2020 United States presidential election in Hawaii

The 2020 United States presidential election in Hawaii is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate.[1] Hawaii voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Hawaii has 4 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]

Main article: 2020 United States presidential election
2020 United States presidential election in Hawaii
November 3, 2020
Turnout%
 
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida Delaware
Running mate Mike Pence Kamala Harris
Incumbent President

Donald Trump
Republican
Elections in Hawaii

By the time that the primary elections were held in Hawaii in late May 2020, incumbent President Donald Trump was already the Republican Party's presumptive nominee, being the only viable declared major candidate left. On the Democratic Party's side, Vice President Joe Biden became the presumptive nominee after Senator Bernie Sanders, his last competitor, withdrew on April 8, 2020. Tulsi Gabbard, the U.S. Representative for Hawaii's 2nd congressional district, was also in the race but suspended her campaign in March 2020.

Primary elections

Canceled Republican primary
Further information: 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries § Cancellation of state caucuses or primaries

On December 11, 2019, the Hawaii Republican Party became one of several state GOP parties to officially cancel their respective primaries and caucuses.[3] Donald Trump's re-election campaign and GOP officials have cited the fact that Republicans canceled several state primaries when George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush sought a second term in 1992 and 2004, respectively; and Democrats scrapped some of their primaries when Bill Clinton and Barack Obama were seeking reelection in 1996 and 2012, respectively.[4][5] Because this was the first of the cancelled Republican state races to directly bind its delegates to the national convention (as opposed to a walking subcaucus-type system), Trump automatically was awarded his first 19 pledged delegates of the nomination campaign.[3][6]

Democratic primary

The Hawaii Democratic primary was originally scheduled for April 4, 2020. On March 20, due to concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic, the Hawaii Democratic Party canceled in-person voting in favor of mail-in voting.[7] The deadline was then extended to May 22.[8]

This section is an excerpt from 2020 Hawaii Democratic presidential primary § Results[edit]

The primary was conducted by ranked-choice voting. Voters were instructed to mark their top three choices on paper ballots. Any voter with a first choice other than Biden or Sanders had their ballot count in the final round if ranking one of those candidates as a second or third choice.

2020 Hawaii Democratic presidential primary[9]
Candidate First
result		 % Final
result		 % Delegates
Joe Biden 19,593 56.0% 21,215 63.23% 16
Bernie Sanders (Suspends campaign) 10,777 30.8% 12,337 36.77% 8
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn) 1,689 4.8%
Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn) 1,377 3.9%
Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn) 460 1.3%
Andrew Yang (withdrawn) 340 1.0
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn) 311 0.9
Uncommitted 291 0.8
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn) 93 0.3
Tom Steyer (withdrawn) 34 0.1
Deval Patrick (withdrawn) 11 0.0
Total 34,976 100% 33,552 100% 24

The ballots were counted separately in each of Hawaii's two Congressional districts.[10]

Vote count by round for District HI-1[10]
Candidate Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 4 Round 5 Round 6 Round 7 Round 8 Round 9 Round 10
Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes %
Joe Biden 8,585 58.90% 8,586 58.90% 8,588 58.90% 8,601 59.00% 8,612 59.40% 8,686 60.00% 8,729 60.40% 8,885 61.80% 8,991 63.50% 9,315 66.40%
Bernie Sanders suspended 4,054 27.80% 4,055 27.80% 4,057 27.80% 4,061 27.90% 4,066 28.00% 4,086 28.20% 4,141 28.70% 4,174 29.00% 4,322 30.50% 4,716 33.60%
Elizabeth Warren suspended 738 5.06% 738 5.06% 740 5.08% 746 5.12% 747 5.15% 769 5.31% 813 5.63% 832 5.79% 853 6.02% Eliminated
Tulsi Gabbard suspended 446 3.06% 446 3.06% 446 3.06% 447 3.07% 449 3.10% 456 3.15% 475 3.29% 485 3.37% Eliminated
Michael Bloomberg suspended 262 1.80% 262 1.80% 266 1.82% 267 1.83% 270 1.86% 278 1.92% 286 1.98% Eliminated
Andrew Yang suspended 186 1.28% 187 1.28% 191 1.31% 192 1.32% 193 1.33% 206 1.42% Eliminated
Pete Buttigieg suspended 153 1.05% 153 1.05% 153 1.05% 159 1.09% 159 1.10% Eliminated
Uncommitted 106 0.73% 106 0.73% 106 0.73% 106 0.73% Eliminated
Amy Klobuchar suspended 34 0.23% 34 0.23% 34 0.23% Eliminated
Tom Steyer suspended 15 0.10% 15 0.10% Eliminated
Deval Patrick suspended 4 0.03% Eliminated
Total 14,583 100% 14,582 100% 14,581 100% 14,579 100% 14,496 100% 14,481 100% 14,444 100% 14,376 100% 14,166 100% 14,031 100%
Vote count by round for District HI-2[10]
Candidate Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 4 Round 5 Round 6 Round 7 Round 8 Round 9 Round 10
Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes %
Joe Biden 11,008 54.00% 11,010 54.00% 11,015 54.00% 11,028 54.10% 11,058 54.30% 11,137 54.80% 11,150 55.30% 11,247 55.90% 11,459 58.20% 11,900 61.00%
Bernie Sanders suspended 6,723 33.00% 6,724 33.00% 6,729 33.00% 6,730 33.00% 6,773 33.20% 6,798 33.40% 6,808 33.70% 6,837 34.00% 7,138 36.20% 7,621 39.00%
Elizabeth Warren suspended 951 4.66% 952 4.67% 955 4.68% 974 4.78% 997 4.89% 1,024 5.03% 1,028 5.09% 1,040 5.17% 1,098 5.58% Eliminated
Tulsi Gabbard suspended 931 4.57% 931 4.57% 931 4.57% 937 4.60% 962 4.72% 971 4.77% 973 4.82% 990 4.92% Eliminated
Michael Bloomberg suspended 198 0.97% 198 0.97% 201 0.99% 203 1.00% 205 1.01% 217 1.07% 219 1.09% Eliminated
Uncommitted 185 0.91% 185 0.91% 186 0.91% 186 0.91% 191 0.94% 192 0.94% Eliminated
Pete Buttigieg suspended 158 0.77% 159 0.78% 159 0.78% 170 0.83% 186 0.91% Eliminated
Andrew Yang suspended 154 0.76% 155 0.76% 155 0.76% 159 0.78% Eliminated
Amy Klobuchar suspended 59 0.29% 60 0.29% 61 0.30% Eliminated
Tom Steyer suspended 19 0.09% 19 0.09% Eliminated
Deval Patrick suspended 7 0.03% Eliminated
Total 20,393 100% 20,393 100% 20,392 100% 20,387 100% 20,372 100% 20,339 100% 20,178 100% 20,114 100% 19,695 100% 19,521 100%

Green primary
Green Party of Hawaii presidential primary, May 23, 2020[11]
Candidate Percentage National delegates
Dario Hunter 41.6% 2
Howie Hawkins 33.3% 2
Kent Mesplay 8.3% 0
Dennis Lambert 8.3% 0
Chad Wilson 8.3% 0
Susan Buchser-Lochocki 0% 0
Sedinam Moyowasifza-Curry 0% 0
David Rolde 0% 0
No Preference 0% 0
Total 100.00% 4

General election

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[12] Safe D July 23, 2020
Inside Elections[13] Safe D July 17, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[14] Safe D July 14, 2020
Politico[15] Safe D July 6, 2020
RCP[16] Safe D August 3, 2020
Niskanen[17] Safe D March 24, 2020
CNN[18] Safe D August 3, 2020
The Economist[19] Safe D August 7, 2020
CBS News[20] Likely D August 9, 2020
270towin[21] Safe D August 2, 2020
ABC News[22] Safe D July 31, 2020
NPR[23] Likely D August 3, 2020
NBC News[24] Safe D August 6, 2020

Polling

with Donald Trump and Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Joe
Biden (D)		 Other Undecided
MRG Research Jul 27–30, 2020 975 (RV) ± 3.1% 29% 56% 6% 10%
gollark: I should move my electric fan™ to a bedroom™.
gollark: That sounds prone to problems.
gollark: no.
gollark: I am NOT doing "Look for a term" or something, that would be NATURAL LANGUAGE PARSING which is highly no.
gollark: How would YOU design the interface? I *guess* I could run argparse over it.

See also

Notes
  1. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
Partisan clients

    References
    1. Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
    2. "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
    3. "Hawaii GOP cancels presidential preference poll, commits delegates to Trump". The Hill. December 12, 2019. Retrieved December 12, 2019.
    4. Karni, Annie (September 6, 2019). "GOP plans to drop presidential primaries in 4 states to impede Trump challengers". Boston Globe. MSN. Retrieved September 7, 2019.
    5. Steakin, Will; Karson, Kendall (September 6, 2019). "GOP considers canceling at least 3 GOP primaries and caucuses, Trump challengers outraged". ABC News. Retrieved September 7, 2019.
    6. "Hawaii Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved February 20, 2020.
    7. "Hawaii Democrats scrap in-person voting plan for primary". Associated Press. March 20, 2020.
    8. "Party-run Presidential Primary UPDATE". Democratic Party of Hawaii. March 27, 2020. Retrieved March 27, 2020.
    9. "Hawaii Primary Election Results 2020". New York Times. Retrieved May 24, 2020.
    10. "Ranked-Choice Results" (PDF). Democratic Party of Hawai'i. Retrieved June 6, 2020.
    11. "Green Party of Hawai'i Presidential Preference Poll Results". OPAVOTE. Green Party of Hawaii. Retrieved 26 May 2020.
    12. "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
    13. "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
    14. "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
    15. "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
    16. "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
    17. 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
    18. David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved 2020-06-16.
    19. "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved 7 July 2020.
    20. "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
    21. "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
    22. "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
    23. "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved 2020-08-03.
    24. "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved 2020-08-06.
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