2020 United States Senate election in Michigan
The 2020 United States Senate election in Michigan will be held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent Michigan. It will be held concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
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Incumbent Gary Peters is one of two Democratic U.S. Senators up for reelection in 2020 in a state President Donald Trump carried in 2016; the other is Doug Jones from Alabama.[1] The primary was held on August 4.[2] The filing deadline for candidates to run in the primary was April 21[3] but was extended to May 8 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.[4]
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Gary Peters, incumbent U.S. Senator[5][6]
Declined
- Abdul El-Sayed, former executive director of the Detroit Department of Health and Wellness Promotion and candidate for Governor of Michigan in 2018[7]
Endorsements
Gary Peters |
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|
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Gary Peters (Incumbent) | 1,177,175 | 100.00% | |
Total votes | 1,177,175 | 100.00% |
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- John E. James, businessman, Iraq War veteran, nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2018[29]
Disqualified
- Bob Carr, historic preservationist, businessman, perennial candidate[30][31]
- Valerie Willis, write-in candidate in the 2018 United States Senate election in Michigan[32][31] (switched to U.S. Taxpayers candidacy)[33]
Declined
- Tom Leonard, former Speaker of the Michigan House of Representatives and nominee for Michigan Attorney General in 2018[34]
- Candice Miller, Macomb County Public Works Commissioner and former U.S. Representative for Michigan's 10th congressional district[35]
- Sandy Pensler, businessman and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018[34]
- Bill Schuette, former Michigan Attorney General and nominee for Governor of Michigan in 2018[36] (endorsed John James)[37]
- Rick Snyder, former Governor of Michigan[38]
Polling
Hypothetical polling | ||||||||||||||
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Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | John James | 1,002,235 | 100.00% | |
Total votes | 1,002,235 | 100.00% |
Other candidates
Communist Party
- Frank Seldon Cupps (as a write-in candidate)[40]
Green Party
Nominee
- Marcia Squier[41]
Natural Law Party
Nominee
- Doug Dern[33]
U.S. Taxpayers Party
Nominee
- Valerie L. Willis (switched from Republican candidacy after being disqualified for the Republican primary)[33]
Independents
General election
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[42] | Lean D | July 23, 2020 |
Inside Elections[43] | Lean D | July 10, 2020 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[44] | Lean D | August 5, 2020 |
Daily Kos[45] | Lean D | July 22, 2020 |
Politico[46] | Lean D | July 6, 2020 |
RCP[47] | Tossup | August 6, 2020 |
Niskanen[48] | Safe D | July 26, 2020 |
270towin[49] | Likely D | August 6, 2020 |
Endorsements
John James (R) |
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|
Polling
Aggregate polls
John James vs. Gary Peters | ||||||
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Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Gary Peters | John James | Other/Undecided[lower-alpha 3] | Margin |
Real Clear Politics | July 18, 2020 – July 26, 2020 | July 30, 2020 | 48.0% | 38.6% | Peters +9.4 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Gary Peters (D) |
John James (R) |
Other/Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tarrance Group (R) | August 10–13, 2020 | 602 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 49% | 44% | 7% |
Change Research/CNBC | August 7–9, 2020 | 413 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 48% | 45% | 7% |
EPIC-MRA | July 25–30, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 40% | 10% |
Public Policy Polling (D) | July 28–29, 2020 | 876 (V) | ± 3.2% | 47% | 39% | 13% |
Change Research/CNBC | July 24–26, 2020 | 413 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 48% | 44% | 8% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | July 19–23, 2020 | 811 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 52% | 35% | 13% |
Morning Consult | July 17–26, 2020 | 1,320 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 35% | 16% |
CNN/SSRS | July 18–24, 2020 | 927 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 54% | 38% | 8% |
Gravis Marketing | July 22, 2020 | 754 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 49% | 39% | 11% |
Marketing Resource Group (R) | July 19–21, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 34% | 25% |
FOX News | July 18–20, 2020 | 756 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 38% | 15% |
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) (Hyperpartisan)[67] | July 13–16, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 40% | 9% |
Spry Strategies (R) | July 11–16, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 47% | 37% | 15% |
Change Research/CNBC | July 10–12, 2020 | 824 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 50% | 43% | 6%[lower-alpha 4] |
Public Policy Polling (D) | July 9–10, 2020 | 1,041 (V) | ± 3.2% | 49% | 42% | 9% |
Change Research/CNBC | June 26–28, 2020 | 699 (LV)[lower-alpha 5] | ± 3.9% | 49% | 42% | 9%[lower-alpha 6] |
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 1] | June 26–27, 2020 | 1,237 (V) | ± 3.2% | 47% | 39% | 14%[lower-alpha 7] |
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) (Hyperpartisan)[68][69][98][100] | June 17–20, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 38% | 14%[lower-alpha 8] |
NYT Upshot/Siena College | June 8–17, 2020 | 610 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 41% | 31% | 29%[lower-alpha 9] |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | June 14–16, 2020 | 826 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 50% | 32% | 18%[lower-alpha 10] |
Marketing Resource Group (R) | June 12–15, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 36% | 30% | 33%[lower-alpha 11] |
American Greatness/TIPP (R) | June 9–12, 2020 | 907 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 47% | 35% | 17%[lower-alpha 12] |
Kiaer Research | May 31 – June 7, 2020 | 543 (LV) | ± 6.4% | 48% | 32% | 20%[lower-alpha 13] |
EPIC-MRA | May 30 – June 3, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 36% | 13%[lower-alpha 14] |
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 2] | May 29–30, 2020 | 1,582 (V) | ± 2.5% | 48% | 39% | 13%[lower-alpha 15] |
Change Research/Crooked Media | May 11–17, 2020 | 3,070 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 48% | 43% | 9% |
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) (Hyperpartisan) [69][70][99][101][96] | May 1–5, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 36% | 17% |
Public Policy Polling (D) | April 28–29, 2020 | 1,270 (V) | ± 3.2% | 46% | 37% | 17% |
FOX News | April 18–21, 2020 | 801 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 36% | 13% |
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) (Hyperpartisan)[70] | April 9–18, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 37% | 17% |
Public Policy Polling (D) | March 31 – April 1, 2020 | 1,019 (V) | ± 3.1% | 45% | 38% | 17% |
Spry Strategies (R) | March 30 – April 1, 2020 | 602 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 40% | 18% |
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) (Hyperpartisan)[71][72][101][103][98] | March 12–21, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 39% | 13% |
Marketing Resource Group (R) | March 16–20, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 35% | 13% |
Firehouse/0ptimus | March 5–7, 2020 | 550 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 40% | 41% | 11% |
Quinnipiac University | February 12–18, 2020 | 845 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 45% | 39% | 15% |
Baldwin Wallace University | January 8–20, 2020 | 1,023 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 42% | 32% | 26% |
Glengariff Group | January 3–7, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 40% | 16% |
Restoration PAC (R) (Hyperpartisan)[72][73][102][104][99] | November 24–26, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 44% | 12% |
Emerson College | October 31 – November 3, 2019 | 1,051 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 40% | 14% |
Hodas & Associates Restoration PAC (R) (Hyperpartisan)[73] | October 10-16, 2019[lower-alpha 16] | 600 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 35% | 17% |
Marketing Resource Group (R) | October 7–10, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 40% | 17% |
Target-Insyght/MIRS News | September 24–26, 2019 | 804 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 53% | 37% | 10% |
Denno Research/Vanguard PA/PSC (D) | September 21–24, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 39% | 21% |
Target Insyght | April 22–25, 2019 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 36% | 14% |
Emerson College | March 7–10, 2019 | 743 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 44% | 43% | 14% |
Hypothetical polling | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The following poll assumes neither Republican candidate would withdraw after their primary.
|
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ± | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Gary Peters (incumbent) | ||||
Republican | John James | ||||
Green | Marcia Squier | ||||
Natural Law | Doug Dern | ||||
U.S. Taxpayers | Valerie Willis | ||||
Communist | Frank Cupps (write-in) | ||||
Total votes | 100.00% |
Notes
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - Sample size estimated by multiplying the total sample size with the percentage of it that identifies as Republican
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- Undecided with 5%; would not vote with 1%
- Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
- Undecided with 7%; "would not vote" with 2%
- Undecided with 10%; "would not vote" with 4%
- Undecided with 12%; "Refused" with 2%
- Undecided with 24%; would not vote with 4%; "Another candidate" with 1%
- Undecided with 15%; "Third party/write-in" with 3%
- Undecided with 18.2%; "Someone else" with 13.7%; Would not vote with 1.5%
- Not sure with 13%; "Other" with 4%; "prefer not to answer" with 0%
- Undecided with 17%; "A different candidate" with 3%
- Includes "refused"
- "Third party" with 3%; Undecided with 10%
- Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
- The survey indicates the candidate is called 'Bob Barr', but this is assumed to be an error.
- "It is time for someone new" with 30.3% as opposed to "Peters deserves to be re-elected"
- Undecided with 15%; "Refused" with 1%
- Includes "Independent"
- Includes "Independent"
- Includes "Independent"
- Partisan clients
- Progress Michigan is a non-profit that primarily supports Democratic candidates
- Progress Michigan is a non-profit that primarily supports Democratic candidates
References
- Pathé, Simone; Pathé, Simone (January 31, 2019). "Trump won Michigan in 2016. Does that matter for Gary Peters in 2020?" – via www.rollcall.com.
- "United States Senate election in Michigan, 2020 (August 4 Democratic primary)". ballotpedia.org. Retrieved January 13, 2020.
- "Filing documents" (PDF). www.michigan.gov. Retrieved 2020-07-21.
- "Webpage update" (PDF). www.michigan.gov. Retrieved 2020-07-21.
- Carlson, Kate (February 18, 2019). "Peters, Upton slam Trump's emergency declaration". Holland Sentinel. Retrieved April 15, 2019.
- @GaryPeters (January 3, 2020). "Incumbent Senator Gary Peters files for re-election" (Tweet). Retrieved January 3, 2019 – via Twitter.
- Dovere, Edward-Isaac (November 18, 2018). "How the Democrats Took Back Michigan". The Atlantic. Retrieved November 26, 2018.
- Brady-Enerson, Mary (February 10, 2020). "Clean Water Action Endorses Gary Peters for US Senate". Clean Water Action.
- "Senate Candidates - Council for a Livable World". Council for a Livable World.
- Muller, Tiffany (August 27, 2019). "End Citizens United Endorses Four U.S. Senators for Reelection". End Citizens United.
- "2020 – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org.
- "Giffords Endorses Slate of Senators Running to Bring a Gun Safety Majority to the US Senate". Giffords. May 8, 2020.
- Acosta, Lucas (January 23, 2020). "HRC Announces Senate Endorsements in Effort to Achieve Pro-Equality Majority". Human Rights Campaign.
- Society, Humane. "2020 Endorsements". Humane Society Legislative Fund.
- Burke, Holly (February 25, 2019). "LCV Action Fund Endorses Senator Gary Peters for Re-Election". League of Conservation Voters. Retrieved March 16, 2019.
- "MDJC ENDORSES GARY PERERS FOR REELECTION". mijewishdems.
- "MEA announces initial federal candidate recommendations". Michigan Education Association. February 10, 2020.
- "Elections". Michigan Realtors.
- "2020 Federal Endorsements - NOW PAC". nowpac.org.
- "PeaceVoter 2020 Endorsements". Peace Action.
- Axelrod, Tal (October 10, 2019). "Planned Parenthood issues first wave of 2020 House, Senate endorsements". TheHill.
- "NARAL Pro-Choice America Endorses Gary Peters for U.S. Senate - NARAL Pro-Choice America". NARAL Pro-Choice America. June 17, 2019.
- "2020 Endorsements". Population Connection.
- "PROGRESSIVE WOMEN'S ALLIANCE | Endorsements". prowomall.
- "Sierra Club #ClimateVoter Guide: Endorsements". Sierra Club.
- "Candidates". VoteVets.org.
- "Endorsements - Voter Protection Project". Voter Protection Project.
- "2020 Michigan Election Results". Michigan Secretary of State.
- Eggert, David (June 6, 2019). "James announces Senate run against Sen. Peters in Michigan". Associated Press. Retrieved June 6, 2019.
- "Carr, Bob |FEC-Candidate Overview". FEC. Retrieved 2019-05-28.
- "2020 Michigan Official Primary Candidate Listing - 08/04/2020". miboecfr.nictusa.com.
- "Michigan 2020 Senate Race". Open Secrets. Retrieved May 15, 2020.
- "SOS - Elections". www.michigan.gov. August 7, 2020. Retrieved August 16, 2020.
- Pathé, Simone (January 31, 2019). "Trump won Michigan in 2016. Does that matter for Gary Peters in 2020?". Roll Call. Retrieved February 1, 2019.
- Burke, Melissa Nann (January 29, 2019). "Poll: Peters starts re-election campaign with low name identification". The Detroit News. Retrieved January 30, 2019.
- "Bill Schuette opts against Michigan Supreme Court run". www.bridgemi.com. October 2, 2019.
- Schuette, Bill (2019-06-06). "Big announcement by John James! John James will be a great US senator. Onward!". @schuetteonduty. Retrieved 2019-06-06.
- Sahil Kapur (November 20, 2018). "Outgoing Michigan Governor Snyder Rules Out Senate Run in 2020". Bloomberg Government. Retrieved November 20, 2018.
- Fleming, Leonard N. (June 10, 2019). "GOP chief McDaniel: Michigan winnable for Trump". The Detroit News. Retrieved June 10, 2019.
- "Filing Requirements: Office of U.S. Senator" (PDF). Michigan Secretary of State. Retrieved June 6, 2020.
- https://miboecfr.nictusa.com/election/candlist/2020GEN_CANDLIST.html
- "2020 Senate Race Ratings for April 19, 2019". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2019.
- "2020 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved July 17, 2020.
- "2020 Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved August 28, 2019.
- "Daily Kos Elections releases initial Senate race ratings for 2020". Daily Kos Elections. Retrieved February 28, 2020.
- "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
- "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
- "2020 Negative Partisanship and the 2020 Congressional Elections". Niskanen Center. April 28, 2020.
- "2020 Senate Map Based on Polls". 270towin.com. August 6, 2020. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
- https://berniesanders.com/get-involved/
- "MI-Sen: Elizabeth Warren (D. MA) Helps Gary Peters (D) Defeat Trump's Handpicked GOPer". Daily Kos. August 11, 2019.
- "Congressional Black Caucus PAC Endorses Senator Gary Peters for Reelection in Michigan | Broadcast-everywhere.net".
- "Everytown For Gun Safety Action Fund Endorses Gary Peters for U.S. Senate In Michigan". Everytown. June 9, 2020.
- "Endorsements - Fems for Dems".
- "Meet the 2020 Candidates". Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs.
- "2020 PACE Endorsements". NASW.
- "OUR CANDIDATES- National Committee for an Effective Congress".
- "Candidates We Endorse and Support". NCPSSM.
- "U.S. Senate - Education Votes". educationvotes.nea.org.
- "Endorsements". Progressive Turnout Project.
- "2020 Endorsements". Council 25.
- "2020 Endorsements - AFT Michigan".
- "Republican Senate candidate John James ignores Michigan but galavants around the U.S. for super-conservative endorsements & cash | Eclectablog". www.eclectablog.com. May 5, 2020.
- "FRC Action PAC". www.frcaction.org.
- Jones, Sam. "U.S., Michigan chambers back James in Michigan Senate race". Detroit News.
- "ICYMI: Michigan Farmers Back John James". John James for U.S. Senate. June 12, 2020.
- https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2020/07/john-james-michigan-outraises-dem/
- Shtrakhman, Mark (May 7, 2018). "Restoration PAC".
- Donahue, Allison (January 22, 2020). "Report: Big bucks already spent on ads for 2020 candidates in Michigan ⋆ Michigan Advance".
- "Restoration PAC Releases NEW John James Ad". March 28, 2020.
- Mauger, Craig. "GOP group already spending nearly $1 million against Peters in U.S. Senate race". Detroit News.
- "Partisan attack websites, independent groups enter Michigan Senate race". mlive. November 7, 2019.
- "Complaint alleges Peters solicited campaign ads from dark money group". mlive. December 10, 2019.
External links
- Official campaign websites