2018 Arizona gubernatorial election

The 2018 Arizona gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the Governor of Arizona, concurrently with the election of Arizona's Class I U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

See also: 2018 Arizona elections

2018 Arizona gubernatorial election

November 6, 2018

Nominee Doug Ducey David Garcia Party Republican Democratic Popular vote 1,330,863 994,341 Percentage 56.0% 41.8%

County results Ducey:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80% Garcia:      50–60%      60–70%

Governor before election Doug Ducey Republican Elected Governor Doug Ducey Republican

The primary was held on August 28.[1] Despite considerably closer contests in other Arizona state elections, which included Democratic gains for U.S. Senate, Secretary of State, and Superintendent of Public Instruction, incumbent Republican Governor Doug Ducey won a second term, with a slightly increased majority from his 2014 win and the largest margin of victory of any statewide candidate on the ballot. This is the first time since 1990 in which someone who was of the same party of the incumbent president won an Arizona gubernatorial election.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Doug Ducey, incumbent governor[2]

Eliminated in primary

• Ken Bennett, former secretary of state of Arizona[3][4]
• Robert Weber (write-in)[5]

Endorsements

Doug Ducey

Arizona Association of REALTORS[6] Arizona Chamber of Commerce and Industry[7] Arizona Fraternal Order of Police[8] Arizona Police Association[9] Arizona State Troopers Association[10] The Arizona Republic[11] Arizona Daily Star[12] Casa Grande Dispatch[13] Today's News-Herald (Lake Havasu City, Arizona)[14] The Daily Courier (Prescott, Arizona)[15] Chandler Chamber of Commerce[16] Gilbert Chamber of Commerce[17] Greater Phoenix Chamber of Commerce[18] Flagstaff Chamber of Commerce[19] Mesa Chamber of Commerce[20] Tucson Metro Chamber[21] National Border Patrol Council[22] National Federation of Independent Business[23] Professional Fire Fighters of Arizona[24] Mark Lamb, Pinal County Sheriff[25] Scott Mascher, Yavapai County Sheriff[25] Mark Napier, Pima County Sheriff[25] John Doyle, Nogales Mayor[26] Gerardo Sanchez, San Luis Mayor[26] Robert Uribe, Douglas Mayor[26] Cindy McCain, philanthropist and businesswoman[27] Mike Pence, 48th Vice President of the United States[28] Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States[29]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Doug Ducey	Ken Bennett	Undecided
Emerson College	June 21–22, 2018	305	± 5.9%	44%	22%	35%

Results

Results by county:

  Ducey—70–80%

  Ducey—60–70%

  Ducey—50–60%

Republican primary results[30]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Doug Ducey (incumbent)	463,672	70.7
	Republican	Ken Bennett	191,775	29.3
	Republican	Robert Weber (write-in)	91	0.0
Total votes			655,538	99.98

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

• David Garcia, Arizona State University professor and nominee for Superintendent of Public Instruction in 2014[31][32]

Eliminated in primary

• Steve Farley, state senator[33]
• Kelly Fryer, nonprofit executive and activist[34]
• Mirza Fareed "Fareed" Baig (write-in)[5]

Declined

• Terry Goddard, former Arizona Attorney General and nominee for governor in 2010 and 1990[35]
• Kyrsten Sinema, U.S. Representative (running for U.S. Senate)[36]
• Greg Stanton, Mayor of Phoenix (running for AZ-09)[37][38]

Endorsements

David Garcia

Labor unions American Federation of Government Employees[39] Arizona Building and Construction Trades Council[40] Arizona Education Association[41] Communications Workers of America[42] Organizations Democracy for America[43] Latino Victory Fund[44] People for the American Way[45] Planned Parenthood Advocates of Arizona[46] Progressive Change Campaign Committee[47] Sierra Club[48] VoteVets.org[49] Working Families Party[50]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Steve Farley	Kelly Fryer	David Garcia	Undecided
OH Predictive Insights	August 14–15, 2018	589	± 4.0%	25%	7%	40%	28%
Data Orbital	June 25–27, 2018	550	± 4.2%	11%	6%	33%	49%
Emerson College	June 21–22, 2018	260	± 6.2%	13%	8%	30%	48%
Garin-Hart-Yang (D-Garcia)	May 21–23, 2018	400	± 5.0%	11%	11%	32%	46%
Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia)	January 5–7, 2018	446	–	22%	–	43%	36%

Results

Results by county:

  Garcia—60–70%

  Garcia—50–60%

  Garcia—40–50%

  Garcia—<40%

  Farley—40–50%

Democratic primary results[30]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	David Garcia	255,555	50.6
	Democratic	Steve Farley	163,072	32.3
	Democratic	Kelly Fryer	86,810	17.2
	Democratic	Mirza Fareed Baig (write-in)	44	0.0
Total votes			505,481	100.0

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Disqualified

• Jeff Funicello, activist[51]
• Barry Hess (write-in)[5]
• Kevin McCormick,[5] candidate for president in 2016[52][53]

Endorsements

Kevin McCormick
Individuals William Weld, former Governor of Massachusetts[54]

Green primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Angel Torres[55] (write-in)[5]

Eliminated in primary

• Noah Dyer[55] (write-in)[5]

Results

Results by county:

Torres

•   100%
•   80–90%
•   70–80%
•   60–70%

Torres/Dyer tie

•   50%

No votes

•   No votes

Green primary results[56]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Green	Angel Torres (write-in)	357	76.3
	Green	Noah Dyer (write-in)	111	23.7
Total votes			468	100.0

Independents

Candidates

Disqualified

• Noah Dyer, author, businessman and educator[57][58]
• Christian R. Komor, author, psychologist, climate scientist[59]

Declined

• Tim Jeffries, former director of the Arizona Department of Economic Security[60]

General election

Debates

Dates	Location	Ducey	Garcia	Link
September 24, 2018	Tempe, Arizona	Participant	Participant	Full debate - YouTube
September 25, 2018	Tucson, Arizona	Participant	Participant	Full debate - C-SPAN

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[61]	Likely R	October 5, 2018
The Washington Post[62]	Likely R	October 16, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[63]	Likely R	October 17, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[64]	Likely R	October 12, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[65]	Likely R	October 11, 2018
Real Clear Politics[66]	Likely R	October 11, 2018
Daily Kos[67]	Likely R	October 5, 2018
Fox News[68][lower-alpha 1]	Likely R	October 12, 2018
Politico[69]	Likely R	October 12, 2018
Governing[70]	Lean R	October 2, 2018

Notes

1. The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Doug Ducey (R)	David Garcia (D)	Angel Torres (G)	Other	Undecided
HarrisX	November 3–5, 2018	600	± 4.0%	53%	39%	–	–	–
HarrisX	November 2–4, 2018	600	± 4.0%	55%	37%	–	–	–
Emerson College	November 1–3, 2018	758	± 3.7%	55%	40%	–	–	5%
HarrisX	November 1–3, 2018	600	± 4.0%	57%	36%	–	–	–
Research Co.	November 1–3, 2018	450	± 4.6%	54%	39%	–	2%	5%
HarrisX	October 31 – November 2, 2018	600	± 4.0%	56%	37%	–	–	–
Gravis Marketing	October 24 – November 2, 2018	1,165	± 2.9%	53%	40%	–	–	7%
HarrisX	October 30 – November 1, 2018	600	± 4.0%	57%	36%	–	–	–
HarrisX	October 29–31, 2018	600	± 4.0%	54%	37%	–	–	–
Vox Populi Polling	October 27–30, 2018	677	± 3.7%	54%	46%	–	–	–
HarrisX	October 24–30, 2018	1,400	± 2.6%	57%	35%	–	–	–
Fox News	October 27–29, 2018	643 LV	± 3.5%	55%	37%	–	2%	5%
		710 RV	± 3.5%	54%	35%	–	3%	7%
CNN/SSRS	October 24–29, 2018	702 LV	± 4.4%	52%	45%	–	0%	1%
		867 RV	± 4.0%	52%	43%	–	0%	3%
HighGround Public Affairs	October 26–28, 2018	400	± 4.9%	55%	35%	4%	–	7%
Marist College	October 23–27, 2018	506 LV	± 5.4%	54%	40%	5%	<1%	2%
				55%	42%	–	1%	1%
		793 RV	± 4.4%	54%	38%	5%	<1%	3%
				55%	41%	–	1%	3%
YouGov	October 23–26, 2018	972	± 4.1%	52%	41%	–	1%	5%
Ipsos	October 17–26, 2018	799	± 4.0%	57%	37%	–	2%	3%
OH Predictive Insights	October 22–23, 2018	600	± 4.0%	57%	39%	1%	–	3%
Change Research (D-Garcia)	October 9–10, 2018	783	–	47%	40%	–	–	11%
OH Predictive Insights	October 3, 2018	600	± 4.0%	54%	37%	2%	–	7%
Data Orbital	October 1–3, 2018	550	± 4.2%	52%	34%	2%	2%	9%
Fox News	September 29 – October 2, 2018	716 LV	± 3.5%	55%	37%	–	1%	7%
		806 RV	± 3.5%	54%	35%	–	2%	9%
Vox Populi Polling	September 29 – October 1, 2018	702	± 3.5%	57%	43%	–	–	–
Suffolk University	September 27–30, 2018	500	± 4.4%	50%	38%	2%	0%	10%
Latino Decisions	September 10–25, 2018	463 LV	–	45%	40%	–	–	15%
		610 RV	–	41%	37%	–	–	19%
Emerson College	September 19–21, 2018	650	± 4.4%	42%	38%	–	6%	14%
Marist College	September 16–20, 2018	564 LV	± 4.7%	49%	39%	6%	<1%	6%
				51%	43%	–	<1%	5%
		763 RV	± 4.2%	48%	37%	7%	<1%	7%
				51%	42%	–	1%	6%
CNN/SSRS	September 11–15, 2018	761 LV	± 4.3%	49%	46%	–	0%	2%
		854 RV	± 4.1%	48%	45%	–	1%	4%
Ipsos	September 5–14, 2018	1,016	± 4.0%	51%	39%	–	4%	7%
TargetSmart (D-ProgressNow AZ)	September 8–13, 2018	800	± 4.0%	49%	48%	–	0%	3%
Fox News	September 8–11, 2018	710 LV	± 3.5%	51%	40%	–	1%	8%
		801 RV	± 3.5%	49%	39%	–	1%	10%
Gravis Marketing	September 5–7, 2018	882	± 3.3%	48%	44%	–	–	9%
Data Orbital	September 4–6, 2018	550	± 4.2%	49%	41%	–	2%[71]	8%
Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia)	August 30–31, 2018	554	± 4.2%	44%	43%	–	–	13%
Gravis Marketing	June 27 – July 2, 2018	925	± 3.2%	41%	42%	–	–	17%
Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia)	January 5–7, 2018	735	± 4.0%	42%	43%	–	–	15%
Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia)	June 7–8, 2017	1,020	± 3.1%	42%	44%	–	–	14%

Results

Arizona gubernatorial election, 2018[72]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	Republican	Doug Ducey (incumbent)	1,330,863	56.00%	+2.56%
	Democratic	David Garcia	994,341	41.84%	+0.22%
	Green	Angel Torres	50,962	2.14%	N/A
	None	Patrick Masoya (write-in)	177	0.01%	N/A
	None	Christian Komor (write-in)	66	0.00%	N/A
	Green	Cary D. Dolego (write-in)	13	0.00%	N/A
	Republican Takeover	Arthur Ray "RT" Arvizu (write-in)	12	0.00%	N/A
	Humanitarian	James "MarvelMan" Gibson II (write-in)	7	0.00%	N/A
Total votes			'2,376,441'	'100.0%'	N/A
	Republican hold

Voter Demographics

Edison Research exit poll

Demographic subgroup	Garcia	Ducey	No Answer	% of Voters
Gender
Men	40	58	2	47
Women	43	55	2	53
Age
18-24 years old	N/A	N/A	N/A	5
25-29 years old	N/A	N/A	N/A	4
30-39 years old	45	52	3	17
40-49 years old	43	55	2	16
50-64 years old	37	61	2	29
65 and older	40	59	1	29
Race
White	37	62	1	75
Black	N/A	N/A	N/A	2
Latino	56	44	N/A	19
Asian	N/A	N/A	N/A	1
Other	N/A	N/A	N/A	1
Race and Gender
White men	34	64	2	34
White women	39	60	1	41
Black men	N/A	N/A	N/A	1
Black women	N/A	N/A	N/A	1
Latino men	53	46	1	9
Latina women	58	42	N/A	10
Others	N/A	N/A	N/A	4
Education
High school or less	32	67	1	25
Some college education	40	58	2	28
Associate Degree	38	59	3	10
Bachelor's Degree	46	51	3	23
Advanced degree	59	40	1	14
Education and race
White college graduates	48	49	3	27
White no college degree	30	69	1	38
Non-white college graduates	51	47	2	9
Non-white no college degree	61	38	1	16
Whites by education and gender
White women with college degrees	50	49	1	15
White women without college degrees	33	66	1	26
White men with college degrees	46	49	5	12
White men without college degrees	28	72	N/A	21
Non-whites	58	40	2	25
Military service
Veteran	33	65	2	14
Non-veteran	45	54	1	86
Income
Under $30,000	36	62	2	15
$30,000-$49,999	54	45	1	19
$50,000-$99,999	46	52	2	33
$100,000-$199,999	31	67	2	24
Over $200,000	28	72	N/A	9
Party ID
Democrats	85	14	1	31
Republicans	5	95	N/A	38
Independents	45	52	3	31
Party by gender
Democratic men	77	20	3	14
Democratic women	91	9	N/A	17
Republican men	5	95	N/A	15
Republican women	4	96	N/A	23
Independent men	42	56	2	18
Independent women	48	47	5	13
Ideology
Liberals	83	16	1	22
Moderates	57	41	2	38
Conservatives	4	95	1	40
First-time midterm election voter
Yes	51	45	4	15
No	41	58	1	85
Most important issue facing the country
Health care	64	33	3	42
Immigration	8	91	1	31
Economy	38	60	2	18
Gun policy	N/A	N/A	N/A	7
Area type
Urban	52	46	2	43
Suburban	34	64	2	51
Rural	N/A	N/A	N/A	5
Source: CNN[73]

References

1. Legislatures, National Conference of State. "2018 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved 22 May 2018.
2. "Ducey 2018". www.ducey2018.com.
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13. "Governor's race". Casa Grande Dispatch. July 18, 2018.
14. "Our View: Let Ducey keep on building the Arizona economy in a second term". Today's News-Herald. October 20, 2018.
15. "Editorial: Courier offers picks in partisan races, ballot questions". The Daily Courier. October 20, 2018.
16. "Chandler Chamber announces picks for upcoming election". Wrangler News. June 22, 2018.
17. "GREATER PHOENIX CHAMBER ANNOUNCES ENDORSEMENTS FOR 2018 STATE ELECTIONS". Gilbert Chamber of Commerce. Archived from the original on 2018-09-11. Retrieved 2018-09-10.
18. "GREATER PHOENIX CHAMBER ENDORSES GOVERNOR DUCEY". phoenixchamber.com. June 28, 2018.
19. Skabelund, Adrian. "Garcia visits Flagstaff as chamber chooses Ducey for governor". Arizona Daily Sun. Retrieved 2018-11-01.
20. "Mesa Chamber Announces 2018 Candidate Endorsements". mesachamber.org. June 27, 2018.
21. "TUCSON METRO CHAMBER ENDORSES GOVERNOR DUCEY". Doug Ducey for Governor of Arizona. October 5, 2018.
22. "Border Patrol Unions Back Arizona Gov. Ducey for Re-Election". usnews.com. Associated Press. September 10, 2018.
23. "Small Business PAC Endorses Governor Ducey for Re-election". NFIB. 2018-09-26. Retrieved 2018-11-01.
24. "Arizona Firefighters Endorse Doug Ducey". Doug Ducey for Governor. 2018-10-16. Retrieved 2018-11-01.
25. "ARIZONA SHERIFFS ENDORSE GOVERNOR DUCEY". Doug Ducey for Governor of Arizona. October 4, 2018.
26. "DOUG DUCEY EARNS BIPARTISAN SUPPORT FROM BORDER MAYORS". Doug Ducey for Governor of Arizona. September 18, 2018.
27. Maria Polletta (September 26, 2018). "Cindy McCain endorses Doug Ducey in governor's race". The Arizona Republic.
28. Mike Pence. "Congratulations to @DougDucey on his primary victory tonight in Arizona. We need strong governors like Doug across this nation to help enact the @RealDonaldTrump agenda that has our economy BOOMING! We're with you all the way!". Twitter.
29. Donald J. Trump. "Governor Doug Ducey of Arizona is doing a great job. It would be really nice to show your support tomorrow by voting for him in Tuesdays Primary. Doug is strong on Crime, the Border, and our Second Amendment. Loves our Military & our Vets. He has my full and complete Endorsement". Twitter.
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35. "Valdez: Who do politicians love? Here's why you need to see the donor list". Retrieved 22 May 2018.
36. Cohen, Zach C. (December 8, 2016). "FWIW, @RepSinema (D-AZ) told me yesterday, "I am not running for governor."". Twitter. Retrieved December 8, 2016.
37. Gardiner, Dustin (November 1, 2016). "Phoenix Mayor Greg Stanton eyeing run for statewide office". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved November 4, 2016.
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46. "Endorsement". www.plannedparenthoodaction.org.
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55. "Candidate Search".
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71. Barry Hess (L) with 2%
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73. "Arizona Gubernatorial Election exit poll". CNN. Retrieved March 29, 2019.

External links

• Candidates at Vote Smart
• Candidates at Ballotpedia

Official campaign websites

• Doug Ducey (R) for Governor
• David Garcia (D) for Governor
• Angel Torres (G) for Governor
• Christian Komor (No Party)(Write-in) for Governor
• Patrick Masoya (No Party)(Write-in) for Governor