2018 United States Senate election in Montana

The 2018 United States Senate election in Montana was held on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Montana, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.

2018 United States Senate election in Montana

November 6, 2018
Turnout70.86%
 
Nominee Jon Tester Matt Rosendale
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 253,876 235,963
Percentage 50.3% 46.8%

County Results

Tester:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%

Rosendale:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%

U.S. senator before election

Jon Tester
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Jon Tester
Democratic

Although Montana went for Donald Trump by a margin of about 20 percent in 2016, incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Tester was reelected to a third term, defeating Republican State Auditor Matt Rosendale. Rosendale conceded on November 7, 2018.[1] This was the first Senate election in which Tester received a majority of votes cast rather than a simple plurality.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominated

Endorsements

Jon Tester
U.S. Vice President
U.S. Senators
Local and statewide politicians
Organizations

Results

Democratic primary results[15]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Jon Tester (incumbent) 114,948 100.00%
Total votes 114,948 100.00%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

  • Ron Murray, businessman and candidate for the state house in 2010[20][21]

Declined

Endorsements

Troy Downing
U.S. Vice Presidents
State Representatives
Individuals
Russell Fagg
Governors
U.S. Representatives
Individuals
Matt Rosendale
U.S. Presidents
National Security Adviser
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State Senators
State Representatives
Individuals
Organizations

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Troy
Downing
Russell
Fagg
Al
Olszewski
Matt
Rosendale
Other Undecided
WPA Intelligence (R-Club for Growth) April 15–16, 2018 503 ± 4.4% 12% 17% 8% 40% 23%
WPA Intelligence (R-Rosendale) February 5–7, 2018 401 ± 4.4% 12% 11% 5% 28% 1%[44]

Results

Results by county
Republican primary results[15]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Matt Rosendale 51,859 33.82%
Republican Russ Fagg 43,465 28.34%
Republican Troy Downing 29,341 19.13%
Republican Al Olszewski 28,681 18.70%
Total votes 153,346 100.00%

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominated

  • Rick Breckenridge, 2016 candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives[45]

In October 2018, Breckenridge told a reporter from the Associated Press that he opposed the use of dark money in politics. Breckenridge said that he realistically anticipated only receiving three or four percent of the vote in the general election, and that he endorsed Rosendale's efforts to stop the use of dark money in politics.[46] The Associated Press interpreted Breckenridge's comments as a statement that Breckenridge was dropping out of the race and endorsing Rosendale.[46] Breckenridge later stated that his use of the word "endorse" referred only to stopping the use of dark money in politics, and said he was still running for the Senate.[47][48][49]

Green Party

Kelly won the Green Party nomination, but a Montana district court judge ruled that he had insufficient signatures to get on the ballot.[50]

Candidates

Nominee (removed from ballot)

  • Steve Kelly, artist and environmental activist[51]

Eliminated in primary

  • Timothy Adams

Results

Results by county
Green primary results[15]
Party Candidate Votes %
Green Steve Kelly 971 61.22%
Green Timothy Adams 615 38.78%
Total votes 1,586 100%

General election

Debates

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[52] Tossup November 1, 2018
Inside Elections[53] Tilt D November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[54] Lean D November 1, 2018
Daily Kos[55] Tossup November 1, 2018
Fox News[56] Lean D November 1, 2018
CNN[57] Lean D November 1, 2018
RealClearPolitics[58] Tossup November 1, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[59] Likely D November 1, 2018

Endorsements

Jon Tester (D)
U.S. Vice President
U.S. Senators
Individuals
Newspapers
Local and statewide politicians
Organizations
Matt Rosendale (R)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
National Security Adviser
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
District Judges
  • Russell Fagg, former Yellowstone County District Judge and 2018 Senate Primary Challenger[75]
State Senators
State Representative
Individuals
Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018
Candidate (party) Total receipts Total disbursements Cash on hand
Jon Tester (D) $19,499,290 $17,946,600 $1,612,530
Matt Rosendale (R) $5,034,075 $4,515,910 $524,379
Rick Breckenridge (L) - - -
Source: Federal Election Commission[88]

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Jon
Tester (D)
Matt
Rosendale (R)
Rick
Breckenridge (L)
Other Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R) November 2–5, 2018 953 ± 3.2% 50% 49% 1% 0%
HarrisX November 1–5, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 50% 42%
Change Research November 2–4, 2018 879 46% 49% 3%
HarrisX October 31 – November 4, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 49% 43%
HarrisX October 30 – November 3, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 49% 43%
HarrisX October 29 – November 2, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 50% 42%
HarrisX October 28 – November 1, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 49% 42%
HarrisX October 27–31, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 49% 42%
HarrisX October 24–30, 2018 700 ± 3.7% 48% 40%
Gravis Marketing October 24–26, 2018 782 ± 3.5% 48% 45% 7%
University of Montana October 10–18, 2018 533 ± 4.3% 49% 39% 2% 10%
Montana State University Billings October 8–13, 2018 471 ± 4.5% 47% 38% 3% 12%
Montana State University Bozeman September 15 – October 6, 2018 2,079 ± 2.2% 46% 43% 3% 2% 7%
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) September 28, 2018 594 ± 4.0% 49% 45% 6%
Gravis Marketing September 19–22, 2018 710 ± 3.7% 49% 45% 6%
Axis Research (R-NRSC) September 17–19, 2018 ± 4.5% 44% 44% 4% 8%
AARP/Benenson Strategy Group (D) September 6–16, 2018 950 ± 3.1% 50% 43% 2% 5%
CBS News/YouGov September 10–14, 2018 453 47% 45% 3% 5%
University of Montana August 13–31, 2018 466 ± 4.5% 56% 32% 2% 9%
WPA Intelligence (R-NRSC) August 20–22, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 45% 47% 5%
Remington Research (R) July 8–10, 2018 2,581 ± 2.0% 49% 46% 5%
SurveyMonkey/Axios June 11 – July 2, 2018 974 ± 5.0% 55% 43% 3%
Gravis Marketing June 11–13, 2018 469 ± 4.5% 52% 44% 4%

Results

United States Senate election in Montana, 2018[89]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Democratic Jon Tester (incumbent) 253,876 50.33% +1.75%
Republican Matt Rosendale 235,963 46.78% +1.92%
Libertarian Rick Breckenridge 14,545 2.88% -3.68%
Total votes 504,384 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold
gollark: We autogenerated legal systems where it's fine.
gollark: As if we can't autotrace causal chains.
gollark: So your account got billed when you took the hardware.
gollark: No, I mean we have automatic "just walk out" purchase processing.
gollark: It's logically impossible for you to steal them.

References

  1. Rosendale congratulates Sen. Tester on his victory, KULR, November 7, 2018. Retrieved November 8, 2018.
  2. "Montana Senator Tester says $1.2M raised in 3rd quarter for re-election". Greatfallstribune.com. 2017-10-09. Retrieved 2018-05-02.
  3. "WI-Sen, MT-Sen, PA-06, NJ-03, FL-07, NJ-11: Joe Biden Helps These Dems Bring In The Big Blue Wave". Daily Kos. April 12, 2018.
  4. "MT-Sen: Sen. Dick Durbin (D. IL) Refuses To Let The Kochs Defeat Jon Tester (D)". Daily Kos. February 22, 2018.
  5. Brodey, Sam. "Franken, Klobuchar step up early with 2018 campaign cash for endangered Senate colleagues". MinnPost. Retrieved 2018-05-02.
  6. "MT-Sen: Sen. Kamala Harris (D. CA) Helps Jon Tester (D) Take On Trump & Mitch McConnell (R. KY)". Daily Kos. February 24, 2018.
  7. "MT-Sen: Sen. Ed Markey (D. MA) Helps Fellow Net Neutrality Champ Jon Tester (D) Fight Back". Daily Kos. February 27, 2018.
  8. "MT-Sen: Sen. Tom Udall (D. NM) Helps Jon Tester (D) Keep Up The Resistance Against Trump". Daily Kos. September 27, 2017.
  9. Warren sent out an email to supporters soliciting donations to Tester.
  10. "MT-Sen: Gov. Steve Bullock (D) Helps Jon Tester (D) Fight Back Against GOP's Assault On Medicaid". Daily Kos. June 30, 2017.
  11. "2018 Council-endorsed Senate Candidates - Council for a Livable World". Council for a Livable World.
  12. Muller, Tiffany (April 13, 2017). "End Citizens United Endorses Jon Tester for Senate - End Citizens United". End Citizens United.
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  19. Michels, Holly K. (April 11, 2017). "Republican Olszewski says he's going to run against Tester in 2018". Independent Record. Retrieved April 11, 2017.
  20. Michels, Holly K. (June 23, 2017). "Belgrade Republican announces candidacy for GOP Senate bid". Independent Record. Retrieved July 5, 2017.
  21. "GOP U.S. Senate candidate Murray drops out". KXLH. Archived from the original on 2018-08-16. Retrieved 2018-08-16.
  22. Robillard, Kevin; Schneider, Elena (June 2, 2017). "Montana AG declines Senate run against Tester". Politico. Retrieved June 2, 2017.
  23. Caina Calvan, Bobby (June 5, 2017). "Montana attorney general Fox won't run for U.S. Senate". Great Falls Tribune. Retrieved June 6, 2017.
  24. King, Jon (September 2, 2016). "Ryan Zinke Hints That Fellow Navy Seal Rob O'Neill May Run for Senate". KGVO. Retrieved September 19, 2016.
  25. "Endorse Troy Downing for U.S. Senate". Troydowning.com. Archived from the original on 2018-06-11. Retrieved 2018-05-02.
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  44. Ron Murray 1%
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  60. Brian Schatz. "Hey. Jon Tester needs your help. He's a farmer, an all around good person, and surprisingly normal for a Senator. He's in a tied race with a rich dude from another state. Please send him a few bucks if you've got anything to spare". Twitter.
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  71. "Rosendale heads to Washington for meetings, fundraiser". AP NEWS. June 12, 2018.
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  73. Matt Rosendale. "Thrilled to have @LindseyGrahamSC and @SteveDaines join us in Bozeman tomorrow! Because of overwhelming demand, the GOTV Rally will now be held at the GranTree Inn". Twitter.
  74. Hann, Derek (October 29, 2018). "U.S. Sen. Rand Paul stumps in Havre in support of Rosendale". Havre Daily News. Retrieved October 31, 2018.
  75. Matt Rosendale. "Glad to have your full support, Russ. Thank you! "Matt and I had a very spirited primary ... But at the end of the day, I'm here to support Matt because I believe and I know that Matt will support the ideas that I support." #MAGA #MontanaFirst #TrumpCountry #mtsen #mtpol". Twitter.
  76. Drake, Phil. "Libertarian endorses Rosendale in Senate race". Great Falls Tribune.
  77. Brascia, Dominick (October 25, 2018). "EXCLUSIVE: VETERAN DOWNING SAYS TESTER BAD FOR VETS". kmmsam.com.
  78. Levin, Mark R. [@marklevinshow] (October 29, 2018). "Matt Rosendale for Senate in Montana www.mattformontana.com/" (Tweet) via Twitter.
  79. Matt Rosendale [@MattForMontana] (June 22, 2018). "I'm thrilled to have @DonaldJTrumpJr on Team Rosendale! He knows I'll back his father's AMERICA FIRST agenda. RT to stand with us and MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!! #MAGA #mtsen #mtpol" (Tweet) via Twitter.
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  81. "National Right to Life endorses Matt Rosendale against Jon Tester for U.S. Senate in Montana". NRL News Today. June 6, 2018.
  82. Matt Rosendale. "Honored to be endorsed by the @USChamber in Billings today. The Trump Tax Cuts are working here in Montana- creating more jobs and putting more money back in your pocket!!! #MAGA #MontanaFirst #mtsen #mtpol". Twitter.
  83. "Tea Party Express Endorses Matt Rosendale for U.S. Senate". Tea Party Express.
  84. "AFP-Montana Launches Six Figure Ad Buy Thanking Matt Rosendale for Expanding Health Care Options". Americans for Prosperity. August 28, 2018.
  85. Christian, Peter (August 30, 2018). "MONTANA GUN GROUP GRADES AND ENDORSES POLITICAL CANDIDATES". NewsTalkKGVO.com.
  86. Drake, Phil (September 12, 2018). "NRA endorses Gianforte and Rosendale, targets Tester". Great Falls Tribune.
  87. "NOM Endorses Candidates in Key Senate Midterm Contests". NOM Blog. 17 October 2018. Retrieved 29 October 2018.
  88. "Campaign finance data". Retrieved October 31, 2018.
  89. "Montana Secretary of State". mtelectionresults.gov.
Official campaign websites
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