2020 United States Senate election in Colorado
The 2020 United States Senate Election in Colorado will be held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Colorado, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
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Under Colorado law, the filing deadline for U.S. Senate candidates was March 17, 2020, the third Tuesday in March of the election year; the primary election occurred on June 30.[1][2] Incumbent Republican Senator Cory Gardner is running for reelection to a second term, and will face Democratic former Governor John Hickenlooper in the general election. Gardner was unopposed in the Republican primary, and Hickenlooper defeated former State House Speaker Andrew Romanoff in the Democratic primary. Gardner is one of two Republican U.S. Senators facing reelection in 2020 in a state President Donald Trump lost in 2016, the other being Susan Collins from Maine.[3]
Background
Cory Gardner was elected to the U.S. Senate in 2014, narrowly defeating incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Udall in a very successful election year for Republicans. Gardner is widely considered vulnerable in this election cycle due to Colorado's Democratic trend in recent cycles and his support for President Donald Trump.[4] The seat is expected to be highly competitive and is widely considered the most likely Republican-held seat to flip Democratic. The Democratic nominee, former governor John Hickenlooper, has a double-digit lead over Gardner in the polls.[5]
Various minor scandals in the days leading up to the June 30 Democratic primary sparked speculation that Romanoff might win, but Hickenlooper had an advantage in name recognition, and negative attacks by Romanoff reportedly led many state Democrats and voters to sour on him.[6]
Republican primary
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Candidates
Nominee
- Cory Gardner, incumbent U.S. Senator[7]
Endorsements
Cory Gardner |
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Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
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Republican | Cory Gardner (incumbent) | 548,859 | 100.00% | |
Total votes | 548,859 | 100.00% |
Democratic primary
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County results
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Candidates
Nominee
- John Hickenlooper, former Governor of Colorado and former candidate for President of the United States in 2020[16]
Eliminated in primary
- Andrew Romanoff, former Speaker of the Colorado House of Representatives, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2010, and nominee for Colorado's 6th congressional district in 2014[17][18]
Withdrawn
- Dan Baer, former executive director of the Colorado Department of Higher Education and former United States Ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe[19] (endorsed John Hickenlooper)
- Derrick Blanton[20]
- Marcos Boyington, software engineer[21]
- Diana Bray, psychologist and climate activist[22] (endorsed Andrew Romanoff)[23]
- Denise Burgess, businesswoman and Denver Metro Chamber of Commerce board member[24]
- Ellen Burnes, Colorado State University professor and former chair of the Boulder County Democratic Party[25]
- Lorena Garcia, community organizer[lower-alpha 1][26]
- David Goldfischer, associate professor at the Korbel School for International Studies at the University of Denver and national security advisor[27]
- Mike Johnston, former state senator and candidate for Governor of Colorado in 2018[28]
- Danielle Kombo, medical recruiter and businesswoman[29][30] (endorsed Stephany Rose Spaulding)
- Dustin Leitzel, pharmacist[31][32]
- Alice Madden, former majority leader of the Colorado House of Representatives[33]
- Christopher Hawkins Critter Milton, 2020 Unity Party nominee for Colorado's 3rd congressional district[34]
- Keith Pottratz, technician and veteran[35][36] (endorsed Lorena Garcia)
- Stephany Rose Spaulding, professor at University of Colorado Colorado Springs and nominee for Colorado's 5th congressional district in 2018[37] (endorsed Lorena Garcia)[38]
- Erik Underwood, entrepreneur and candidate for Governor of Colorado in 2018[39]
- John F. Walsh, former U.S. Attorney for the District of Colorado[40] (endorsed John Hickenlooper)
- Michelle Ferrigno Warren, nonprofit leader, immigration advocate, first time candidate[lower-alpha 2][41]
- Angela Williams, state senator (running for re-election)[42]
- Trish Zornio, biomedical scientist[17][43] (endorsed John Hickenlooper)
Declined
- Diana DeGette, incumbent U.S. Representative (running for re-election)[44]
- Kerry Donovan, state senator[45] (endorsed John Hickenlooper)
- Crisanta Duran, former speaker of the Colorado House of Representatives (ran for Colorado's 1st congressional district,[46] then withdrew)
- Stan Garnett, former Boulder County District Attorney[47]
- Jena Griswold, Colorado Secretary of State[48]
- Cary Kennedy, former Colorado State Treasurer[49]
- Joe Neguse, incumbent U.S. Representative for Colorado's 2nd congressional district (running for re-election)[17][50][51][52]
- Ed Perlmutter, incumbent U.S. Representative for Colorado's 7th congressional district[21] (endorsed John Hickenlooper)
- Joe Salazar, former state representative[49]
Debates
Host
network |
Date | Link(s) | Participants | |
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John
Hickenlooper |
Andrew
Romanoff | |||
9NEWS | June 9, 2020 | [53] | Present | Present |
CBS4
PBS 12 |
June 10, 2020 | [54][55] | Present | Present |
The Denver Post | June 16, 2020 | [56] | Present | Present |
Endorsements
John Hickenlooper |
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Andrew Romanoff |
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Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 3] |
Margin of error |
Jena Griswold |
John Hickenlooper |
Mike Johnston |
Andrew Romanoff |
Other / Undecided | |
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SurveyUSA/KUSA-TV/ColoradoPolitics | June 19–24, 2020 | 575 (LV) | ± 6.0% | – | 58% | – | 28% | 15% | |
Myers Research and Strategic Services[upper-alpha 1] | June 16–17, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | – | 51% | – | 39% | – | |
Unspecified polling firm[upper-alpha 1] | October 2019 | – (LV)[lower-alpha 4] | – | – | 68% | – | 19% | – | |
Johnston withdraws from the race | |||||||||
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 2] | August 28–29, 2019 | 509 (LV) | – | – | 60%[lower-alpha 5] | 3% | 9% | 27%[lower-alpha 6] | |
–[lower-alpha 7] | 66% | – | 17% | 17%[lower-alpha 8] | |||||
Hickenlooper announces his candidacy | |||||||||
Griswold announces that she will not run | |||||||||
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | July 25–28, 2019 | 600 (LV) | – | 6% | 61% | 10% | 8% | 15%[lower-alpha 9] | |
Public Policy Polling (D) | July 12–14, 2019 | 561 (LV) | – | 4% | 44% | 3% | 12% | 38%[lower-alpha 10] | |
Hypothetical polling | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Caucus
On March 7, 2020, the Colorado Democratic Party held a non-binding Senate primary preference poll at its caucus sites. Attendees could choose delegates to county and then state conventions. If a candidate received at least 30% of the delegates at the state convention they would be placed on the ballot. Some candidates were not listed because they instead chose to attempt to collect signatures to reach the ballot. Candidates needed 1,500 signatures from each congressional district. Hickenlooper and Underwood chose to do both. Romanoff collected the needed signatures as of March 8, 2020.[81][82]
Caucus results
Romanoff was the only candidate to get more than 30% in the initial precinct caucuses. Hickenlooper withdrew from the assembly process soon afterward, choosing to qualify for the ballot exclusively by petition. Ballot access for assembly candidates will be decided at the state assembly. Caucus winners do not always receive the party's nomination; Romanoff won them in the 2010 Democratic primary for Colorado's Senate race, but Michael Bennet won the party's nomination that year.[83]
The aggregate results of the various precinct caucuses on March 7, 2020, were:[84]
Candidate | Total Raw Votes | Percentage of Vote Won (%) |
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Andrew Romanoff | 8,629 | 54.98 |
John Hickenlooper | 4,761 | 30.34 |
Trish Zornio | 976 | 6.21 |
Stephany Rose Spaulding | 771 | 4.91 |
Uncommitted | 520 | 3.31 |
Erik Underwood | 35 | 0.22 |
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
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Democratic | John Hickenlooper | 585,826 | 58.65% | |
Democratic | Andrew Romanoff | 412,955 | 41.35% | |
Total votes | 998,781 | 100.00% |
Other candidates
Green Party
Nominee
- Bruce Lohmiller (as a write-in candidate)[86]
Libertarian primary
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Nominee
- Raymon Doane, Libertarian nominee for Colorado's 1st congressional district in 2018[87]
Eliminated in primary
- Gaylon Kent, author and perennial candidate[88]
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
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Libertarian | Raymon Doane | 3,477 | 62.41% | |
Libertarian | Gaylon Kent | 2,094 | 37.59% | |
Total votes | 5,571 | 100.00% |
Unity Party
Nominee
- Stephan "Chairman Seku" Evans, former candidate for Mayor of Denver[90]
Eliminated at Unity Party convention
- Joshua Rodriguez[91]
Others
Declared
- Dan Doyle (Approval Voting Party)[86]
- Michael Sanchez (Independent) (as a write-in candidate)[86]
- Danny Skelly, Small Business Owner (Independent) (as a write-in candidate)[86]
Withdrawn
- Veronique Bellamy, former candidate for RTD board (Socialist Party)[90][93][94]
- Joseph "Joey" Camp, performance artist (Independent)[95][90][86]
- Lisa Garcia (Independent)[96][86]
- Christopher K. Springer (Independent)[97][86]
- Donald George Willoughby (Independent)[97][86]
- Marti Wolf (Independent)[97]
General election
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[98] | Tossup | July 23, 2020 |
Inside Elections[99] | Tilt D (flip) | July 10, 2020 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[100] | Lean D (flip) | August 5, 2020 |
Daily Kos[101] | Lean D (flip) | July 22, 2020 |
Politico[102] | Tossup | July 6, 2020 |
RCP[103] | Tossup | August 6, 2020 |
Niskanen[104] | Likely D (flip) | July 26, 2020 |
270towin[105] | Lean D (flip) | August 6, 2020 |
Endorsements
Cory Gardner (R) |
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John Hickenlooper (D) |
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Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 3] |
Margin of error |
Cory Gardner (R) |
John Hickenlooper (D) |
Other / Undecided |
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Morning Consult | July 17–26, 2020 | 616 | ± 4.0% | 42% | 48% | 11% |
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 3] | June 29–30, 2020 | 840 | ± 3.4% | 40% | 51% | 9%[lower-alpha 11] |
Keating Research (D) | May 1–3, 2020 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 36% | 54% | 10%[lower-alpha 12] |
Montana State University Bozeman | April 10–19, 2020 | 379 | ± 4.4% | 31% | 48% | 21%[lower-alpha 13] |
Keating Research (D) | October 10–14, 2019 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 42% | 53% | 5% |
Emerson College | August 16–19, 2019 | 1,000 | ± 3.0% | 40% | 53% | 8% |
Global Strategy Group (D)[upper-alpha 4] | August 13–14, 2019 | 617 | ± 3.9% | 39% | 49% | 13% |
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 2] | August 8–11, 2019 | 739 | ± 3.6% | 38% | 51% | 12% |
Hypothetical polling | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Former candidates | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ± | |
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Republican | Cory Gardner (incumbent) | ||||
Democratic | John Hickenlooper | ||||
Libertarian | Raymon Doane | ||||
Unity | Stephen Evans | ||||
Approval Voting | Dan Doyle | ||||
Write-in | |||||
Total votes | 100.00% |
See also
Notes
- Partisan clients
- Poll sponsored by Romanoff's campaign
- Poll sponsored by 314 Action
- End Citizens United supports candidates who oppose the landmark Citizens United Supreme Court ruling
- Poll conducted for Mike Johnston
- Poll sponsored by ProgressNow Colorado
- Poll sponsored by Our Lives on the Line
- Poll sponsored by Save My Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organisation
- Voter samples
- A judge ruled that Lorena Garcia could appear on the ballot despite only getting 50% of the signatures needed to qualify, citing how signatures can't be collected due to COVID-19. The Colorado Supreme Court overruled the ruling after an appeal from Colorado's Secretary of State.
- A judge ruled that Michelle Ferrigno Warren could appear on the ballot despite only getting 50% of the signatures needed to qualify, citing how signatures can't be collected due to COVID-19. The Colorado Supreme Court overruled the ruling after an appeal from Colorado's Secretary of State.
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - Not yet released
- Standard VI response
- Undecided with 16%; Baer, Madden and Williams with 2%; Walsh with 1%; "someone else" with 4%
- With only Hickenlooper and Romanoff as candidates
- Undecided with 17%
- Undecided with 15%
- Undecided with 29%; Walsh with 4%; Williams with 3%; Baer and Madden with 1%
- Undecided with 9%
- Undecided with 9%; "Another candidate" with 1%
- "Don't know" with 17%; "other/none of the above" with 4%
- "Undecided" with 10%; "don't know/refused" with 4%
- Would not vote/would not vote for U.S. Senate with 2%
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- https://www.bendthearc.us/pac
- "J Street PAC proudly endorses Governor John Hickenlooper for Senate in Colorado". Hickenlooper for Colorado. June 18, 2020.
- "Meet the 2020 Candidates". Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs.
- "SIERRA CLUB ENDORSES JOHN HICKENLOOPER FOR US SENATE". Sierra Club. August 4, 2020.
External links
- Official campaign websites