2020 Montana gubernatorial election
The 2020 Montana gubernatorial election will be held on November 3, 2020, to elect the next Governor of Montana, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic Governor Steve Bullock, who is term-limited and cannot seek reelection to a third consecutive term, is instead seeking Montana's Class II Senate seat[1][2][3] after a short campaign for President of the United States.[4] Bullock is the only incumbent governor in the United States (not counting U.S. territories) who is term-limited in 2020.
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Elections in Montana | ||||||||||
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Bullock's lieutenant governor, Mike Cooney, is the Democratic nominee. The Republican nominee is Montana at-large congressman Greg Gianforte, who became a controversial figure for body slamming a reporter the day of a 2017 special election.[5]
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Mike Cooney, Lieutenant Governor of Montana and former Secretary of State of Montana[6]
- Running mate: Casey Schreiner, Minority Leader of the Montana House of Representatives[7]
Eliminated in primary
- Whitney Williams, businesswoman and daughter of former U.S. Representative Pat Williams[8]
- Running mate: Buzz Mattelin, farmer and president of the National Barley Growers Association
Withdrawn
- Reilly Neill, former state representative[9][10]
- Casey Schreiner, Minority Leader of the Montana House of Representatives (running for Lieutenant Governor)[11][12]
Declined
- Ryan Busse, businessman[13][14]
- Wilmot Collins, Mayor of Helena and former 2020 candidate for the U.S. Senate[15]
- John Heenan, attorney and candidate for Montana's at-large congressional district in 2018[16]
- Michael Punke, writer and former U.S. Ambassador to the World Trade Organization[17][18]
- Brian Schweitzer, former Governor of Montana (endorsed Williams)[19]
- Kathleen Williams, former state representative and nominee for Montana's at-large congressional district in 2018 (running for the U.S. House)[20]
Endorsements
Mike Cooney |
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Whitney Williams |
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Polling
Polls with a sample size of <100 have their sample size entries marked in red to indicate a lack of reliability.
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Mike Cooney |
Reilly Neill |
Casey Schreiner |
Whitney Williams |
Other / Undecided |
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Montana State University Billings | October 7–16, 2019 | 40 (LV) | – | 19% | 2% | 6% | 11% | 62% |
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
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Democratic | Mike Cooney | 81,527 | 54.86% | |
Democratic | Whitney Williams | 67,066 | 45.14% | |
Total votes | 148,593 | 100.00% |
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Greg Gianforte, incumbent U.S. Representative for Montana's at-large congressional district and nominee for Governor of Montana in 2016[33][34]
- Running mate: Kristen Juras, businesswoman and attorney[35]
Eliminated in primary
- Running mate: Jon Knokey, former state representative
- Albert Olszewski, state senator[36][33][16][38]
- Running mate: Kenneth Bogner, state senator[39]
Withdrawn
- Corey Stapleton, Secretary of State of Montana, candidate for Governor of Montana in 2012 and candidate for the U.S. House in 2014 (running for the U.S. House)[40]
- Gary Perry, former state senator[38][41]
- Pete Ziehli[38][41]
Declined
- Matt Rosendale, Montana State Auditor and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2018 (running for the U.S. House)[42]
- Ryan Zinke, former United States Secretary of Interior and former U.S. Representative for Montana's at-large congressional district[43][44]
Endorsements
Greg Gianforte |
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Polling
Polls with a sample size of <100 have their sample size entries marked in red to indicate a lack of reliability.
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Tim Fox |
Greg Gianforte |
Albert Olszewski |
Other / Undecided |
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Montana State University Billings | October 7–16, 2019 | 99 (LV) | – | 25% | 33% | 9% | 32% |
Gravis Marketing | August 28–30, 2019 | 433 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 29% | 56% | 15% | – |
Moore Information[upper-alpha 1] | July 7–10, 2019 | 400 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 17% | 56% | 5% | 23% |
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
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Republican | Greg Gianforte | 119,247 | 53.44% | |
Republican | Tim Fox | 60,823 | 27.26% | |
Republican | Albert Olszewski | 43,062 | 19.30% | |
Total votes | 223,132 | 100.00% |
Other candidates
Libertarian Party
Nominee
- Lyman Bishop, founder and CEO of Hoplite Armor[47]
- Running mate: John Nesper
Withdrawn
Green Party
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
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Green | Robert Barb | 713 | 100.0% | |
Total votes | 713 | 100.0% |
General election
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
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The Cook Political Report[52] | Tossup | April 3, 2020 |
Inside Elections[53] | Tossup | June 19, 2020 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[54] | Tossup | July 14, 2020 |
Politico[55] | Lean R (flip) | July 6, 2020 |
Daily Kos[56] | Lean R (flip) | July 22, 2020 |
RCP[57] | Tossup | July 29, 2020 |
Endorsements
Mike Cooney (D) |
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Greg Gianforte (R) |
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Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Mike Cooney (D) |
Greg Gianforte (R) |
Other / Undecided |
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Emerson College | July 31 – August 2, 2020 | 584 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 50% | 10% |
Civiqs/Daily Kos | July 11–13, 2020 | 873 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 44% | 47% | 9%[lower-alpha 2] |
Public Policy Polling[upper-alpha 2] | July 9–10, 2020 | 1,224 (V) | ± 2.8% | 42% | 46% | 12%[lower-alpha 3] |
University of Montana | June 17–26, 2020 | 517 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 36% | 46% | 18%[lower-alpha 4] |
The Progress Campaign (D) | April 14–21, 2020 | 1,712 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 41% | 43% | 16%[lower-alpha 5] |
Hypothetical polling with former candidates | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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University of Montana polls did not account for the withdrawals of Democratic and Republican candidates after they lost their primaries.
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Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ± | |
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Democratic | Mike Cooney | ||||
Republican | Greg Gianforte | ||||
Libertarian | Lyman Bishop | ||||
Write-in | |||||
Total votes | 100.00% |
Notes
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - "Someone else" with 5%; Undecided with 4%
- Undecided with 12%
- Undecided with 18.3%
- Undecided with 16%
- Cooney with 21%; Williams with 14.1%
- Gianforte with 35%; Fox with 21.6%; Olszewski with 6.9%
- Cooney with 23%; Williams with 7.9%; Schreiner with 6%; Neill with 3.1%
- Gianforte with 35.1%; Fox with 16.1%; Olszewski with 8.1%; Perry with 0.8%
- Kathleen Williams with 26.6%; Cooney with 5.2%; Whitney Williams with 0.6%
- Fox with 16.8%; Gianforte with 16.1%; Stapleton with 8%; Rosendale with 7.5%
- "Someone else" with 15.4%; "none/do not plan to vote" with 3.8%
- Partisan clients
- Commissioned by Gianforte
- Poll's funding was crowdsourced by Election Twitter.
References
- Nilsen, Ella (March 9, 2020). "Gov. Steve Bullock just made the Montana Senate race competitive for Democrats". Vox.
- Arkin, James (March 9, 2020). "Bullock enters Montana Senate race". POLITICO.
- Pramuk, Jacob (March 9, 2020). "Montana Gov. Steve Bullock launches Senate bid, a boost in Democrats' push for majority". CNBC.
- Weigel, David. "Montana Gov. Steve Bullock drops out of presidential race". Washington Post. Retrieved December 2, 2019.
- Bozeman Daily Chronicle, Whitney Bermes, October 11, 2017, Judge releases Congressman Gianforte's mugshot, Retrieved October 11, 2017.
- "Montana lieutenant governor joins governor's race". Associated Press. July 3, 2019. Retrieved July 3, 2019.
- Cates-Carney, Corin (February 28, 2020). "Cooney Names Schreiner As Running Mate In Gov Race". mtpr.org. Montana Public Radio.
- Volz, Matt (October 3, 2019). "Williams now 4th Democrat in governor's race". Great Falls Tribune. Associated Press. Retrieved October 3, 2019.
- Press, The Associated (January 22, 2020). "Former Montana lawmaker Neill drops out of governor's race". KECI.
- Drake, Phil (January 21, 2020). "Democrat Neill drops from Montana governor's race". Great Falls Tribune.
- Bridge, Thom (February 3, 2020). "Casey Schreiner ends Montana gubernatorial campaign". The Missoulian. Retrieved February 3, 2019.
- Michels, Holly. "Cooney picks Schreiner as running mate in race for governor". Montana Standard. Retrieved 29 February 2020.
- Kondik, Kyle (December 6, 2018). "Governors 2019-2020: Democrats try to hold the line in red-state battles". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved December 7, 2018.
- Kondik, Kyle (December 6, 2018). "Governors 2019-2020: Democrats try to hold the line in red-state battles". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved December 7, 2018.
- Hanson, Amy Beth (May 13, 2019). "Mayor who was refugee from Liberia announces run for Senate". Associated Press. Retrieved May 13, 2019.
- Dennison, Mike (March 20, 2019). "Montana 2020: Gianforte gubernatorial run would have 'domino effect' on statewide races". KRTV. Retrieved March 21, 2019.
- Lippman, Daniel (May 10, 2019). "'The Revenant' author considering run for Montana Senate or governor". Politico. Retrieved May 10, 2019.
- Punke, Michael (2019-06-23). "As my friends and family know, I have been considering a run for Montana's senator or governor. I'm grateful for the encouragement I received. I have decided not to seek election this cycle. For my family &me, it's not the right time. Thx to all who offered advice &encouragement". @MPunke. Retrieved 2019-06-23.
- Ambarian, Jonathon (February 27, 2020). "Democratic gubernatorial candidate Williams gets endorsement from former Gov. Schweitzer". KPAX.
- "Williams launches new bid for Montana US House seat". KECI. Associated Press. April 5, 2019. Retrieved April 5, 2019.
- Cates-Carney, Corin (October 25, 2019). "Gov. Bullock Endorses Lt. Gov. Cooney In Gubernatorial Race". mtpr.org. Montana Public Radio.
- "Mike Cooney". ballotpedia.org.
- "Rep. Dunwell endorses Cooney for governor". cooneyformontana.com. January 18, 2020.
- "Tester endorses Cooney in contested Democratic gov primary". ktvh.com. April 29, 2020.
- Cooney, Mike (February 24, 2020). "I'm so humbled to have the support of my friend and mentor former Senator Max Baucus for this campaign. Max knows how we win tough races in Montana: by showing up, by putting in the hard work, and by listening to all Montanans #mtpol #mtgov…".
- "AFL-CIO endorses Cooney, Schreiner=". newsbreak.com.
- "Mike Cooney's Momentum Grows with Three Big Labor Endorsements". cooneyformontana.com. April 8, 2020.
- Williams, Whitney (October 28, 2019). "From her childhood in Browning to her election as the first Native American woman elected to statewide executive office, Denise has always tackled Montana's challenges with grit and determination — leaving a trailblazing legacy. I am so proud she's on #TeamWhitney. #MTpol". @WhitneyforMT. Twitter.
- Engen, John (November 12, 2019). "Guest view: Missoula's mayor on why Whitney Williams should be Montana's next governor". Montana Standard.
- "Twitter".
- Schriock, Stephanie (October 8, 2019). "EMILY's List Endorses Whitney Williams for Montana Governor". emilyslist.org. EMILY's List.
- "Montana Governor Primary Election Results". New York Times. Retrieved June 2, 2020.
- "Gianforte files fundraising paperwork to run for governor in 2020". KTVH.com. 2019-06-06. Retrieved 2019-06-07.
- Michels, Holly K. (June 7, 2019). "Gianforte files to run for governor in 2020". Independent Record.
- Drake, Phil (March 1, 2020). "Gianforte names Great Falls attorney Kristen Juras as lieutenant governor running mate". Great Falls Tribune. Retrieved May 26, 2020.
- "Montana's 2020 governor's race: Buckle up". KTVQ.com. 2019-03-28. Retrieved 2019-03-28.
- Dennison, Mike (January 24, 2019). "Attorney General Fox launches gubernatorial bid". KRTV. Retrieved January 24, 2019.
- patrick.reilly@missoulian.com, PATRICK REILLY. "Fox unfazed by prospect that Gianforte may enter Montana's race for governor". Helena Independent Record. Retrieved 2019-03-25.
- Drake, Phil (October 4, 2019). "Olszewski picks Bogner to run as lieutenant governor". Great Falls Tribune. Retrieved May 26, 2020.
- Drake, Phil (June 15, 2019). "Stapleton announces run for U.S. House seat". Great Falls Tribune. Retrieved June 15, 2019.
- https://fox28spokane.com/fox-has-212k-in-bank-as-gop-governors-race-narrows/%7Ctitle=Fox has 212k in bank as GOP governor's race narrows|publisher=fox28spokane.com|date=July 5, 2019|accessdate=July 9, 2019
- Pathé, Simone (June 17, 2019). "On heels of Senate loss, Matt Rosendale running for Congress — again". Roll Call. Retrieved June 17, 2019.
- "Zinke says he won't run for Montana governor in 2020". Great Falls Tribune. Associated Press. November 9, 2018. Retrieved November 12, 2018.
- Lefebvre, Ben (November 8, 2018). "Zinke prepares to leave Trump's Cabinet". Politico. Retrieved November 12, 2018.
- Trump, Donald Jr. "Montana's A-Team: Daines, Rosendale, Gianforte". missoulian.com. Retrieved 22 December 2019.
- "Greg Gianforte".
- Michels, Holly K. (March 10, 2020). "Filing deadline for Montana ballot sees last-minute surprises". Bozeman Daily Chronicle.
- "Former Democratic legislator to run for Montana governor". The Missoulian. Associated Press. June 10, 2019. Retrieved June 10, 2019.
- Drake, Phil (February 9, 2020). "So what would you do? Candidates asked about Garcia". Great Falls Tribune. Retrieved April 24, 2020.
- Maag, Brittony (March 26, 2020). "Seven candidates file to run for governor of Montana". Ballotpedia News. Retrieved April 24, 2020.
- Michels, Holly (August 7, 2020). "Helena judge again takes Green Party off the ballot". Helena Independent Record. Retrieved August 7, 2020.
- "2020 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 15, 2019.
- "Gubernatorial Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved 2019-03-16.
- "2020 Governor". Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball. 2019-08-22. Retrieved 2019-09-26.
- "We rated every gubernatorial race in 2020. Here's who we think will win". Poltico. Retrieved November 19, 2019.
- "2020 Governor Race Ratings". Daily Kos. June 1, 2020. Retrieved June 5, 2020.
- "2020 Govenor's Races". RealClearPolitics. June 13, 2020. Retrieved June 14, 2020.
- Cates-Carney, Corin (October 25, 2019). "Gov. Bullock Endorses Lt. Gov. Cooney In Gubernatorial Race". mtpr.org. Montana Public Radio.
- https://twitter.com/PhilMurphyNJ/status/1268198714960678912
- "Rep. Dunwell endorses Cooney for governor". cooneyformontana.com. January 18, 2020.
- "Tester endorses Cooney in contested Democratic gov primary". ktvh.com. April 29, 2020.
- https://mobile.twitter.com/CooneyforMT/status/1268987397405982720
- "AFL-CIO endorses Cooney, Schreiner=". newsbreak.com.
- "AFL-CIO endorses Cooney, Schreiner=". newsbreak.com.
- https://twitter.com/MTvoters/status/1270377189586792449. Missing or empty
|title=
(help) - Trump, Donald Jr. "Montana's A-Team: Daines, Rosendale, Gianforte". missoulian.com. Retrieved 22 December 2019.
- "Greg Gianforte".
External links
- Official campaign websites