2020 United States presidential election in Iowa

The 2020 United States presidential election in Iowa is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate.[1] Iowa voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Iowa has 6 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]

Main article: 2020 United States presidential election

2020 United States presidential election in Iowa

November 3, 2020
Turnout	%
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden Party Republican Democratic Home state Florida Delaware Running mate Mike Pence Kamala Harris
Incumbent President Donald Trump Republican

Caucuses

The state's caucuses, traditionally the first major electoral event in the country, were held on February 3, 2020.[3]

Republican caucuses

Incumbent president Donald Trump received about 97 percent of the votes in the Republican caucuses, and received 39 of the GOP delegates, while Bill Weld received enough votes to clinch 1 delegate.[4]

This section is an excerpt from 2020 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses[edit]

Counties won by these popular vote results

Map legend

•   Trump—100%
•   Trump—≥95%
•   Trump—90–95%
•   Trump—85–90%

Congressional districts won by these popular vote results

Map legend

•   Trump—≥95%

2020 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses[5][6]

Candidate	Votes	%	Estimated delegates
Donald Trump	31,465	97.1	39
William Weld	426	1.3	1
Joe Walsh	348	1.1	0
Other	151	0.5	0
Total	32,389	100%	40

Democratic caucuses

After a three-day delay in votes being reported, the Iowa Democratic Party declared that Pete Buttigieg had narrowly won the state delegate equivalent (SDE) count of the Democratic caucuses with 26.2 percent. Bernie Sanders came in second with 26.1 percent of the SDEs, despite the fact that he received more popular votes (26.5 percent) than Buttigieg (25.1 percent). Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden, and Amy Klobuchar finished in third, fourth, and fifth place, respectively.[7]

This section is an excerpt from 2020 Iowa Democratic presidential caucuses[edit]

2020 Iowa Democratic presidential caucuses[8][9][10]

Candidate	Initial alignment		Final alignment[lower-alpha 1]		State delegate equivalents		Pledged national convention delegates[11][lower-alpha 2]
	Votes	%	Votes	%	Number	%
Joe Biden	26,291	14.9	23,605	13.7	340.3238	15.8	14
Bernie Sanders	43,581	24.7	45,652	26.5	562.0214	26.13	12
Pete Buttigieg	37,572	21.3	43,209	25.1	562.9538	26.17	9
Elizabeth Warren	32,589	18.5	34,909	20.3	388.4403	18.1	5
Amy Klobuchar	22,454	12.7	21,100	12.2	263.8689	12.3	[lower-alpha 3]1
Andrew Yang	8,914	5.1	1,758	1.0	21.8559	1.0
Tom Steyer	3,061	1.7	413	0.2	6.6189	0.3
Michael Bloomberg	212	0.1	16	0.0	0.2096	0.0
Tulsi Gabbard	341	0.2	16	0.0	0.1143	0.0
Michael Bennet	164	0.1	4	0.0	0.0000	0.0
Deval Patrick	9	0.0	0	0.0	0.0000	0.0
Uncommitted	1,009	0.6	1,420	0.8	3.7321	0.2
Other / Write in	155	0.1	198	0.1	0.6931	0.0
Totals[lower-alpha 4]	176,352	100%	172,300	100%	2,150.8321	100%	41

Libertarian caucuses

The Libertarian Party of Iowa conducted their own caucuses on February 8, offering in-person caucus locations and an online virtual caucus. Only registered Libertarian voters were eligible to participate.[13][14]

Election results by county.

  Jacob Hornberger

  Ken Armstrong

  Dan Behrman

  Lincoln Chafee

  Jo Jorgensen

  Adam Kokesh

  John McAfee

  Sam Robb

  Vermin Supreme

  Tie

  No votes

Iowa Libertarian presidential caucus, February 8, 2020[15]
Candidate	Votes	Percentage
Jacob Hornberger	133	47.52%
Lincoln Chafee	36	12.77%
Jo Jorgensen	18	6.38%
Adam Kokesh	17	6.03%
Dan Behrman	14	4.96%
John McAfee	10	3.55%
Vermin Supreme	9	3.19%
Other (write-in)	8	2.84%
None of the above	8	2.84%
Sam Robb	7	2.48%
Max Abramson	6	2.13%
Mark Whitney	4	1.42%
Arvin Vohra	3	1.06%
Ken Armstrong	2	0.71%
Souraya Faas	2	0.71%
Benjamin Leder	1	0.35%
John Monds	1	0.35%
Total	281	100%

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[16]	Lean R	July 23, 2020
Inside Elections[17]	Tilt R	July 17, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[18]	Lean R	July 14, 2020
Politico[19]	Lean R	July 6, 2020
RCP[20]	Tossup	August 3, 2020
Niskanen[21]	Tossup	March 24, 2020
CNN[22]	Lean R	August 3, 2020
The Economist[23]	Tossup	August 7, 2020
CBS News[24]	Lean R	August 9, 2020
270towin[25]	Lean R	August 2, 2020
ABC News[26]	Lean R	July 31, 2020
NPR[27]	Lean R	August 3, 2020
NBC News[28]	Tossup	August 6, 2020
538[29]	Tilt R	August 14, 2020

Polling

Aggregate polls

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Joe Biden	Donald Trump	Other/Undecided[lower-alpha 5]	Margin
270 to Win	July 11, 2020 – August 3, 2020	August 5, 2020	46.7%	47.3%	6.0%	Trump +0.6
FiveThirtyEight	June 6, 2020 – August 3, 2020	August 10, 2020	44.9%	46.2%	8.9%	Trump +1.3
Real Clear Politics	April 30, 2020 – August 3, 2020	August 5, 2020	45.0%	46.7%	8.3%	Trump +1.7
Average			45.5%	46.7%	7.8%	Trump +1.2

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 6]	Margin of error	Donald Trump (R)	Joe Biden (D)	Other	Undecided
Data for Progress	Jul 24 – Aug 2, 2020	1,101 (LV)	–	46%	45%	–	9%
				44%	42%	4%[lower-alpha 7]	10%
Monmouth University	Jul 30 – Aug 3, 2020	401 (RV)	± 4.9%	48%	45%	4%[lower-alpha 8]	3%
David Binder Research	Jul 30–31, 2020	200 (LV)	–	43%	49%	–	–
RMG Rsearch	Jul 27–30, 2020	500 (RV)	± 4.5%	41%	40%	7%	13%
Public Policy Polling	Jul 23–24, 2020	1,118 (V)	–	48%	47%	–	6%
Spry Strategies (R)	Jul 11–16, 2020	701 (LV)	± 3.7%	46%	48%	–	7%
Selzer/Des Moines Register	Jun 7–10, 2020	674 (LV)	± 3.8%	44%	43%	10%[lower-alpha 9]	3%
Civiqs/Daily Kos	Jun 6–8, 2020	865 (RV)	± 3.8%	46%	46%	7%[lower-alpha 10]	1%
Public Policy Polling/Emily's List[upper-alpha 1]	Jun 3–4, 2020	963 (V)	–	48%	47%	–	5%
Public Policy Polling	Apr 30 – May 1, 2020	1,222 (V)	± 2.8%	48%	46%	–	6%
GBAO Strategies/PLUS Paid Family Leave	Apr 13–16, 2020	500 (LV)	–	48%	45%	1%	6%
Selzer/Des Moines Register	Mar 2–5, 2020	667 (LV)	± 3.8%	51%	41%	–	–
The New York Times/Siena College	Jan 20–23, 2020	1,689 (RV)	± 2.8%	46%	44%	5%[lower-alpha 11]	6%
Public Policy Polling	Dec 29–31, 2019	964 (V)	–	49%	46%	–	5%
Emerson College	Dec 7–10, 2019	1,043 (RV)	± 3%	49%	45%	–	6%
NYT Upshot/Siena College	Oct 25–30, 2019	1,435	± 3.1%	45%	44%	3%	5%
Emerson College	Oct 13–16, 2019	888 (RV)	± 3.2%	51%	49%	–	–
WPA Intelligence (R)	Apr 27–30, 2019	200	± 6.9%	49%	44%	–	5%
Emerson College	Mar 21–24, 2019	707	± 3.6%	47%	53%	–	–
Emerson College	Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019	831	± 3.4%	49%	51%	–	–

1. Emily's List is an organisation that supports Democratic female candidates

Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 6] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Michael Bloomberg (D) Other Undecided Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co. Mar 2–5, 2020 667 (LV) ± 3.8% 53%[lower-alpha 12] 34% – – The New York Times/Siena College Jan 20–23, 2020 1,689 (RV) ± 2.8% 47% 39% 7%[lower-alpha 13] 8% Donald Trump vs. Cory Booker Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 6] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Cory Booker (D) Undecided Emerson College Mar 21–24, 2019 707 ± 3.6% 52% 48% – Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 6] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Pete Buttigieg (D) Other Undecided The New York Times/Siena College Jan 20–23, 2020 1,689 (RV) ± 2.8% 45% 44% 4%[lower-alpha 14] 7% Public Policy Polling Jan 2–4, 2020 964 (V) – 48% 47% – 5% Emerson College Dec 7–10, 2019 1,043 (RV) ± 3% 46% 45% – 9% NYT Upshot/Siena College Oct 25–30, 2019 1,435 ± 3.1% 45% 41% 3% 8% Donald Trump vs. Kirsten Gillibrand Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 6] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Kirsten Gillibrand (D) Undecided Emerson College Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019 831 ± 3.4% 54% 46% – Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 6] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Kamala Harris (D) Undecided Emerson College Mar 21–24, 2019 707 ± 3.6% 54% 46% – Emerson College Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019 831 ± 3.4% 53% 47% – Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 6] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Amy Klobuchar (D) Other Undecided The New York Times/Siena College Jan 20–23, 2020 1,689 (RV) ± 2.8% 46% 41% 5%[lower-alpha 15] 8% Donald Trump vs. Beto O'Rourke Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 6] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Beto O'Rourke (D) Undecided Emerson College Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019 831 ± 3.4% 53% 47% – Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 6] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Bernie Sanders (D) Other Undecided Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co. Mar 2–5, 2020 667 (LV) ± 3.8% 53% 41% – – The New York Times/Siena College Jan 20–23, 2020 1,689 (RV) ± 2.8% 48% 42% 4%[lower-alpha 16] 6% Public Policy Polling Dec 29–31, 2019 964 (V) – 49% 44% – 7% Emerson College Dec 7–10, 2019 1,043 (RV) ± 3% 50% 43% – 7% NYT Upshot/Siena College Oct 25–30, 2019 1,435 ± 3.1% 47% 43% 3% 4% Emerson College Oct 13–16, 2019 888 (RV) ± 3.2% 49% 51% – – Emerson College Mar 21–24, 2019 707 ± 3.6% 49% 51% – – Emerson College Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019 831 ± 3.4% 51% 50% – – Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 6] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Elizabeth Warren (D) Other Undecided Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co. Mar 2–5, 2020 667 (LV) ± 3.8% 52%[lower-alpha 17] 40% – – The New York Times/Siena College Jan 20–23, 2020 1,689 (RV) ± 2.8% 47% 42% 5%[lower-alpha 18] 7% Public Policy Polling Jan 2–4, 2020 964 (V) – 49% 44% – 7% Emerson College Dec 7–10, 2019 1,043 (RV) ± 3% 50% 43% ± 3% 7% NYT Upshot/Siena College Oct 25–30, 2019 1,435 ± 3.1% 47% 40% 2% 7% Emerson College Oct 13–16, 2019 888 (RV) ± 3.2% 51% 49% – – Emerson College Mar 21–24, 2019 707 ± 3.6% 51% 49% – – Emerson College Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019 831 ± 3.4% 52% 48% – –

Hypothetical polling

with Donald Trump and Sherrod Brown Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 6] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Sherrod Brown (D) Undecided Emerson College Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019 831 ± 3.4% 55% 46% – with Donald Trump and Nancy Pelosi Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 6] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Nancy Pelosi (D) Undecided Emerson College Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019 831 ± 3.4% 55% 45% – with Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders, and Howard Schultz Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 6] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Bernie Sanders (D) Howard Schultz (I) Undecided Emerson College Mar 21–24, 2019 707 ± 3.6% 47% 46% 8% – with Donald Trump, Elizabeth Warren, and Howard Schultz Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 6] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Elizabeth Warren (D) Howard Schultz (I) Undecided Emerson College Mar 21–24, 2019 707 ± 3.6% 48% 45% 7% – Emerson College Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019 831 ± 3.4% 49% 40% 11% – with Donald Trump and generic Democrat Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 6] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Generic Democrat Undecided Public Policy Polling/End Citizens United[lower-alpha 19] Dec 13-15, 2019 944 (V) – 47% 49% 3% Public Policy Polling Apr 29–30, 2019 780 ± 3.5% 48% 48% –

See also

• 2020 United States presidential election
• 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2020 United States elections

Notes

1. Final vote after votes for candidates below the 15% viability threshold in each precinct are reallocated to other viable candidates.
2. 5 delegates initially awarded to Buttigieg and 3 delegates initially awarded to Warren were reallocated to Biden at the district conventions on April 25.
3. All presidential candidates winning less than a 15% share of SDEs statewide and in CD1, CD2, CD3, CD4, will win 0 pledged national convention delegates. Klobuchar did not exceed 15% statewide, or in the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd congressional districts, where her SDE-result was eliminated (meaning she won 0 pledged national convention delegates here). Klobuchar however had "qualified SDEs" above 15% in the 4th congressional district, where she proportionally won 1 out of 5 available delegates. So despite the fact that Klobuchar won 12.3% of all SDE totals statewide, she only won 2.4% (​¹⁄₄₁) of the pledged national convention delegates available in Iowa.[12]
4. Per the Iowa Democratic Party official report.[9]
5. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
6. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
7. "Jo Jorgensen" 3%; "Howie Hawkins" 1%
8. "Jo Jorgensen" with 3%; "Other" 1%
9. "Someone else" with 9%; would not vote with 1%
10. "Someone else" with 7%
11. Other with 2%; would not vote with 3%
12. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEIght
13. Other with 3%; would not vote with 4%
14. Other with 1%; would not vote with 3%
15. Other with 2%; would not vote with 3%
16. Other with 2%; would not vote with 2%
17. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEIght
18. Other with 2%; would not vote with 3%
19. End Citizens United PAC has exclusively endorsed Democratic candidates

References

1. Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
2. "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
3. Pfannenstiel, Brianne (August 25, 2018). "Countdown begins to 2020: Date of Iowa Democratic caucuses set for Feb. 3". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
4. "Live Results:Iowa Republican Caucuses". The New York Times. February 3, 2020. Retrieved February 3, 2020.
5. "Iowa Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved February 12, 2020.
6. "Live Results:Iowa Republican Caucuses". The New York Times. February 3, 2020. Retrieved February 3, 2020.
7. "Iowa caucus results: Buttigieg, Sanders in a near tie, with 100% of results published". USA TODAY. February 6, 2020. Retrieved February 7, 2020.
8. "Live: Iowa Caucus Results 2020". The New York Times. Retrieved February 27, 2020.
9. "IDP Caucus 2020 (100% reporting: 1765 of 1765 precincts)". Iowa Democratic Party. Retrieved February 20, 2020.
10. Levy, Adam; Merica, Dan (March 1, 2020). "Iowa Democratic Party certifies Buttigieg's Iowa lead amid Sanders challenge". CNN.com. Retrieved March 1, 2020.
11. "2020 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions: Iowa Democrat". The Green Papers. Retrieved 4 July 2020.
12. "Iowa Democratic Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. February 6, 2020. Retrieved February 6, 2020.
13. "Libertarian's announce caucus results". Knoxville Journal Express. February 10, 2020. Retrieved February 18, 2020.
14. McDaniel, Tiffany (February 10, 2020). "Low voter turnout at the Iowa Libertarian Party Caucus". The Oskaloosa Herald. Retrieved February 18, 2020.
15. Howe, Joseph (February 8, 2020). "Libertarian Party Of Iowa Presidential Caucus Winner And Results". Libertarian Party of Iowa. Retrieved February 8, 2020.
16. "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
17. "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
18. "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
19. "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
20. "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
21. 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
22. David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved 2020-06-16.
23. "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved 7 July 2020.
24. "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
25. "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
26. "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
27. "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved 2020-08-03.
28. "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved 2020-08-06.
29. "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved 14 August 2020.