's A-Team: Daines, Rosendale, Gianforte". missoulian.com. Retrieved December 22, 2019.
12. "Matt Rosendale (MT-AL)". Club for Growth. Retrieved February 29, 2020.
13. "2020 Primary Election". Montana Secretary of State. Retrieved June 2, 2020.
14. "Williams launches new bid for Montana US House seat". KECI. Associated Press. April 5, 2019. Retrieved April 5, 2019.
15. Michels, Holly K. (April 2, 2019). "Missoula state Rep. Tom Winter announces bid for U.S. House". Helena Independent Record. Retrieved April 2, 2019.
16. Drake, Phil (January 21, 2020). "Rains drops from U.S. House race, seeks state seat, endorses Kathleen Williams". Great Falls Tribune. Retrieved January 21, 2020.
17. Hanson, Amy Beth (May 13, 2019). "Mayor who was refugee from Liberia announces run for Senate". Associated Press. Retrieved May 13, 2019.
18. Drake, Phil (January 21, 2020). "Rains drops from U.S. House race, seeks state seat, endorses Kathleen Williams". Great Falls Tribune. Retrieved January 21, 2020.
19. "Thank you, @AFSCME Montana Council 9!". Twitter. April 21, 2020. Retrieved April 9, 2020.
20. "Teamsters Local 190 Endorse Kathleen Williams for U.S. Congress". MT People's Voice. April 21, 2020. Retrieved April 8, 2020.
21. "MFPE Endorses Kathleen Williams For Congress". MFPE. April 21, 2020. Retrieved April 7, 2020.
22. Dems, New (July 31, 2020). "ENDORSEMENT ALERT: A year ago, we launched our Frontier program to back bold, pragmatic Democrats who can flip even more seats blue. #NewDems have played a key part in expanding the House battlefield & now we're doubling down & supporting 10 more amazing candidates".
23. Marianne Williamson [@marwilliamson] (May 17, 2020). "If we want a more visionary government we need to support more visionary candidates. And the time to do it is now....secure.actblue.com/donate/marianneendorses" (Tweet). Retrieved May 17, 2020 – via Twitter.
24. "Getting Shit Done For the People". Blue America. Retrieved April 8, 2020.
25. "2020 Endorsed House Candidates". DUH! Demand Universal Healthcare. Retrieved March 19, 2020.
26. MT Progressive Dems (May 17, 2020). "Montana Progressive Democrats are proud to endorse @WinterForMT for U.S. Representative". Retrieved May 21, 2020 – via Twitter.
27. Our Revolution (April 30, 2020). "We are so proud to endorse #ProgressiveChampion Tom Winter as he will fight for a #GreenNewDeal and better rights for working people. #PoliticalRevolution". Retrieved May 21, 2020 – via Facebook.
28. "Endorsements". Progressive Rising. Retrieved April 6, 2020.
29. "We are endorsing Tom Winter for Congress because he is a Green New Deal champion". April 30, 2020. Retrieved May 1, 2020 – via Instagram.
30. Michels, Holly (March 9, 2020). "Filing deadline for Montana ballot sees last-minute surprises". Helena Independent Record.
31. Michels, Holly (August 7, 2020). "Helena judge again takes Green Party off the ballot". Helena Independent Record. Retrieved August 7, 2020.
32. "2020 Senate Race Ratings for April 19, 2019". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2019.
33. "2020 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 3, 2019.
34. "2020 Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved August 28, 2019.
35. "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
36. "Daily Kos Elections releases initial Senate race ratings for 2020". Daily Kos Elections. Retrieved February 28, 2020.
37. "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
38. "2020 Negative Partisanship and the 2020 Congressional Elections". Niskanen Center. April 28, 2020.

External links

Official campaign websites

• Matt Rosendale (R) for Congress
• Kathleen Williams (D) for Congress