2020 United States Senate election in Iowa

The 2020 United States Senate election in Iowa will be held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Iowa, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Primaries were held on June 2.[1]

2020 United States Senate election in Iowa

November 3, 2020

Nominee Joni Ernst Theresa Greenfield Party Republican Democratic

Incumbent U.S. senator Joni Ernst Republican

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Joni Ernst, incumbent U.S. Senator[2][3][4]

Withdrawn

• Paul Rieck[5][6]

Endorsements

Joni Ernst
Organizations Maggie's List[7]

Results

Republican primary results[8]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Joni Ernst (incumbent)	226,514	98.64%
	Republican	Write-In	3,131	1.36%
Total votes			229,645	100.0%

Democratic primary

2020 United States Senate election in Iowa Democratic Primary

June 2, 2020

Candidate Theresa Greenfield Michael T. Franken Popular vote 131,985 68,843 Percentage 47.71% 24.88%   Candidate Kimberly Graham Eddie Mauro Popular vote 41,547 30,396 Percentage 15.02% 10.99%

County results Results by county:   Greenfield—70–80%   Greenfield—60–70%   Greenfield—50–60%   Greenfield—40–50%   Greenfield—<40%   Franken—<40%

Democratic Senate Nominee before election Bruce Braley Elected Democratic Senate Nominee Theresa Greenfield

Candidates

Nominee

• Theresa Greenfield, businesswoman, candidate for Iowa's 3rd congressional district in 2018[9]

Eliminated in primary

• Michael T. Franken, retired U.S. Navy admiral and former aide to U.S. Senator Ted Kennedy[10]
• Kimberly Graham, child welfare attorney[11][12]
• Eddie Mauro, businessman, teacher, candidate for Iowa's 3rd congressional district in 2018[13]

Withdrawn

• Cal Woods, journalist and U.S. Navy veteran[14][15][16] (endorsed Michael T. Franken) (remained on ballot)

Declined

• Cindy Axne, incumbent U.S. Representative for Iowa's 3rd congressional district (running for reelection, endorsed Greenfield)[17]
• Chet Culver, former Governor of Iowa[18]
• Deirdre DeJear, nominee for Secretary of State of Iowa in 2018[19]
• Abby Finkenauer, incumbent U.S. Representative for Iowa's 1st congressional district (running for reelection, endorsed Greenfield)[20][21]
• Amber Gustafson, candidate for the Iowa Senate in 2018 (endorsed Greenfield)[22]
• Rita Hart, former state senator and nominee for Lieutenant Governor of Iowa in 2018 (running in Iowa's 2nd congressional district)[4][23][24]
• Rob Hogg, state senator[4][23]
• Liz Mathis, state senator[25]
• Rob Sand, Iowa State Auditor[4][26]
• J.D. Scholten, nominee for Iowa's 4th congressional district in 2018 (running in Iowa's 4th congressional district)[27]
• Tom Vilsack, former Governor of Iowa and former U.S. Secretary of Agriculture[28]
• Stacey Walker, Linn County supervisor (endorsed Graham)[29][30]
• Steve Warnstadt, former state senator and intelligence officer in the Iowa Army National Guard[4][23]

Debates

Host network	Date	Link(s)	Participants
			Theresa Greenfield	Michael D. Franken	Kimberly Graham	Eddie Mauro
Iowa PBS	May 18, 2020	[31]	Present	Present	Present	Present

Endorsements

Michael Franken
Federal officials Chuck Hagel, former U.S. Secretary of Defense (2013-2015) and U.S. Senator from Nebraska (1997-2009)[32] (Republican)

Kimberly Graham
Individuals Paula Jean Swearengin, Democratic nominee in 2020 West Virginia U.S. Senate race[33] Organizations Association of Professional Flight Attendants[33] Brand New Congress[34] Sunrise Movement Cedar Rapids Chapter[35] Sunrise Movement Dubuque Chapter[33] Sunrise Movement University of Iowa Chapter[33]

Theresa Greenfield

Federal officials Sherrod Brown, U.S. Senator from Ohio[36] Abby Finkenauer, U.S. Representative (IA-01)[21] Gabby Giffords, former U.S. Representative (AZ-08) (2007-2012)[37] Dave Loebsack, U.S. Representative (IA-02)[38] State officials Sally Pederson, former Lieutenant Governor (1997-2007)[37] Pam Jochum, state senator and former Iowa Senate president (2013-2017)[37] Janet Petersen, state senator and Senate Minority Leader[37] Zach Wahls, state senator[37] Jim Lykam, state senator[37] Tony Bisignano, state senator[37] Amanda Ragan, state senator[37] Joseph Bolkcom, state senator[37] Marti Anderson, state representative[37] Jo Oldson, state representative[37] Sharon Steckman, state representative[37] Monica Kurth, state representative[37] Mary Mascher, state representative[37] Cindy Winckler, state representative[37] Bruce Hunter, state representative[37] John Forbes, state representative[37] Bob Kressig, state representative[37] Kristin Sunde, state representative[37] Robert Dvorsky, former state senator (1995-2019) and state representative (1987-1995)[37] Joe Riding, former state representative (2013-2015)[37] Ro Foege, former state representative (1996-2008)[37] Individuals Jon Bauman, Social Security Works PAC president and former Sha Na Na member (1970-1983)[37] Andy McGuire, former Iowa Democratic Party chair[37] Kate Mulgrew, actress and activist[39] Christie Vilsack, former Iowa First Lady (1997-2007)[37] Unions American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees Council 61[37] United Food and Commercial Workers Local 431[37] International Association of Bridge, Structural, Ornamental and Reinforcing Iron Workers Local 89, 67, 111, 577, 21[37] International Brotherhood of Teamsters Local 238[37] International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers Iowa State Conference[37] American Federation of Government Employees[37] Organizations Brady Campaign[40] DSCC [41] EMILY's List[42] End Citizens United[43] Feminist Majority PAC[44] Giffords[45] League of Conservation Voters[46] NARAL Pro-Choice America[47] Population Connection[48]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Michael Franken	Kimberly Graham	Theresa Greenfield	Eddie Mauro	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	May 5–6, 2020	849	–	12%	4%	43%	4%	36%
Emerson College	October 13–16, 2019	317	± 5.5%	6%	4%	11%	6%	74%

Results

Democratic primary results[49]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Theresa Greenfield	131,985	47.71%
	Democratic	Michael T. Franken	68,843	24.88%
	Democratic	Kimberly Graham	41,547	15.02%
	Democratic	Eddie Mauro	30,396	10.99%
	Democratic	Cal Woods (withdrawn)	3,371	1.21%
	Democratic	Write-In	512	0.19%
Total votes			276,654	100.0%

Other candidates

Libertarian Party

Nominee

• Rick Stewart, Libertarian nominee for the 2018 Iowa Secretary of Agriculture election and independent candidate for the 2014 United States Senate election in Iowa[50]

Independents

Declared

• Suzanne Herzog, economist and former ER nurse[51]

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[52]	Tossup	July 23, 2020
Inside Elections[53]	Tossup	July 10, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[54]	Tossup	August 5, 2020
Daily Kos[55]	Lean R	July 22, 2020
Politico[56]	Tossup	July 6, 2020
RCP[57]	Tossup	August 6, 2020
Niskanen[58]	Tossup	July 26, 2020
270towin[59]	Tossup	August 6, 2020

Endorsements

Joni Ernst (R)
Organizations Maggie's List[7] Campaign for Working Families[60] Huck PAC[61]

Theresa Greenfield (D)

Federal officials Barack Obama, 44th President of the United States[62] Sherrod Brown, U.S. Senator from Ohio[36] Abby Finkenauer, U.S. Representative (IA-01)[21] Gabby Giffords, former U.S. Representative (AZ-08)[37] Kirsten Gillibrand, United States Senator from New York[63] Dave Loebsack, U.S. Representative (IA-02)[38] State and local officials Sally Pederson, former Lieutenant Governor of Iowa[37] Pam Jochum, state senator and former Iowa Senate president (2013-2017) and state representative (1993-2009)[37] Janet Petersen, state senator and Senate Minority Leader[37] Zach Wahls, state senator[37] Jim Lykam, state senator[37] Tony Bisignano, state senator[37] Amanda Ragan, state senator[37] Joseph Bolkcom, state senator[37] Marti Anderson, state representative[37] Jo Oldson, state representative[37] Sharon Steckman, state representative[37] Monica Kurth, state representative[37] Mary Mascher, state representative[37] Cindy Winckler, state representative[37] Bruce Hunter, state representative[37] John Forbes, state representative[37] Bob Kressig, state representative[37] Kristin Sunde, state representative[37] Robert Dvorsky, former state senator[37] Joe Riding, former state representative[37] Ro Foege, former state representative[37] Walt Tomenga, former state representative (Republican)[64] Individuals Jon Bauman, Social Security Works PAC president and former Sha Na Na member[37] Andy McGuire, former Iowa Democratic Party chair[37] Christie Vilsack, former Iowa First Lady (1999-2007)[37] Unions American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees Council 61[37] United Food and Commercial Workers Local 431[37] International Association of Bridge, Structural, Ornamental and Reinforcing Iron Workers Local 89, 67, 111, 577, 21[37] International Brotherhood of Teamsters Local 238[37] International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers Iowa State Conference[37] American Federation of Government Employees[37] Organizations Brady Campaign[40] Democracy for America[65] DSCC [41] EMILY's List[42] End Citizens United[43] Everytown for Gun Safety[66] Feminist Majority PAC[44] Giffords[45] League of Conservation Voters[46] NARAL Pro-Choice America[47] National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare[67] Population Connection[48]

Polling

Aggregate Polling

Theresa Greenfield vs. Joni Ernst

Theresa Greenfield vs. Joni Ernst
Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Theresa Greenfield	Joni Ernst	Other/Undecided[lower-alpha 2]	Margin
270 to Win	December 18, 2019 - July 23, 2020	August 6, 2020	43.3%	42.3%	14.4%	Greenfield +1.0

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Joni Ernst (R)	Theresa Greenfield (D)	Other/Undecided
Monmouth University	July 30 – August 3, 2020	401 (RV)	± 4.9%	48%	45%	7%
RMG Research	July 27–30, 2020	500 (RV)	± 4.5%	36%	40%	24%
Data for Progress	July 24 – August 2, 2020	1,101 (LV)	± 3.2%	43%	45%	11%
Spry Strategies (R)	July 11–16, 2020	701 (LV)	± 3.7%	43%	45%	12%
GQR Research (D)[upper-alpha 1]	June 23–28, 2020	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	47%	49%	4%
Selzer/Des Moines Register	June 7–10, 2020	674 (LV)	± 3.8%	43%	46%	11%
Civiqs/Daily Kos	June 6–8, 2020	865 (RV)	± 3.8%	45%	48%	6%
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 2]	June 3–4, 2020	963 (V)	± 3.4%	43%	45%	12%
Public Policy Polling	April 30 – May 1, 2020	1,222 (V)	± 2.8%	43%	42%	14%
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 1]	December 13–15, 2019	944 (V)	± 3.4%	47%	41%	12%
Emerson College	October 13–16, 2019	888 (RV)	± 3.2%	47%	40%	14%
Lake Research Partners (D)[upper-alpha 3]	April 24–29, 2019	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	56%	34%	–

Hypothetical polling

with Eddie Mauro Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 1] Margin of error Joni Ernst (R) Eddie Mauro (D) Undecided RABA Research/Eddie Mauro[lower-alpha 3] May 7–9, 2020 632 ± 3.9% 42% 42% – Lake Research Partners (D)[upper-alpha 3] April 24–29, 2019 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 58%[lower-alpha 4] 33% – 49%[lower-alpha 5] 44% – with Joni Ernst and generic Democrat Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 1] Margin of error Joni Ernst (R) Generic Democrat Undecided Public Policy Polling April 29–30, 2019 780 ± 3.5% 48% 44% – Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 4] June 30 – July 1, 2017 784 ± 3.6% 48% 41% 12% with Joni Ernst and Generic Opponent Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 1] Margin of error Joni Ernst (R) Generic Opponent Other Undecided Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co. March 2–5, 2020 667 (LV) ± 3.8% 41% 31% 3%[lower-alpha 6] 26%[lower-alpha 7] with generic Republican and generic Democrat Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 1] Margin of error Generic Republican Generic Democrat Undecided Lake Research Partners (D)[upper-alpha 3] April 24–29, 2019 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 45% 41% –

Results

United States Senate election in Iowa, 2020

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	Republican	Joni Ernst (incumbent)
	Democratic	Theresa Greenfield
	Libertarian	Rick Stewart
	Independent	Suzanne Herzog
Total votes				100.0%

Notes

Partisan clients

1. Poll sponsored by the End Citizens United, which has only supported Democratic candidates who are against the landmark Citizens United Supreme Court ruling.
2. Poll sponsored by Emily's List, an organization that supports Democratic female candidates.
3. Poll sponsored by the Eddie Mauro campaign
4. Poll sponsored by Save My Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organisation

Voter samples

1. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
2. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
3. Poll sponsored by Mauro's campaign
4. Standard VI response
5. Response after pollster addresses respondents with talking points about Ernst and Mauro
6. Would not vote with 3%
7. "Would consider voting for someone else" with 20%; "unsure" with 6%

References

1. "United States Senate election in Iowa, 2020 (June 2 Democratic primary)". ballotpedia.org. Retrieved January 13, 2020.
2. Cohen, Zach C. (December 5, 2018). "How 2014's Outsiders Became 2020's Insiders". National Journal. Retrieved December 5, 2018.
3. Axelrod, Tal (2018-12-08). "Iowa's Ernst will run for reelection in 2020". TheHill. Retrieved 2018-12-30.
4. Gunzburger, Ron. "Politics1 - Online Guide to Iowa Politics". politics1.com. Retrieved 2018-12-31.
5. Tope, Mallory (October 31, 2019). "Candidates gear up campaigns for Iowa U.S. Senate race". Iowa State Daily. Retrieved May 15, 2020.
6. "Iowa 2020 Federal Candidate List".
7. "2020 Candidates". maggieslist.org.
8. "Election Night Reporting | UNITED STATES SENATE - REPUBLICAN". results.enr.clarityelections.com. Iowa Secretary of State.
9. Gerber, Drew [@dagerber] (June 3, 2019). "Theresa Greenfield launches her campaign for #IASEN. She's been highly sought after by the party" (Tweet). Retrieved June 3, 2019 – via Twitter.
10. Pfannenstiel, Brianne (August 26, 2019). "Retired Navy Admiral Michael Franken to run for U.S. Senate, challenge Joni Ernst". Des Moines Register. Retrieved August 26, 2019.
11. Becker, Amanda; Jackson, Katharine (January 19, 2019). "Women protest in hundreds of U.S. cities for third straight year". Reuters. Retrieved May 11, 2019.
12. Wade, Jazmen (July 20, 2019). "Iowa US Senate Candidate Kimberly Graham for the People". KHQA.
13. Iowa Starting Line [@IAStartingLine] (2019-05-19). "Guess we'll wait for the official thing tomorrow AM, but FYI #IASenpic.twitter.com/E0EJWVXsRF" (Tweet). Retrieved 2019-05-19 – via Twitter.
14. Rivers, Amie (March 2, 2020). "U.S. Senate candidate Cal Woods looking to take on 'climate crisis' if elected". The Courier.
15. "Meet Cal". Cal for Iowa. Retrieved 2020-04-10.
16. Lynch, James Q. "Cal Woods drops out of Iowa Democratic U.S. Senate race". The Gazette. Retrieved 5 May 2020.
17. Price, Dave [@idaveprice] (April 30, 2019). "Confirmed: Iowa Democrat @RepCindyAxne running for re-election in the 3rd District. Not running for senate against @SenJoniErnst in 2020. Axne is in her first term after defeating two term incumbent @RepDavidYoung in 2018. @WHOhd #iowavotes2020" (Tweet). Retrieved April 30, 2019 – via Twitter.
18. "2020 Senate At-A-Glance" (PDF). Cook Political Report. Retrieved 9 January 2019.
19. "Democrats look to unseat Joni Ernst in 2020 Senate race". The Washington Times. Retrieved 2018-12-28.
20. Bowman, Bridget (August 21, 2019). "House freshmen try to keep it local as presidential race steals the spotlight". Roll Call. Retrieved August 22, 2019.
21. Meyer, Elizabeth (September 24, 2019). "Finkenauer Endorses Greenfield In Effort To Unseat Ernst". Iowa Starting Line.
22. "Endorsement Alert!". us7.campaign-archive.com. Retrieved 2019-08-30.
23. "Who will run against Joni Ernst in 2020?". Iowa Starting Line. November 12, 2018. Retrieved November 12, 2018.
24. Arkin, James (February 27, 2019). "Senate recruiting notebook: Duran clarifies field facing Gardner". Politico. Retrieved February 27, 2019. And former state Sen. Rita Hart, the 2018 Democratic nominee for lieutenant governor, is a potential candidate, according to multiple Iowa Democrats, but she has not discussed a campaign publicly.
25. Weig, Nick (February 26, 2019). "Sen. Liz Mathis meets with Democrats in D.C. to talk about 2020 Senate race". CBS2. Retrieved February 27, 2019.
26. Rynard, Pat (February 25, 2019). "Who's Gearing Up To Challenge Joni Ernst?". Iowa Starting Line. Retrieved February 25, 2019.
27. Judd, Donald (August 5, 2019). "Iowa native JD Scholten announces second bid to unseat GOP Rep. Steve King". CNN. Retrieved August 5, 2019.
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29. "Stacey Walker won't seek U.S. Senate nomination". The Gazette. August 12, 2019. Retrieved August 12, 2019.
30. Lynch, James Q. "Linn County Supervisor Stacey Walker endorses Kimberly Graham for Senate". The Gazette. Retrieved 2019-10-30.
31. "Iowa Press Debates: U.S. Senate Democratic Primary". www.youtube.com.
32. "The Public Pulse: Davis essay rang true; Hagel supports Franken; Trump is the real threat". Omaha.com.
33. "Endorsements". Kimberly Graham for U.S. Senate. Retrieved 2 April 2020.
34. "Kimberly Graham". Brand New Congress. October 23, 2019.
35. Murray, Isabella (December 5, 2019). "Iowa Climate Strikes Will Draw National, State Political Leaders". Iowa Starting Line.
36. "IA-Sen: Sen. Sherrod Brown (D. OH) Helps Theresa Greenfield (D) Get Ready To Defeat Joni Ernst (R)". Daily KOS. Dec 16, 2019.
37. "Endorsements". greenfieldforiowa.com.
38. Opsahl, Robin (June 25, 2019). "Theresa Greenfield nets endorsement from Rep. Dave Loebsack in Democratic Senate primary". Des Moines Register.
39. Instagram post on 5/27/2020
40. Brown, Kris (January 8, 2020). "Brady Endorses Theresa Greenfield for U.S. Senate: Iowa Needs A Common-sense Champion". Brady.
41. "DSCC Endorses Theresa Greenfield in Iowa Senate Campaign". DSCC: Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. June 6, 2019.
42. "EMILY's List Endorses Theresa Greenfield for U.S. Senate in Iowa". Emily's List. June 6, 2019.
43. Muller, Tiffany (July 10, 2019). "End Citizens United Endorses Theresa Greenfield; Names Ernst to "Big Money 20"". End Citizens United.
44. "2020 – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org.
45. "In Key Senate Races, Giffords Backs Challengers in Iowa and North Carolina Taking on NRA-Backed Incumbents". Giffords.
46. Burke, Holly (October 2, 2019). "LCV Action Fund Endorses Theresa Greenfield for U.S. Senate". League of Conservation Voters. Retrieved November 26, 2019.
47. "NARAL Pro-Choice America Endorses Theresa Greenfield for U.S. Senate". NARAL Pro-Choice America. November 7, 2019.
48. "2020 Endorsements". Population Connection.
49. "Election Night Reporting | UNITED STATES SENATE - DEMOCRATIC". results.enr.clarityelections.com. Iowa Secretary of State.
50. "The Green Papers: Iowa 2020 General Election". The Green Papers. May 15, 2020. Retrieved May 15, 2020.
51. "Suzanne Herzog For US Senate – Iowa's Independent Voice".
52. "2020 Senate Race Ratings for April 19, 2019". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2019.
53. "2020 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved July 17, 2020.
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56. "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
57. "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
58. "2020 Negative Partisanship and the 2020 Congressional Elections". Niskanen Center. April 28, 2020.
59. "2020 Senate Map Based on Polls". 270towin.com. August 6, 2020. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
60. https://www.cwfpac.com/endorsedcandidates
61. https://www.huckpac.com/candidates
62. "First Wave of 2020 Endorsements". August 3, 2020.
63. Kirsten Gillibrand (February 5, 2020). "Off the Sidelines Endorsed Candidates".
64. Greenfield, Theresa [@GreenfieldIowa] (July 8, 2020). ""I've lived in Iowa for over 55 years and I've been a Republican all that time… This year, I'm voting for Theresa Greenfield." - Walt Tomenga, Dallas County farmer, lifelong Republican and former State Representative" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
65. "Democracy for America endorses Theresa Greenfield for U.S. Senate in Iowa". Democracy for America. February 12, 2020.
66. "Everytown For Gun Safety Action Fund Endorses Theresa Greenfield for U.S. Senate in Iowa". Everytown. June 9, 2020.
67. "Candidates We Endorse and Support". NCPSSM.

External links

Official campaign websites

• Joni Ernst (R) for Senate
• Theresa Greenfield (D) for Senate
• Suzanne Herzog (I) for Senate
• Rick Stewart (L) for Senate