2016 United States Senate election in Kentucky

The 2016 United States Senate election in Kentucky was held November 8, 2016 to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Kentucky, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primaries were held May 17.

2016 United States Senate election in Kentucky
November 8, 2016
 
Nominee Rand Paul Jim Gray
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 1,090,177 813,246
Percentage 57.3% 42.7%
County Results

Paul:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%

Gray:      50–60%      70–80%
U.S. senator before election

Rand Paul
Republican

 Elected U.S. Senator

Rand Paul
Republican

Elections in Kentucky
Government

Incumbent Republican Senator Rand Paul filed for re-election in December 2015, and Mayor Jim Gray of Lexington filed to run against Paul for the Senate in late January 2016. In the general election, Paul defeated Gray by around 15 points.

Background

If Paul had become the Republican presidential (or vice-presidential) nominee, state law would have prohibited him from simultaneously running for re-election.[1] In March 2014, the Republican-controlled Kentucky Senate passed a bill that would allow Paul to run for both offices, but the Democratic-controlled Kentucky House of Representatives declined to take it up.[2][3][4] Paul spent his own campaign money in the 2014 legislative elections, helping Republican candidates for the State House in the hopes of flipping the chamber, thus allowing the legislature to pass the bill (Democratic Governor Steve Beshear's veto could have been overridden with a simple majority).[5][6] However, the Democrats retained their 54-46 majority in the State House.[7][8][9]

Paul was running for both president and re-election, and considered several options to get around the law preventing him from appearing twice on the ballot, but he dropped his presidential bid to focus on re-election to the Senate on February 3, 2016.[10] His supporters said the law does not apply to federal offices and suggested changing the May Kentucky presidential primaries to March caucuses would allow Paul to run for re-election and continue to seek the presidential nomination.[11] However, this option would have only worked until the presidential primaries were over, as he would still have had to appear on the ballot twice in November if he had won the Republican presidential nomination. Other options that were open to him included running for both offices and leaving it to Democratic Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes to remove him from the ballot; attempting to replace Grimes in the 2015 elections with a Republican Secretary of State who would not enforce the law; filing a lawsuit against the law; and running for president in every state except for Kentucky, where he could have run for re-election and hoped to win the presidency without Kentucky's electoral college votes.[12]

In a letter to Kentucky Republicans in February 2015, Paul asked them to allow him the same option afforded to Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan, who ran for re-election at the same time as Vice President on Mitt Romney's ticket.[13] David M. Drucker of The Washington Examiner reported in the same month that Kentucky Republican leaders were concerned that Paul's actions could mean that if he wins the Republican presidential nomination and is renominated for the Senate, he could either be disqualified from the Senate ballot and the state party blocked from replacing him, which would hand the seat to the Democrats, or he could be disqualified from the presidential ballot, which would see the Democratic presidential nominee pick up Kentucky's 8 electoral college votes.[14]

In August 2015, the central committee of the Kentucky Republican Party voted to hold a caucus in 2016, allowing Paul to simultaneously run for re-nomination for his seat and the 2016 Republican presidential nomination.[15] State law would still bar Paul from appearing twice on the ballot in the general election.[15] However, on February 3, 2016, Rand Paul dropped out of the 2016 presidential campaign, allowing him to focus on his reelection bid.

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Endorsements
Rand Paul
Governors
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Statewide politicians
Individuals
  • Ben Carson, neurosurgeon and former 2016 presidential candidate[31]
  • Carly Fiorina, businesswoman, former 2016 presidential candidate and former 2016 vice presidential candidate[32]
  • Austin Petersen, commentator, 2016 Libertarian presidential candidate and 2018 US Senate Candidate in Missouri as a Republican[33]
Organizations

Results
Republican primary results[36]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Rand Paul (Incumbent) 169,180 84.79%
Republican James Gould 16,611 8.33%
Republican Stephen Slaughter 13,728 6.88%
Total votes 199,519 100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Endorsements
Jim Gray
Organizations
Sellus Wilder
Organizations

Results
Democratic primary results[36]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Jim Gray 240,613 58.73%
Democratic Sellus Wilder 52,728 12.87%
Democratic Ron Leach 39,026 9.53%
Democratic Tom Recktenwald 21,910 5.35%
Democratic Grant Short 21,558 5.26%
Democratic Jeff Kender 20,239 4.94%
Democratic Rory Houlihan 13,585 3.32%
Total votes 409,659 100.00%

General election

Debates
Dates Location Paul Gray Link
October 31, 2016 Lexington, Kentucky Participant Participant Full debate - C-SPAN

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[59] Safe R September 9, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[60] Safe R September 19, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[61] Safe R September 2, 2016
Daily Kos[62] Safe R September 16, 2016
Real Clear Politics[63] Likely R September 15, 2016

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Rand
Paul (R)		 Jim
Gray (D)		 Undecided
SurveyMonkey November 1–7, 2016 1,315 ± 4.6% 50% 46% 4%
SurveyMonkey October 31–November 6, 2016 1,155 ± 4.6% 51% 46% 3%
SurveyMonkey October 28–November 3, 2016 843 ± 4.6% 52% 45% 3%
SurveyMonkey October 27–November 2, 2016 635 ± 4.6% 50% 46% 4%
SurveyMonkey October 26–November 1, 2016 499 ± 4.6% 51% 44% 5%
SurveyMonkey October 25–31, 2016 424 ± 4.6% 52% 46% 2%
Western Kentucky University October 25–30, 2016 602 ± 4.0% 55% 39% 6%
RunSwitch Public Relations (R) October 26–28, 2016 811 ± 3.4% 52% 42% 6%
Cofounder Pulse Poll October 26–28, 2016 1,016 ± 3.8% 35% 28% 38%
Cofounder Pulse Poll October 12–15, 2016 816 ± 3.4% 33% 27% 40%
Cofounder Pulse Poll September 14–16, 2016 834 ± 3.2% 33% 25% 42%
Cofounder Pulse Poll August 2–4, 2016 508 ± 3.6% 59% 41% 0%
Harper Polling July 31–August 1, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 50% 38% 13%
Cofounder Pulse Poll March 30–April 1, 2016 758 ± 3.0% 28% 26% 47%

Results
United States Senate election in Kentucky, 2016 [64]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Republican Rand Paul (incumbent) 1,090,177 57.27% +1.58%
Democratic Jim Gray 813,246 42.73% -1.53%
n/a Write-ins 42 0.00% N/A
Total votes '1,903,465' '100.0%' N/A
Republican hold
gollark: Probably.
gollark: Assuming I have free slots, which happens rarely.
gollark: All aeons, in theory.
gollark: I wonder whether some sort of modified external trade hub with more freedom to offer on multiple things would work better.
gollark: I've decided that it is probably impossible without days of waiting.

References
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  4. Silverleib, Alan (April 17, 2014). "Dead for now: Kentucky bill allowing twin Paul 2016 runs". www.cnn.com. CNN. Retrieved April 17, 2014.
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  32. Archived September 16, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
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Official campaign websites (Archived)
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