2020 United States Senate election in Tennessee

The 2020 United States Senate election in Tennessee will be held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Tennessee, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican Senator Lamar Alexander announced that he would not run for reelection on December 17, 2018.[1]

2020 United States Senate election in Tennessee
November 3, 2020
 
Nominee Bill Hagerty Marquita Bradshaw
Party Republican Democratic
Incumbent U.S. senator

Lamar Alexander
Republican
Elections in Tennessee
Government

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee
  • Bill Hagerty, businessman, former United States Ambassador to Japan and former Commissioner of the Tennessee Department of Economic and Community Development[2][3]

Eliminated in primary
  • Cliff Adkins[4]
  • Natisha Brooks[4]
  • Byron Bush, dentist[5]
  • Roy Dale Cope, small business owner and pharmacist[6][7]
  • Terry Dicus, attorney[7]
  • Tom Emerson, Jr., Tea Party candidate for U.S. Senate in 2014[8]
  • George Flinn, Jr., former Shelby County commissioner, Nixon Admin. Official, physician, engineer, businessman, and republican candidate in Tennessee's 8th congressional district in 2016 and 2018[9]
  • Jon Henry, U.S. Marine Corps veteran[9]
  • Kent Morrell, business owner[9]
  • Glen Neal, Jr., retired public servant[9]
  • John Osborne, real estate agent and business owner[9]
  • Aaron Pettigrew, truck driver[10]
  • David Schuster, U.S. Navy veteran[8]
  • Manny Sethi, orthopedic surgeon, director of the Vanderbilt Orthopedic Institute Center for Health Policy, and founder and President of the non-profit Healthy Tennessee[11]

Disqualified from the primary ballot

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements
Bill Hagerty
Federal Officials
Governors
State Officials
Local Officials
  • Roane County Commissioner Randy Ellis[38]
  • Sandy Still[38]
  • Cary Vaughn[38]
Law Enforcement
  • Putnam County Sheriff Eddie Farris[39]
Individuals
Organizations
Manny Sethi
Federal Officials
Governors
State Officials
Mayors
Local Officials
Military
Religious Leaders
  • Jeffery Heard, reverend[55]
  • Louie Johnston Jr., reverend[53]
  • Marty Layton, reverend[53]
Individuals
Media
  • Mic Drop Radio, conservative podcast [60]

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 George Flinn Bill Hagerty Manny Sethi Other Undecided
JMC Analytics and Polling July 18–19, 2020 600 (LV) ±  4.0% 5% 36% 32% 9% 20%
The Trafalgar Group July 6–8, 2020 1,062 (LV) ±  2.92% 4% 42% 39% 2% 13%
Victory Phones[upper-alpha 1] June 30 – July 1, 2020 800 (LV) ±  3.46% 6% 33% 31% – 30%
The Tarrance Group[upper-alpha 2] June 28–30, 2020 651 (LV) ±  4.0% 5% 46% 29% 2%[lower-alpha 2] 18%
Victory Phones[upper-alpha 1] June 2, 2020 –[lower-alpha 3] – – 27% 11% – –
Hypothetical polling
with Mark Green and Bill Haslam
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Mark
Green		 Bill
Haslam		 Undecided
Triton/Tennessee Star April 13–16, 2019 1,003 (LV) ± 3.1% 30% 39% ~30%

Results
Results by county:
Republican primary results[61]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Bill Hagerty 331,064 50.76%
Republican Manny Sethi 256,939 39.39%
Republican George Flinn, Jr. 22,430 3.44%
Republican Jon Henry 8,101 1.24%
Republican Natisha Brooks 8,053 1.23%
Republican Byron Bush 5,416 0.83%
Republican Clifford Adkins 5,317 0.82%
Republican Terry Dicus 2,329 0.36%
Republican Tom Emerson, Jr. 2,249 0.34%
Republican David Schuster 2,049 0.31%
Republican John Osborne 1,875 0.29%
Republican Roy Dale Cope 1,790 0.27%
Republican Kent Morrell 1,767 0.27%
Republican Aaron Pettigrew 1,624 0.25%
Republican Glen Neal, Jr. 1,233 0.19%
Total votes 652,236 100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee
  • Marquita Bradshaw, environmentalist[62]

Eliminated in primary
  • Gary G. Davis, small business owner, baker, pilot, and perennial candidate[63]
  • Robin Kimbrough Hayes, attorney and clergy[64]
  • James Mackler, attorney, U.S. Army veteran, and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018[2][65][66]
  • Mark Pickrell, entrepreneur, attorney and Baptist deacon[67]

Disqualified from the primary ballot
  • Tharon Chandler, journalist, economist and conservationist[68]

Withdrawn
  • Diana C. Onyejiaka, college professor and consultant

Declined

Endorsements
Robin Kimbrough Hayes
Organizations
James Mackler
Federal officials
Statewide officials
Individuals
Organizations
Marquita Bradshaw
Organizations

Results
Results by county:
Democratic primary results[61]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Marquita Bradshaw 117,413 35.51%
Democratic Robin Kimbrough Hayes 87,995 26.61%
Democratic James Mackler 78,550 23.76%
Democratic Gary G. Davis 30,698 9.28%
Democratic Mark Pickrell 16,010 4.84%
Total votes 330,666 100.00%

Independents

Declared
  • Yomi Faparusi, physician, attorney, researcher, and former Republican candidate for Tennessee's 4th congressional district in 2014 and 2016[8]
  • Jeffrey Grunau, activist[8]
  • Ronnie Henley,[8]
  • Dean Hill, US veteran, former federal employee, and activist[8]
  • Steven Hooper[8]
  • Aaron James[8]
  • Elizabeth Macleod, conservative activist[8]
  • Eric William Stansberry[8]

Withdrawn
  • Tom Kovach, attorney[84][8]
  • Kacey Morgan, freelancer and operations director (endorsed Marquita Bradshaw)

General election

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[85] Safe R July 23, 2020
Inside Elections[86] Safe R July 10, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[87] Safe R August 5, 2020
Daily Kos[88] Safe R July 22, 2020
Politico[89] Likely R July 6, 2020
RCP[90] Likely R August 6, 2020
Niskanen[91] Safe R July 26, 2020
270towin[92] Safe R August 6, 2020

Endorsements
Bill Hagerty (R)
Presidents
Federal Officials
Governors
State Officials
Local Officials
Law Enforcement
  • Putnam County Sheriff Eddie Farris[112]
Individuals
Organizations
Marquita Bradshaw (D)
Organizations
  • Mid-South Memphis Democratic Socialists of America

Polling
Hypothetical polling
with Bill Hagerty and James Mackler
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Bill
Hagerty (R)		 James
Mackler (D)		 Undecided
Mason-Dixon January 28–30, 2020 625 (RV) ± 4% 55% 33% 12%
with Manny Sethi and James Mackler
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Manny
Sethi (R)		 James
Mackler (D)		 Undecided
Mason-Dixon January 28–30, 2020 625 (RV) ± 4% 46% 35% 19%
with Generic Republican and Generic Democrat
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Generic
Republican		 Generic
Democrat		 Undecided
East Tennessee State University April 22 – May 1, 2020 536 (LV) – 43% 26% 31%[lower-alpha 4]

Results
2020 United States Senate election in Tennessee
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Republican Bill Hagerty
Democratic Marquita Bradshaw
Independent Romi Faparusi, Sr.
Independent Jeffrey Grunau
Independent Ronnie Henley
Independent Dean Hill
Independent Stephen Hooper
Independent Aaron James
Independent Elizabeth Macleod
Independent Eric William Stansberry
Total votes 100.00%

Notes
  1. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. "One of the other candidates" with 2%
  3. Not yet released
  4. "Does not matter" with 26%; unsure with 5%
Partisan clients
  1. Poll conducted for the Sethi campaign.
  2. Poll conducted for the Hagerty campaign.
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References
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