2020 United States Senate election in Kansas

The 2020 United States Senate election in Kansas will be held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Kansas, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

2020 United States Senate election in Kansas

November 3, 2020

Nominee Roger Marshall Barbara Bollier Party Republican Democratic

Incumbent U.S. senator Pat Roberts Republican

On January 4, 2019, incumbent Republican Senator Pat Roberts announced he would not run for a fifth term.[1] Candidates had until June 1, 2020 to file to run for the open seat or to drop out if they already filed.[2] The U.S. Senate primaries were held on August 4, 2020.[3][4] Republican U.S. Representative Roger Marshall and Democratic state senator Barbara Bollier are their respective parties' nominees.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Roger Marshall, incumbent U.S. Representative for Kansas's 1st congressional district[5]

Eliminated in primary

• Kris Kobach, former Secretary of State of Kansas and Republican nominee for Governor of Kansas in 2018[6]
• Bob Hamilton, businessman[7]
• Lance Berland[8]
• John L. Berman[8]
• Derek Ellis[8]
• Dave Lindstrom, board chairman for the Kansas Turnpike Authority, former Kansas City Chiefs player, Republican nominee for Lieutenant Governor of Kansas in 2002[9]
• Brian Matlock, economics graduate student[10]
• John Miller[8]
• Steve Roberts, member of the Kansas Board of Education[11]
• Gabriel Mark Robles[8]

Withdrawn

• Jake LaTurner, Kansas State Treasurer (running for U.S. House in District 2)[12]
• Bryan Pruitt, conservative commentator[13]
• Susan Wagle, President of the Kansas Senate[14][15]

Declined

• Alan Cobb, president of the Kansas Chamber of Commerce[16]
• Jeff Colyer, former Governor of Kansas and Lieutenant Governor of Kansas[17][18][19][20][21] (endorsed Roger Marshall)[22]
• Ron Estes, incumbent U.S. Representative for Kansas's 4th congressional district and former Kansas State Treasurer[23] (running for reelection)
• Wink Hartman, oilman and restaurant owner, nominee for Lieutenant Governor of Kansas in 2018[17][18][19]
• Ajit Pai, chairman of the Federal Communications Commission[24]
• Mike Pompeo, United States Secretary of State, former Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, and former U.S. Representative for Kansas's 4th congressional district[25][26][27][28]
• Pat Roberts, incumbent U.S. Senator[1] (endorsed Roger Marshall)[29][30]
• Matt Schlapp, incumbent chairman of the American Conservative Union and former director of the Office of Political Affairs[17][31]
• Derek Schmidt, Kansas Attorney General[32]
• Scott Schwab, Kansas Secretary of State[33][34]

Primary Debate

In a live-streamed debate on May 22, 2020, in a ballroom devoid of spectators due to the COVID-19 pandemic, all five major candidates praised president Donald Trump. Kobach took on his opponents who all agreed that he could not win the general election against presumptive Democratic nominee, Bollier.[35] Marshall said, "We cannot afford to send a failed candidate back this fall who will lose to Barbara Bollier and hand the Senate majority over to Chuck Schumer." "Instead, we need to send a tried and trusted friend of President Trump." Referring to Marshall, Kobach replied, "Do you want a go-along-to-get-along kind of senator, a gutless wonder who never takes a stand, or, do you want someone who poses a threat?" Hamilton said voters didn't have to choose between Kobach, who couldn't win, and a moderate Marshall,[35] in whose behest the state party leaders had urged Senator Wagle and Lindstrom, to drop out of the race.[35] Objecting to the party pressure, Lindstrom characterized his opponents as "shortsighted, self-serving...career politicians who are divisive, controversial," and, "have a record of losing elections."[35] Wagle touted her own candidacy, saying, "It’s very, very important that we send a leader to the U.S. Senate who is articulate, who is persuasive, who other people respect." "I'm the one who's already debated Barbara Bollier." "I win on the Senate floor. I've beat (sic) her numerous times," "...the conservative voice that can beat that liberal voice in the U.S. Senate," she said.[35] In response to a claim that he would not prioritize the issue of agriculture, Marshall said, "Fake news and another lie by Kris Kobach."[35]

Endorsements

Kris Kobach

Organizations Gun Owners of America[36] National File[37] National Association for Gun Rights[38] America First Media[39] National Border Patrol Council[40] Kansas Operation Rescue[41] Open Up Kansas Coalition[42] Individuals David Barton, former Texas Republican Party vice chair[43] Ann Coulter, Fox News correspondent, conservative commentator and lawyer[44][45] James Dobson, Focus on the Family founder[43] Nick Fuentes, paleo-conservative commentator and activist[46] Michelle Malkin, Newsmax television anchor and paleo-conservative commentator[47] Peter Thiel, entrepreneur and venture capitalist[44][45] Lauren Witzke, conservative activist and Republican U.S. Senate candidate in Delaware[47]

Dave Lindstrom
State officials Dave Owen, former Lieutenant Governor (1973–1975)[48]

Roger Marshall

Federal officials Bob Dole, 1996 Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. Senator from Kansas (1969–1996), former Senate Majority Leader (1985–1987, 1995–1996), 1976 Republican vice presidential nominee, former U.S. Representative (KS-06, 1961–1963; KS-01, 1963–1969)[49] Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the United States House of Representatives and former U.S. Representative (GA-06, 1979-1999)[50] Pat Roberts, U.S. Senator from Kansas (1997–present) and former U.S. Representative (KS-01, 1981–1997)[29][30] Organizations Family Policy Alliance of Kansas[51] Family Research Council (FRC) Action[52] Kansans for Life (KFL) PAC[41] Kansas Farm Bureau[53] Kansas Livestock Association[54] National Right to Life Committee[55] U.S. Chamber of Commerce[56]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Bob Hamilton	Kris Kobach	Dave Lindstrom	Roger Marshall	Susan Wagle	Other	Undecided
Civiqs/Daily Kos	May 30 – June 1, 2020	419 (LV)	–	15%	35%	4%	26%	–	4%[lower-alpha 2]	16%
	May 28, 2020	Wagle withdraws from the race
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[upper-alpha 1]	May 10–12, 2020	600 (V)	±  4%	6%	26%	4%	33%	7%	–	24%
	March 30, 2020	Hamilton announces his candidacy
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[upper-alpha 2]	February 12–16, 2020	300 (LV)	± 5.6%	2%	40%	5%	23%	8%	–	21%
co/efficient (R)	January 19–20, 2020	1,246 LV	± 3.2%	–	29%	–	29%	6%	9%[lower-alpha 3]	28%
The Tarrance Group (R)[upper-alpha 3]	October 21–23, 2019	607 (LV)	± 4.1%	–	43%	3%	24%	8%	5%[lower-alpha 4]	16%

Hypothetical polling

with only Kris Kobach and Roger Marshall Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 1] Margin of error Kris Kobach Roger Marshall Public Opinion Strategies (R)[upper-alpha 1] May 10-12, 2020 600 (V) ± 4% 34% 48% with only Bob Hamilton, Kris Kobach and Roger Marshall Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 1] Margin of error Bob Hamilton Kris Kobach Roger Marshall Public Opinion Strategies (R)[upper-alpha 1] May 10-12, 2020 600 (V) ± 4% 10% 29% 41% with Mike Pompeo and Susan Wagle Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 1] Margin of error Kris Kobach Roger Marshall Mike Pompeo Other Undecided NRSC[upper-alpha 3] October 21–23, 2019 607 (LV) ± 4.1% 17% 11% 54% 7%[lower-alpha 5] 10% with only Kris Kobach and Mike Pompeo Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 1] Margin of error Kris Kobach Mike Pompeo NRSC[upper-alpha 3] October 21–23, 2019 607 (LV) ± 4.1% 24% 68%

Results

Primary results by county

Marshall

•   Marshall—60%-70%
•   Marshall—50%-60%
•   Marshall—40%-50%
•   Marshall—30%-40%

Kobach

•   Kobach—40%-50%
•   Kobach—30%-40%

Hamilton

•   Hamilton—40%-50%
•   Hamilton—30%-40%

Republican primary results[57]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Roger Marshall	165,161	40.34%
	Republican	Kris Kobach	106,674	26.06%
	Republican	Bob Hamilton	76,684	18.73%
	Republican	Dave Lindstrom	27,030	6.60%
	Republican	Steve Roberts	7,946	1.94%
	Republican	Brian Matlock	6,942	1.7%
	Republican	Lance Berland	6,270	1.53%
	Republican	John Miller	4,344	1.06%
	Republican	Derek Ellis	3,873	0.95%
	Republican	Gabriel Robles	3,655	0.89%
	Republican	John Berman	840	0.21%
Total votes			409,419	100.0%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Barbara Bollier, physician and state senator[58]

Eliminated in primary

• Robert Tillman, Kansas National Guard veteran and perennial candidate[59][8]

Withdrawn

• Elliot Adams, database developer[60]
• Nancy Boyda, former U.S. Representative from Kansas's 2nd congressional district[16]
• Corbie Crow, certified public accountant[61]
• Barry Grissom, former United States Attorney for the District of Kansas (endorsed Bollier)[62]
• Usha Reddi, mayor of Manhattan[63][64]
• Adam Smith[59][65][8]

Declined

• Paul Davis, former minority leader of the Kansas House of Representatives and nominee for governor in 2014[23]
• Kathleen Sebelius, former Secretary of Health and Human Services, former Governor of Kansas, and former Kansas Insurance Commissioner[66]
• Sarah Smarsh, author[67]
• Josh Svaty, former Kansas Secretary of Agriculture, former state representative, and candidate for Governor of Kansas in 2018[68]
• Brent Welder, candidate for Kansas's 3rd congressional district in 2018[69]

Endorsements

Barbara Bollier

U.S. Senators Chuck Schumer, U.S. Senator (NY) and Senate Minority Leader[70] State Politicians Kathleen Sebelius, former Governor (2003-2009), former United States Secretary of Health and Human Services (2009-2014)[71] Former U.S. Executive Branch Officials Barry Grissom, former U.S. Attorney for Kansas (2010-2016)[72] State legislators Stacey Abrams, former Georgia House of Representatives Minority Leader (2011-2017) and Democratic nominee in 2018 Georgia gubernatorial election[73] Organizations DSCC[74] Emily's List[74] End Citizens United[75] Feminist Majority PAC[76] Giffords[77] Human Rights Campaign[78] League of Conservation Voters[79] Let America Vote[75] NARAL Pro-Choice America[80] Planned Parenthood[81] Sierra Club[82] Women's Political Committee[83]

Results

Primary results by county

Bollier

•   Bollier—90%-100%
•   Bollier—80%-90%
•   Bollier—70%-80%
•   Bollier—60%-70%
•   Bollier—50%-60%

Tillman

•   Tillman—50%-60%

Democratic primary results[57]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Barbara Bollier	166,146	85.46%
	Democratic	Robert Tillman	28,262	14.54%
Total votes			194,408	100.0%

Other candidates

Libertarian Party

Nominee

• Jason Buckley[8]

Independents

Withdrawn

• Paul Tuten[59][8]

General election

Endorsements

Roger Marshall (R)

Federal officials Bob Dole, 1996 Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. Senator from Kansas (1969–1996), former Senate Majority Leader (1985–1987, 1995–1996), 1976 Republican vice presidential nominee, former U.S. Representative (KS-06, 1961–1963; KS-01, 1963–1969)[49] Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the United States House of Representatives and former U.S. Representative (GA-06, 1979-1999)[50] Lindsey Graham, U.S. Senator (SC)[84] Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States[85] Organizations Family Policy Alliance of Kansas[51] Family Research Council (FRC) Action[52] Kansans for Life (KFL) PAC[41] Kansas Farm Bureau[53] Kansas Livestock Association[54] National Right to Life Committee[55] U.S. Chamber of Commerce[56]

Barbara Bollier (D)

U.S. Senators Cory Booker, U.S. Senator (NJ)[86] Kamala Harris, U.S. Senator (CA)[87] Chuck Schumer, U.S. Senator (NY) and Senate Minority Leader[70] State and local officials Stacey Abrams, former Georgia House of Representatives Minority Leader (2011-2017) and Democratic nominee in 2018 Georgia gubernatorial election[73] Pete Buttigieg, former Mayor of South Bend and 2020 presidential candidate[88] Kathleen Sebelius, former Governor of Kansas (2003-2009), former United States Secretary of Health and Human Services (2009-2014)[71] Laura Kelly, Governor of Kansas (2019-present)[89] Former U.S. Executive Branch Officials Barry Grissom, former U.S. Attorney for Kansas (2010-2016)[72] Organizations DSCC[74] Emily's List[74] End Citizens United[75] Feminist Majority PAC[76] Giffords[77] Human Rights Campaign[78] League of Conservation Voters[79] Let America Vote[75] NARAL Pro-Choice America[80] Planned Parenthood[81] Sierra Club[82] Women's Political Committee[83]

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[90]	Lean R	July 23, 2020
Inside Elections[91]	Lean R	July 10, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[92]	Likely R	August 5, 2020
Daily Kos[93]	Likely R	July 22, 2020
Politico[94]	Likely R	July 6, 2020
RCP[95]	Likely R	August 6, 2020
Niskanen[96]	Tossup	July 26, 2020
270towin[97]	Lean R	August 6, 2020

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Roger Marshall (R)	Barbara Bollier (D)	Other	Undecided
SurveyUSA	August 8–9, 2020	1,202 (LV)	± 3.3%	46%	44%	–	10%
Public Policy Polling[upper-alpha 4]	August 5–6, 2020	864 (V)	± 3.3%	43%	42%	–	15%
Civiqs/Daily Kos	May 30 – June 1, 2020	699 (RV)	± 4.2%	42%	41%	9%[lower-alpha 6]	8%
NMB Research/NRSC (R)[upper-alpha 1]	May 17–19, 2020	506 (LV)	± 4.5%	46%	35%	–	18%
Public Policy Polling	March 10–11, 2020	1,567 (V)	± 2.5%	47%	37%	–	–

Hypothetical polling

Bob Hamilton vs. Barbara Bollier Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 1] Margin of error Bob Hamilton (R) Barbara Bollier (D) Other Undecided Civiqs/Daily Kos May 30 – June 1, 2020 699 (RV) ± 4.2% 40% 41% 11%[lower-alpha 7] 8% Kris Kobach vs. Barbara Bollier Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 1] Margin of error Kris Kobach (R) Barbara Bollier (D) Other Undecided Civiqs/Daily Kos May 30 – June 1, 2020 699 (RV) ± 4.2% 41% 42% 11%[lower-alpha 8] 7% NMB Research/NRSC (R)[upper-alpha 3] May 17–19, 2020 506 (LV) ± 4.5% 44% 43% – 12% Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 5] April 13–14, 2020 1,271 (RV) ± 2.7% 42% 44% – 13% McLaughlin & Associates (R)[upper-alpha 2] February 12–13, 2020 300 (LV) ± 5.6% 47% 38% – 15% DFM Research[upper-alpha 6] January 30 – February 6, 2020 600 (A) ± 4.0% 43% 43% 4% 10% Kris Kobach vs. Barry Grissom Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 1] Margin of error Kris Kobach (R) Barry Grissom (D) Undecided Tarrance Group/NRSC (R)[upper-alpha 3] June 9–11, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4% 42%[lower-alpha 9] 52% – Generic Republican vs. Generic Democrat Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 1] Margin of error Generic Republican (R) Generic Democrat (D) Undecided Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 5] April 13–14, 2020 1,271 (RV) ± 2.7% 50% 40% 11% DFM Research/SMART Transportation Division[upper-alpha 6] January 30 – February 6, 2020 600 (A) ± 4.0% 39% 31% 30% Tarrance Group/NRSC (R)[upper-alpha 3] June 9–11, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 36% –

Results

United States Senate election in Kansas, 2020

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	Republican	Roger Marshall
	Democratic	Barbara Bollier
	Libertarian	Jason Buckley
Total votes				100.00%

Notes

1. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
2. "someone else" with 4%
3. "Someone else" with 9%
4. Hartman with 5%
5. Wagle with 4%; Hartman with 2%; Lindstrom with 1%
6. "Someone else" with 9%
7. "Someone else" with 11%
8. "Someone else" with 11%
9. Figures for other Republicans tested against Grissom in this poll have not been released, but all others led him by at least 8%

Partisan clients

1. Poll conducted for the Marshall campaign.
2. This poll was sponsored by Kris Kobach's campaign
3. This poll was conducted by the National Republican Senatorial Committee.
4. Poll for EMILY's List, a Democratic PAC which seeks to elect pro-choice Democratic women to office
5. Poll sponsored by 314 Action
6. The SMART Transportation Division is an AFL-CIO affiliated PAC promoting employee assistance programs for retired railroad, bus, and mass transit workers

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84. "It's been a good week for President @realDonaldTrump and the @GOP . ▶️ Big win for @BillHagertyTN in Tennessee who served as Ambassador to Japan under President Trump. ▶️ Big win by Congressman @RogerMarshallMD in Kansas, also supported by President Trump". Twitter.
85. "Big wins in Tennessee and Kansas! Congratulations to @BillHagertyTN and @RogerMarshallMD . They love our Country and they love their Great States. Strong on Crime, Military, our Vets and the Second Amendment. They have my Complete and Total Endorsement!". Twitter.
86. "We can do something historic in Kansas this year. @BarbaraBollier has a chance to become the first woman physician to ever serve in the Senate. She would also be Kansas' first Democratic U.S. Senator since the 1930s! Please help her win this race". Twitter.
87. "The GOP just nominated a pro-Trump Republican to take on Dr. @BarbaraBollier . Kansas could be one of the four states Democrats need to take back the Senate from Mitch McConnell. Can you chip in now to flip Kansas and send Barbara to Washington?". Twitter.
88. "Congratulations to @BarbaraBollier for winning the primary in Kansas tonight! We have the chance to elect her, and flip a Senate seat, in November but only if we work for it. Please chip in to join her team". Twitter.
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91. "2020 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved July 17, 2020.
92. "2020 Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved August 28, 2019.
93. "Daily Kos Elections releases initial Senate race ratings for 2020". Daily Kos Elections. Retrieved February 28, 2020.
94. "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
95. "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
96. "2020 Negative Partisanship and the 2020 Congressional Elections". Niskanen Center. April 28, 2020.
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External links

Official campaign websites

• Barbara Bollier (D) for Senate
• Jason Buckley (L) for Senate
• Roger Marshall (R) for Senate