2020 United States Senate special election in Arizona
The 2020 United States Senate special election in Arizona will be held on November 3, 2020. Following the death in office of incumbent Republican U.S. Senator John McCain on August 25, 2018, Governor Doug Ducey was required by Arizona law to appoint a Republican to fill the vacant seat through the end of the term expiring in January 2023.[1][2] On September 5, 2018, Ducey appointed former U.S. Senator Jon Kyl to fill McCain's seat. However, Kyl announced he would resign the following December 31.[3]
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On December 18, 2018, Ducey announced that outgoing U.S. Representative Martha McSally would be appointed to fill the seat following Kyl's resignation, which would trigger a special election.[4] McSally was sworn in as the state's junior U.S. Senator on January 3, 2019, less than two months after she was defeated by Democrat Kyrsten Sinema for Arizona's Class I U.S. Senate seat.[5] McSally is running to complete the term, defeating skincare executive Daniel McCarthy in the Republican primary. She faces former astronaut Mark Kelly, who ran uncontested in the Democratic primary. Primary elections took place on August 4, 2020.[6]
Interim appointments
Appointees
- Jon Kyl, former U.S. Senator, former U.S. Representative for Arizona's 4th congressional district and former Senate Minority Whip, resigned December 31, 2018[4][7]
- Martha McSally, former U.S. Representative for Arizona's 2nd congressional district, 2018 Republican nominee for U.S. Senate, assumed office January 3, 2019[8]
Potential candidates not appointed
- Kirk Adams, incumbent chief of staff to incumbent Governor of Arizona Doug Ducey and former Speaker of the Arizona House of Representatives[9]
- Barbara Barrett, Secretary of the Air Force and former United States Ambassador to Finland[9]
- Jan Brewer, former Governor of Arizona and former Secretary of State of Arizona[10]
- Paul Gosar, incumbent U.S. Representative for Arizona's 4th congressional district[11]
- Eileen Klein, former Treasurer of Arizona and former Chief of Staff to former Governor of Arizona Jan Brewer[9]
- Cindy McCain, widow of former U.S. senator John McCain[9]
- Meghan McCain, daughter of former U.S. senator John McCain[12]
- Michael McGuire, incumbent Adjutant General of the Arizona National Guard[11]
- Karrin Taylor Robson, businesswoman and incumbent member of the Arizona Board of Regents[9]
- Matt Salmon, former U.S. Representative, 2002 gubernatorial nominee and former Chairperson of the Arizona Republican Party[9]
- David Schweikert, incumbent U.S. Representative for Arizona's 6th congressional district[13]
- John Shadegg, former U.S. Representative for Arizona's 3rd congressional district[9]
- Kelli Ward, former candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016 and 2018[11]
- Grant Woods, former Republican Arizona Attorney General and former congressional Chief of Staff to former U.S. senator John McCain[11]
Republican primary
Incumbent McSally faces one challenger: Daniel McCarthy, a skincare company executive. Upon his respective announcements, McCarthy's independent wealth was expected to set up a bruising and expensive primary campaign.[14]
Candidates
Nominee
- Martha McSally, incumbent U.S. senator and former U.S. Representative for Arizona's 2nd congressional district[15][16]
Eliminated in primary
Withdrawn
- Craig Brittain, Republican candidate for the 2018 United States Senate election in Arizona[19][20]
- PT Burton[21]
- Mark Cavener[20][17]
- Floyd Getchell[22][20]
- Ann Griffin, former teacher[23][17]
- Josue Larose, 2016 Republican presidential candidate and 2012 Republican candidate for Louisiana's 2nd congressional district[24]
Declined
- Kirk Adams, incumbent Chief of Staff to incumbent Governor of Arizona Doug Ducey and former Speaker of the Arizona House of Representatives[25]
- Joe Arpaio, former Sheriff of Maricopa County and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018 (running for Maricopa County Sheriff)[26][27]
- Doug Ducey, Governor of Arizona[28]
- Paul Gosar, U.S. Representative for Arizona's 4th congressional district[29]
- Jon Kyl, former U.S. senator, former U.S. Representative for Arizona's 4th congressional district and former Senate Minority Whip[7][30][31]
- Blake Masters, entrepreneur[32][33]
- Curt Schilling, former Major League Baseball player and Blaze Media commentator[34]
- Fife Symington, former Governor of Arizona[35][36]
Endorsements
Martha McSally |
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Daniel McCarthy |
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Primary results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Martha McSally (incumbent) | 536,548 | 75.6% | |
Republican | Daniel McCarthy | 172,934 | 24.4% | |
Total votes | 709,482 | 100.0% |
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Mark Kelly, retired American astronaut, engineer, retired U.S. Navy Captain and husband of former U.S. Representative Gabby Giffords[49]
Eliminated in primary
- Bo "Heir Archy" Garcia (as a write-in candidate)[17]
Withdrew
- Mohammad Arif, businessman and perennial candidate (write-in)[50] (switched to Independent)[51]
- Sheila Bilyeu, Democratic candidate for the 2020 United States Senate election in Oklahoma[52]
- Juan Angel Vasquez[53]
Declined
- Chris Deschene, former state representative[54]
- Ruben Gallego, incumbent U.S. Representative for Arizona's 7th congressional district (running for re-election) (endorsed Mark Kelly)[55]
- Katie Hobbs, Secretary of State of Arizona[56]
- Grant Woods, former Republican Arizona Attorney General and former congressional Chief of Staff to former U.S. senator John McCain[57]
Endorsements
Mark Kelly |
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Primary results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
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Democratic | Mark Kelly | 623,451 | 100.0% | |
Total votes | 623,451 | 100.0% |
Libertarian primary
Neither candidate received sufficient votes to be placed on the November ballot.[77]
Write-in Candidates
Eliminated in primary
- Barry Hess, write-in Libertarian candidate in the 2018 United States Senate election in Arizona and Libertarian nominee in the 2014 Arizona gubernatorial election (Libertarian)[78][79]
- Alan White (Libertarian)[17]
Other candidates
Independents
General election
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[82] | Lean D (flip) | July 23, 2020 |
Inside Elections[83] | Tilt D (flip) | July 10, 2020 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[84] | Lean D (flip) | August 5, 2020 |
Daily Kos[85] | Lean D (flip) | July 22, 2020 |
Politico[86] | Lean D (flip) | July 6, 2020 |
RCP[87] | Tossup | August 6, 2020 |
Niskanen[88] | Likely D (flip) | July 26, 2020 |
270towin[89] | Likely D (flip) | August 6, 2020 |
Endorsements
Martha McSally (R) |
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Polling
Aggregate polls
Martha McSally vs Mark Kelly | ||||||
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Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Martha McSally | Mark Kelly | Other / Undecided[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin |
270 to Win | July 01, 2020 - July 26, 2020 | July 14, 2020 | 40.5% | 50.5% | 6.8% | Kelly + 10% |
Real Clear Politics | March 3, 2020 – June 2, 2020 | June 3, 2020 | 43% | 49.5% | 6.8% | Kelly + 6.5% |
JHK Forecasts | Apr 1, 2020 – | June 3, 2020 | 45.3% | 52.4% | 2.2% | Kelly + 7.1% |
Average | 42.2% | 50.7% | 5.2% | Kelly + 8.5% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Martha McSally (R) |
Mark Kelly (D) |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College | August 8–10, 2020 | 843 | ± 3.4% | 41% | 52% | 7% |
Change Research/CNBC | August 7–9, 2020 | 428 | ± 4.6% | 43% | 49% | 8% |
OH Predictive Insights | August 3–4, 2020 | 603 | ± 4.0% | 43% | 48% | 8% |
Data for Progress | July 24 – August 2, 2020 | 1,215 | ± 3.2% | 40% | 50% | 10% |
Change Research/CNBC | July 24–26, 2020 | 365 | ± 4.8% | 45% | 47% | 8% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | July 19–23, 2020 | 858 | ± 3.2% | 35% | 53% | 12% |
Morning Consult | July 17–26, 2020 | 908 | ± 3.0% | 36% | 52% | 13% |
CNN/SSRS | July 18–24, 2020 | 873 | ± 3.8% | 43% | 50% | 7% |
Public Policy Polling | July 21–22, 2020 | 816 | ± 3.2% | 42% | 51% | 7% |
NBC News/Marist | July 14–22, 2020 | 826 | ± 4.1% | 41% | 53% | 6% |
Spry Strategies (R) | July 11–16, 2020 | 700 | ± 3.7% | 41% | 48% | 11% |
Change Research/CNBC | July 10–12, 2020 | 345 | ± 4.6% | 45% | 52% | 3%[lower-alpha 3] |
CBS News/YouGov | July 7–10, 2020 | 1,099 | ± 3.8% | 42% | 46% | 12%[lower-alpha 4] |
OH Predictive Insights | July 6–7, 2020 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 43% | 52% | 6%[lower-alpha 5] |
Data Orbital | June 27–29, 2020 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 43% | 50% | 7%[lower-alpha 6] |
Gravis Marketing (R)[upper-alpha 1] | June 27, 2020 | 527 | ± 4.3% | 46% | 42% | 12%[lower-alpha 7] |
Change Research/CNBC | June 26–28, 2020 | 311[lower-alpha 8] | ± 5.8% | 44% | 53% | 3%[lower-alpha 9] |
Global Strategy Group (D) | June 19–24, 2020 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 42% | 49% | 9% |
Change Research (D)[upper-alpha 2] | June 20–23, 2020 | 946 | ± 3.2% | 42% | 50% | 8% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | June 14–17, 2020 | 865 | ± 3.3% | 34% | 49% | 17%[lower-alpha 10] |
NYT Upshot/Siena College | June 8–16, 2020 | 650 | ± 4.3% | 38% | 47% | 16%[lower-alpha 11] |
Civiqs/Daily Kos | June 13–15, 2020 | 1,368 | ± 2.9% | 42% | 51% | 7%[lower-alpha 12] |
FOX News | May 30 – June 2, 2020 | 1,002 | ± 3.9% | 37% | 50% | 13%[lower-alpha 13] |
HighGround Public Affairs | May 18–22, 2020 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 41% | 51% | 8%[lower-alpha 14] |
OH Predictive Insights | May 9–11, 2020 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 38% | 51% | 10%[lower-alpha 15] |
OH Predictive Insights | April 7–8, 2020 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 42% | 51% | 7% |
NBC News/Marist | March 10–15, 2020 | 2,523 | ± 2.7% | 45% | 48% | 7% |
Monmouth University | March 11–14, 2020 | 847 | ± 3.4% | 44% | 50% | 6% |
Univision/Arizona State University | March 6–11, 2020 | 1,036 | ± 3.0% | 36% | 48% | 16% |
OH Predictive Insights | March 3–4, 2020 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 42% | 49% | 8% |
Public Policy Polling | March 2–3, 2020 | 666 | ± 3.8% | 42% | 47% | 12% |
HighGround Public Affairs | February 7–9, 2020 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 39% | 46% | 15% |
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[upper-alpha 3] | January 22–24, 2020 | 1,000 | ± 3.1% | 47% | 45% | 8% |
Public Policy Polling | January 2–4, 2020 | 760 | ± 3.6% | 42% | 46% | 12% |
OH Predictive Insights | December 3–4, 2019 | 628 | ± 3.9% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
Emerson College | October 25–28, 2019 | 904 | ± 3.2% | 45% | 46% | 9% |
Change Research (D) | September 27–28, 2019 | 396 | ± 3.3% | 45% | 47% | 8% |
Bendixen & Amandi International | September 9–12, 2019 | 520 | ± 4.3% | 42% | 42% | 16% |
OH Predictive Insights | August 13–14, 2019 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 41% | 46% | 13% |
Fabrizio Ward/AARP | July 29–31, 2019 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 45% | 44% | 11%[lower-alpha 16] |
OH Predictive Insights | May 1–2, 2019 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 45% | 44% | 10% |
OH Predictive Insights | February 12–13, 2019 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 46% | 44% | 10% |
Hypothetical polling | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ± | |
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Republican | Martha McSally (incumbent) | ||||
Democratic | Mark Kelly | ||||
Write-in | |||||
Total votes | 100.0% |
Notes
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - Undecided with 2%; would not vote with 1%
- Undecided with 9%; "Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 0%
- Undecided with 5%; "Refused" with 1%
- Undecided with 5.2%; "Other" with 1.8%; "refused" with 0.4%
- Undecided with 12%
- Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
- Undecided with 3%; "Would not vote" with 0%
- Undecided with 14%; "Third party/write-in" with 3%
- Undecided with 14%; "Another candidate" and would not vote with 1%
- "Someone else" with 4%; unsure with 3%
- Undecided with 8%; "Other" with 3%; would not vote with 2%
- "Undecided/refused" with 5.8%; "some other candidate" with 1.8%
- Undecided with 10%
- Undecided with 9%; "Would not vote/would not vote for US Senate" with 2%
- Undecided with 14%, refused with 2%
- Partisan clients
- Polling was sponsored by OANN.
- This poll's sponsor, 314 Action, had endorsed Kelly prior to the sampling period
- Poll sponsored by the McSally campaign
- This poll's sponsor, 314 Action, had endorsed Kelly prior to the sampling period
- Poll sponsored by the McSally campaign
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- https://twitter.com/ChrisCoonsforDE/status/1273664814859026435
- Kirsten, Gillibrand [@SenGillibrand] (January 16, 2020). "I'm so proud to endorse @ShuttleCDRKelly for Senate in AZ. I've known Mark—and his wife @GabbyGiffords—for well over a decade. And I've watched him fight hard with Gabby for commonsense gun reform. We need his leadership in the Senate. Help him get there!" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- "Kamala Harris Endorsements". May 9, 2020.
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- Ben Ray Luján [@benraylujgan] (February 19, 2020). "I'm proud to support @CaptMarkKelly— an American hero who is running to beat Sen. McSally and bring common-sense leadership back to Arizona. Chip in to help me raise $10,000 for Mark tonight to prove that Trumpian politics have no place in the Southwest" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- Hale, Jennifer [@jhaletweets] (September 6, 2019). "anyone in Arizona REGISTER TO #VOTE people like this aren't leaders, they're bullies and tyrants who deserve to be #Voted out. support @ShuttleCDRKelly" (Tweet). Retrieved September 7, 2019 – via Twitter.
- DeLisle-Griffin, Grey [@@GreyDeLisle] (January 16, 2020). "Here's how you can donate to the cowardly, unelected, Trump shill @MarthaMcSally 's OPPONENT! #MarkKellyforSenate" (Tweet). Retrieved January 16, 2020 – via Twitter.
- Scovell, Nell [@@NellSco] (January 16, 2020). "I gave to Mark Kelly's campaign BEFORE Martha McSally denigrated and dismissed a member of the free press. American democracy is crumbling because the @GOP has eliminated a cornerstone. Don't let them get away without consequences for their actions" (Tweet). Retrieved January 17, 2020 – via Twitter.
- "Coalition to Stop Gun Violence Endorses Gun Violence Survivors, Speaker Pelosi, Congressional Allies". Coalition to Stop Gun Violence. March 23, 2020.
- "Everytown for Gun Safety Action Fund Endorses Mark Kelly for U.S. Senate in Arizona". Everytown. June 9, 2020.
- "Meet the 2020 Candidates". Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs.
- "2020 Federal Endorsements - NOW PAC". nowpac.org.
External links
- Official campaign websites