2020 United States presidential election in Ohio

The 2020 United States presidential election in Ohio is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate.[1] Absentee voters can request a ballot for the general election anytime after the first of the year. [2] Ohio voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Ohio has 18 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]

Main article: 2020 United States presidential election

2020 United States presidential election in Ohio

November 3, 2020
Turnout	%
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden Party Republican Democratic Home state Florida Delaware Running mate Mike Pence Kamala Harris
Incumbent President Donald Trump Republican

By the time that the primary elections were held in Ohio on April 28, 2020, incumbent President Donald Trump was already the Republican Party's presumptive nominee, being the only viable declared major candidate left. On the Democratic Party's side, Vice President Joe Biden became the presumptive nominee after Senator Bernie Sanders, his last competitor, withdrew on April 8, 2020.

Primary elections

The primary elections were originally scheduled for March 17, 2020. On March 16, Ohio governor Mike DeWine recommended moving the primaries to June amid concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic. The governor does not have the power to unilaterally make this decision, and thus went to court to request the delay.[4] However, a judge rejected the lawsuit.[5] Later in the day, the state's Health Director ordered the polls closed as a health emergency.[6] On March 17, the Ohio Supreme Court allowed the primaries to be postponed to June 2.[7] Then on March 25, in-person voting was canceled, and the deadline for mail-in voting was moved back to April 28.[8]

Republican primary

Incumbent President Donald Trump ran unopposed in the Republican primary, and thus received all of Ohio's 82 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[9]

2020 Ohio Republican primary

Candidate	Votes	%	Delegates
Donald Trump	682,845	100	82
Total	682,845	100.00	82

Democratic primary

2020 Ohio Democratic presidential primary[10]

Candidate	Votes	%	Delegates[11]
Joe Biden	647,284	72.37	115
Bernie Sanders (suspended)	149,683	16.74	21
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn)	30,985	3.46	0
Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn)	28,704	3.21	0
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn)	15,113	1.69	0
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn)	11,899	1.33	0
Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn)	4,560	0.51	0
Tom Steyer (withdrawn)	2,801	0.31	0
Michael Bennet (withdrawn)	2,030	0.23	0
Deval Patrick (withdrawn)	822	0.09	0
Andrew Yang (withdrawn) (write-in)	502	0.06	0
Total	894,383	100%	136

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
FiveThirtyEight[12]	Lean R	August 12, 2020
The Cook Political Report[13]	Lean R	July 23, 2020
Inside Elections[14]	Tilt R	July 17, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15]	Lean R	July 14, 2020
Politico[16]	Lean R	July 6, 2020
RCP[17]	Tossup	August 3, 2020
Niskanen[18]	Lean R	March 24, 2020
CNN[19]	Tossup	August 3, 2020
The Economist[20]	Tossup	August 7, 2020
CBS News[21]	Tossup	August 9, 2020
270towin[22]	Tossup	August 2, 2020
ABC News[23]	Lean R	July 31, 2020
NPR[24]	Tossup	August 3, 2020
NBC News[25]	Tossup	August 6, 2020

Polling

Aggregate polls

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Joe Biden	Donald Trump	Other/Undecided[lower-alpha 1]	Margin
270 to Win	June 24, 2020 – July 26, 2020	July 28, 2020	45.3%	45.3%	9.4%	Even
Real Clear Politics	June 24, 2020 - July 24, 2020	July 28, 2020	47.0%	44.7%	8.3%	Biden +2.3
FiveThirtyEight	June 18, 2020 - July 26, 2020	August 10, 2020	46.0%	45.5%	8.5%	Biden +0.5
Average			46.1%	45.2%	8.7%	Biden +0.9

June 1, 2020 – October 31, 2020

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Donald Trump (R)	Joe Biden (D)	Jo Jorgensen (L)	Howie Hawkins (G)	Other	Undecided
Morning Consult	Jul 17–26, 2020	1,741 (LV)	± 2.3%	48%	45%	–	–	–	–
YouGov	Jul 21–24, 2020	1,227 (RV)	± 3.6%	46%	45%	–	–	2%	7%
Zogby Analytics	July 21–23, 2020	805 (RV)	± 3.5%	41%	43%	4%	1%	–	–
Rasmussen Reports	Jul 15–16, 2020	750 (LV)	–	46%	50%	–	–	2%	2%
University of Akron	Jun 24–July 15, 2020	1,037 (RV)	± 3.0%	42%	46%	–	–	–	–
Quinnipiac	Jun 18–22, 2020	1,139 (RV)	± 2.9%	45%	46%	–	–	4%[lower-alpha 3]	5%

January 1, 2020 – May 31, 2020

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Donald Trump (R)	Joe Biden (D)	Other	Undecided
Fox News	May 30 – Jun 2, 2020	803 (RV)	± 3.5%	43%	45%	6%[lower-alpha 4]	6%
Morning Consult	May 17-26, 2020	1,741 (LV)	± 2.3%	50%	42%	–	–
Emerson College	May 8–10, 2020	725 (RV)	± 3.5%	46%	43%	–	11%
Baldwin Wallace University/Oakland University/Ohio Northern University	Apr 20–25, 2020	797 (RV)	± 3.7%	44%	45%	–	11%
Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes	Mar 17–25, 2020	1,025 (RV)	± 3.3%	47%	43%	–	10%
Change Research	Mar 21–23, 2020	510 (LV)	–	52%	44%	–	5%
NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist College	Mar 10–13, 2020	1,710 (RV)	± 2.9%	45%	49%	1%	5%

January 1, 2018 – December 31, 2019

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Donald Trump (R)	Joe Biden (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	Oct 10–11, 2019	776	± 3.5%	46%	48%	–	6%
Climate Nexus[lower-alpha 5]	Oct 1–7, 2019	1112 (LV)	± 2.9%	47%	53%	–	–
				42%	48%	–	10%
Emerson College	Sep 29 – Oct 2, 2019	837	± 3.2%	47%	53%	–	–
Quinnipiac University	Jul 17–22, 2019	1,431	± 3.2%	42%	50%	–	–
Public Policy Polling	Nov 27–28, 2018	648	± 3.9%	44%	48%	–	8%

Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Cory Booker Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Cory Booker (D) Undecided Quinnipiac University Jul 17–22, 2019 1,431 ± 3.2% 44% 43% – Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Pete Buttegieg (D) Undecided Public Policy Polling Oct 10–11, 2019 776 ± 3.5% 47% 43% 10% Climate Nexus[lower-alpha 5] Oct 1–7, 2019 1112 (LV) ± 2.9% 50% 50% – Climate Nexus Oct 1–7, 2019 1112 (LV) ± 2.9% 46% 43% 11% Quinnipiac University Jul 17–22, 2019 1,431 ± 3.2% 44% 44% – Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Kamala Harris (D) Undecided Public Policy Polling Oct 10–11, 2019 776 ± 3.5% 47% 43% 10% Climate Nexus[lower-alpha 5] Oct 1–7, 2019 1112 (LV) ± 2.9% 50% 50% – Climate Nexus Oct 1–7, 2019 1112 (LV) ± 2.9% 46% 43% 11% Quinnipiac University Jul 17–22, 2019 1,431 ± 3.2% 44% 44% – Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Bernie Sanders (D) Other Undecided Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes Mar 17–25, 2020 1,025 (RV) ± 3.3% 47% 41% – 12% NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist College Mar 10–13, 2020 1,710 (RV) ± 2.9% 46% 48% 1% 5% Public Policy Polling Oct 10–11, 2019 776 ± 3.5% 47% 47% – 7% Climate Nexus[lower-alpha 5] Oct 1–7, 2019 1112 (LV) ± 2.9% 48% 52% – – 45% 47% – 8% Emerson College Sep 29 – Oct 2, 2019 837 ± 3.2% 47% 53% – – Quinnipiac University Jul 17–22, 2019 1,431 ± 3.2% 46% 45% – – Public Policy Polling Nov 27–28, 2018 648 ± 3.9% 46% 47% – 7% Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Elizabeth Warren (D) Undecided Public Policy Polling Oct 10–11, 2019 776 ± 3.5% 47% 47% 6% Climate Nexus[lower-alpha 5] Oct 1–7, 2019 1112 (LV) ± 2.9% 49% 51% – Climate Nexus Oct 1–7, 2019 1112 (LV) ± 2.9% 45% 46% 9% Emerson College Sep 29 – Oct 2, 2019 837 ± 3.2% 48% 52% – Quinnipiac University Jul 17–22, 2019 1,431 ± 3.2% 46% 45% – Public Policy Polling Nov 27–28, 2018 648 ± 3.9% 49% 43% 9% Zogby Analytics Aug 17–23, 2017 805 ± 3.5% 40% 44% 16%

Hypothetical polling

with Donald Trump and Sherrod Brown Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Sherrod Brown (D) Undecided Public Policy Polling Nov 27–28, 2018 648 ± 3.9% 42% 48% 10% with Mike Pence and Joe Biden Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Mike Pence (R) Joe Biden (D) Emerson College Sep 29 – Oct 2, 2019 837 ± 3.2% 46% 54% with Mike Pence and Bernie Sanders Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Mike Pence (R) Bernie Sanders (D) Emerson College Sep 29 – Oct 2, 2019 837 ± 3.2% 49% 51% with Mike Pence and Elizabeth Warren Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Mike Pence (R) Elizabeth Warren (D) Emerson College Sep 29 – Oct 2, 2019 837 ± 3.2% 49% 51% with Donald Trump and Generic Democrat Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Generic Democrat (D) Other Undecided Baldwin Wallace University/Oakland University/Ohio Northern University Mar 17–25, 2020 997 (RV) ± 3.7% 49.4%[lower-alpha 6] 48.3% – 2.1%[lower-alpha 7] Baldwin Wallace University/Oakland University/Ohio Northern University Jan 8–20, 2020 1,031 (RV) ± 3.1% 41.3%[lower-alpha 8] 47.1% – 11.5% Public Policy Polling Oct 10–11, 2019 776 ± 3.5% 47% 48% – 5% Ohio Northern University Apr 5–10, 2019 1,505 (A) ± 2.7% 34% 41% – 18% Baldwin Wallace University Apr 24 – May 2, 2018 811 ± 3.5% 41% 44% 6% 9% Baldwin Wallace University Feb 28 – Mar 9, 2018 1,011 ± 3.0% 34% 32% – – with John Kasich and Generic Democrat Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 2] Margin of error John Kasich (R) Generic Democrat Other Undecided Baldwin Wallace University Apr 24 – May 2, 2018 811 ± 3.5% 37% 31% 13% 19% Baldwin Wallace University Feb 28 – Mar 9, 2018 1,011 ± 3.0% 41% 20% 12% –

See also

• 2020 United States presidential election
• 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2020 United States elections

Notes

1. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
2. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
3. "Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 1%
4. "Other" with 4%; would not vote with 2%
5. The poll below displays the results for voters who are sure how they will vote. This one incorporates the preferences of those who lean towards one of two candidates.
6. Figures for each candidate in this poll include undecided voters who were reported to lean towards that candidate at the time of polling.
7. "It depends on who the Democrats nominate" with 1.4%; "unsure" with 0.7%
8. Figures for each candidate in this poll include undecided voters who were reported to lean towards that candidate at the time of polling.

References

1. Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
2. https://www.ohiosos.gov/elections/voters/absentee-voting/
3. "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
4. Merica, Dan (March 16, 2020). "Ohio governor recommends delaying Tuesday's primary until June amid coronavirus pandemic". CNN. Retrieved March 16, 2020.
5. "Judge rejects lawsuit to delay Ohio's primary election". WBNS-TV. March 16, 2020. Retrieved March 16, 2020.
6. "Ohio health chief to order polls closed ahead of primary amid coronavirus". fox8.com. March 16, 2020. Retrieved March 16, 2020.
7. "Coronavirus: Ohio Supreme Court allows delay to primary election". The Columbus Dispatch. March 17, 2020.
8. "Ohio to run all-mail primary through April 28". Politico. March 25, 2020.
9. "Ohio Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved April 28, 2020.
10. "2020 ELECTIONS RESULTS". Ohio Secretary of State. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
11. "Delegate Tracker". interactives.ap.org. Associated Press. Retrieved April 30, 2020.
12. "Our 2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved 2020-08-12.
13. "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
14. "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
15. "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
16. "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
17. "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
18. 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
19. David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved 2020-06-16.
20. "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved 7 July 2020.
21. "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
22. "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
23. "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
24. "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved 2020-08-03.
25. "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved 2020-08-06.