2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Maine
The 2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Maine will be held on November 3, 2020, to elect the two U.S. Representatives from the state of Maine, one from each of the state's two congressional districts. The elections will coincide with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections. The election will be conducted with ranked choice voting, as per the result of a referendum passed in 2016.
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All 2 Maine seats to the United States House of Representatives | ||||||||||
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Elections in Maine | ||||||
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Party Primaries were initially scheduled to take place on June 9, 2020. They were rescheduled by Gov. Janet Mills to July 14, 2020, due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Mills' executive order also expanded the ability to request absentee ballots, which may now be done up to and on election day.[1] Parties currently qualified to participate in the 2020 Primary Election are the Democratic Party, the Green Independent Party, and the Republican Party. Two candidates in District 1 and four candidates in district 2 filed petitions with the Secretary of State by March 16, 2020.[2] Non-party candidates can also file petitions to be included on the ballot by June 1, 2020.[3]
District 1
The 1st district encompasses the southern coastal area of the state, taking in Portland, Augusta, Brunswick and Saco. The incumbent is Democrat Chellie Pingree, who was re-elected with 58.8% of the vote in 2018.[4]
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
- Chellie Pingree, incumbent U.S. Representative
Primary results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Chellie Pingree (incumbent) | 102,773 | 100.0 | |
Total votes | 102,773 | 100.0 |
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared
- Jay Allen, physician[6]
Primary results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Jay Allen | 31,124 | 100.0 | |
Total votes | 31,124 | 100.0 |
General election
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[7] | Safe D | August 5, 2020 |
Inside Elections[8] | Safe D | August 7, 2020 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[9] | Safe D | July 23, 2020 |
Politico[10] | Safe D | July 6, 2020 |
Daily Kos[11] | Safe D | July 21, 2020 |
RCP[12] | Safe D | June 9, 2020 |
Niskanen[13] | Safe D | July 26, 2020 |
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Chellie Pingree (D) |
Jay Allen (R) |
Other/ Undecided |
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Critical Insights | July 28 – August 10, 2020 | 250 | – | 48% | 21% | 30%[lower-alpha 2] |
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Chellie Pingree (incumbent) | |||
Republican | Jay Allen | |||
Total votes | 100.0 |
District 2
The 2nd district covers most of northern rural Maine, including the cities of Lewiston, Bangor, Auburn and Presque Isle. The incumbent is Democrat Jared Golden, who flipped the district and was elected with 50.6% of the vote in 2018,[4] making him the first member of Congress to be elected by ranked choice voting.[14]
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
- Jared Golden, incumbent U.S. Representative[15]
Endorsements
Jared Golden |
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Primary results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
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Democratic | Jared Golden (incumbent) | 57,718 | 100.0 | |
Total votes | 57,718 | 100.0 |
Republican primary
Declared
- Dale Crafts, former state representative[23]
Withdrew
- Adrienne Bennett, press secretary for former Governor Paul LePage[24]
- Eric Brakey, former state senator and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2018[25]
Declined
- Travis Mills, retired U.S. Army staff sergeant[26]
- Bruce Poliquin, former U.S. Representative[27]
Endorsements
Adrienne Bennett |
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Eric Brakey |
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Dale Crafts |
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Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Adrienne Bennett |
Eric Brakey |
Dale Crafts |
Undecided |
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SurveyUSA | June 30 – July 6, 2020 | 604 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 25% | 19% | 37% | 19% |
We Ask America | June 16–17, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 28% | 22% | 20% | 29% |
Primary results
Both Bennett and Brakey conceded the race to Crafts the day after the primary. As Crafts did not get 50% of the vote, Maine's ranked choice system calls for the second choices of the last place candidate's votes to be distributed to the other candidates, whether or not the candidates concede the race. Crafts criticized this as a waste of taxpayer dollars, and both Bennett and Brakey said they would refuse to accept the results of the ranked choice tabulation. Maine Secretary of State Matthew Dunlap said whether the concessions could stop the tabulation was "a question for lawyers", but that the tabulation would begin on July 18. Crafts called on the Maine Legislature to examine this issue. Dunlap's office, while not responding directly to Crafts' call to action on the Legislature, did agree with Crafts that Dunlap was performing his duty under the law. [89]
Republican primary results[90] | ||||||||||||
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Party | Candidate | Round 1 | Round 2 | |||||||||
Votes | % (gross) | % (net) | Transfer | Votes | % (gross) | % (net) | ||||||
Republican | Dale Crafts | 19,337 | 41.3% | 45.7% | +3,551 | 22,888 | 48.9% | 58.5% | ||||
Republican | Adrienne Bennett | 13,468 | 28.8% | 31.8% | +2,739 | 16,207 | 34.6% | 41.5% | ||||
Republican | Eric Brakey | 9,542 | 20.4% | 22.5% | -9,542 | Eliminated | ||||||
Total active votes | 42,347 | 100.0% | 39,095 | 100.0% | ||||||||
Exhausted ballots | 4,458 | 9.5% | +3,252 | 7,710 | 16.5% | |||||||
Total votes | 46,805 | 100.0% | 46,805 | 100.0% |
% (gross) = percent of all valid votes cast (without eliminating the exhausted votes)
% (net) = percent of votes cast after eliminating the exhausted votes
General election
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[91] | Tossup | August 5, 2020 |
Inside Elections[92] | Tilt D | August 7, 2020 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[93] | Tossup | July 23, 2020 |
Politico[94] | Tossup | July 6, 2020 |
Daily Kos[95] | Tossup | July 21, 2020 |
RCP[96] | Tossup | June 9, 2020 |
Niskanen[97] | Lean D | July 26, 2020 |
Endorsements
Jared Golden (D) |
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Dale Crafts (R) |
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Declined to endorse |
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Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Jared Golden (D) |
Dale Crafts (R) |
Other/ Undecided |
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Critical Insights | July 28 – August 10, 2020 | 250 | – | 42% | 33% | 26%[lower-alpha 3] |
Colby College/SocialSphere | July 18–24, 2020 | 888 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 45% | 33% | 17% |
Hypothetical polling | ||||||||||||||
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Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
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Democratic | Jared Golden (incumbent) | |||
Republican | Dale Crafts | |||
Total votes | 100.0 |
Notes
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - Undecided with 23%, "Someone else" with 4%, "Prefer not to say" with 2%, and "Will not vote" with 1%
- Undecided with 22%, "Someone else" with 2%, "Prefer not to say" with 1%, and "Will not vote" with 1%
References
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- "Candidates Listing (xls)". www.maine.gov/sos/cec/elec/upcoming/. Retrieved March 25, 2020.
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- "July 14, 2020 - Primary Election - Non-Ranked Choice Offices". Maine Department Secretary of State. July 21, 2020. Retrieved August 9, 2020.
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External links
- Official campaign websites for 1st district candidates
- Official campaign websites for 2nd district candidates