2020 United States Senate election in Virginia

The 2020 United States Senate election in Virginia will be held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Virginia, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Senator Mark Warner first won election in 2008 getting 65% of the vote over former governor Jim Gilmore.[1] In 2014, during the Tea Party movement, and declining voter turnout, Senator Warner won re-election with 49.1% of the vote defeating former chairman of the Republican National Committee Ed Gillespie by 0.8%.[2] Warner is running for a third term.

2020 United States Senate election in Virginia
November 3, 2020
 
Nominee Mark Warner Daniel Gade
Party Democratic Republican
Incumbent U.S. senator

Mark Warner
Democratic
Elections in Virginia

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Republican primary

Seven Republicans declared for the race, but only three made the threshold of 3,500 signatures.[6][7] The original signature threshold was 10,000 signatures, but was lowered to 3,500 following a suit by Omari Faulkner.[8] The primary was June 23.

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary
  • Alissa Baldwin, teacher[10]
  • Thomas Speciale, U.S. Army veteran and intelligence officer[11]

Failed to qualify
  • Blaine Dunn, Frederick County supervisor[12]
  • Omari Faulkner, business executive, former U.S. State Department official and U.S. Navy reservist[13][14]
  • Roger Franklin[15]
  • Victor Williams, attorney and activist[16]

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements
Daniel Gade
National Party Officials
U.S. Representatives
State Senators
State Delegates
Individuals
Organizations
  • Combat Veterans for Congress[28]

Results
Results by county:
Republican primary results[29]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Daniel Gade 205,554 67.44%
Republican Alissa Baldwin 55,107 18.08%
Republican Thomas Speciale 44,118 14.48%
Total votes 304,779 100.00%

Independents

Declared

General election

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[32] Safe D July 23, 2020
Inside Elections[33] Safe D July 10, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[34] Safe D August 5, 2020
Daily Kos[35] Safe D July 22, 2020
Politico[36] Likely D July 6, 2020
RCP[37] Likely D August 6, 2020
Niskanen[38] Safe D July 26, 2020
270towin[39] Safe D August 6, 2020

Polling
Hypothetical polling
with Mark Warner and Generic Republican
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Mark
Warner (D)		 Generic
Republican		 Other Undecided
Roanoke College May 3–16, 2020 563 (LV) ± 4.1% 48% 31% – –
with Generic Democrat and Generic Republican
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Generic
Democrat		 Generic
Republican		 Other Undecided
Ipsos/University of Virginia Feb 15–19, 2019 636 ± 4.0% 43% 26% 2% 23%

Endorsements
Mark Warner (D)
Organizations
Daniel Gade (R)
National party officials
U.S. Representatives
State Senators
State Delegates
Individuals
Organizations
  • Combat Veterans for Congress[28]

Results
United States Senate election in Virginia, 2020
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Democratic Mark Warner (incumbent)
Republican Daniel Gade
Independent Mary Knapp
Independent Aldous Mina
Total votes 100.00%

Notes
  1. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
gollark: Too hard to sandbox.
gollark: No.
gollark: Yes.
gollark: Rust has that.
gollark: SIGSEGV

References
  1. "Virginia Elections Database » 2008 U.S. Senate General Election". Virginia Elections Database.
  2. "Virginia Elections Database » 2014 U.S. Senate General Election". Virginia Elections Database.
  3. Seth McLaughlin (July 8, 2019). "Sen. Mark Warner posts $1.8M second-quarter fundraising haul". Washington Times. Retrieved July 8, 2019.
  4. Virginia Department of Elections. "Declaration of Candidacy" (PDF). Commonwealth of Virginia. Retrieved February 1, 2020.
  5. Virginia Department of Elections (November 2019). "June and November, 2020 United States Senate Candidate Bulletin" (PDF). Commonwealth of Virginia. p. 4. Retrieved February 1, 2020.
  6. Moomaw, Graham (April 1, 2020). "Three Republicans qualify for GOP primary to challenge U.S. Sen Mark Warner". Virginia Mercury. Retrieved April 1, 2020.
  7. https://www.elections.virginia.gov/media/castyourballot/candidatelist/June-2020-Primary-Candidates-List-(1).pdf
  8. Moomaw, Graham (March 24, 2020). "GOP candidate sues Virginia election officials, says coronavirus thwarted efforts to get ballot signatures". Virginia Mercury. Retrieved April 1, 2020.
  9. Solano, Sophia (December 12, 2019). "SPA professor and veteran running for Virginia U.S. Senate seat". The Eagle. Retrieved January 5, 2020.
  10. "Baldwin announces run for U.S. senate". The Kenbridge Victoria Dispatch. July 22, 2019.
  11. Berti, Daniel (September 12, 2019). "Woodbridge Army officer launches bid for U.S. Senate". Prince William Times. Retrieved September 16, 2019.
  12. Janney, Josh (January 30, 2020). "Dunn seeking GOP nomination for U.S. Senate seat". The Winchester Star.
  13. Wilson, Patrick (November 13, 2019). "Two Republicans start campaigns for U.S. Senate in Virginia". Richmond Times Dispatch. Retrieved November 14, 2019.
  14. "Former State Dept Official, Georgetown Basketball Player, Launches GOP U.S. Senate Run". The Daily Wire. Retrieved 2020-02-10.
  15. "FEC Form 2 for Report FEC-1346979". docquery.fec.gov.
  16. "On July 4th, Virginia Sen. Mark Warner Harshly Criticized by 2020 Challener, Pro-Tr**p Law Prof Victor Williams". DC Presswire. July 9, 2019. Retrieved July 11, 2019.
  17. "Gary Adkins Announces Termination of His Bid for U.S. Senate 2020". Standard Newswire. December 23, 2019. Retrieved January 5, 2020.
  18. "17 changes to the candidate list. O'Rourke (Democratic) withdraws from Presidential contest". The Green Papers. November 4, 2019. Retrieved May 15, 2020.
  19. "70 changes to the candidate list. Member of Congress Mark Randal Meadows (North Carolina, Republican) resigns". The Green Papers. March 31, 2020. Retrieved May 15, 2020.
  20. Wilson, Reid (December 9, 2019). "Ex-Rep. Scott Taylor to seek old Virginia seat". The Hill. Retrieved December 9, 2019.
  21. Leonor, Mel (December 2, 2019). "Freitas launches bid to challenge Spanberger for congressional seat". Richmond Times-Dispatch. Retrieved December 2, 2019.
  22. Vozzella, Laura (December 15, 2018). "As Va. GOP seeks new course, Corey Stewart says he's finished with statewide politics". The Washington Post. Retrieved December 16, 2018.
  23. "Corey Stewart to quit politics: 'Just isn't exciting for me anymore'". Washington Examiner. January 9, 2019. Retrieved January 13, 2019.
  24. Gade, Daniel (29 January 2020). "Daniel Gade Unloads First Round of Endorsements".
  25. State Senator Jill Vogel and Former U.S. Senate Candidate Victor Williams Endorse Daniel Gade - Daniel Gade for U.S. Senate
  26. Virginia State Senator Richard Stuart (R-Va.-28) Endorses Daniel Gade - Daniel Gade for U.S. Senate
  27. State Senator Jill Vogel and Former U.S. Senate Candidate Victor Williams Endorse Daniel Gade - Daniel Gade for U.S. Senate
  28. "Combat Veterans For Congress | Electing Fiscal Conservatives". www.combatveteransforcongress.org.
  29. "Virgina 2020 June Republcian Primary". Virginia Department of Elections. Retrieved 23 June 2020.
  30. "Virginia Senate 2020 Race". Open Secrets. Retrieved May 15, 2020.
  31. "FILING FEC-1389132". FEC. March 11, 2020. Retrieved May 15, 2020.
  32. "2020 Senate Race Ratings for April 19, 2019". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2019.
  33. "2020 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved July 17, 2020.
  34. "2020 Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved August 28, 2019.
  35. "Daily Kos Elections releases initial Senate race ratings for 2020". Daily Kos Elections. Retrieved February 28, 2020.
  36. "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  37. "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  38. "2020 Negative Partisanship and the 2020 Congressional Elections". Niskanen Center. April 28, 2020.
  39. "2020 Senate Map Based on Polls". 270towin.com. August 6, 2020. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
  40. "Coalition to Stop Gun Violence Endorses Gun Violence Survivors, Speaker Pelosi, Congressional Allies". Coalition to Stop Gun Violence. March 23, 2020.
  41. Muller, Tiffany (January 21, 2020). "End Citizens United Endorses 39 Candidates 10 Years After Citizens United Decision". End Citizens United.
  42. "Human Rights Campaign Endorses 40 House, 5 Senate Pro-Equality Leaders". Human Rights Campaign. May 18, 2020.
  43. Society, Humane. "2020 Endorsements". Humane Society Legislative Fund.
  44. "Meet the 2020 Candidates". Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs.
  45. Rich, Aliyah (March 5, 2020). "LCV Action Fund Endorses Mark Warner for U.S. Senate". League of Conservation Voters.
  46. "U.S. Senate - Education Votes". educationvotes.nea.org.
  47. "2020 Federal Endorsements - NOW PAC". nowpac.org.
  48. "2020 Endorsements". plannedparenthoodaction.org.
  49. "2020 Endorsements". Population Connection.
  50. "Sierra Club #ClimateVoter Guide: Endorsements". Sierra Club.
  51. State Senator Jill Vogel and Former U.S. Senate Candidate Victor Williams Endorse Daniel Gade - Daniel Gade for U.S. Senate
Official campaign websites
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