2008 United States Senate election in Texas

The 2008 United States Senate election in Texas was held on November 4, 2008. Incumbent Republican John Cornyn won re-election to a second term.

2008 United States Senate election in Texas
November 4, 2008
 
Nominee John Cornyn Rick Noriega
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 4,337,469 3,389,365
Percentage 54.8% 42.8%
County Results
Cornyn:      50-60%      60-70%      70-80%      80-90%      90-100%
Noriega:
     40-50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
U.S. senator before election

John Cornyn
Republican

 Elected U.S. Senator

John Cornyn
Republican

Elections in Texas
Government

Democratic primary

Candidates
  • Gene Kelly, U.S. Air Force veteran and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2000
  • Ray McMurrey, teacher at Mary Carroll High School
  • Rick Noriega, State Representative
  • Rhett Smith, U.S. Navy veteran and auditor at the Texas Department of Human Services

Results

Turnout, 2,178,252

Democratic primary[1]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Rick Noriega 1,110,579 51.01%
Democratic Gene Kelly 584,966 26.87%
Democratic Ray McMurrey 269,402 12.37%
Democratic Rhett Smith 213,305 9.75%

Republican primary

Candidates

Results
Republican Primary[2]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Republican John Cornyn 997,216 81.48% +4.17%
Republican Larry Kilgore 226,649 18.52% +0.00%

General election

Candidates
  • John Cornyn (R), incumbent U.S. Senator
  • Rick Noriega (D), State Representative
  • Yvonne Adams Schick (L), real estate entrepreneur[3]

Campaign

Cornyn, running as an incumbent, had a 42% approval rating with a 43% disapproval rating in June 2007.[4] Texas is a red state, that Republican presidential nominee John McCain won with over 55% of the vote. Cornyn slightly underperformed McCain. However, Noriega underperformed both 2008 Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama in Texas and Cornyn's 2002 opponent, Ron Kirk, with Noriega receiving just 42.8% of the vote.

Predictions

CQ Politics rated this race as 'Republican Favored'.[5] The Cook Political Report considered it 'Solid Republican'.[6] The Rothenberg Political Report considered it a 'Safe Republican'.[7]

Polling
Poll Source Dates administered Rick Noriega (D) John Cornyn (R)
Rasmussen September 18, 2007 30% 53%
Research 2000 September 24–26, 2007 35% 51%
Rasmussen Reports May 1, 2008 43% 47%
Research 2000/Daily Kos May 5–7, 2008 44% 48%
Baselice & Associates May 20–25, 2008 33% 49%
Rasmussen Reports June 2, 2008 35% 52%
Rasmussen Reports June 25, 2008 35% 48%
Rasmussen Reports July 30, 2008 39% 50%
Rasmussen Reports September 29, 2008 43% 50%
Rasmussen Reports October 21, 2008 40% 55%

Results
2008 Texas U.S. Senate general election
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Republican John Cornyn 4,337,469 54.82% -0.48%
Democratic Rick Noriega 3,389,365 42.84% -0.50%
Libertarian Yvonne Adams Schick 185,241 2.34% +1.55%
Majority 948,104
Turnout 7,912,075 58.28%
Republican hold Swing

References
  1. http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=294945
  2. http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=294946
  3. http://nl.newsbank.com/nl-search/we/Archives?p_product=DM&p_theme=dm&p_action=search&p_maxdocs=200&p_topdoc=1&p_text_direct-0=123C9994B0E36568&p_field_direct-0=document_id&p_perpage=10&p_sort=YMD_date:D&s_trackval=GooglePM
  4. Survey USA
  5. Race Ratings Chart: Senate Archived October 28, 2010, at the Wayback Machine CQ Politics
  6. 2008 Senate Race Ratings Archived November 20, 2008, at the Wayback Machine The Cook Political Report, October 9, 2008
  7. 2008 Senate Ratings The Rothenberg Political Report, September 29, 2008
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