2018 United States Senate election in Montana
The 2018 United States Senate election in Montana was held on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Montana, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.
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Turnout | 70.86% | ||||||||||||||||
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County Results
Tester: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% | |||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Montana | ||||||||||
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Although Montana went for Donald Trump by a margin of about 20 percent in 2016, incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Tester was reelected to a third term, defeating Republican State Auditor Matt Rosendale. Rosendale conceded on November 7, 2018.[1] This was the first Senate election in which Tester received a majority of votes cast rather than a simple plurality.
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominated
- Jon Tester, incumbent U.S. Senator[2]
Endorsements
Jon Tester |
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Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Jon Tester (incumbent) | 114,948 | 100.00% | |
Total votes | 114,948 | 100.00% |
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominated
- Matt Rosendale, Auditor of Montana and candidate for Congress in 2014[16]
Eliminated in primary
- Troy Downing, veteran and businessman[17]
- Russell Fagg, former Yellowstone County District Judge[18]
- Albert Olszewski, state senator and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2012[19]
Declined
- Tim Fox, Attorney General of Montana[22][23]
- Rob O'Neill, former Navy SEAL (endorsed Troy Downing)[24][25]
- Marc Racicot, former governor and former chairman of the Republican National Committee (endorsed Russell Fagg)[26][27]
- Corey Stapleton, Secretary of State of Montana, candidate for governor in 2012 and candidate for Congress in 2014[28][29]
- Ryan Zinke, former Secretary of the Interior and former U.S. Representative[30][31]
Endorsements
Troy Downing |
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Russell Fagg |
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Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Troy Downing |
Russell Fagg |
Al Olszewski |
Matt Rosendale |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WPA Intelligence (R-Club for Growth) | April 15–16, 2018 | 503 | ± 4.4% | 12% | 17% | 8% | 40% | – | 23% |
WPA Intelligence (R-Rosendale) | February 5–7, 2018 | 401 | ± 4.4% | 12% | 11% | 5% | 28% | 1%[44] | – |
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Matt Rosendale | 51,859 | 33.82% | |
Republican | Russ Fagg | 43,465 | 28.34% | |
Republican | Troy Downing | 29,341 | 19.13% | |
Republican | Al Olszewski | 28,681 | 18.70% | |
Total votes | 153,346 | 100.00% |
Libertarian primary
Candidates
Nominated
- Rick Breckenridge, 2016 candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives[45]
In October 2018, Breckenridge told a reporter from the Associated Press that he opposed the use of dark money in politics. Breckenridge said that he realistically anticipated only receiving three or four percent of the vote in the general election, and that he endorsed Rosendale's efforts to stop the use of dark money in politics.[46] The Associated Press interpreted Breckenridge's comments as a statement that Breckenridge was dropping out of the race and endorsing Rosendale.[46] Breckenridge later stated that his use of the word "endorse" referred only to stopping the use of dark money in politics, and said he was still running for the Senate.[47][48][49]
Green Party
Kelly won the Green Party nomination, but a Montana district court judge ruled that he had insufficient signatures to get on the ballot.[50]
Candidates
Nominee (removed from ballot)
- Steve Kelly, artist and environmental activist[51]
Eliminated in primary
- Timothy Adams
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Green | Steve Kelly | 971 | 61.22% | |
Green | Timothy Adams | 615 | 38.78% | |
Total votes | 1,586 | 100% |
General election
Debates
- Complete video of debate, September 29, 2018
- Complete video of debate, October 14, 2018
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[52] | Tossup | November 1, 2018 |
Inside Elections[53] | Tilt D | November 1, 2018 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[54] | Lean D | November 1, 2018 |
Daily Kos[55] | Tossup | November 1, 2018 |
Fox News[56] | Lean D | November 1, 2018 |
CNN[57] | Lean D | November 1, 2018 |
RealClearPolitics[58] | Tossup | November 1, 2018 |
FiveThirtyEight[59] | Likely D | November 1, 2018 |
Endorsements
Jon Tester (D) |
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Fundraising
Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018 | |||
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Candidate (party) | Total receipts | Total disbursements | Cash on hand |
Jon Tester (D) | $19,499,290 | $17,946,600 | $1,612,530 |
Matt Rosendale (R) | $5,034,075 | $4,515,910 | $524,379 |
Rick Breckenridge (L) | - | - | - |
Source: Federal Election Commission[88] |
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jon Tester (D) |
Matt Rosendale (R) |
Rick Breckenridge (L) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Trafalgar Group (R) | November 2–5, 2018 | 953 | ± 3.2% | 50% | 49% | – | 1% | 0% |
HarrisX | November 1–5, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 50% | 42% | – | – | – |
Change Research | November 2–4, 2018 | 879 | – | 46% | 49% | 3% | – | – |
HarrisX | October 31 – November 4, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 49% | 43% | – | – | – |
HarrisX | October 30 – November 3, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 49% | 43% | – | – | – |
HarrisX | October 29 – November 2, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 50% | 42% | – | – | – |
HarrisX | October 28 – November 1, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 49% | 42% | – | – | – |
HarrisX | October 27–31, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 49% | 42% | – | – | – |
HarrisX | October 24–30, 2018 | 700 | ± 3.7% | 48% | 40% | – | – | – |
Gravis Marketing | October 24–26, 2018 | 782 | ± 3.5% | 48% | 45% | – | – | 7% |
University of Montana | October 10–18, 2018 | 533 | ± 4.3% | 49% | 39% | 2% | – | 10% |
Montana State University Billings | October 8–13, 2018 | 471 | ± 4.5% | 47% | 38% | 3% | – | 12% |
Montana State University Bozeman | September 15 – October 6, 2018 | 2,079 | ± 2.2% | 46% | 43% | 3% | 2% | 7% |
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) | September 28, 2018 | 594 | ± 4.0% | 49% | 45% | – | – | 6% |
Gravis Marketing | September 19–22, 2018 | 710 | ± 3.7% | 49% | 45% | – | – | 6% |
Axis Research (R-NRSC) | September 17–19, 2018 | – | ± 4.5% | 44% | 44% | 4% | – | 8% |
AARP/Benenson Strategy Group (D) | September 6–16, 2018 | 950 | ± 3.1% | 50% | 43% | – | 2% | 5% |
CBS News/YouGov | September 10–14, 2018 | 453 | – | 47% | 45% | – | 3% | 5% |
University of Montana | August 13–31, 2018 | 466 | ± 4.5% | 56% | 32% | 2% | – | 9% |
WPA Intelligence (R-NRSC) | August 20–22, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 45% | 47% | – | – | 5% |
Remington Research (R) | July 8–10, 2018 | 2,581 | ± 2.0% | 49% | 46% | – | – | 5% |
SurveyMonkey/Axios | June 11 – July 2, 2018 | 974 | ± 5.0% | 55% | 43% | – | – | 3% |
Gravis Marketing | June 11–13, 2018 | 469 | ± 4.5% | 52% | 44% | – | – | 4% |
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ± | |
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Democratic | Jon Tester (incumbent) | 253,876 | 50.33% | +1.75% | |
Republican | Matt Rosendale | 235,963 | 46.78% | +1.92% | |
Libertarian | Rick Breckenridge | 14,545 | 2.88% | -3.68% | |
Total votes | 504,384 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
Democratic hold |
References
- Rosendale congratulates Sen. Tester on his victory, KULR, November 7, 2018. Retrieved November 8, 2018.
- "Montana Senator Tester says $1.2M raised in 3rd quarter for re-election". Greatfallstribune.com. 2017-10-09. Retrieved 2018-05-02.
- "WI-Sen, MT-Sen, PA-06, NJ-03, FL-07, NJ-11: Joe Biden Helps These Dems Bring In The Big Blue Wave". Daily Kos. April 12, 2018.
- "MT-Sen: Sen. Dick Durbin (D. IL) Refuses To Let The Kochs Defeat Jon Tester (D)". Daily Kos. February 22, 2018.
- Brodey, Sam. "Franken, Klobuchar step up early with 2018 campaign cash for endangered Senate colleagues". MinnPost. Retrieved 2018-05-02.
- "MT-Sen: Sen. Kamala Harris (D. CA) Helps Jon Tester (D) Take On Trump & Mitch McConnell (R. KY)". Daily Kos. February 24, 2018.
- "MT-Sen: Sen. Ed Markey (D. MA) Helps Fellow Net Neutrality Champ Jon Tester (D) Fight Back". Daily Kos. February 27, 2018.
- "MT-Sen: Sen. Tom Udall (D. NM) Helps Jon Tester (D) Keep Up The Resistance Against Trump". Daily Kos. September 27, 2017.
- Warren sent out an email to supporters soliciting donations to Tester.
- "MT-Sen: Gov. Steve Bullock (D) Helps Jon Tester (D) Fight Back Against GOP's Assault On Medicaid". Daily Kos. June 30, 2017.
- "2018 Council-endorsed Senate Candidates - Council for a Livable World". Council for a Livable World.
- Muller, Tiffany (April 13, 2017). "End Citizens United Endorses Jon Tester for Senate - End Citizens United". End Citizens United.
- "Montana Conservation Voters and LCV Action Fund Endorse Senator Jon Tester for Re-Election". League of Conservation Voters. March 21, 2018.
- Hogue, Ilyse (April 9, 2018). "NARAL Pro-Choice America Endorses Senator Jon Tester for Re-election - NARAL Pro-Choice America". NARAL Pro-Choice America.
- "2018 Montana primary election results" (PDF). Retrieved 12 June 2019.
- Caina Calvan, Bobby (July 31, 2017). "Montana auditor says he'll seek US Senate seat". Great Falls Tribune. Retrieved July 31, 2017.
- Volz, Matt (May 18, 2017). "Storage company CEO files to run against Tester". Great Falls Tribune. Retrieved June 2, 2017.
- Lutey, Tom (October 14, 2017). "Former Judge Russell Fagg enters Senate race for Tester's seat". Billings Gazette.
- Michels, Holly K. (April 11, 2017). "Republican Olszewski says he's going to run against Tester in 2018". Independent Record. Retrieved April 11, 2017.
- Michels, Holly K. (June 23, 2017). "Belgrade Republican announces candidacy for GOP Senate bid". Independent Record. Retrieved July 5, 2017.
- "GOP U.S. Senate candidate Murray drops out". KXLH. Archived from the original on 2018-08-16. Retrieved 2018-08-16.
- Robillard, Kevin; Schneider, Elena (June 2, 2017). "Montana AG declines Senate run against Tester". Politico. Retrieved June 2, 2017.
- Caina Calvan, Bobby (June 5, 2017). "Montana attorney general Fox won't run for U.S. Senate". Great Falls Tribune. Retrieved June 6, 2017.
- King, Jon (September 2, 2016). "Ryan Zinke Hints That Fellow Navy Seal Rob O'Neill May Run for Senate". KGVO. Retrieved September 19, 2016.
- "Endorse Troy Downing for U.S. Senate". Troydowning.com. Archived from the original on 2018-06-11. Retrieved 2018-05-02.
- Gersh, Mark (August 18, 2016). "A New Democratic Senate Majority Could be Short-Lived". National Committee for an Effective Congress. Retrieved September 19, 2016.
- Dennison, Mike (September 12, 2017). "Republican Fagg insists he's still `exploring' U.S. Senate candidacy". Montana Television Network. Archived from the original on September 12, 2017. Retrieved September 13, 2017.
- "Morning Digest: After six months, Montana GOP still searching for a challenger to Sen. Jon Tester". Daily Kos Elections. June 2, 2017. Retrieved June 2, 2017.
- Staff, NCEC. "Democrats Likely on Defense in 2018 Senate Race". National Committee for an Effective Congress. Retrieved June 9, 2017.
- Severns, Maggie (September 13, 2016). "Democrats brace against potential 2018 Senate 'disaster'". Politico. Retrieved September 19, 2016.
- Schor, Elana; Everett, Burgess (November 18, 2016). "2018 showdown looms: House Republicans vs. Democratic senators". Politico. Retrieved November 18, 2016.
- Railey, Kimberly. "#mtsen: former Vice President Dan Quayle endorses @TroyDowningMT". Twitter.
- "RUSS'S ENDORSEMENTS". RUSS FAGG FOR MONTANA. November 24, 2017. Archived from the original on December 1, 2017. Retrieved November 24, 2017.
- "@MattForMontana". July 5, 2018.
- "AMBASSADOR JOHN BOLTON, MONTANA VETERANS ENDORSE ROSENDALE AS TOP NATIONAL DEFENSE CANDIDATE". Rosendale for U.S. Senate. January 9, 2018. Archived from the original on January 20, 2018. Retrieved January 19, 2018.
- "Rosendale touts Ted Cruz, Mike Lee endorsements". Great Falls Tribune. December 7, 2017.
- "ENDORSEMENTS". MATT ROSENDALE FOR MONTANA. November 24, 2017. Archived from the original on November 24, 2017. Retrieved November 24, 2017.
- "Former Trump adviser Steve Bannon endorses Matt Rosendale in Montana Senate primary". Independent Record. October 19, 2017.
- "CatholicVote.org Candidate Fund Endorses Rosendale for Senate". CatholicVote.org. November 20, 2017.
- "CLUB FOR GROWTH PAC ENDORSES MONTANA STATE AUDITOR MATT ROSENDALE FOR U.S. SENATE". Club for Growth. July 31, 2017.
- "Matt Rosendale for U.S. Senate in Montana". Senate Conservatives Fund. August 25, 2017.
- "Endorsements | Rosendale for U.S. Senate". Mattformontana.com. Archived from the original on 2018-05-03. Retrieved 2018-05-02.
- "FreedomWorks for America Endorses Matt Rosendale for Senate". FreedomWorks. January 30, 2018.
- Ron Murray 1%
- Drake, Phil (March 5, 2018). "Libertarian says he'll enter Montana U.S. Senate race". Great Falls Tribune. Retrieved March 5, 2018.
- Brown, Matthew (October 31, 2018). "Libertarian candidate drops out of Montana's U.S. Senate race to back Rosendale". Associated Press. Independent Record. Retrieved October 31, 2018.
- Doherty, Brian (October 31, 2018). "Despite Donald Trump Jr. Retweet, Libertarian Senate Candidate Rick Breckenridge Did Not Drop Out". Reason.
- Barber, Ellison; O'Reilly, Andrew (November 6, 2018). "Montana Libertarian candidate walks back endorsement of GOP nominee Rosendale in tight Senate race". Fox News.
- "Despite Donald Trump Jr. Retweet, Libertarian Senate Candidate Rick Breckenridge Did Not Drop Out". October 31, 2018.
- Wilson, Reid. "Judge boots Green Party from Montana ballot in boost to Tester". The Hill. Retrieved July 27, 2018.
- Dennison, Mike (March 12, 2018). "Green Party qualifies for MT ballot; 66 candidates file on final day for 2018 ballot". KPAX. Archived from the original on March 12, 2018. Retrieved March 12, 2018.
- "2018 Senate Race Ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 11, 2017.
- "2018 Senate Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 11, 2017.
- "2018 Crystal Ball Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 11, 2017.
- "Daily Kos Elections 2018 race ratings". Daily Kos. June 5, 2018.
- "2018 Senate Power Rankings". Retrieved July 10, 2018.
- "Key Races: Senate". Retrieved July 15, 2018.
- "Battle for the Senate 2018". Retrieved July 15, 2018.
- Silver, Nate (2018-09-11). "Montana - 2018 Senate Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved 2018-11-01.
- Brian Schatz. "Hey. Jon Tester needs your help. He's a farmer, an all around good person, and surprisingly normal for a Senator. He's in a tied race with a rich dude from another state. Please send him a few bucks if you've got anything to spare". Twitter.
- Schumer, Amy (October 22, 2018). "Newspic.twitter.com/UBe1ZQq5Yz".
- Cates-Carney, Corin. "Jeff Bridges Campaigns For Jon Tester In Bozeman". mtpr.org.
- "Gazette opinion: Keep Tester working for Montana in U.S. Senate". Billings Gazette. October 14, 2018.
- "Tester leads with moderation, civility". Missoulian. October 21, 2018.
- "Our Candidates - CWA Political". CWA Political.
- "Jon Tester – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org.
- "Candidates We Endorse and Support".
- "NEA Fund - Recommended Candidates". neafund.org.
- "Population Connection Action Fund Endorsements". Population Connection.
- Michels, Holly (July 12, 2018). "Vice President Pence coming to Billings to campaign for Rosendale". Independent Record.
- "Rosendale heads to Washington for meetings, fundraiser". AP NEWS. June 12, 2018.
- Corin Cates-Carney (October 23, 2018). "National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Stumps For Rosendale In Montana". MTPR. Retrieved October 26, 2018.
- Matt Rosendale. "Thrilled to have @LindseyGrahamSC and @SteveDaines join us in Bozeman tomorrow! Because of overwhelming demand, the GOTV Rally will now be held at the GranTree Inn". Twitter.
- Hann, Derek (October 29, 2018). "U.S. Sen. Rand Paul stumps in Havre in support of Rosendale". Havre Daily News. Retrieved October 31, 2018.
- Matt Rosendale. "Glad to have your full support, Russ. Thank you! "Matt and I had a very spirited primary ... But at the end of the day, I'm here to support Matt because I believe and I know that Matt will support the ideas that I support." #MAGA #MontanaFirst #TrumpCountry #mtsen #mtpol". Twitter.
- Drake, Phil. "Libertarian endorses Rosendale in Senate race". Great Falls Tribune.
- Brascia, Dominick (October 25, 2018). "EXCLUSIVE: VETERAN DOWNING SAYS TESTER BAD FOR VETS". kmmsam.com.
- Levin, Mark R. [@marklevinshow] (October 29, 2018). "Matt Rosendale for Senate in Montana www.mattformontana.com/" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- Matt Rosendale [@MattForMontana] (June 22, 2018). "I'm thrilled to have @DonaldJTrumpJr on Team Rosendale! He knows I'll back his father's AMERICA FIRST agenda. RT to stand with us and MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!! #MAGA #mtsen #mtpol" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- Flint, Aaron (October 29, 2018). "BREAKING: CROW TRIBAL CHAIRMAN ENDORSES ROSENDALE FOR SENATE". newstalk955.com. Retrieved October 31, 2018.
- "National Right to Life endorses Matt Rosendale against Jon Tester for U.S. Senate in Montana". NRL News Today. June 6, 2018.
- Matt Rosendale. "Honored to be endorsed by the @USChamber in Billings today. The Trump Tax Cuts are working here in Montana- creating more jobs and putting more money back in your pocket!!! #MAGA #MontanaFirst #mtsen #mtpol". Twitter.
- "Tea Party Express Endorses Matt Rosendale for U.S. Senate". Tea Party Express.
- "AFP-Montana Launches Six Figure Ad Buy Thanking Matt Rosendale for Expanding Health Care Options". Americans for Prosperity. August 28, 2018.
- Christian, Peter (August 30, 2018). "MONTANA GUN GROUP GRADES AND ENDORSES POLITICAL CANDIDATES". NewsTalkKGVO.com.
- Drake, Phil (September 12, 2018). "NRA endorses Gianforte and Rosendale, targets Tester". Great Falls Tribune.
- "NOM Endorses Candidates in Key Senate Midterm Contests". NOM Blog. 17 October 2018. Retrieved 29 October 2018.
- "Campaign finance data". Retrieved October 31, 2018.
- "Montana Secretary of State". mtelectionresults.gov.
External links
- Candidates at Vote Smart
- Candidates at Ballotpedia
- Campaign finance at FEC
- Campaign finance at Center for Responsive Politics
- Official campaign websites