2020 United States presidential election in Nevada

The 2020 United States presidential election in Nevada is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate.[1] Nevada voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Nevada has 6 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]

Main article: 2020 United States presidential election
2020 United States presidential election in Nevada
November 3, 2020
Turnout%
 
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida Delaware
Running mate Mike Pence Kamala Harris
Incumbent President

Donald Trump
Republican
Elections in Nevada
None of These Candidates

Caucuses

Canceled Republican caucuses
Further information: 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries § Cancellation of state caucuses or primaries

On September 7, 2019, the Nevada Republican Party became one of several state GOP parties to officially cancel their respective primaries and caucuses.[3] Donald Trump's re-election campaign and GOP officials have cited the fact that Republicans canceled several state primaries when George H. W. Bush and George W. Bush sought a second term in 1992 and 2004, respectively; and Democrats scrapped some of their primaries when Bill Clinton and Barack Obama were seeking reelection in 1996 and 2012, respectively.[4][5] In August 2019, the Associated Press quoted the state party spokesman, Keith Schipper, who stated it "isn't about any kind of conspiracy theory about protecting the president ... He's going to be the nominee ... This is about protecting resources to make sure that the president wins in Nevada and that Republicans up and down the ballot win in 2020."[6]

In lieu of conducting their caucuses, the state party's governing central committee instead formally held an Alternative Presidential Preference Poll on February 22, 2020,[7] voting by acclamation to officially bind all 25 of its national pledged delegates to Trump.[8][9]

Democratic caucuses

The Nevada Democratic caucuses were held primarily on February 22, 2020, with early voting conducted from February 14 to 18.

Final alignment popular vote share by county
County convention delegates won by county
Final alignment popular vote share by congressional district

Bernie Sanders won the Nevada caucuses, with Joe Biden coming in second and Pete Buttigieg in third.[10]

2020 Nevada Democratic presidential caucuses[11][12][10][13]
Candidate First
alignment		 Final
alignment[lower-alpha 1]		 County
convention
delegates[lower-alpha 2]		 Pledged
national
convention
delegates[lower-alpha 3][15]
Votes% Votes% Number%
Bernie Sanders 35,652 34.0 41,075 40.5 6,788 46.8 24
Joe Biden 18,424 17.6 19,179 18.9 2,927 20.2 9
Pete Buttigieg 16,102 15.4 17,598 17.3 2,073 14.3 3
Elizabeth Warren 13,438 12.8 11,703 11.5 1,406 9.7 0
Tom Steyer 9,503 9.1 4,120 4.1 682 4.7 0
Amy Klobuchar 10,100 9.6 7,376 7.3 603 4.2 0
Tulsi Gabbard 353 0.3 32 0.0 4 0.0 0
Andrew Yang (withdrawn) 612 0.6 49 0.0 1 0.0 0
Michael Bennet (withdrawn) 140 0.1 36 0.0 0 0.0 0
Deval Patrick (withdrawn) 86 0.1 8 0.0 0 0.0 0
John Delaney (withdrawn) 1 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0
Uncommitted 472 0.4 367 0.4 7 0.0 0
Total 104,883 100% 101,543 100% 14,491 100% 36

Delay

Similarly to the Iowa caucus, there were some controversies surrounding the outcome of the caucus. One day after voting, with forty percent of the precincts not reported, Pete Buttigieg questioned the results citing more than "200 reports of problems merging the early votes".[16][17] Full set of results were published two days after the caucus.[18]

Reports of "confusion, calculation glitches and delays in reporting" emerged once again, bringing into question the future of caucuses,[19] with former Nevada Senator Harry Reid calling for Nevada to switch to a primary system.[20]

General election

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[21] Likely D July 23, 2020
Inside Elections[22] Likely D July 17, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[23] Lean D July 14, 2020
Politico[24] Lean D July 6, 2020
RCP[25] Tossup August 3, 2020
Niskanen[26] Likely D March 24, 2020
CNN[27] Lean D August 3, 2020
The Economist[28] Likely D August 7, 2020
CBS News[29] Lean D August 9, 2020
270towin[30] Lean D August 2, 2020
ABC News[31] Lean D July 31, 2020
NPR[32] Lean D August 3, 2020
NBC News[33] Lean D August 6, 2020
538[34] Lean D August 14, 2020

Polling
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 4]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Joe
Biden (D)		 Other Undecided
ALG Research/The Nevada Independent (D)[upper-alpha 1] Apr 27–30, 2020 763 (LV) ± 3.6% 45% 49% – –
AtlasIntel Feb 19–21, 2020 1,100 (RV) ± 3.0% 41% 44% 15% –
Fox News Jan 5–8, 2020 1,505 (RV) ± 2.5% 39% 47% 9%[lower-alpha 5] 4%
Fox News Nov 10–13, 2019 1,506 (RV) ± 2.5% 40% 47% 9%[lower-alpha 6] 4%
Emerson College Oct 31 – Nov 2, 2019 1,089 ± 2.9% 51% 49% – –
Gravis Marketing Aug 14–16, 2019 926 ± 3.2% 43% 49% – 8%
Emerson College Mar 28–30, 2019 719 ± 3.6% 48% 52% – –
Former candidates
Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 4]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Bernie
Sanders (D)		 Other Undecided
AtlasIntel Feb 19–21, 2020 1,100 (RV) ± 3.0% 41% 52% 7% –
Fox News Jan 5–8, 2020 1,505 (RV) ± 2.5% 41% 46% 8%[lower-alpha 7] 4%
Fox News November 10–13, 2019 1,506 (RV) ± 2.5% 40% 47% 9%[lower-alpha 8] 4%
Emerson College Oct 31–Nov 2, 2019 1,089 ± 2.9% 50% 50% – –
Gravis Marketing Aug 14–16, 2019 926 ± 3.2% 44% 47% – 8%
Emerson College Mar 28–30, 2019 719 ± 3.6% 51% 49% – –
Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 4]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Elizabeth
Warren (D)		 Other Undecided
AtlasIntel Feb 19-21, 2020 1,100 (RV) ± 3.0% 41% 48% 12% -
Fox News Jan 5-8, 2020 1,505 (RV) ± 2.5% 42% 43% 10%[lower-alpha 9] 5%
Fox News November 10–13, 2019 1,506 (RV) ± 2.5% 41% 44% 10%[lower-alpha 10] 5%
Emerson College Oct 31 – Nov 2, 2019 1,089 ± 2.9% 51% 49% – –
Gravis Marketing Aug 14–16, 2019 926 ± 3.2% 47% 46% – 7%
Emerson College Mar 28–30, 2019 719 ± 3.6% 54% 46% – –
Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 4]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Pete
Buttigieg (D)		 Other Undecided
AtlasIntel Feb 19-21, 2020 1,100 (RV) ± 3.0% 38% 49% 14% -
Fox News Jan 5-8, 2020 1,505 (RV) ± 2.5% 40% 41% 12%[lower-alpha 11] 7%
Fox News November 10–13, 2019 1,506 (RV) ± 2.5% 41% 41% 9%[lower-alpha 12] 6%
Gravis Marketing Aug 14–16, 2019 926 ± 3.2% 46% 42% – 12%
Emerson College Mar 28–30, 2019 719 ± 3.6% 52% 48% – –
Donald Trump vs. Cory Booker
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 4]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Cory
Booker (D)		 Undecided
Gravis Marketing Aug 14–16, 2019 926 ± 3.2% 46% 44% 10%
Donald Trump vs. Marianne Williamson
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 4]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Marianne
Williamson (D)		 Undecided
Gravis Marketing Aug 14–16, 2019 926 ± 3.2% 48% 40% 12%
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 4]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Kamala
Harris (D)		 Undecided
Gravis Marketing Aug 14–16, 2019 926 ± 3.2% 45% 45% 11%
Emerson College Mar 28–30, 2019 719 ± 3.6% 51% 49% –
Hypothetical polling
Donald Trump vs Generic Democrat vs Howard Schultz
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 4]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Generic
Democrat		 Howard
Schultz (I)		 Undecided
DFM Research Jan 28–31, 2019 500 ± 4.4% 38% 45% 6% 11%
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See also

Notes
  1. Vote count after votes for candidates who did not get at least 15% of the vote in that precinct are reallocated to the voter's second choice.
  2. County convention delegates (CCDs) are used to calculate how many pledged national convention delegates each candidate win statewide and in the state's four congressional districts.
  3. The number of pledged national convention delegates is determined by the number of CCDs won, however, a candidate must get at least 15% of the total vote to get any delegates. However, if a candidate wins a congressional district, they get a delegate even if they didn’t reach 15% of the vote. Each precinct has a certain number of CCDs and allocates them based on how many caucus goers there are for each candidate at that precinct.[14]
  4. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  5. Other with 5%; wouldn't vote with 4%
  6. Other with 5%; wouldn't vote with 4%
  7. Other with 5%; wouldn't vote with 3%
  8. Other with 6%; wouldn't vote with 3%
  9. Other with 6%; wouldn't vote with 4%
  10. Other with 6%; wouldn't vote with 4%
  11. Other with 8%; wouldn't vote with 4%
  12. Other with 5%; wouldn't vote with 4%
Partisan clients
  1. Sponsored by an anonymous partisan group

References
  1. Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  2. "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. Kinnard, Meg (September 7, 2019). "Nevada, SC, Kansas GOP drop presidential nomination votes". AP NEWS.
  4. Karni, Annie (September 6, 2019). "GOP plans to drop presidential primaries in 4 states to impede Trump challengers". Boston Globe. MSN. Retrieved September 7, 2019.
  5. Steakin, Will; Karson, Kendall (September 6, 2019). "GOP considers canceling at least 3 GOP primaries and caucuses, Trump challengers outraged". ABC News. Retrieved September 7, 2019.
  6. Price, Michelle (August 2, 2019). "Nevada GOP could let Trump bypass its nominating caucuses". Associated Press.
  7. Michelle Price (December 13, 2019). "Nevada GOP to vote Feb. 22 on endorsing Trump for president". Associated Press. Retrieved December 23, 2019.
  8. "Nevada GOP awards all 25 delegates to Trump". Associated Press. PBS Newshour. February 22, 2020.
  9. "The Nevada GOP Binds its Delegates to President Trump". Nevada Republican Party. February 22, 2020.
  10. "Nevada Caucus Results 2020". Politico. February 23, 2020. Retrieved February 23, 2020.
  11. https://nevadacaucusresults.com/
  12. "Nevada". CNN. February 22, 2020. Retrieved February 23, 2020.
  13. "Nevada Caucus 2020: Live Results Updates". The New York Times. February 22, 2020. Retrieved February 22, 2020.
  14. "Nevada Democratic Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. March 31, 2019. Retrieved April 12, 2019.
  15. "Nevada Caucus Results 2020 | Live Election Map | Voting by County & District". Politico.com. Retrieved 2020-03-02.
  16. Price, Michelle L. (February 23, 2020). "Buttigieg questions 3rd place finish in Nevada, cites errors". The Associated Press. Retrieved February 24, 2020.
  17. Tin, Alex; Killion, Nikole; Linton, Caroline; Quinn, Melissa (February 23, 2020). "Buttigieg campaign alleges "irregularities" in Nevada results". CBS News. Retrieved February 24, 2020.
  18. Epstein, Reid J. (February 23, 2020). "Why Are Nevada Caucus Results Coming in So Slowly?". The New York Times. Retrieved February 24, 2020.
  19. Culliford, Elizabeth; Reid, Tim (February 23, 2020). "Slow results, confusion and complaints at Nevada caucus sites". Reuters. Retrieved February 24, 2020.
  20. Epstein, Reid J. (February 24, 2020). "Harry Reid Says Nevada Should Have a Primary: 'All Caucuses Should Be a Thing of the Past'". The New York Times. Retrieved February 24, 2020.
  21. "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
  22. "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
  23. "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
  24. "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  25. "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  26. 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
  27. David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved 2020-06-16.
  28. "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved 7 July 2020.
  29. "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  30. "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
  31. "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  32. "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved 2020-08-03.
  33. "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved 2020-08-06.
  34. "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved 14 August 2020.
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