2004 United States presidential election in Kentucky

The 2004 United States presidential election in Kentucky took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 8 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Main article: 2004 United States presidential election

2004 United States presidential election in Kentucky

November 2, 2004
Turnout	64.74%[1]
Nominee George W. Bush John Kerry Party Republican Democratic Home state Texas Massachusetts Running mate Dick Cheney John Edwards Electoral vote 8 0 Popular vote 1,069,439 712,733 Percentage 59.55% 39.69%
County Results Bush   50-60%   60-70%   70-80%   80-90% Kerry   40-50%   50-60%   60-70%
President before election George W. Bush Republican Elected President George W. Bush Republican

Kentucky was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 19.86% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or otherwise considered it as a safe red state. Bush widened his margin of victory since his victory here in 2000 against Al Gore, who used to be senator from neighboring Tennessee by 4.73%. He made his biggest progress in the eastern part of the state, and at the border with Virginia.

Primaries

• 2004 Democratic Party presidential primaries

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[2]

1. D.C. Political Report: Solid Republican
2. Associated Press: Solid Bush
3. CNN: Bush
4. Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
5. Newsweek: Solid Bush
6. New York Times: Solid Bush
7. Rasmussen Reports: Bush
8. Research 2000: Solid Bush
9. Washington Post: Bush
10. Washington Times: Solid Bush
11. Zogby International: Bush
12. Washington Dispatch: Bush

Polling

Bush won every single pre-election poll, and won each by a double-digit margin of victory and with at least 52% of the vote. The final 3 poll averaged Bush leading 57% to 38%.[3]

Fundraising

Bush raised $2,398,982.[4] Kerry raised $1,433,748.[5]

Advertising and visits

Neither campaign advertised or visited this state during the fall campaign.[6][7]

Results

President George W. Bush easily defeated Massachusetts Senator John F. Kerry in Kentucky, capturing the state's 8 electoral votes. Bush did well throughout the state. Kerry only won a handful of counties. Kerry performed decently in coal country in east Kentucky but Kerry fared poorly in other rural parts of the state. Kerry did win Jefferson County, the most populous county in the state and home of Louisville. However this was not enough to overcome Bush's lead. This race was not close, whereas the concurrent senate race was very tight. As of the 2016 presidential election, this is the last election in which Fayette County voted for the Republican candidate and the last election in which Knott County, Floyd County, Breathitt County, Bath County, Pike County, Carter County, and Magoffin County voted for the Democratic candidate.

United States presidential election in Kentucky, 2004
Party		Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Electoral votes
	Republican	George W. Bush	1,069,439	59.55%	8
	Democratic	John Kerry	712,733	39.69%	0
	Reform	Ralph Nader	8,856	0.49%	0
	Libertarian	Michael Badnarik	2,619	0.15%	0
	Constitution	Michael Peroutka	2,213	0.12%	0
Totals			1,795,860	100.00%	8
Voter turnout (Voting age population)					57.5%

Results breakdown

By county

County	Kerry%	Kerry#	Bush%	Bush#	Others%	Others#
Adair	23.7%	1,764	75.6%	5,628	0.7%	55
Allen	26.8%	1,923	72.6%	5,202	0.5%	38
Anderson	32.7%	3,141	66.3%	6,363	0.9%	87
Ballard	42.1%	1,759	57.2%	2,389	0.7%	29
Barren	32.3%	5,216	67.1%	10,822	0.6%	102
Bath	53.0%	2,608	46.1%	2,269	0.9%	42
Bell	38.3%	4,210	61.1%	6,722	0.6%	70
Boone	27.5%	12,391	71.7%	32,329	0.8%	362
Bourbon	38.9%	3,198	60.3%	4,953	0.8%	66
Boyd	46.5%	10,132	52.8%	11,501	0.7%	144
Boyle	37.2%	4,646	62.2%	7,764	0.6%	80
Bracken	33.6%	1,213	65.5%	2,363	0.9%	34
Breathitt	56.0%	3,327	42.8%	2,542	1.3%	75
Breckinridge	33.8%	2,884	65.5%	5,580	0.7%	56
Bullitt	31.6%	9,043	67.9%	19,433	0.5%	151
Butler	25.7%	1,436	73.7%	4,109	0.6%	33
Caldwell	35.4%	2,245	64.0%	4,066	0.6%	38
Calloway	37.8%	5,728	61.4%	9,293	0.8%	124
Campbell	35.5%	14,253	63.6%	25,540	1.0%	382
Carlisle	38.7%	1,102	60.9%	1,734	0.3%	9
Carroll	43.3%	1,688	55.8%	2,175	0.9%	34
Carter	50.2%	5,577	48.8%	5,422	1.1%	118
Casey	18.6%	1,174	80.8%	5,109	0.6%	38
Christian	33.2%	6,970	66.3%	13,935	0.5%	110
Clark	37.0%	5,661	62.3%	9,540	0.8%	116
Clay	24.7%	1,901	74.5%	5,726	0.8%	60
Clinton	21.9%	952	77.4%	3,369	0.7%	31
Crittenden	34.3%	1,438	65.1%	2,726	0.6%	26
Cumberland	26.2%	848	72.7%	2,356	1.1%	35
Daviess	38.1%	15,788	61.2%	25,372	0.8%	323
Edmonson	33.9%	1,856	65.6%	3,595	0.5%	30
Elliott	69.8%	2,064	29.5%	871	0.7%	22
Estill	34.2%	1,907	65.2%	3,633	0.6%	35
Fayette	46.2%	57,994	52.9%	66,406	0.9%	1,176
Fleming	38.8%	2,406	60.4%	3,749	0.8%	48
Floyd	62.2%	11,132	37.0%	6,612	0.8%	141
Franklin	48.1%	11,620	50.9%	12,281	1.0%	232
Fulton	46.4%	1,340	52.8%	1,527	0.8%	23
Gallatin	38.7%	1,188	60.8%	1,869	0.5%	16
Garrard	27.7%	1,841	71.9%	4,784	0.5%	33
Grant	31.9%	2,818	67.4%	5,951	0.6%	55
Graves	38.2%	6,206	61.0%	9,903	0.7%	120
Grayson	28.6%	2,905	70.7%	7,170	0.7%	68
Green	25.2%	1,312	74.3%	3,866	0.5%	28
Greenup	46.4%	7,630	52.9%	8,696	0.7%	109
Hancock	42.4%	1,709	56.7%	2,286	0.8%	34
Hardin	31.6%	11,507	67.6%	24,627	0.8%	307
Harlan	39.1%	4,332	60.2%	6,659	0.7%	79
Harrison	36.3%	2,807	62.8%	4,855	0.9%	69
Hart	36.4%	2,470	62.9%	4,269	0.7%	45
Henderson	43.3%	8,101	56.0%	10,467	0.7%	133
Henry	36.4%	2,366	63.0%	4,094	0.6%	39
Hickman	39.5%	926	59.6%	1,395	0.9%	21
Hopkins	34.1%	6,420	65.4%	12,314	0.6%	109
Jackson	14.9%	769	84.4%	4,369	0.8%	40
Jefferson	50.4%	170,158	48.8%	164,566	0.8%	2,626
Jessamine	29.5%	5,476	69.8%	12,972	0.7%	132
Johnson	35.3%	3,288	63.8%	5,940	0.8%	76
Kenton	34.0%	22,834	65.1%	43,664	0.9%	625
Knott	63.4%	4,685	35.8%	2,648	0.8%	61
Knox	31.8%	3,822	67.4%	8,108	0.8%	98
LaRue	30.5%	1,823	68.9%	4,111	0.6%	34
Laurel	23.8%	5,297	75.5%	16,819	0.7%	148
Lawrence	41.5%	2,705	57.7%	3,755	0.8%	53
Lee	30.1%	878	69.1%	2,018	0.8%	24
Leslie	25.5%	1,266	73.8%	3,661	0.7%	37
Letcher	46.2%	4,192	53.0%	4,801	0.8%	72
Lewis	30.4%	1,667	68.9%	3,778	0.7%	39
Lincoln	31.5%	2,796	67.7%	5,996	0.8%	71
Livingston	42.6%	2,007	56.8%	2,675	0.5%	24
Logan	35.4%	3,768	64.0%	6,815	0.6%	61
Lyon	45.1%	1,769	54.3%	2,132	0.6%	24
McCracken	38.1%	11,361	61.1%	18,218	0.7%	218
McCreary	26.9%	1,530	72.4%	4,121	0.7%	42
McLean	41.1%	1,823	58.3%	2,584	0.6%	28
Madison	37.5%	11,525	61.6%	18,922	0.8%	260
Magoffin	49.7%	2,843	49.6%	2,836	0.7%	39
Marion	46.2%	3,399	53.1%	3,905	0.7%	50
Marshall	41.1%	6,383	58.3%	9,049	0.6%	89
Martin	33.1%	1,504	66.0%	2,996	0.9%	39
Mason	37.3%	2,644	61.9%	4,381	0.8%	54
Meade	34.0%	3,724	65.3%	7,152	0.7%	75
Menifee	50.8%	1,284	48.1%	1,215	1.1%	29
Mercer	32.1%	3,224	67.3%	6,745	0.6%	59
Metcalfe	35.4%	1,472	63.6%	2,645	1.0%	40
Monroe	19.8%	1,158	79.7%	4,657	0.5%	28
Montgomery	44.0%	4,506	55.2%	5,647	0.8%	77
Morgan	48.0%	2,532	50.9%	2,682	1.1%	58
Muhlenberg	49.2%	6,636	50.1%	6,749	0.7%	94
Nelson	38.7%	6,524	60.3%	10,161	0.9%	159
Nicholas	43.5%	1,332	55.6%	1,700	0.9%	27
Ohio	36.2%	3,627	62.9%	6,311	0.9%	90
Oldham	29.8%	8,080	69.3%	18,801	0.9%	251
Owen	34.1%	1,615	65.0%	3,084	0.9%	42
Owsley	21.5%	430	77.9%	1,558	0.6%	11
Pendleton	32.2%	1,940	67.1%	4,045	0.7%	40
Perry	46.3%	5,400	53.1%	6,187	0.6%	68
Pike	52.3%	14,002	47.1%	12,611	0.6%	157
Powell	45.3%	2,249	54.2%	2,687	0.5%	24
Pulaski	22.8%	5,829	76.6%	19,535	0.6%	152
Robertson	37.9%	413	61.5%	670	0.6%	7
Rockcastle	21.4%	1,320	77.9%	4,804	0.7%	42
Rowan	52.3%	4,556	46.7%	4,063	1.0%	87
Russell	22.7%	1,772	76.8%	6,009	0.5%	40
Scott	37.1%	6,325	62.2%	10,600	0.7%	125
Shelby	32.3%	5,277	66.9%	10,909	0.8%	127
Simpson	38.8%	2,730	60.7%	4,273	0.6%	40
Spencer	28.9%	1,970	70.6%	4,816	0.5%	36
Taylor	28.9%	2,979	70.4%	7,247	0.7%	69
Todd	31.4%	1,491	68.2%	3,242	0.4%	21
Trigg	33.5%	2,046	65.8%	4,023	0.7%	42
Trimble	37.7%	1,428	61.5%	2,332	0.8%	30
Union	40.1%	2,398	59.1%	3,534	0.8%	45
Warren	36.1%	14,326	63.2%	25,100	0.7%	285
Washington	32.9%	1,724	66.4%	3,479	0.6%	33
Wayne	34.0%	2,616	65.4%	5,027	0.5%	42
Webster	41.5%	2,304	57.8%	3,207	0.6%	36
Whitley	29.2%	3,985	70.1%	9,559	0.6%	85
Wolfe	55.3%	1,744	43.9%	1,385	0.8%	26
Woodford	38.9%	4,480	60.3%	6,937	0.7%	85

By congressional district

Bush won 5 of 6 congressional districts.

District	Bush	Kerry	Representative
1st	63%	36%	Ed Whitfield
2nd	65%	34%	Ron Lewis
3rd	49%	51%	Anne Northup
4th	63%	36%	Geoff Davis
5th	61%	39%	Hal Rogers
6th	58%	41%	Ben Chandler

Electors

Main article: List of 2004 United States presidential electors

Technically the voters of Kentucky cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Kentucky is allocated 8 electors because it has 6 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 8 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 8 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 8 were pledged to Bush/Cheney:

1. Rachel N. McCubbin
2. Keith A. Hall
3. Carolyn Cole
4. Martha G. Prewitt
5. Donald E. Girdler
6. Constance M. Gray
7. Frank Schwendeman
8. Carla T. Bartleman

References

1. https://elect.ky.gov/SiteCollectionDocuments/Election%20Statistics/turnout/2001-2005/04gen.pdf
2. http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW%5B%5D
3. http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?fips=21
4. http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/george_w_bush.asp?cycle=04
5. http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/john_f_kerry.asp?cycle=04
6. http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/campaign.ads/
7. http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/tracking/10.25.html