2020 United States Senate election in Alaska

The 2020 United States Senate election in Alaska will be held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Alaska, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan is running for reelection to a second term in office.

2020 United States Senate election in Alaska
November 3, 2020
 
Nominee Dan Sullivan TBD
Party Republican Democratic
Incumbent U.S. senator

Dan Sullivan
Republican
Elections in Alaska

Both primaries will take place on August 18, 2020.[1]

Republican primary

Candidates

Presumptive nominee

Withdrawn

Endorsements
Dan Sullivan
U.S. federal officials

Primary results
Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Dan Sullivan (incumbent)
Total votes 100.0%

Libertarian-Democratic-Independence primary

Candidates from the Alaska Democratic Party, Alaska Libertarian Party and Alaskan Independence Party appear on the same ballot, with the highest-placed candidate from each party receiving that party's nomination. In October 2017, the Alaska Democratic Party sued for the right to allow non-Democrats to compete for and win the Democratic nomination, which was ultimately decided in their favor in April 2018.[6]

Democratic candidates

Declared

Disqualified from the ballot

Withdrawn
  • David Darden (Independent), nonpartisan candidate for Anchorage Assembly District 3 Seat E in the 2018 special election[4]

Alaskan Independence candidates

Declared
  • John Howe (Alaskan Independence), machinist[9]

Endorsements
Al Gross
Local officials
Individuals
  • Andrew Yang, Presidential Ambassador for Global Entrepreneurship (2015-17), 2020 Democratic Presidential candidate[11]
Organizations
Union

Primary results
Primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Edgar Blatchford
Independent Chris Cumings
Independent Al Gross
Alaskan Independence John Howe
Total votes 100.0%

Other candidates

Green Party

Nominee

Independents

Declared

Withdrawn
  • David Matheny, wildfire technician[27][28]

General election

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[29] Likely R July 23, 2020
Inside Elections[30] Likely R July 10, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[31] Likely R August 5, 2020
Daily Kos[32] Likely R July 22, 2020
Politico[33] Likely R July 6, 2020
RCP[34] Likely R August 6, 2020
Niskanen[35] Safe R July 26, 2020
270towin[36] Likely R August 6, 2020

Polling

with Al Gross

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Dan
Sullivan (R)		 Al
Gross (I)		 Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[upper-alpha 1] July 7–8, 2020 1,081 (V) ± 3.0% 39% 34% – 27%
Alaska Survey Research June 23 – July 7, 2020 663 (LV) ± 3.8% 53% 40% – 7%
Hypothetical polling
with Forrest Dunbar
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Dan
Sullivan (R)		 Forrest
Dunbar (D)		 Undecided
Patinkin Research Strategies May 28 – Jun 4, 2019 1,000 – 39% 39% 22%
with Forrest Dunbar as an independent
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Dan
Sullivan (R)		 Forrest
Dunbar (I)		 Undecided
Patinkin Research Strategies May 28 – June 4, 2019 1,000 – 42% 40% 19%

Results
United States Senate election in Alaska, 2020
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Republican Dan Sullivan (incumbent)
TBA TBA
Alaskan Independence John Howe
Green Jed Whittaker
Independent Sid Hill
Total votes 100.0%

Notes
  1. Payment of filing fee was not made prior to the deadline.
  2. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
Partisan clients
  1. Polling's funding was crowdsourced by Election Twitter.
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References
  1. http://www.elections.alaska.gov/Core/electioncalendar.php
  2. "SULLIVAN, DAN - Candidate overview". FEC.gov.
  3. McCue, Dan (May 1, 2020). "Center for Politics Adds Alaska to Senate Battleground Map". TheWell News. Retrieved May 15, 2020.
  4. "Alaska Division of Elections". www.elections.alaska.gov. June 5, 2020. Retrieved June 2, 2020.
  5. "President Trump endorses Sullivan re-election as US senator for Alaska". KTUU. December 18, 2019. Retrieved December 30, 2019.
  6. Hertz, Nathaniel (April 4, 2018). "Independents can run in party primaries, Alaska Supreme Court says, opening door for Gov. Walker". Anchorage Daily News.
  7. "Gross announces candidacy for Alaska US Senate seat". Associated Press. June 2, 2019.
  8. "Alaska - Senate". FEC. Retrieved May 17, 2020.
  9. "John Wayne Howe, Alaskan Independence Party, runs for U.S. Senate". KTVF News. July 6, 2020.
  10. https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/7/10/1959687/-AK-Sen-Pete-Buttigieg-Jumps-In-To-Help-Dr-Al-Gross-I-Take-Away-Moscow-Mitch-s-Majority. Missing or empty |title= (help)
  11. https://movehumanityforward.com/endorsements/
  12. "Endorsed Candidates — 314actionfund". 314 Action. Retrieved 27 November 2019.
  13. https://akcenter.org/elections/endorsed-candidates/
  14. Quinn, Steve (October 11, 2019). "Alaska Democratic Party backs Gross for US Senate". KTVA. Retrieved October 14, 2019.
  15. "DUH/PEP website". duh4all.org.
  16. "DSCC Endorses Dr. Al Gross in Alaska Senate Race". DSCC. December 3, 2019.
  17. Muller, Tiffany (January 21, 2020). "End Citizens United Endorses 39 Candidates 10 Years After Citizens United Decision". End Citizens United.
  18. https://movehumanityforward.com/endorsements/
  19. J Street Endorsements https://donate.jstreetpac.org/candidate/al-gross-ak-sen/. Retrieved August 6, 2020. Missing or empty |title= (help)
  20. https://jewishdems.org/2020-endorsements/
  21. https://www.aaos.org/aaosnow/2019/oct/advocacy/advocacy02/
  22. "2020 Endorsements". www.plannedparenthoodaction.org.
  23. https://lincolnproject.us/news/real/
  24. https://cwa-union.org/news/releases/communications-workers-of-america-endorses-al-gross-ak-for-us-senate
  25. "ALASKA". Politics1. Retrieved May 17, 2020.
  26. "November 3, 2020 General Election Candidate List". www.elections.alaska.gov. June 1, 2020. Retrieved June 2, 2020.
  27. Downing, Suzanne (May 11, 2019). "Sen. Sullivan has his first challenger: a Bernie supporter". Must Read Alaska. Retrieved May 15, 2020.
  28. "IDENTIFICATION NUMBER: C00705293" (PDF). FEC. May 29, 2019. Retrieved June 2, 2020.
  29. "2020 Senate Race Ratings for April 19, 2019". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2019.
  30. "2020 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved July 17, 2020.
  31. "2020 Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved August 28, 2019.
  32. "Daily Kos Elections releases initial Senate race ratings for 2020". Daily Kos Elections. Retrieved February 28, 2020.
  33. "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  34. "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  35. "2020 Negative Partisanship and the 2020 Congressional Elections". Niskanen Center. April 28, 2020.
  36. "2020 Senate Map Based on Polls". 270towin.com. August 6, 2020. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
Official campaign websites
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