2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Iowa

The 2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Iowa will be held on November 3, 2020, to elect the four U.S. Representatives from the state of Iowa, one from each of the state's four congressional districts. The elections will coincide with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections.

2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Iowa

November 3, 2020

All 4 Iowa seats to the United States House of Representatives
 
Party Democratic Republican
Last election 3 1

District 1

The 1st district is based in northeastern Iowa, and includes the cities of Dubuque, Cedar Rapids and Waterloo. The incumbent is Democrat Abby Finkenauer, who flipped the district and was elected with 51.0% of the vote in 2018.[1]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Endorsements

Abby Finkenauer
Former US Executive Branch Officials
  • Barack Obama, former President of the United States (2009-2017, former Senator from Illinois (2005-2008)[3]
Organizations

Results

Democratic primary results[11]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Abby Finkenauer (incumbent) 72,474 99.3
N/A Write-in 482 0.7
Total votes 72,956 100.0%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee
Defeated in primary
  • Thomas Hansen, farmer and businessman[13]
Declined

Endorsements

Ashley Hinson
State and local Politicians
Organizations

Results

Republican primary results [18]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Ashley Hinson 38,552 77.8
Republican Thomas Hansen 10,845 21.9
N/A Write-in 152 0.3
Total votes 49,549 100.0%

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[19] Tossup July 16, 2020
Inside Elections[20] Tilt D July 24, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[21] Tossup July 23, 2020
Politico[22] Tossup July 6, 2020
Daily Kos[23] Lean D July 21, 2020
RCP[24] Tossup June 9, 2020
Niskanen[25] Lean D July 26, 2020

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Abby
Finkenauer (D)
Ashley
Hinson (R)
Other/Undecided
Monmouth University July 25 – August 3, 2020 391 ± 5.0% 51% 41% 9%[lower-alpha 2]
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[upper-alpha 1] March 3–5, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 44%
Harper Polling (R)[upper-alpha 2] January 11–12, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.0% 44%[lower-alpha 3] 40% 15%
40%[lower-alpha 4] 48%
Hypothetical polling
Generic Democrat vs Generic Republican
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Generic
Democrat
Generic
Republican
Undecided
Selzer and Co./Des Moines Register June 7–10, 2020 – (LV)[lower-alpha 5] <= ± 7.7% 48% 42%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[upper-alpha 3] March 3–5, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4% 37% 44%
Selzer and Co./Des Moines Register March 2–5, 2020 – (LV)[lower-alpha 6] 46% 49%
Harper Polling (R)[upper-alpha 4] January 11–12, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4% 43%[lower-alpha 7] 44%

Results

Iowa's 1st congressional district, 2020
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Abby Finkenauer (incumbent)
Republican Ashley Hinson
Total votes 100.0

District 2

The 2nd district encompasses southeastern Iowa, and is home to the cities of Davenport, Iowa City, Muscatine, Clinton, Burlington, Ottumwa, Fort Madison, Oskaloosa, Bettendorf, Newton and Pella. The incumbent is Democrat Dave Loebsack, who was re-elected with 54.8% of the vote in 2018;[1] he subsequently announced he would not seek re-election on April 12, 2019.[26]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee
  • Rita Hart, former state senator and nominee for Lieutenant Governor of Iowa in 2018[27]
Withdrawn
  • Newman Abuissa, engineer[28]
Declined

Endorsements

Rita Hart
Former US Executive Branch Officials
  • Barack Obama, former President of the United States (2009-2017, former Senator from Illinois (2005-2008)[3]
Federal politicians
Statewide politicians
State Senators
  • Joe Bolkcom, State Senator, District 43
  • Chris Brase, former State Senator, District 46
  • Tom Courtney, former State Senator, District 44
  • Bob Dvorsky, former State Senator, District 37
  • Kevin Kinney, State Senator, District 39
  • Jim Lykam, State Senator, District 45
  • Rich Taylor, State Senator, District 42
  • Zach Wahls, State Senator, District 37
State Representatives
Local politicians
Party officials

[41]

Individuals
  • Veronica Tessler, businesswoman[42]
Organizations

Results

Democratic primary results[48]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Rita Hart 67,023 99.6
N/A Write-ins 268 0.4
Total votes 67,291 100.0%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee
Defeated in primary
Withdrawn
Declined

Endorsements

Mariannette Miller-Meeks
Statewide politicians
Organizations
Bobby Schilling
Federal politicians

Results

Republican primary results[65]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks 23,036 47.6
Republican Bobby Schilling 17,570 36.3
Republican Steven Everly 2,806 5.8
Republican Rick Phillips 2,441 5.1
Republican Tim Borchardt 2,369 4.9
N/A Write-in 161 0.3
Total votes 48,383 100.0%

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[66] Tossup July 16, 2020
Inside Elections[67] Tilt D July 24, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[68] Lean D July 23, 2020
Politico[69] Lean D July 6, 2020
Daily Kos[70] Lean D July 21, 2020
RCP[71] Tossup June 9, 2020
Niskanen[72] Likely D July 26, 2020

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Rita
Hart (D)
Mariannette
Miller-Meeks (R)
Other/Undecided
Monmouth University July 25 – August 3, 2020 374 ± 5.1% 44% 47% 9%[lower-alpha 8]
Harper Polling (R)[upper-alpha 5] July 26–28, 2020 406 (LV) ± 4.9% 41% 41% 16%
Hypothetical polling
with Generic Democrat and Generic Republican
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Generic
Democrat
Generic
Republican
Undecided
Selzer and Co./Des Moines Register June 7–10, 2020 – (LV)[lower-alpha 9] <= ± 7.7% 53% 35%
Selzer and Co./Des Moines Register March 2–5, 2020 – (LV)[lower-alpha 10] 41% 49%

Results

Iowa's 2nd congressional district, 2020
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Rita Hart
Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks
Total votes 100.0

District 3

The 3rd district encompasses southwestern Iowa, stretching from Des Moines to the state's borders with Nebraska and Missouri. The incumbent is Democrat Cindy Axne, who flipped the district and was elected with 49.3% of the vote in 2018.[1]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Results

Democratic primary results [74]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Cindy Axne (incumbent) 76,681 99.2
N/A Write-ins 623 0.8
Total votes 77,304 100.0%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee
Defeated in primary
  • Bill Schafer, U.S. Army veteran[76]
Declined

Results

Republican primary results [80]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican David Young 39,103 69.5
Republican Bill Schafer 16,904 30.1
N/A Write-in 227 0.4
Total votes 56,234 100.0%

Third parties

Candidates

  • Bryan Jack Holder (Libertarian)[81]

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[82] Tossup July 16, 2020
Inside Elections[83] Tilt D August 7, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[84] Lean D July 23, 2020
Politico[85] Tossup July 6, 2020
Daily Kos[86] Lean D July 21, 2020
RCP[87] Tossup June 9, 2020
Niskanen[88] Lean D July 26, 2020

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Cindy
Axne (D)
David
Young (R)
Bryan
Holder (L)
Other/Undecided
Monmouth University July 25 – August 3, 2020 507 ± 4.4% 48% 42% 2% 8%[lower-alpha 11]
The Tarrance Group (R)[upper-alpha 1] July 7–9, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 43% 44% 6% 7%
Hypothetical polling
with Generic Democrat and Generic Republican
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Generic
Democrat
Generic
Republican
Undecided
Selzer and Co./Des Moines Register June 7–10, 2020 – (LV)[lower-alpha 12] <= ± 7.7% 52% 36%
Selzer and Co./Des Moines Register March 2–5, 2020 – (LV)[lower-alpha 13] 42% 43%

Results

Iowa's 3rd congressional district, 2020
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Cindy Axne (incumbent)
Republican David Young
Libertarian Brian Jack Holder
Total votes 100.0

District 4

The 4th district is based in northwestern Iowa, including Sioux City, Ames, Mason City, Fort Dodge, Boone and Carroll. The incumbent is Republican Steve King, who was re-elected with 50.3% of the vote in 2018.[1]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee
Defeated in primary
Declined

Endorsements

Randy Feenstra
State Senators
State Representatives
Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers
Steve King
State Representatives
Individuals
  • Sam Clovis, national co-chair of Donald Trump's 2016 presidential campaign, candidate for State Treasurer of Iowa in 2014[108]

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Steve
King
Randy
Feenstra
Steve
Reeder
Jeremy
Taylor
Other Undecided
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[upper-alpha 6] May 16–18, 2020 400 (V) ± 4.9% 39% 41% 1% 4% 3%[upper-alpha 7]
41%[lower-alpha 14] 48%
American Viewpoint[upper-alpha 8] May 7–8, 2020 350 (LV) ± 5.2% 39% 36% 9%[lower-alpha 15] 10%
American Viewpoint/[upper-alpha 8] April 27–29, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 41% 34% 8%[lower-alpha 16] 15%
American Viewpoint[upper-alpha 8] January 27–29, 2020 [lower-alpha 17] 53% 22% [lower-alpha 18]
G1 Survey Research October 1–3, 2019 400 (LV) ± 4.89% 59% 15% 6% 0% 2%[lower-alpha 19] 17%
64%[lower-alpha 20] 24% 12%[lower-alpha 21]
64%[lower-alpha 22] 19% 17%[lower-alpha 23]

Results

Republican primary results[109]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Randy Feenstra 37,297 45.5
Republican Steve King (incumbent) 29,362 35.9
Republican Jeremy Taylor 6,417 7.8
Republican Bret Richards 6,136 7.5
Republican Steve Reeder 2,522 3.1
N/A Write-in 176 0.2
Total votes 81,910 100.0%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Endorsements

J.D. Scholten
Individuals
Organizations

Results

Democratic primary results[112]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic J. D. Scholten 46,354 99.6
N/A Write-in 166 0.4
Total votes 46,520 100.0%

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[113] Safe R July 16, 2020
Inside Elections[114] Safe R July 24, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[115] Safe R July 23, 2020
Politico[116] Safe R July 6, 2020
Daily Kos[117] Safe R July 21, 2020
RCP[118] Lean R June 9, 2020
Niskanen[119] Likely R July 26, 2020

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Randy
Feenstra (R)
J.D.
Scholten (D)
Other/Undecided
Monmouth University July 25 – August 3, 2020 393 ± 5.0% 54% 34% 12%[lower-alpha 24]
Hypothetical polling
with Steve King and J.D. Scholten
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Steve
King (R)
J.D.
Scholten (D)
Undecided
20/20 Insight (D)[upper-alpha 9] January 16–17, 2019 472 (LV) ± 4.5% 39% 44% 17%
with Steve King and Generic Democrat
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Steve
King (R)
Generic
Democrat
Undecided
20/20 Insight (D)[upper-alpha 9] January 16–17, 2019 472 ± 4.5% 37% 45% 18%
with Generic Republican and Generic Democrat
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Generic
Republican
Generic
Democrat
Undecided
Selzer and Co./Des Moines Register June 7–10, 2020 – (LV)[lower-alpha 25] <= ± 7.7% 57% 35%
Selzer and Co./Des Moines Register March 2–5, 2020 – (LV)[lower-alpha 26] 51% 40%

Results

Iowa's 4th congressional district, 2020
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Randy Feenstra
Democratic J. D. Scholten
Total votes 100.0

Notes

  1. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. "Other" with 1% and Undecided with 8%
  3. Standard VI response
  4. Response after pollster addresses respondents with message testing
  5. Not yet released; IA-01 subsample of statewide sample of 674
  6. Not yet released; IA-01 subsample of statewide sample of 667
  7. Standard VI response
  8. "No one" with 1% and Undecided with 9%
  9. Not yet released; IA-02 subsample of statewide sample of 674
  10. Not yet released; IA-02 subsample of statewide sample of 667
  11. "Other" with 1%, "No one" with 1%, and Undecided with 6%
  12. Not yet released; IA-03 subsample of statewide sample of 674
  13. Not yet released; IA-03 subsample of statewide sample of 667
  14. If only King and Feenstra were candidates
  15. "Another candidate" with 9%
  16. "Another candidate" with 8%
  17. Not yet released
  18. Not yet released
  19. Bret Richards with 2%
  20. If respondents had to choose between the two candidates for which percentages are listed
  21. "Undecided/don't know/refused" with 12%
  22. If respondents had to choose between the two candidates for which percentages are listed
  23. "Undecided/don't know/refused" with 17%
  24. "Other" with 1%, "No one" with 3%, and Undecided with 8%
  25. Not yet released; IA-04 subsample of statewide sample of 674
  26. Not yet released; IA-04 subsample of statewide sample of 667
Partisan clients
  1. This poll was sponsored by the NRCC
  2. The Future Leaders Fund is a pro-Republican PAC
  3. This poll was sponsored by the NRCC
  4. The Future Leaders Fund is a pro-Republican PAC
  5. Poll conducted for the Congressional Leadership Fund.
  6. American Future Fund is a PAC supporting Randy Feenstra
  7. Richards with 3%
  8. Poll sponsored by Feenstra's campaign
  9. Poll sponsored by Majority Rules PAC

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