2020 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania

The 2020 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate.[1] Pennsylvania voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Pennsylvania has 20 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]

Main article: 2020 United States presidential election

2020 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania

November 3, 2020
Turnout	%
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden Party Republican Democratic Home state Florida Delaware Running mate Mike Pence Kamala Harris
Incumbent President Donald Trump Republican

Incumbent President Donald Trump won the state in 2016, but as a result of worse than expected results for Republicans during the 2018 midterms, Pennsylvania is expected to be close during the 2020 election.[3]

By the time that the primary elections were held in the state on June 2, 2020, incumbent President Donald Trump was already the Republican Party's presumptive nominee, being the only viable declared major candidate left. On the Democratic Party's side, Vice President Joe Biden became the presumptive nominee after Senator Bernie Sanders, his last competitor, withdrew on April 8, 2020.

Primary elections

The primary elections were originally scheduled for April 28, 2020, also originally joining several northeastern states in holding primaries on the same date, including Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, New York, and Rhode Island.[4] On March 26, Pennsylvania joined several other states in moving its primary to June 2 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.[5]

Republican primary

Even though the Republican National Committee mailed Pennsylvania voters encouraging mail-in voting, describing it as a "convenient and secure” option, most Republicans expressed opposition to the prospect. Earlier, the Republican-controlled House blocked a proposal to mail every Pennsylvanian a mail-in ballot application. This was in-response to President Trump's skepticism of the practice, expressing concern mail-in voting may result in voter fraud that would potentially benefit the Democratic Party.[6]

2020 Pennsylvania Republican primary[7]

Candidate	Votes	%	Delegates[8]
Donald Trump	1,043,311	93.3%	34
Bill Weld	68,715	5.1%	0
Rocky De La Fuente (withdrawn)	20,187	1.6%	0
Total	1,132,213	100%	34

Trump was declared the winner in the Republican primary, and received all of the state's 34 pledged delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention (the state also has 54 unpledged delegates).[8]

Democratic primary

This section is an excerpt from 2020 Pennsylvania Democratic presidential primary[edit]

2020 Pennsylvania Democratic presidential primary[9]

Candidate	Votes	%	Delegates[10]
Joe Biden	1,264,624	79.26%	151
Bernie Sanders (suspended)	287,834	18.04%	35
Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn)	43,050	2.70%	0
Total	1,595,508	100%	186

Green Caucus

The Green Caucus will be held during the month of April 2020.

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[11]	Lean D (flip)	July 23, 2020
Inside Elections[12]	Lean D (flip)	July 17, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[13]	Lean D (flip)	July 14, 2020
Politico[14]	Lean D (flip)	July 6, 2020
RCP[15]	Tossup	August 3, 2020
Niskanen[16]	Likely D (flip)	July 26, 2020
CNN[17]	Lean D (flip)	August 3, 2020
The Economist[18]	Lean D (flip)	August 11, 2020
CBS News[19]	Lean D (flip)	August 9, 2020
270towin[20]	Lean D (flip)	August 2, 2020
ABC News[21]	Lean D (flip)	July 31, 2020
NPR[22]	Lean D (flip)	August 3, 2020
NBC News[23]	Lean D (flip)	August 6, 2020
538[24]	Lean D (flip)	August 14, 2020

Polling

Aggregate polls

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Joe Biden	Donald Trump	Other/Undecided[lower-alpha 1]	Margin
270 to Win	July 19 – August 7, 2020	August 10, 2020	49.0%	42.4%	8.6%	Biden +6.6
Real Clear Politics	July 20 – August 7, 2020	August 10, 2020	49.0%	43.3%	7.7%	Biden +5.7
FiveThirtyEight	until August 7, 2020	August 10, 2020	49.5%	43.2%	7.3%	Biden +6.3
Average			49.2%	43.0%	7.8%	Biden +6.2

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Donald Trump (R)	Joe Biden (D)	Other	Undecided
Emerson College	Aug 8–10, 2020	843 (LV)	± 3.8%	43%	52%	–	5%
CNBC/Change Research	Aug 7–9, 2020	456 (RV)	–	44%	48%
YouGov	Aug 4–7, 2020	1,225 (RV)	± 3.7%	43%	49%	3%	5%
University of Wisconsin-Madison/YouGov	Jul 27–Aug 6, 2020	742 (RV)	± 4.9%	41%	50%	–	–
Change Research/CNBC	Jul 24–26, 2020	382 (LV)	–	46%	48%	–	–
Franklin & Marshall College	Jul 20–26, 2020	667 (RV)	± 5.5%	41%	50%	2%	6%
Morning Consult	Jul 17–26, 2020	2,092 (LV)	± 2.1%	42%	50%	–	–
Gravis Marketing	Jul 22–24, 2020	1,006 (RV)	± 3.1%	45%	48%	–	8%
Zogby Analytics	July 21–23, 2020	809 (RV)	± 3.4%	43%	44%	6%[lower-alpha 3]	–
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	Jul 19–21, 2020	1,016 (RV)	–	41%	48%	3%[lower-alpha 4]	8%
Fox News	Jul 18–20, 2020	793 (RV)	± 3.5%	39%	50%	4%	6%
Rasmussen Reports	Jul 15–16, 2020	750 (LV)	–	46%	51%	2%	1%
Spry Strategies	Jul 11–16, 2020	700 (LV)	± 3.7%	48%	47%	–	5%
Monmouth University	Jul 9–13, 2020	401 (RV)	± 4.9%	40%	53%	3%	4%
		401 (LV)		42%[lower-alpha 5]	52%	3%	3%
				44%[lower-alpha 6]	51%	2%	3%
Change Research/CNBC	Jul 10–12, 2020	743 (LV)	–	42%	50%	–	–
Trafalgar	Jun 29 – Jul 2, 2020	1,062 (LV)	± 2.92%	43%	48%	6%[lower-alpha 7]	3%
Change Research/CNBC	Jun 26–28, 2020	760 (LV)[lower-alpha 8]	–	44%	50%	–	–
Susquehanna Polling/Fox 43	Jun 15–23, 2020	715 (LV)	–	41%	46%	–	–
NYT Upshot/Siena College	Jun 8–16, 2020	651 (RV)	± 4.2%	40%	50%	3%[lower-alpha 9]	6%
Change Research/CNBC	Jun 12–14, 2020	491 (LV)[lower-alpha 10]	–	46%	49%	3%[lower-alpha 11]	–
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R)	Jun 8–11, 2020	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	42%	54%	1%[lower-alpha 12]	4%
Change Research/CNBC	May 29–31, 2020	579 (LV)[lower-alpha 13]	–	50%	46%	2%	2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	May 10–14, 2020	963 (LV)	± 3.2%	39%	48%	2%[lower-alpha 14]	11%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R)	May 9–13, 2020	600 (LV)	± 3.0%	51%	46%	–	4%
Harper Polling (R)	Apr 21–26, 2020	644 (LV)	± 3.9%	43%	49%	–	8%
Public Policy Polling[upper-alpha 1]	Apr 20–21, 2020	1,251 (RV)	–	44%	51%	–	5%
Fox News	Apr 18–21, 2020	803 (RV)	± 3.5 %	42%	50%	–	–
Ipsos	Apr 15–20, 2020	578 (RV)	± 5.0%	40%	46%	–	–
Suquehanna Research/Fox 43	Apr 14–20, 2020	693 (LV)	–	42%	48%	–	–
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R)	Apr 16–18, 2020	600 (RV)	± 3.0%	47%	47%	–	–
Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes	Mar 17–25, 2020	973 (RV)	± 3.9%	47%	45%	–	9%
Change Research	Mar 21–23, 2020	510 (LV)	–	50%	47%	–	4%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R)	Mar 19–21, 2020	600 (RV)	–	47%	45%	–	–
YouGov/Yahoo News	Mar 6–8, 2020	725 (RV)	–	40%	46%	5%[lower-alpha 15]	8%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus	Mar 5–7, 2020	533 (RV)	± 5.3 %	45%	44%	–	–
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call	Feb 12–20, 2020	424 (RV)	± 5.5 %	47%	47%	2%	4%
YouGov	Feb 11–20, 2020	1,171 (RV)	± 4.0 %	45%	46%	–	–
Quinnipiac University	Feb 12–18, 2020	849 (RV)	± 3.4 %	42%	50%	6%[lower-alpha 16]	3%
Expedition Strategies/Progressive Policies Institute	Feb 6–18, 2020	500 (RV)	–	42%	47%	–	11%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus	Dec 3–5, 2019	598 (LV)	± 4.3%	45%	41%	8%[lower-alpha 17]	6%[lower-alpha 18]
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call	Nov 4–9, 2019	410 (RV)	± 6.0%	43%	52%	4%	2%
NYT Upshot/Siena College	Oct 13–25, 2019	661 (LV)	± 4.4%	45%	46%	–	–
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus	Sep 7–9, 2019	527	± 4.2%	41%	45%	14%	–
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus	Jun 11–13, 2019	565	± 4.2%	42%	43%	15%	–
Quinnipiac University	May 9–14, 2019	978	± 4.2%	42%	53%	1%	3%
WPA Intelligence	Apr 27–30, 2019	200	± 6.9%	45%	46%	–	8%
Emerson College	Mar 26–28, 2019	808	± 3.4%	45%	55%	–	–
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus	Mar 19–21, 2019	632	± 4.0%	43%	50%	4%	–

Four-way race

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Donald Trump (R)	Joe Biden (D)	Jo Jorgensen (L)	Howie Hawkins (G)	Other	Undecided
Redfield & Whilton Strategies	Jun 14–16, 2020	1,125 (LV)	± 2.92%	39%	49%	1%	1%	1%	9%

Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Michael Bloomberg (D) Other Undecided Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Feb 12–20, 2020 424 (RV) ± 5.5 % 48% 45% 2% 5% Quinnipiac University Feb 12–18, 2020 849 (RV) ±3.4% 42% 48% 6%[lower-alpha 19] 3% Expedition Strategies/Progressive Policies Institute Feb 6–18, 2020 500 (RV) – 39% 48% – 13% Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Dec 3–5, 2019 598 (LV) ± 4.3% 45% 41% 9%[lower-alpha 20] 5% Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Pete Buttigieg (D) Other Undecided Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Feb 12–20, 2020 424 (RV) ± 5.5 % 46% 45% 3% 5% Expedition Strategies/Progressive Policies Institute Feb 6–18, 2020 500 (RV) – 40% 46% – 14% YouGov Feb 11–20, 2020 1,171 (RV) ±4.0% 44% 44% – – Quinnipiac University Feb 12–18, 2020 849 (RV) ±3.4% 43% 47% 8%[lower-alpha 21] 2% Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Dec 3–5, 2019 598 (LV) ± 4.3% 46% 40% 7%[lower-alpha 22] 7%[lower-alpha 23] Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Jun 11–13, 2019 565 ± 4.2% 45% 32% 23% – Quinnipiac University May 9–14, 2019 978 ± 4.2% 44% 45% 4% 6% Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Kamala Harris (D) Other Undecided Quinnipiac University May 9–14, 2019 978 ± 4.2% 45% 45% 3% 5% Emerson College Mar 26–28, 2019 808 ± 3.4% 49% 51% – – Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Amy Klobuchar (D) Other Undecided Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Feb 12–20, 2020 424 (RV) ± 5.5 % 45% 44% 3% 8% YouGov Feb 11–20, 2020 1,171 (RV) ±4.0% 43% 43% – – Quinnipiac University Feb 12–18, 2020 849 (RV) ±3.4% 42% 49% 6%[lower-alpha 24] 4% Donald Trump vs. Beto O'Rourke Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Beto O'Rourke (D) Other Undecided Quinnipiac University May 9–14, 2019 978 ± 4.2% 46% 44% 4% 5% Emerson College Mar 26–28, 2019 808 ± 3.4% 49% 51% – – Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Mar 19–21, 2019 632 ± 4.0% 47% 40% 8% – Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Bernie Sanders (D) Other Undecided Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes Mar 17–25, 2020 973 (RV) ± 3.9% 48% 42% – 10% Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) Mar 19–21, 2020 600 (RV) – 49% 43% – – YouGov/Yahoo News Mar 6–8, 2020 725 (RV) – 41% 43% 6%[lower-alpha 25] 10% Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Mar 5–7, 2020 533 (RV) ± 5.3 % 46% 42% – – Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Feb 12–20, 2020 424 (RV) ± 5.5 % 46% 49% 3% 3% YouGov Feb 11–20, 2020 1,171 (RV) ±4.0% 45% 47% – – Quinnipiac University Feb 12–18, 2020 849 (RV) ±3.4% 44% 48% 5%[lower-alpha 26] 1% Expedition Strategies/Progressive Policies Institute Feb 6–18, 2020 500 (RV) – 43% 45% – 12% Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Dec 3–5, 2019 598 (LV) ± 4.3% 48% 37% 8%[lower-alpha 27] 6%[lower-alpha 28] Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Nov 4–9, 2019 410 (RV) ± 6.0% 45% 50% 4% 1% NYT Upshot/Siena College Oct 13–25, 2019 661 ± 4.4% 45% 44% – – Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Sep 7–9, 2019 527 ± 4.2% 42% 44% 14% – Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Jun 11–13, 2019 565 ± 4.2% 44% 41% 15% – Quinnipiac University May 9–14, 2019 978 ± 4.2% 43% 50% 2% 3% Tulchin Research (D)[upper-alpha 2] Apr 14–18, 2019 400 ± 4.9% 43% 51% – – Emerson College Mar 26–28, 2019 808 ± 3.4% 45% 55% – – Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Mar 19–21, 2019 632 ± 4.0% 44% 44% 8% – Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Elizabeth Warren (D) Other Undecided Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Feb 12–20, 2020 424 (RV) ± 5.5 % 47% 47% 4% 3% YouGov Feb 11–20, 2020 1,171 (RV) ±4.0% 45% 45% – – Quinnipiac University Feb 12–18, 2020 849 (RV) ±3.4% 44% 47% 8%[lower-alpha 29] 2% Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Dec 3–5, 2019 598 (LV) ± 4.3% 47% 40% 8%[lower-alpha 30] 5%[lower-alpha 31] Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Nov 4–9, 2019 410 (RV) ± 6.0% 45% 50% 4% 1% NYT Upshot/Siena College Oct 13–25, 2019 661 ± 4.4% 46% 44% – – Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Sep 7–9, 2019 527 ± 4.2% 41% 43% 16% – Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Jun 11–13, 2019 565 ± 4.2% 45% 34% 21% – Quinnipiac University May 9–14, 2019 978 ± 4.2% 44% 47% 3% 4% Emerson College Mar 26–28, 2019 808 ± 3.4% 48% 52% – – Zogby Analytics Aug 17–23, 2017 813 ± 3.4% 38% 46% – 16%

Hypothetical polling

with Donald Trump and Generic Democrat Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Generic Democrat (D) Undecided Baldwin Wallace University/Oakland University/Ohio Northern University Mar 17–25, 2020 997 (RV) ± 3.7% 48.6%[lower-alpha 32] 49.2% 2.1%[lower-alpha 33] Expedition Strategies/Progressive Policies Institute Feb 6–18, 2020 500 (RV) – 38% 51% 11% Baldwin Wallace University/Oakland University/Ohio Northern University Jan 8–20, 2020 1,037 (RV) ± 3.2% 39.7%[lower-alpha 34] 49.5% 10.7% KFF/Cook Political Report Sep 23 – Oct 15, 2019 752 (RV) ± 4% 29% 40% 22% with Donald Trump and Generic Opponent Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Generic Opponent Undecided F&M/PoliticsPA Mar 18–24, 2019 540 (RV) ± 5.5% 36% 61%[lower-alpha 35] 4%

See also

• 2020 United States presidential election
• 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2020 United States elections

Notes

Partisan clients

1. Poll sponsored by Protect Our Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organisation
2. Poll sponsored by the Sanders campaign

Additional candidates

1. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
2. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
3. "Jo Jorgensen" with 4%; "Howie Hawkins" 2%
4. "Jo Jorgensen" with 1%; "Kayne West" 1%; "Another Third Party/Write-In" 1%
5. With a likely voter turnout model featuring higher turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
6. With a likely voter turnout model featuring lower turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
7. "Other party candidate" with 6%
8. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
9. "Another candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 1%
10. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
11. "Libertarian Party candidate/Green Party candidate" with 3%
12. "Refused" with 1%
13. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
14. "Third party/write-in" with 2%
15. "Other" with 2%; would not vote with 3%
16. "Someone else" with 1%; would not vote with 5%
17. A third party candidate with 6%; will not vote with 2%
18. Includes "refused"
19. "Someone else" with 2%; would not vote with 4%
20. A third party candidate with 6%; will not vote with 3%
21. "Someone else" with 2%; would not vote with 6%
22. A third party candidate with 4%; will not vote with 3%
23. Includes "refused"
24. "Someone else" with 1%; would not vote with 5%
25. "Other" with 4%; would not vote with 2%
26. "Someone else" with 1%; would not vote with 4%
27. A third party candidate with 5%; will not vote with 3%
28. Includes "refused"
29. "Someone else" with 2%; would not vote with 6%
30. A third party candidate with 5%; will not vote with 3%
31. Includes "refused"
32. Figures for each candidate in this poll include undecided voters who were reported to lean towards that candidate at the time of polling.
33. "It depends on who the Democrats nominate" with 1.4%; "unsure" with 0.7%
34. Figures for each candidate in this poll include undecided voters who were reported to lean towards that candidate at the time of polling.
35. 61% "time for a change" as opposed to "Trump has done a good enough job to deserve re-election"

References

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3. Taylor, Jessica (November 9, 2018). "What 2018 Elections Could Tell Us About The 2020 Presidential Map". National Public Radio. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
4. Thompson, Steve; Nirappil, Fenit (February 6, 2019). "D.C. is slated to vote last in 2020 Democratic primaries. That might change". The Washington Post. Retrieved June 23, 2019.
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6. "Do Republicans oppose vote by mail? In Pennsylvania, it's not that simple". The Philadelphia Inquirer. April 13, 2020.
7. "Pennsylvania Presidential Republican Primary Election Results". The New York Times. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
8. "Pennsylvania Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
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14. "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
15. "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
16. 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, July 26, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
17. David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved 2020-06-16.
18. "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved 7 July 2020.
19. "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
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21. "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
22. "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved 2020-08-03.
23. "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved 2020-08-06.
24. "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved 14 August 2020.