2020 United States Senate election in New Mexico

The 2020 United States Senate election in New Mexico will be held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of New Mexico, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.

2020 United States Senate election in New Mexico
November 3, 2020
 
Nominee Ben Ray Luján Mark Ronchetti
Party Democratic Republican
Incumbent U.S. senator

Tom Udall
Democratic
Elections in New Mexico

On March 25, 2019, incumbent Democratic Senator Tom Udall announced that he would retire rather than seek reelection to a third term.[1][2][3] Udall is the only incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator who is not running for reelection in 2020.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements
Ben Ray Luján
Federal officials
Statewide and local politicians
Labor unions
Organizations

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Ben Ray
Luján		 Maggie
Toulouse Oliver		 Undecided
GBAO (D)[upper-alpha 1][47] April 15–18, 2019 600 ± 4.0% 64% 25% –

Results
Democratic primary results[48]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Ben Ray Luján 225,082 100.0%
Total votes 225,082 100.0%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee
  • Mark Ronchetti, former KRQE chief meteorologist[49]

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn
  • Rick Montoya, businessman[52][53]
  • Mick Rich, businessman and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2018[54][55]
  • Louie Sanchez, health care businessman[56][55]

Declined

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Gavin
Clarkson		 Elisa
Martinez		 Mark
Ronchetti		 Undecided
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[upper-alpha 2] March 18–22, 2020 400 (V) ± 4.9% 11% 11% 45% –

Results
Results by county:
  Ronchetti—70–80%
  Ronchetti—60–70%
  Ronchetti—50–60%
  Ronchetti—40–50%
  Martinez—40–50%
  Martinez—<30
Republican primary results[48]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Mark Ronchetti 89,216 56.49%
Republican Elisa Martinez 41,240 26.11%
Republican Gavin Clarkson 27,471 17.39%
Total votes 157,927 100.0%

Other candidates

Libertarian Party

Nominee

Declined

Results
Libertarian primary results[48]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Bob Walsh 1,442 100.0%
Total votes 1,442 100.0%

General election

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[63] Safe D July 23, 2020
Inside Elections[64] Safe D July 10, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[65] Likely D August 5, 2020
Daily Kos[66] Safe D July 22, 2020
Politico[67] Likely D July 6, 2020
RCP[68] Lean D August 6, 2020
Niskanen[69] Safe D July 26, 2020
270towin[70] Safe D August 6, 2020

Endorsements
Ben Ray Luján (D)
Federal officials
Statewide and local politicians
Labor unions
Organizations
Mark Ronchetti (R)
Individuals
  • Gavin Clarkson, former professor at New Mexico State University and nominee for New Mexico Secretary of State in 2018; former candidate[99]
  • Elisa Martinez, member of the Navajo Nation and executive director of the New Mexico Alliance for Life; former candidate[99]

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Ben Ray
Luján (D)		 Mark
Ronchetti (R)		 Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling June 12–13, 2020 740 ± 3.6% 48% 34% – 18%
Former candidates
Ben Ray Luján vs. Gavin Clarkson
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Ben Ray
Luján (D)		 Gavin
Clarkson (R)		 Undecided
Emerson College January 3–6, 2020 967 ± 3.1% 54% 35% 12%

Results
United States Senate election in New Mexico, 2020
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Democratic Ben Ray Luján
Republican Mark Ronchetti
Libertarian Bob Walsh
Total votes 100.0%

Notes
Partisan clients
  1. Poll sponsored by the Ben Ray Luján campaign
  2. Poll sponsored by Ronchetti's campaign
Voter samples
  1. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear

References
  1. Wagner, John (March 25, 2019). "Udall announces he won't seek another term representing New Mexico". The Washington Post. Retrieved March 25, 2019.
  2. Burns, Alexander (March 25, 2019). "Senator Tom Udall Will Retire, Ending a Dynasty in the West". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved March 25, 2019.
  3. Udall, Tom (March 25, 2019). "A message to New Mexico from Tom:". Medium. Retrieved March 25, 2019.
  4. Gonzales, Nathan L.; Gonzales, Nathan L. (March 28, 2019). "Ben Ray Luján to announce New Mexico Senate run Monday". Roll Call. Retrieved March 28, 2019.
  5. Lujan, Ben Ray [@@benraylujan] (April 1, 2019). "I'm humbled to announce my candidacy to be New Mexico's next Democratic Senator. I hope I can count on your support as we take this journey together. bit.ly/2WxMPrC" (Tweet). Retrieved April 1, 2019 – via Twitter.
  6. Terrell, Steve (April 19, 2019). "Maggie Toulouse Oliver set to enter race for U.S. Senate". Santa Fe New Mexican. Retrieved April 19, 2019.
  7. Haqani, Giovanni (July 24, 2019). "I am immensely grateful for the support that I have received but I must put the Democratic Party and the progress of New Mexico ahead of my campaign. I will work to serve in other ways but effective immediately I am withdrawing from the NM Senate race and throwing my support behind Maggie Toulouse Oliver". Facebook. Retrieved July 25, 2019.
  8. Turner, Scott (December 26, 2019). "Luján has new challenger for Senate". Albuquerque Journal. Retrieved January 3, 2020.
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  12. 4, KOB [@KOB4] (March 28, 2019). "BREAKING: @NewMexicoOAG Hector Balderas says he will NOT run for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Sen. Tom Udall. #NewMexico #nmpol" (Tweet). Retrieved March 28, 2019 – via Twitter.
  13. Monahan, Joe (March 26, 2019). "March Madness Comes To La Politica; Udall Heads For Exits And Dems Start Filling In Their Brackets For The Big Game To Come; Frustrated R's Watch The Action From The Bench; Our Complete US Senate Coverage Is Up Next". New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan. Retrieved March 26, 2019.
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  17. Oxford, Andrew [@andrewboxford] (March 25, 2019). ""While it's an honor to be considered for the Senate seat," #ABQ Mayor Tim Keller said, "I am committed to the people of Albuquerque and making a difference on the challenges we face here every day." So, Keller's out of the running for Udall's seat … #nmpol #congress" (Tweet). Retrieved March 26, 2019 – via Twitter.
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  30. "AFSCME Endorses Luján For U.S. Senate". Los Alamos Daily Post. September 9, 2019.
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  83. Giffords, Gabrielle (May 14, 2019). "Giffords Endorses Ben Ray Luján for Senate in New Mexico". Giffords.
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  91. "NARAL Pro-Choice America Endorses Ben Ray Luján for U.S. Senate". NARAL Pro-Choice America. December 2, 2019.
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  97. "Endorsements". Progressive Turnout Project.
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Official campaign websites
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