2020 United States presidential election in Florida

The 2020 United States presidential election in Florida is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate.[1] Florida voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Florida has 29 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]

Main article: 2020 United States presidential election

2020 United States presidential election in Florida

November 3, 2020
Turnout	%
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden Party Republican Democratic Home state Florida Delaware Running mate Mike Pence Kamala Harris
Incumbent President Donald Trump Republican

Miami Beach, Florida, which hosted the 1972 Democratic National Convention, was a finalist to host the 2020 Democratic National Convention.[3] The other finalists were Milwaukee and Houston. Milwaukee was ultimately decided as the host.[4][5]

Florida will also be incumbent president Donald Trump's home state for this election, after having identified New York as his home in 2016.[6] As a result, Trump became the first nominee of either major party to be from Florida.

Primary elections

The primary elections were held on March 17, 2020.

Primary elections

Republican primary The Florida secretary of state declared Rocky De La Fuente to be a major candidate and thus worthy of automatic inclusion on the ballot. This section is an excerpt from 2020 Florida Republican presidential primary[edit] 2020 Florida Republican primary[7][8] Candidate Votes % Estimated delegates Donald Trump 1,162,984 93.79 122 Bill Weld 39,319 3.17 Joe Walsh (withdrawn) 25,464 2.05 Rocky De La Fuente 12,172 0.98 Total 1,239,939 100% 122 Democratic primary Three Democrats were still in race by the time Florida held its primaries: Vermont senator Bernie Sanders, former vice president Joe Biden, and representative from Hawaii Tulsi Gabbard.[9][10][11] The first Democratic debate took place in Miami over two nights at the end of June 2019. It was broadcast on several of the NBC networks.[12] This section is an excerpt from 2020 Florida Democratic presidential primary[edit] 2020 Florida Democratic presidential primary[13] Candidate Votes % Delegates[14] Joe Biden 1,077,375 61.95 162 Bernie Sanders 397,311 22.84 57 Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn) 146,544 8.43 0 Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn) 39,886 2.29 0 Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn) 32,875 1.89 0 Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn) 17,276 0.99 0 Tulsi Gabbard 8,712 0.50 0 Andrew Yang (withdrawn) 5,286 0.30 0 Michael Bennet (withdrawn) 4,244 0.24 0 Tom Steyer (withdrawn) 2,510 0.14 0 Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) 1,744 0.10 0 John Delaney (withdrawn) 1,583 0.09 0 Cory Booker (withdrawn) 1,507 0.09 0 Julián Castro (withdrawn) 1,036 0.06 0 Joe Sestak (withdrawn) 664 0.04 0 Deval Patrick (withdrawn) 661 0.04 0 Total 1,739,214 100% 219

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[15]	Lean D (flip)	July 23, 2020
Inside Elections[16]	Tilt D (flip)	July 17, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[17]	Tossup	July 14, 2020
Politico[18]	Tossup	July 6, 2020
RCP[19]	Tossup	August 3, 2020
Niskanen[20]	Tossup	March 24, 2020
CNN[21]	Tossup	August 3, 2020
The Economist[22]	Lean D (flip)	August 7, 2020
CBS News[23]	Tossup	August 9, 2020
270towin[24]	Tossup	August 2, 2020
ABC News[25]	Lean D (flip)	July 31, 2020
NPR[26]	Lean D (flip)	August 3, 2020
NBC News[27]	Lean D (flip)	August 6, 2020
538[28]	Tilt D (flip)	August 14, 2020

Polling

Aggregate polls

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Joe Biden	Donald Trump	Other/Undecided[lower-alpha 1]	Margin
270 to Win	July 17–26, 2020	July 30, 2020	49.2%	44.8%	6.0%	Biden +4.4
Real Clear Politics	July 18 – August 9, 2020	August 13, 2020	50.3%	45.3%	4.4%	Biden +5.0
FiveThirtyEight	until July 26, 2020	August 9, 2020	49.2%	43.9%	6.9%	Biden +5.3
Average			49.6%	44.7%	5.7%	Biden +4.9

State polls

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Jo Jorgensen Libertarian	Howie Hawkins Green	Other	Undecided
CNBC/Change Research	Aug 7–9, 2020	469 (LV)	–	44%	50%	-	-	–
Sunday Express/Democracy Institute	Jul 29–31, 2020	500 (LV)	± 4.0%	47%	45%	-	-	–	8%
Change Research/CNBC	Jul 24–26, 2020	685 (LV)	–	45%	48%	-	-	–	–
Morning Consult	Jul 17–26, 2020	3,760 (LV)	± 1.6%	46%	49%	-	-	–	–
CNN/SSRS	Jul 18–24, 2020	880 (RV)	± 3.8%	46%	51%	-	-	2%[lower-alpha 3]	2%
Zogby Analytics	July 21–23, 2020	811 (RV)	± 3.4%	43%	43%	3%	2%	-	–
Mason-Dixon	Jul 20–23, 2020	625 (RV)	± 4.0%	46%	50%	-	-	–	4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	Jul 19–21, 2020	1,121 (RV)	–	41%	48%	1%	1%	1%	8%
Quinnipiac University	Jul 16–20, 2020	924 (RV)	± 4.3%	38%	51%	-	-	4%	5%
Florida Politics/AARP Florida/St. Pete Polls	Jul 13–14, 2020	3,018 (RV)	± 1.8%	44%	50%	-	-	2%[lower-alpha 4]	3%
Gravis Marketing	Jul 13, 2020	513 (LV)	± 4.3%	43%	53%	-	-	–	4%
Change Research/CNBC	Jul 10–12, 2020	1,128 (LV)	–	43%	50%	-	-	–	–
CBS News/YouGov	Jul 7–10, 2020	1,206 (LV)	± 3.6%	42%	48%	-	-	2%[lower-alpha 5]	8%
Trafalgar Group	Jun 29 – Jul 2, 2020	1,072 (LV)	± 2.91%	46%	46%	-	-	5%[lower-alpha 6]	3%
Change Research/CNBC	Jun 26–28, 2020	951 (LV)[lower-alpha 7]	–	45%	50%	-	-	–	–
Fox News	Jun 20–23, 2020	1,010 (RV)	± 3%	40%	49%	-	-	6%[lower-alpha 8]	6%
NYT Upshot/Siena College	Jun 8–18, 2020	651 (RV)	± 4.6%	41%	47%	-	-	4%[lower-alpha 9]	7%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	Jun 14–15, 2020	1,079 (LV)	± 2.98%	41%	45%	1%	1%	1%	11%
Change Research/CNBC	Jun 12–14, 2020	713 (LV)[lower-alpha 10]	–	43%	50%	-	-	3%[lower-alpha 11]	–
Gravis Marketing/OANN	Released Jun 11, 2020	–[lower-alpha 12]	–	50%	50%	-	-	–	–
American Greatness/TIPP	Jun 9–11, 2020	875 (LV)	–	40%	51%	-	-	4%[lower-alpha 13]	5%
Change Research/CNBC	May 29–31, 2020	1,186 (LV)[lower-alpha 14]	–	45%	48%	-	-	2%	4%
Cygnal (R)	May 18–30, 2020	881 (LV)	± 3.3%	43.8%	47%	-	-	3.3%[lower-alpha 15]	5.9%
St. Pete Polls	May 26–27, 2020	4,763 (RV)	± 1.4%	46.7%	47.5%	-	-	2.7%[lower-alpha 16]	3.1%
Point Blank Political	May 14–17, 2020	2,149 (LV)	± 3.5%	44%	45%	1%[lower-alpha 17]	<1%[lower-alpha 18]	2%	8%
Point Blank Political	May 14–17, 2020	2,149 (LV)	± 3.5%	48%	52%	-	-	–	–
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	May 10–14, 2020	1,014 (LV)	± 3.1%	43%	45%	-	-	3%[lower-alpha 19]	10%
Florida Atlantic University	May 8–12, 2020	928 (RV)	± 3.1%	47%	53%	-	-	–	–
Fox News	Apr 18–21, 2020	1,004 (RV)	± 3.0%	43%	46%	-	-	3%	7%
Quinnipiac University	Apr 16–20, 2020	1,385 (RV)	± 2.6%	42%	46%	-	-	3%	7%
St. Pete Polls	Apr 16–17, 2020	5,659 (RV)	± 1.3%	48%	48%	-	-	–	4%
University of North Florida	Mar 31 – Apr 4, 2020	3,244 (RV)	± 1.7%	40%	46%	-	-	–	8%
AtlasIntel	Mar 14–16, 2020	1,100 (RV)	± 3.0%	45%	45%	-	-	10%	–
Univision	Mar 6–12, 2020	1,071 (RV)	± 3.0%	48%	45%	-	-	–	7%
Florida Atlantic University	Mar 5–7, 2020	1,216 (RV)	± 2.7%	51%	49%	-	-	–	–
Saint Leo University	Feb 17–22, 2020	900 (LV)	± 3.5%	40%	51%	-	-	–	8%
University of North Florida	Feb 10–18, 2020	668 (RV)	–	48%	49%	-	-	–	3%
Florida Atlantic University	Jan 9–12, 2020	1,285 (RV)	± 2.6%	49%	51%	-	-	–	–
Cherry Communications/Florida Chamber of Commerce[upper-alpha 1]	Jan 3–12, 2020	608 (LV)	± 4%	49%	45%	-	-	–	–
Mason-Dixon	Dec 11–16, 2019	625 (RV)	± 4.0%	45%	47%	-	-	–	8%
NYT Upshot/Siena College	Oct 13–26, 2019	650 (LV)	± 4.4%	44%	46%	-	-	–	–
University of North Florida	Oct 14–20, 2019	643 (RV)	± 3.8%	43%	48%	-	-	6%[lower-alpha 20]	3%
Florida Atlantic University	Sep 12–15, 2019	934	± 3.1%	50.5%	49.5%	-	-	–	–
Quinnipiac University	Jun 12–17, 2019	1,279	± 3.3%	41%	50%	-	-	1%	6%
St. Pete Polls	Jun 15–16, 2019	3,095	± 1.8%	47%	47%	-	-	–	6%
Florida Atlantic University	May 16–19, 2019	1,007	± 3.0%	50%	50%	-	-	–	–
WPA Intelligence	Apr 27–30, 2019	200	± 6.9%	48%	44%	-	-	–	7%

Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Michael Bloomberg (D) Other Undecided Saint Leo University Feb 17–22, 2020 900 (LV) ± 3.5% 36% 52% – 12% University of North Florida Feb 10–18, 2020 672 (RV) – 44% 50% – 6% Cherry Communications/Florida Chamber of Commerce[upper-alpha 1] Jan 3–12, 2020 608 (LV) ± 4% 49% 44% – – Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Pete Buttigieg (D) Other Undecided Saint Leo University Feb 17–22, 2020 900 (LV) ± 3.5% 40% 45% – 15% University of North Florida Feb 10–18, 2020 664 (RV) – 49% 45% – 7% Florida Atlantic University Jan 9–12, 2020 1,285 (RV) ± 2.6% 50% 50% – – Cherry Communications/Florida Chamber of Commerce[upper-alpha 1] Jan 3–12, 2020 608 (LV) ± 4% 50% 43% – – Mason-Dixon Dec 11–16, 2019 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 49% 45% – 6% University of North Florida Oct 14–20, 2019 643 (RV) ± 3.8% 43% 42% 7%[lower-alpha 21] 9% Quinnipiac University Jun 12–17, 2019 1,279 ± 3.3% 43% 44% 1% 9% Florida Atlantic University May 16–19, 2019 1,007 ± 3.0% 52% 48% – – Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Kamala Harris (D) Other Undecided University of North Florida Oct 14–20, 2019 643 (RV) ± 3.8% 44% 41% 8%[lower-alpha 22] 7% Florida Atlantic University Sep 12–15, 2019 934 ± 3.1% 52% 48% – – Quinnipiac University Jun 12–17, 2019 1,279 ± 3.3% 44% 45% 1% 7% Florida Atlantic University May 16–19, 2019 1,007 ± 3.0% 53% 47% – – Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Amy Klobuchar (D) Other Undecided Saint Leo University Feb 17–22, 2020 900 (LV) ± 3.5% 41% 43% – 16% University of North Florida Feb 10–18, 2020 662 (RV) – 48% 44% – 8% Donald Trump vs. Beto O'Rourke Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Beto O'Rourke (D) Other Undecided Quinnipiac University Jun 12–17, 2019 1,279 ± 3.3% 44% 45% 1% 7% Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Bernie Sanders (D) Other Undecided AtlasIntel Mar 14–16, 2020 1,100 (RV) ± 3.0% 48% 41% 11% – Univision Mar 6–12, 2020 1,071 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 42% – 8% Florida Atlantic University Mar 5–7, 2020 1,216 (LV) ± 2.7% 53% 47% – – Saint Leo University Feb 17–22, 2020 900 (LV) ± 3.5% 40% 49% – 11% University of North Florida Feb 10–18, 2020 671 (RV) – 48% 48% – 4% Florida Atlantic University Jan 9–12, 2020 1,285 (RV) ± 2.6% 47% 53% – – Mason-Dixon Dec 11–16, 2019 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 49% 44% – 7% NYT Upshot/Siena College Oct 13–26, 2019 650 (LV) ± 4.4% 45% 44% – – Florida Atlantic University Sep 12–15, 2019 934 ± 3.1% 50.5% 49.5% – – Quinnipiac University Jun 12–17, 2019 1,279 ± 3.3% 42% 48% 1% 6% Florida Atlantic University May 16–19, 2019 1,007 ± 3.0% 51% 49% – – Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Elizabeth Warren (D) Other Undecided Saint Leo University Feb 17–22, 2020 900 (LV) ± 3.5% 42% 44% – 14% University of North Florida Feb 10–18, 2020 661 (RV) – 47% 47% – 6% Florida Atlantic University Jan 9–12, 2020 1,285 (RV) ± 2.6% 49% 51% – – Cherry Communications/Florida Chamber of Commerce[upper-alpha 1] Jan 3–12, 2020 608 (LV) ± 4% 50% 43% – – Mason-Dixon Dec 11–16, 2019 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 51% 42% – 7% NYT Upshot/Siena College Oct 13–26, 2019 650 (LV) ± 4.4% 46% 42% – – University of North Florida Oct 14–20, 2019 643 (RV) ± 3.8% 43% 46% 6%[lower-alpha 23] 6% Florida Atlantic University Sep 12–15, 2019 934 ± 3.1% 50% 50% – – Quinnipiac University Jun 12–17, 2019 1,279 ± 3.3% 43% 47% 1% 6% Florida Atlantic University May 16–19, 2019 1,007 ± 3.0% 52% 48% – – Zogby Analytics Aug 17–23, 2017 828 ± 3.4% 39% 48% – 14%

Hypothetical polling

with Donald Trump and Oprah Winfrey Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Oprah Winfrey (D) Other Undecided Dixie Strategies Jan 9–10, 2018 785 ± 3.5% 48% 24% 15% 13% with Donald Trump and generic Democrat Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Generic Democrat Undecided Public Policy Polling (D)[lower-alpha 24] Jun 14–16, 2019 679 ± 3.8% 44% 51% 6% Mason-Dixon Jan 14–17, 2019 625 ± 4.0% 45% 46% 9% with Donald Trump and generic Opponent Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Generic Opponent Undecided Quinnipiac University Mar 6–11, 2019 1,058 (V) ± 3.7% 31% 51%[lower-alpha 25] 18%[lower-alpha 26] with Mike Pence and Joe Biden Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Mike Pence (R) Joe Biden (D) Other Undecided University of North Florida Oct 14–20, 2019 643 (RV) ± 3.8% 39% 49% 8%[lower-alpha 27] 5% with Mike Pence and Elizabeth Warren Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Mike Pence (R) Elizabeth Warren (D) Other Undecided University of North Florida Oct 14–20, 2019 643 (RV) ± 3.8% 40% 46% 8%[lower-alpha 28] 6%

See also

• 2020 United States presidential election
• 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2020 United States elections

Notes

1. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
2. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
3. "Other" with 1%; "Neither" 1%
4. "Third-party candidate" with 2%
5. "Someone else/third party" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
6. "Other party candidate" with 5%
7. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
8. "Other" with 4%; would not vote with 2%
9. "Another candidate" and would not vote with 2%
10. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
11. "Libertarian Party candidate/Green Party candidate" with 3%
12. Not yet released
13. "Other" with 3%; "prefer not to answer" with 1%
14. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
15. "Third party candidate" with 3.3%
16. "Third party" with 2.7%
17. "Libertarian nominee" with 1.2%
18. "Green nominee" with 0.4%
19. "Third party/write-in" with 3%
20. Wouldn't vote with 6%
21. Wouldn't vote with 7%
22. Wouldn't vote with 8%
23. Wouldn't vote with 6%
24. Poll sponsored by the League of Conservation Voters
25. "Would definitely not vote for Trump" with 51%
26. "Consider voting for Trump" with 14%; "don't know/no answer" with 4%
27. Wouldn't vote with 8%
28. Wouldn't vote with 8%

Partisan clients

1. Poll sponsored by the Florida Chamber of Commerce PAC

References

1. Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
2. "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
3. "Cruise ship hotels, zoo parties and an NBA arena: Miami's Democratic convention pitch". miamiherald. Retrieved July 1, 2018.
4. "City of Milwaukee 1 of 3 finalists to host 2020 Democratic National Convention". FOX6Now.com. June 20, 2018. Retrieved July 1, 2018.
5. Glauber, Bill (August 22, 2018). "Selection committee for 2020 Democratic Convention will visit Milwaukee next week". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Retrieved August 24, 2018.
6. Haberman, Maggie (November 4, 2019). "Trump, Lifelong New Yorker, Declares Himself a Resident of Florida". The New York Times.
7. "March 17, 2020 Primary Election". Florida Department of State. Florida Division of Elections. March 31, 2020. Retrieved April 8, 2020.
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10. Zhou, Li (January 21, 2019). "Kamala Harris announces her historic 2020 presidential campaign". Vox. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
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18. "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
19. "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
20. 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
21. David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
22. "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
23. "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
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25. "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
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28. "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 14, 2020.