2020 United States presidential election in Kentucky

The 2020 United States presidential election in Kentucky is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate.[1] Kentucky voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Kentucky has 8 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]

Main article: 2020 United States presidential election
2020 United States presidential election in Kentucky
November 3, 2020
Turnout%
 
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida Delaware
Running mate Mike Pence Kamala Harris
Incumbent President

Donald Trump
Republican
Elections in Kentucky
Government

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the state's primary elections were postponed until June 23, 2020. By that time, incumbent President Donald Trump of the Republican Party and former Vice President Joe Biden of the Democratic Party had already clinched enough delegates to become the presumptive nominees of their respective parties.

Primary elections

The primary elections were originally scheduled for May 19, 2020. On March 16, they were moved to June 23 due to concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic.[3]

Republican primary

Incumbent President Donald Trump ran unopposed in the Republican primary. The state has 46 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[4]

Democratic primary
This section is an excerpt from 2020 Kentucky Democratic presidential primary[edit]
2020 Kentucky Democratic presidential primary [5]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[6]
Joe Biden 365,283 67.91% 52
Bernie Sanders (withdrawn) 65,055 12.09%
Uncommitted 58,364 10.85% 2
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn) 15,300 2.84%
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn) 9,127 1.70%
Andrew Yang (withdrawn) 7,267 1.35%
Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn) 5,859 1.09%
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn) 5,296 0.98%
Tom Steyer (withdrawn) 2,656 0.49%
Michael Bennet (withdrawn) 2,514 0.47%
Deval Patrick (withdrawn) 1,183 0.22%
Total 537,904 100% 54

General election

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[7] Safe R July 23, 2020
Inside Elections[8] Safe R July 17, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[9] Safe R July 14, 2020
Politico[10] Safe R July 6, 2020
RCP[11] Safe R August 3, 2020
Niskanen[12] Safe R March 24, 2020
CNN[13] Safe R August 3, 2020
The Economist[14] Safe R August 7, 2020
CBS News[15] Likely R August 9, 2020
270towin[16] Safe R August 2, 2020
ABC News[17] Safe R July 31, 2020
NPR[18] Likely R August 3, 2020
NBC News[19] Safe R August 6, 2020

Polling

Aggregate polls

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
Source of poll aggregation Dates administered Dates updated Joe Biden Donald Trump Other/Undecided [lower-alpha 1] Margin
270 to Win June 13, 2020 – June 15, 2020 June 18, 2020 37.0% 57.0% 6% Trump + 20.0
FiveThirtyEight Until June 15, 2020 June 24, 2020 38.9% 55.9% 5.2% Trump + 17.0

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Joe
Biden (D)		 Other Undecided
Quinnipiac University Jul 30 – Aug 3, 2020 909 (RV) ± 3.3% 50% 41% 4%[lower-alpha 3] 5%
Morning Consult Jul 24 – Aug 2, 2020 793 (LV) ± 3.0% 59% 35% 2% 4%
Bluegrass Data Jul 25–29, 2020 3,020 (RV) ± 2.0% 52% 45% – –
Spry Strategies Jul 11–16, 2020 600 (LV) ± 3.7% 60% 34% – 6%
Garin-Hart-Yang/Amy McGrath[upper-alpha 1] Jul 7–12, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 53% 41% – –
Garin-Hart-Yang/Amy McGrath[upper-alpha 2] Jun 2020 –[lower-alpha 4] – 54% 39% – –
Civiqs/Data for Progress Jun 13–15, 2020 898 (RV) ± 3.8% 57% 37% 5%[lower-alpha 5] 1%
Garin-Hart-Yang/Amy McGrath[upper-alpha 3] May, 2020 –[lower-alpha 6] – 57% 36% – –
RMG Research/U.S. Term Limits[lower-alpha 7] May 21–24, 2020 500 (RV) ± 4.5% 53% 36% 6%[lower-alpha 8] 5%
Public Policy Polling May 14–15, 2020 1,104 (V) – 55% 39% 5%[lower-alpha 9] 2%
Bluegrass Data April, 2020 – – 55% 34% – –
Fabrizio Ward/AARP Jul 29–31, 2019 600 ± 4.0% 53% 41% – 4%
Gravis Marketing Jun 11–12, 2019 741 ± 3.6% 57% 37% – 6%
Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Pete
Buttigieg (D)		 Undecided
Gravis Marketing Jun 11–12, 2019 741 ± 3.6% 60% 28% 12%

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Bernie
Sanders (D)		 Undecided
Gravis Marketing Jun 11–12, 2019 741 ± 3.6% 57% 35% 8%

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Elizabeth
Warren (D)		 Undecided
Gravis Marketing Jun 11–12, 2019 741 ± 3.6% 60% 28% 12%
Zogby Analytics Aug 17–23, 2017 402 ± 4.9% 47% 41% 13%
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See also

Notes
  1. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. "Someone else" 3%; "Would not vote" 1%
  4. Not yet released
  5. "someone else" with 5%
  6. Not yet released
  7. U.S. Term Limits is a PAC supporting candidates who support term limits in Congress.
  8. "Some other candidate" with 6%
  9. "Someone else" with 5%
  1. Poll sponsored by Amy McGrath's campaign
  2. Poll sponsored by Amy McGrath's campaign
  3. Poll sponsored by Amy McGrath's campaign

References
  1. Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  2. "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. "Kentucky secretary of state says primary postponed". CNN. March 16, 2020.
  4. "Kentucky Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved June 23, 2020.
  5. "Election Night Reporting". results.enr.clarityelections.com. Kentucky State Board of Elections. Retrieved June 30, 2020.
  6. "Delegate Tracker". interactives.ap.org. Associated Press. Retrieved June 23, 2020.
  7. "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
  8. "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
  9. "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
  10. "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  11. "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  12. 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
  13. David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved 2020-06-16.
  14. "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved 7 July 2020.
  15. "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  16. "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
  17. "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  18. "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved 2020-08-03.
  19. "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved 2020-08-06.
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