2018 Tennessee gubernatorial election

The 2018 Tennessee gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the next Governor of Tennessee. The primaries took place on August 2, with Republican Bill Lee and Democrat Karl Dean winning their respective party nominations.[1]

2018 Tennessee gubernatorial election

November 6, 2018

Nominee Bill Lee Karl Dean Party Republican Democratic Popular vote 1,336,106 864,863 Percentage 59.6% 38.6%

County results Lee:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90% Dean:      50–60%      60–70%

Governor before election Bill Haslam Republican Elected Governor Bill Lee Republican

Incumbent Republican Governor Bill Haslam was term-limited and is prohibited by the Constitution of Tennessee from seeking a third consecutive term. As of February 2019, the election had the largest number of candidates (28) in a statewide election in United States history; the previous record was the 2016 United States presidential election in Colorado. This large surge in candidates was mostly due to the Libertarian Party of Tennessee's protest of the state's party affiliation and ballot access laws.[2]

Lee was elected with nearly 60% of the vote. This is the first time since 1982 that a candidate from the incumbent U.S. President's party was elected Governor of Tennessee.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominated

• Bill Lee, businessman[3]

Eliminated in primary

• Diane Black, U.S. Representative[4]
• Randy Boyd, former Tennessee cabinet official[5]
• Beth Harwell, Speaker of the Tennessee House of Representatives[6]
• Basil Marceaux, perennial candidate[7]
• Kay White, realtor[8]

Withdrawn

• Mae Beavers, former state senator[9][10] (unsuccessfully ran for Wilson County Mayor)[11]
• Mark Green, state senator (successfully ran in Tennessee's 7th congressional district)[12]

Declined

• Marsha Blackburn, U.S. Representative (successfully ran for the U.S. Senate)[13][14]
• Tim Burchett, Mayor of Knox County (successfully ran in Tennessee's 2nd congressional district)[15][16][17]
• Joe Carr, former state representative, perennial candidate[18][19]
• Bob Corker, U.S. Senator[20][21][22]
• Stephen Fincher, former U.S. Representative[20][23]
• Alberto Gonzales, dean of the Belmont University School of Law and former U.S. Attorney General
• Bill Hagerty, United States Ambassador to Japan and former Tennessee cabinet official[19]
• Tre Hargett, Tennessee Secretary of State[24]
• Rob Mitchell, Rutherford County property assessor[25][26]
• Mark Norris, Majority Leader of the Tennessee Senate, appointed as judge to the United States District Court for the Western District of Tennessee[27][19][28]
• Andy Ogles, director of Tennessee chapter of Americans for Prosperity[19] (successfully ran for Mayor of Maury County)[29]
• Ron Ramsey, former Lieutenant Governor of Tennessee and candidate for Governor of Tennessee in 2010[20][30]

Endorsements

Beth Harwell

Representative Harry Brooks, Tennessee House of Representatives, House Education Administration and Planning Committee Chair Representative Dale Carr, Tennessee House of Representatives, House Local Government Subcommittee Chair Representative Mike Carter, Tennessee House of Representatives, House Civil Justice Subcommittee Chair Representative Jim Coley, Tennessee House of Representatives Representative Jeremy Faison, Tennessee House of Representatives, House Government Operations Committee Chair Representative Andrew Farmer, Tennessee House of Representatives, House Civil Justice Committee Chair Representative John Forgety, Tennessee House of Representatives, House Education Instruction and Programs Committee Chair Representative Patsy Hazlewood, Tennessee House of Representatives Representative Gary Hicks, Tennessee House of Representatives Representative John Holsclaw Jr., Tennessee House of Representatives, House Business and Utilities Subcommittee Chair Representative Dan Howell, Tennessee House of Representatives, Joint Judiciary and Government Committee Chair, House Local Government Committee Vice-Chair Representative Curtis Johnson, Tennessee House of Representatives, House Speaker Pro Tempore Representative Pat Marsh, Tennessee House of Representatives, House Business and Utilities Committee Chair Representative Steve McDaniel, Tennessee House of Representatives, House Rules Committee Chair, House Ethics Committee Chair, House Finance, Ways, and Means Study Subcommittee Chair Representative Tim Rudd, Tennessee House of Representatives Representative Charles Sargent, Tennessee House of Representatives, Finance, Ways, and Means Committee Chair Representative Mike Sparks, Tennessee House of Representatives, House Calendar and Rules Committee Vice-Chair Representative Rick Tillis, Tennessee House of Representatives Representative Tim Wirgau, Tennessee House of Representatives, House Local Government Committee Chair Senator Frank Niceley, Tennessee State Senate, Senate Energy, Agriculture, and Natural Resources 1st Vice-Chair, Senate Transportation and Safety Committee 2nd Vice-Chair Tennessee Education Association[31] Tennessee State Employees Association[31] Tennessee Professional Fire Fighters Association[32]

Diane Black

Mike Pence, 48th Vice President of the United States[33] Stephen Fincher, former U.S. representative[23] Ron Ramsey, former Lieutenant Governor of Tennessee[34] Rick Santorum, former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania[35] Steve Scalise, U.S. Representative and House Majority Whip (R-LA)[36] Jordan Sekulow, radio talk show host and executive director of the American Center for Law and Justice[37] Carol M. Swain, former Vanderbilt professor and conservative commentator[38] Tennessee Right to Life[39] National Right to Life[40] Susan B. Anthony List[41] National Rifle Association[42] American Conservative Union[43] Students For Trump[44] Family Research Council[45]

Randy Boyd

Mike Huckabee, former Arkansas governor and Presidential candidate in 2008 and 2016[46] Joe Boyd Liggett, mayor of Marshall County[47] Jake Bynum, mayor of Weakley County[47] Mike Creasy, mayor of Decatur County[47] J. Michael Cross, Fentress County executive[47] Richard Daniel, Pickett County executive[47] Ben Danner, Overton County executive[47] Jim Durrett, mayor of Montgomery County[48] Brent Greer, mayor of Henry County[47] Denny Johnson, mayor of Lake County[47] Shaun Lawson, mayor of Hickman County[47] Mark Luttrell, mayor of Shelby County[49] Kenny McBride, mayor of Carroll County[47] Benny McGuire, mayor of Obion County[47] Bill Newman, mayor of Lincoln County[47] Denny Robinson, White County executive[47] Richard Stewart, mayor of Franklin County[47] Sloan Stewart, Lynchburg/Moore County Metro executive[47] Skip Taylor, mayor of Fayette County[47] Jessie Wallace, Humphreys County executive[47] Bill Webb, mayor of Lewis County[47] T.R. Williams, Lawrence County executive[47] Tom Witherspoon, mayor of Gibson County[47] Chris Young, mayor of Dyer County[47]

Bill Lee

U.S. Representatives Zach Wamp, Former U.S. Representative (R-TN)[50] State-level Officials Andy Holt, state representative[51] Sheila Butt, state representative[52] Jason Zachary, state representative[53] Mae Beavers, former state senator, former gubernatorial candidate[54] Joe Carr, former State Representative[55] Notable Individuals Michael W. Smith, Christian Singer[56][57] Steven Curtis Chapman, Christian Singer[58] Darrell Waltrip, American motorsports analyst and former NASCAR driver[58] Mike Fisher, Former center for the Nashville Predators and husband of singer Carrie Underwood[58] Ricky Skaggs, Country Music Singer[59] Scott Hamilton, American Figure Skater and Olympic Gold Medalist[60] Newspapers Chattanooga Free Press[61] Johnson City Press[62] Dunlap News[63]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Diane Black	Randy Boyd	Beth Harwell	Bill Lee	Other	Undecided
JMC Analytics	July 18–21, 2018	500	± 4.4%	19%	20%	16%	26%	1%[64]	17%
Emerson College	July 11–14, 2018	266	± 6.4%	27%	22%	14%	19%	3%	14%
Data Orbital	June 27–30, 2018	700	± 3.7%	24%	23%	10%	19%	–	24%
Triton Polling & Research (R)	June 25–28, 2018	1,040	± 3.1%	27%	33%	7%	20%	–	13%
OnMessage Inc. (R-Black)	May 14–17, 2018	600	± 4.0%	41%	28%	8%	9%	–	15%
Grassroots Targeting (R-Black)	May 4–6, 2018	800	–	41%	26%	6%	11%	–	15%
OnMessage Inc. (R-Black)	April 2018	–	–	33%	30%	5%	13%	–	–
OnMessage Inc. (R-Black)	March 2018	–	–	31%	31%	10%	10%	–	–
TargetPoint/GQR	March 7–14, 2018	390	± 5.0%	25%	20%	6%	7%	2%[65]	37%
North Star Onion Research (R-Lee)	February 5–11, 2018	600	± 4.0%	22%	25%	4%	18%	–	30%
Triton Polling & Research (R)	December 12–18, 2017	1,028	± 3.1%	22%	12%	6%	4%	4%[66]	53%

Results

County results

Republican primary results[67]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Bill Lee	291,414	36.75
	Republican	Randy Boyd	193,054	24.35
	Republican	Diane Black	182,457	23.01
	Republican	Beth Harwell	121,484	15.32
	Republican	Kay White	3,215	0.41
	Republican	Basil Marceaux	1,264	0.16
Total votes			792,888	100.0

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominated

• Karl Dean, former Mayor of Nashville, 2007–2015[68]

Eliminated in primary

• Craig Fitzhugh, Minority Leader of the Tennessee House of Representatives[69]
• Mezianne Vale Payne, retiree[70]

Declined

• Andy Berke, Mayor of Chattanooga and former state senator[19]
• Bill Freeman, businessman and candidate for Mayor of Nashville in 2015[71][72]

Endorsements

Karl Dean

Federal officials Jim Cooper, U.S. Representative (D-TN)[73] Steve Cohen, U.S. Representative (D-TN)[74] Bob Clement, former U.S Representative (D-TN) Lincoln Davis, former U.S. Representative (D-TN) Labor unions Memphis AFSCME Local 1733 Tennessee Pipe Trades; Mid-South Carpenters Regional Council Road Sprinkler Fitters U.A. Local Union No. 66 Local Division of the International Brotherhood of Teamsters

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Karl Dean	Craig Fitzhugh	Other	Undecided
Emerson College	July 11–14, 2018	206	± 7.3%	44%	14%	9%	33%
TargetPoint/GQR	March 7–14, 2018	288	± 5.8%	41%	11%	–	44%

Results

Primary results by county:

Dean

•   Dean—40–50%
•   Dean—50–60%
•   Dean—60–70%
•   Dean—70–80%
•   Dean—80–90%
•   Dean—>90%

Fitzhugh

•   Fitzhugh—40–50%
•   Fitzhugh—50–60%
•   Fitzhugh—70–80%
•   Fitzhugh—80–90%
•   Fitzhugh—>90%

Democratic primary results[75]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Karl Dean	280,553	75.14
	Democratic	Craig Fitzhugh	72,553	23.42
	Democratic	Mezianne Vale Payne	20,284	5.44
Total votes			373,390	100.0

Independents

Candidates

• Mark CoonRippy Brown (Independent)[lower-alpha 1][76]
• Sherry L. Clark (Libertarian)[lower-alpha 1][76]
• Justin Cornett (Libertarian)[lower-alpha 1][76]
• Gabriel Fancher (Libertarian)[lower-alpha 1][76]
• Sean Bruce Fleming (Libertarian)[lower-alpha 1][76]
• William Andrew Helmstetter (Libertarian)[lower-alpha 1][76]
• Cory King (Libertarian)[lower-alpha 1][76]
• Matthew Koch (Libertarian)[lower-alpha 1][76]
• Yvonne Neubert (Green)[lower-alpha 1]
• Alfred Shawn Rapoza (Libertarian)[lower-alpha 1][76]
• Chad Riden, comedian (Independent)[76]
• Heather Scott (Libertarian)[lower-alpha 1][76]
• George Blackwell Smith IV (Libertarian)[lower-alpha 1][76]
• Jeremy Allen Stephenson (Libertarian)[lower-alpha 1][76]
• Tracy Yaste Tisdale (Libertarian)[lower-alpha 1][76]
• Mike Toews (Libertarian)[lower-alpha 1][76]
• Rick Tyler, candidate for TN-03 in 2016[7]
• Vinnie Vineyard (Funkmaster V from Wrestling With Ghosts) [76] (Libertarian)[lower-alpha 1]
• Jaron D. Weidner (Libertarian)[lower-alpha 1][76]
• Joe B. Wilmoth (Independent)[76]
• Patrick Whitlock (Independent)

Notes

1. Libertarian Party and Green Party do not have ballot access. Appears on ballot as "Independent."[77]

General election

Debates

• Complete video of debate, October 2, 2018
• Complete video of debate, October 12, 2018

Endorsements

Bill Lee (R)

U.S. Executive Branch officials Donald Trump, President of the United States[78] Mike Pence, Vice President of the United States[79] U.S. Senators Lamar Alexander, U.S. Senator (R-TN)[80] U.S. Representatives Diane Black, U.S. Representative (R-TN) and Republican Candidate for Governor in 2018[81] Marsha Blackburn, U.S. Representative (R-TN) and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018[82] Zach Wamp, Former U.S. Representative (R-TN)[50] State-level Officials Bill Haslam, Governor of Tennessee[83] Andy Holt, state representative[51] Sheila Butt, state representative[52] Jay Reedy, state representative[84] Jason Zachary, state representative[53] Mae Beavers, former state senator, former gubernatorial candidate[54] Joe Carr, former State Representative[55] Notable Individuals Michael W. Smith, Christian Singer[56][57] Steven Curtis Chapman, Christian Singer[58] Darrell Waltrip, American motorsports analyst and former NASCAR driver[58] Mike Fisher, Former center for the Nashville Predators and husband of singer Carrie Underwood[58] Ricky Skaggs, Country Music Singer[59] Scott Hamilton, American Figure Skater and Olympic Gold Medalist[60] Randy Boyd, Businessman and Republican Candidate for Governor in 2018[85] Organizations Tennessee Professional Fire Fighters Association[86] National Rifle Association[87] Tennessee Police Benevolent Association[88] Newspapers Dunlap News[63] Chattanooga Free Press[89] Knoxville News Sentinel[90]

Karl Dean (D)

U.S. Representatives Jim Cooper, U.S. Representative (D-TN)[73] Steve Cohen, U.S. Representative (D-TN)[74] Bob Clement, former U.S Representative (D-TN) Lincoln Davis, former U.S. Representative (D-TN) State officials Terry McAuliffe, 72nd Governor of Virginia[91] Martin O'Malley, 61st Governor of Maryland[92] Local officials Craig Fitzhugh, state representative and former candidate[93] Labor unions Memphis AFSCME Local 1733 Tennessee Pipe Trades; Mid-South Carpenters Regional Council Road Sprinkler Fitters U.A. Local Union No. 66 Local Division of the International Brotherhood of Teamsters

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[94]	Likely R	October 26, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[95]	Safe R	November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[96]	Safe R	November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[97]	Likely R	November 5, 2018
Daily Kos[98]	Safe R	November 5, 2018
Fox News[99][lower-alpha 1]	Likely R	November 5, 2018
Politico[100]	Likely R	November 5, 2018
Governing[101]	Likely R	November 5, 2018
The Washington Post[102]	Likely R	November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[103]	Solid R	November 5, 2018

Notes

1. The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bill Lee (R)	Karl Dean (D)	Other	Undecided
Targoz Market Research	October 28–31, 2018	480	–	53%	44%	–	2%
Emerson College	October 28–30, 2018	621	± 4.0%	54%	41%	2%	3%
Fox News	October 27–30, 2018	718 LV	± 3.5%	54%	37%	2%	7%
		850 RV	± 3.0%	52%	36%	2%	9%
Vox Populi Polling	October 27–29, 2018	780	± 3.5%	56%	44%	–	–
CNN/SSRS	October 24–29, 2018	764 LV	± 4.3%	52%	42%	0%	4%
		871 RV	± 4.0%	52%	41%	0%	5%
East Tennessee State University	October 22–29, 2018	495	± 4.4%	48%	36%	5%	9%
Cygnal (R)	October 26–27, 2018	497	± 4.4%	59%	36%	3%	2%
Marist College	October 23–27, 2018	471 LV	± 5.7%	57%	40%	1%	3%
		764 RV	± 4.4%	56%	39%	1%	4%
Vanderbilt University/SSRS	October 8–13, 2018	800	± 4.9%	48%	37%	0%	12%
Targoz Market Research	October 9–12, 2018	558 LV	–	56%	44%	–	–
		801 RV	–	49%	39%	–	12%
NYT Upshot/Siena College	October 8–11, 2018	593	± 4.2%	59%	33%	–	8%
Fox News	September 29 – October 2, 2018	666 LV	± 3.5%	53%	36%	1%	10%
		806 RV	± 3.5%	52%	35%	1%	10%
SurveyMonkey	September 9–24, 2018	1,609	± 3.3%	46%	35%	–	19%
Vox Populi Polling	September 16–18, 2018	567	± 4.1%	55%	45%	–	–
CNN/SSRS	September 11–15, 2018	723 LV	± 4.3%	52%	43%	0%	3%
		852 RV	± 3.9%	49%	43%	0%	5%
Triton Polling & Research (R)	September 10–12, 2018	1,038	± 3.0%	54%	37%	–	9%
Fox News	September 8–11, 2018	686 LV	± 3.5%	55%	35%	1%	10%
		809 RV	± 3.5%	52%	34%	2%	12%
Marist College	August 25–28, 2018	538 LV	± 5.1%	53%	40%	1%	7%
		730 RV	± 4.5%	51%	39%	1%	9%
Gravis Marketing	August 9–11, 2018	620	± 3.9%	51%	40%	–	9%
Triton Polling & Research (R)	January 21–24, 2018	1,003	± 3.1%	38%	34%	–	28%

Results

Tennessee gubernatorial election, 2018[104]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	Republican	Bill Lee	1,336,106	59.56%	-10.75%
	Democratic	Karl Dean	864,863	38.55%	+15.71%
	Independent	Other candidates	42,314	1.89%	N/A
	Write-in		11	0.00%	0.00%
Total votes			2,243,294	100.0%	N/A
	Republican hold

References

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33. Mike Pence. ".@DianeBlackTN is running for Governor of TN & a strong supporter of #MAGA agenda of tax cuts, military $$ & a champion of right to life policies. There are great candidates running but Diane has been my friend for years, we served together in the House, & she has my support!". Twitter.
34. Hayes, Hank (August 14, 2017). "Ramsey gets behind Black's gubernatorial bid". Kingsport Times-News. Retrieved August 14, 2017.
35. Diane Black. "Honored to receive the endorsement of @RickSantorum, a leader who is not afraid to fight for conservative values. Tennessee stood behind Rick in his 2012 race for President, and I'm proud to have him behind me in my race for Governor. #TeamBlack". Twitter.
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38. Diane Black. "Honored to have the endorsement of Dr. Swain, and don't forget to vote early starting tomorrow!". Twitter.
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46. Buie, Jordan (June 22, 2018). "Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee endorses Randy Boyd". The Tennessean.
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64. Basil Marceaux 1%, Kay White <1%
65. Kay White 2%
66. Mae Beavers 4%
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78. Donald J. Trump. "Congratulations to Bill Lee of Tennessee on his big primary win for Governor last night. He ran a great campaign and now will finish off the job in November. Bill has my total and enthusiastic Endorsement!". Twitter.
79. Mike Pence. "Congratulations on a big primary win to @BillLeeTN! The people of Tennessee are fortunate to have a man like you step up to serve as their Governor. @realDonaldTrump and I strongly support you & look forward to campaigning with you to victory in November!". Twitter.
80. Lamar Alexander. "Congratulations to Bill Lee on tonight's victory. As I've often said, there is no better job than being governor of your home state, especially if that state is Tennessee. I look forward to working with Bill to continue Governor Haslam's excellent leadership of our state". Twitter.
81. Bundgaard, Chris (3 August 2018). "Diane Black throws support behind Bill Lee after GOP governor primary loss".
82. Marsha Blackburn. "Congratulations, @BillLeeTN! I look forward to uniting the party and working together for Tennessee". Twitter.
83. Bill Haslam. "Congrats to @BillLeeTN on winning the Republican nomination for TN governor". Twitter.
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88. "The Tennessee Police Benevolent Association Endorses Bill Lee for Governor". Southern States PBA. October 11, 2018.
89. Cooper, Clint (October 17, 2018). "Cooper: Lee best choice for Tennessee governor". Retrieved October 18, 2018.
90. "Bill Lee has potential to be an inspiring Tennessee governor". Knoxville News Sentinel. October 25, 2018. Retrieved October 25, 2018.
91. Terry McAuliffe. "Phone banking for @KarlFDean #TeamDean". Twitter.
92. Martin O'Malley. "It's great to be in Nashville with @PhilBredesen and @KarlFDean! Tennessee is fired up and feeling that blue wave!". Twitter.
93. Rep. Craig Fitzhugh. "I'm all in for @KarlFDean and you should be, too. For more #jobs, higher wages, for #educators & #MedicaidExpansion—there's only one choice. #TeamDean". Twitter.
94. "2018 Governor Race ratings | The Cook Political Report". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved 2017-11-15.
95. "Gubernatorial Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved 2017-11-15.
96. "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2018 Governor". www.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved 2017-11-15.
97. "2018 Governor Races". Retrieved August 2, 2018.
98. "Elections 2017-18". Daily Kos. September 30, 2018.
99. "2018 Midterm Power Ranking". Fox News. 2018-10-27.
100. "Politico Race Ratings". Politico.
101. "2018 Governor Elections: As November Nears, More Governors' Races Become Tossups". www.governing.com. Retrieved 2018-07-18.
102. "The Washington Post's gubernatorial race ratings". The Washington Post. October 16, 2018.
103. "2018 Governor Forecast | FiveThirtyEight". FiveThirtyEight. 2018-10-17. Retrieved October 17, 2018.
104. https://sos-tn-gov-files.tnsosfiles.com/Nov%202018%20General%20Totals.pdf

External links

• Candidates at Vote Smart
• Candidates at Ballotpedia

Official campaign websites

• Karl Dean (D) for Governor
• Bill Lee (R) for Governor
• Chad Riden (I) for Governor
• Vinnie Vineyard (L) for Governor