2020 United States presidential election in Maine

The 2020 United States presidential election in Maine is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate.[1] Maine voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Maine has four electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2] Unlike all other states except Nebraska, Maine awards two electoral votes based on the statewide vote, and one vote for each congressional district. In the 2016 election, Maine split its vote for the first time since 1828, awarding one electoral vote to Donald Trump as he got the most votes in Maine's 2nd congressional district.[3]

Main article: 2020 United States presidential election
2020 United States presidential election in Maine
November 3, 2020
Turnout%
 
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden Jo Jorgensen
Party Republican Democratic Libertarian
Home state Florida Delaware South Carolina
Running mate Mike Pence Kamala Harris Spike Cohen
Incumbent President

Donald Trump
Republican
Elections in Maine

Maine will be the first state ever to use ranked-choice voting for the presidential general election, with voters able to rank their preferred candidates on the ballot.[4] Prior to 2019, no other American state thus far has used a voting system other than first-past-the-post or selection by the legislature to choose its presidential electors.

Primary elections

The primary elections were held on Super Tuesday, March 3, 2020.

Republican primary

Incumbent President Donald Trump ran unopposed in the Republican primary, and thus he received all of Maine's 22 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[5]

2020 Maine Republican primary[6]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[7]
Donald Trump 95,360 83.85 22
Blank ballots 18,368 16.15 0
Total 113,728 100% 22

Democratic primary

In an electoral upset, moderate candidate Joe Biden won the state, which primary opponent Bernie Sanders previously won in 2016.

This section is an excerpt from 2020 Maine Democratic presidential primary[edit]
2020 Maine Democratic presidential primary[8]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[9]
Joe Biden 68,729 33.37 11
Bernie Sanders 66,826 32.45 9
Elizabeth Warren 32,055 15.57 4
Michael Bloomberg 24,294 11.80
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn†) 4,364 2.12
Amy Klobuchar(withdrawn†) 2,826 1.37
Tulsi Gabbard 1,815 0.88
Andrew Yang (withdrawn†) 696 0.34
Tom Steyer (withdrawn†) 313 0.15
Deval Patrick (withdrawn†) 218 0.11
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) 201 0.10
Cory Booker (withdrawn) 183 0.09
Blank ballots 3,417 1.66
Total 205,937 100% 24
† Candidate withdrew after early voting started.

Libertarian nominee
  • Jo Jorgensen, Psychology Senior Lecturer at Clemson University

General election

Ballot access

Libertarian

The Libertarian Party was recognized by Maine as an official party in June 2016, but lost that status in December 2018. Consequently, Libertarian nominee Jo Jorgensen's only opportunity to appear on the ballot for the 2020 election is to appear as a nonpartisan candidate. To qualify for ballot access, Jorgensen must submit 4,000 petition signatures to the state by August 3. Jorgensen has sued the state for a reduction of the signature requirement, citing an increase in the difficulty of petitioning caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.[10]

Predictions

At-large
Source Ranking As of
FiveThirtyEight[11] Likely D August 12, 2020
The Cook Political Report[12] Likely D July 23, 2020
Inside Elections[13] Safe D July 17, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[14] Lean D July 14, 2020
Politico[15] Lean D July 6, 2020
RCP[16] Likely D August 3, 2020
Niskanen[17] Safe D March 24, 2020
CNN[18] Safe D August 3, 2020
The Economist[19] Likely D August 7, 2020
CBS News[20] Likely D August 9, 2020
270towin[21] Likely D August 2, 2020
ABC News[22] Safe D July 31, 2020
NPR[23] Likely D August 3, 2020
NBC News[24] Likely D August 6, 2020

1st district
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[25] Safe D July 23, 2020
Inside Elections[26] Safe D July 17, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[27] Safe D July 14, 2020
Politico[28] Safe D July 6, 2020
RCP[29] Likely D August 3, 2020
Niskanen[17] Safe D March 24, 2020
CNN[30] Safe D August 3, 2020
The Economist[31] Safe D August 7, 2020
CBS News[32] Likely D August 9, 2020
270towin[33] Safe D August 2, 2020
ABC News[34] Safe D July 31, 2020
NPR[35] Likely D August 3, 2020
NBC News[36] Safe D August 6, 2020

2nd district
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[37] Tossup July 23, 2020
Inside Elections[38] Tossup July 17, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[39] Lean R July 14, 2020
Politico[40] Tossup July 6, 2020
RCP[41] Tossup August 3, 2020
Niskanen[17] Tossup March 24, 2020
CNN[42] Tossup August 3, 2020
The Economist[43] Likely D (flip)[lower-alpha 1] August 7, 2020
CBS News[44] Lean R August 9, 2020
270towin[45] Tossup August 2, 2020
ABC News[46] Tossup July 31, 2020
NPR[47] Tossup August 3, 2020
NBC News[48] Lean D (flip) August 6, 2020

Polling
statewide with Donald Trump and Joe Biden
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Joe
Biden (D)		 Other Undecided
Critical Insights Jul 28 – Aug 9, 2020 500 (RV) 36% 44% 9%[lower-alpha 3] 9%
Quinnipiac University Jul 30 – Aug 3, 2020 805 (RV) ± 3.7% 37% 52% 6%[lower-alpha 4] 4%
RMG Research Jul 27 – Aug 2, 2020 500 (RV) ± 4.5% 39% 50% 7% 4%
Data for Progress Jul 24 – Aug 2, 2020 866 (LV) – 43% 53% – 4%
42% 49% 2%[lower-alpha 5] 7%
Public Policy Polling Jul 23–24, 2020 962 (V) – 42% 53% – 5%
Colby College Jul 18–24, 2020 888 (RV) ± 3.9% 38% 50% 5% 7%
Public Policy Polling Jul 2–3, 2020 1,022 (V) ± 3.1% 42% 53% – 5%
Public Policy Polling Mar 2–3, 2020 872 (V) ± 3.3% 42% 52% – 6%
Public Policy Polling Oct 11–13, 2019 939 (LV) ± 3.2% 42% 54% – 4%
Fabrizio Ward/AARP Jul 29–31, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 50% – 5%
Gravis Marketing Jun 24, 2019 767 (RV) ± 3.5% 46% 54% – –
Maine's 1st congressional district with Donald Trump and Joe Biden
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Joe
Biden (D)		 Other Undecided
Critical Insights Jul 28 – Aug 9, 2020 500 (RV) 33% 49% 10%[lower-alpha 6] 6%
Quinnipiac University Jul 30 – Aug 3, 2020 – – 30% 61% 6%[lower-alpha 7] 3%
Colby College Jul 18–24, 2020 425 (LV) – 35% 55% – –
Public Policy Polling Oct 11–13, 2019 478 (LV) – 38% 58% – 3%
Maine's 2nd congressional district with Donald Trump and Joe Biden
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Joe
Biden (D)		 Other Undecided
Critical Insights Jul 28 – Aug 9, 2020 500 (RV) 38% 39% 10%[lower-alpha 8] 11%
Quinnipiac University Jul 30 – Aug 3, 2020 – – 45% 44% 6%[lower-alpha 9] 5%
Colby College Jul 18–24, 2020 449 (LV) – 42% 45% – –
Public Policy Polling Oct 11–13, 2019 461 (LV) – 46% 49% – 4%
Former candidates
with Donald Trump and Pete Buttigieg
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Pete
Buttigieg (D)		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling Oct 11–13, 2019 939 (LV) ± 3.2% 43% 52% 5%
Gravis Marketing Jun 24, 2019 767 (RV) ± 3.5% 49% 51% –
with Donald Trump and Kamala Harris
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Kamala
Harris (D)		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling Oct 11–13, 2019 939 (LV) ± 3.2% 44% 50% 6%
Gravis Marketing Jun 24, 2019 767 (RV) ± 3.5% 48% 52% –
with Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Bernie
Sanders (D)		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling Mar 2–3, 2020 872 (V) ± 3.3% 42% 52% 7%
Public Policy Polling Oct 11–13, 2019 939 (LV) ± 3.2% 43% 53% 4%
Gravis Marketing Jun 24, 2019 767 (RV) ± 3.5% 47% 53% –
with Donald Trump and Elizabeth Warren
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Elizabeth
Warren (D)		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling Oct 11–13, 2019 939 (LV) ± 3.2% 43% 53% 4%
Gravis Marketing Jun 24, 2019 767 (RV) ± 3.5% 48% 52% –
with Pete Buttigieg in Maine's 1st congressional district
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Pete
Buttigieg (D)		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling Oct 11–13, 2019 478 (LV) – 38% 58% 3%
with Kamala Harris in Maine's 1st congressional district
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Kamala
Harris (D)		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling Oct 11–13, 2019 478 (LV) – 39% 57% 4%
with Bernie Sanders in Maine's 1st congressional district
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Bernie
Sanders (D)		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling Oct 11–13, 2019 478 (LV) – 39% 57% 4%
with Elizabeth Warren in Maine's 1st congressional district
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Elizabeth
Warren (D)		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling Oct 11–13, 2019 478 (LV) – 39% 57% 3%
with Pete Buttigieg in Maine's 2nd congressional district
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Pete
Buttigieg (D)		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling Oct 11–13, 2019 461 (LV) – 49% 44% 7%
with Kamala Harris in Maine's 2nd congressional district
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Kamala
Harris (D)		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling Oct 11–13, 2019 461 (LV) – 49% 43% 8%
with Bernie Sanders in Maine's 2nd congressional district
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Bernie
Sanders (D)		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling Oct 11–13, 2019 461 (LV) – 47% 49% 4%
with Elizabeth Warren in Maine's 2nd congressional district
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Elizabeth
Warren (D)		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling Oct 11–13, 2019 461 (LV) – 48% 47% 5%
Hypothetical polling
with Generic Democrat
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Generic
Democrat (D)		 Undecided
Colby College/SocialSphere Feb 10–13, 2020 1,008 (LV) ± 3.1% 34% 37% 30%[lower-alpha 10]
with Generic Democrat in Maine's 1st congressional district
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Generic
Democrat (D)		 Undecided
Colby College/SocialSphere Feb 10–13, 2020 515 (LV) – 28% 41% 31%[lower-alpha 11]
with Generic Democrat in Maine's 2nd congressional district
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Generic
Democrat (D)		 Undecided
Colby College/SocialSphere Feb 10–13, 2020 493 (LV) – 41% 34% 28%[lower-alpha 12]
gollark: Yes, it uses cryptography to ensure we're blind to all those details.
gollark: Kind of.
gollark: You utter and complete apioform.
gollark: Ethereum is proof of work.
gollark: Wrong.

See also

Notes
  1. Only statewide rating given
  2. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. "Someone else" 8%; "Would not vote" 1%
  4. "Someone else" 3%; "Would not vote" 3%
  5. "Jo Jorgensen" 1%; "Howie Hawkins" 1%
  6. "Someone else" 9%; "Would not vote" 1%
  7. "Someone else" 2%; "Would not vote" 4%
  8. "Someone else" 8%; "Would not vote" 2%
  9. "Someone else" 3%; "Would not vote" 3%
  10. "It depends on who the Democratic candidate is" with 15%; "Undecided at this time" with 15%
  11. "It depends on who the Democratic candidate is" with 15%; "Undecided at this time" with 16%
  12. "It depends on who the Democratic candidate is" with 14%; "Undecided at this time" with 14%

References
  1. Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  2. "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. "Bureau of Corporations, Elections & Commissions, Elections and Voting, Results, 2014 Tabulations". State.me.us. Retrieved 2017-08-25.
  4. Writer, Scott ThistleStaff (2019-09-06). "Gov. Mills allows ranked-choice voting in Maine's presidential elections". Press Herald. Retrieved 2019-09-06.
  5. "Maine Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved March 20, 2020.
  6. "Bureau of Corporations, Elections & Commissions, Elections and Voting, Tabulations June 12, 2018". maine.gov. Maine Secretary of State. Retrieved March 25, 2020.
  7. "Maine Election Results 2020". PBS NewsHour. Retrieved March 26, 2020.
  8. "March 3, 2020 Presidential Primary Election – Democratic". Maine.gov. Maine Department of the Secretary of State. Archived from the original on March 27, 2020. Retrieved March 26, 2020.
  9. "Maine Election Results 2020". PBS NewsHour. Retrieved March 11, 2020.
  10. Shepherd, Michael. "Libertarian presidential candidate sues Maine in bid to loosen ballot access rules". Bangor Daily News. Retrieved 2 August 2020.
  11. "Our 2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved 2020-08-12.
  12. "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
  13. "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
  14. "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
  15. "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  16. "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  17. 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
  18. David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved 2020-06-16.
  19. "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved 7 July 2020.
  20. "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  21. "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
  22. "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  23. "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved 2020-08-03.
  24. "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved 2020-08-06.
  25. "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
  26. "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
  27. "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
  28. "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  29. "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  30. David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved 2020-06-16.
  31. "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved 7 July 2020.
  32. "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  33. "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
  34. "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  35. "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved 2020-08-03.
  36. "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved 2020-08-06.
  37. "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
  38. "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
  39. "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
  40. "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  41. "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  42. David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved 2020-06-16.
  43. "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved 7 July 2020.
  44. "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  45. "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
  46. "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  47. "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved 2020-08-03.
  48. "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved 2020-08-06.
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