2016 United States presidential election in Montana

The 2016 United States presidential election in Montana was won by Republican Donald Trump and running mate Mike Pence, on November 8, 2016, with 56.2% of the vote, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election. Democratic Party nominee Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine received 35.7% of the vote.[1] Montana assigns all of its three Electoral votes to the winner of the state's popular vote.

Main article: 2016 United States presidential election
2016 United States presidential election in Montana
November 8, 2016
Turnout74.44%
 
Nominee Donald Trump Hillary Clinton Gary Johnson
Party Republican Democratic Libertarian
Home state New York New York New Mexico
Running mate Mike Pence Tim Kaine Bill Weld
Electoral vote 3 0 0
Popular vote 279,240 177,709 28,037
Percentage 56.17% 35.75% 5.64%
County Results
President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

 Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Results by county showing number of votes by size and candidates by color
Treemap of the popular vote by county
Elections in Montana

The Montana primary was on June 7, 2016, selecting nominees for the two major parties, as well as the Libertarian Party. Registered members of each party may only vote in their party's primary, while voters who are unaffiliated may choose any one primary in which to vote.

Trump's margin was 20.5%, exceeding Mitt Romney's 13.7% win in 2012, and John McCain's 2.4% win in 2008. Republicans have won Montana in every presidential election since 1996. Libertarian nominee and third-party candidate Gary Johnson received 5.6% of the vote.

Primary elections

Democratic primary

Four candidates appeared on the Democratic presidential primary ballot:

Montana Democratic primary, June 7, 2016
Candidate Popular vote Estimated delegates
Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total
Bernie Sanders 65,156 51.56% 11 1 12
Hillary Clinton 55,805 44.16% 10 5 15
No preference 5,415 4.28% 0 0 0
Uncommitted N/A 0 0 0
Total 126,376 100% 21 6 27
Source: The Green Papers, Montana Secretary of State - Official Primary Results

Republican primary

Twelve candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot:

Montana Republican primary, June 7, 2016
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 115,594 73.68% 27 0 27
Ted Cruz (withdrawn) 14,682 9.36% 0 0 0
John Kasich (withdrawn) 10,777 6.87% 0 0 0
No preference 7,369 4.70% 0 0 0
Marco Rubio (withdrawn) 5,192 3.31% 0 0 0
Jeb Bush (withdrawn) 3,274 2.09% 0 0 0
Unprojected delegates: 0 0 0
Total: 156,888 100.00% 27 0 27
Source: The Green Papers

General election

Predictions

Results by county

Preliminary general election results for president as of 14 December 2016 by county. Totals exclude 2,621 write-in votes. [7]

County Clinton% Clinton# Trump% Trump# Others% Others# Total
Beaverhead23.57%114369.15%33537.28%3534849
Big Horn49.57%209443.87%18536.56%2774224
Blaine45.00%120247.47%12687.53%2012671
Broadwater18.30%57374.97%23486.74%2113132
Carbon30.64%182862.81%37486.55%3915967
Carter8.99%7087.03%6783.98%31779
Cascade35.41%1217557.10%196327.49%257734384
Chouteau28.27%73264.85%16796.88%1782589
Custer22.68%117670.53%36576.79%3525185
Daniels17.59%16876.44%7305.97%57955
Dawson18.17%78776.66%33205.17%2244331
Deer Lodge49.07%205842.04%17638.89%3734194
Fallon10.38%15486.19%12793.44%511484
Fergus20.58%120273.10%42696.32%3695840
Flathead28.59%1329365.04%302406.37%296146494
Gallatin45.50%2424644.66%238029.84%524453292
Garfield4.75%3491.20%6534.05%29716
Glacier61.67%312132.01%16206.32%3205061
Golden Valley15.07%7177.49%3657.43%35471
Granite26.59%47267.15%11926.25%1111775
Hill36.90%237154.12%34788.98%5776426
Jefferson29.96%199862.64%41777.39%4936668
Judith Basin19.57%23572.61%8727.83%941201
Lake36.43%477657.44%75306.13%80413110
Lewis and Clark42.28%1447849.34%168958.39%287234245
Liberty21.55%20673.01%6985.44%52956
Lincoln21.98%204172.48%67295.54%5149284
Madison24.88%118069.51%32975.61%2664743
McCone14.53%15481.32%8624.15%441060
Meagher19.79%19374.77%7295.44%53975
Mineral25.91%51966.40%13307.69%1542003
Missoula53.44%3154337.70%222508.87%523359026
Musselshell13.74%33281.42%19674.84%1172416
Park38.63%359553.51%49807.86%7319306
Petroleum9.32%3086.34%2784.35%14322
Phillips14.72%31879.73%17235.55%1202161
Pondera27.17%73866.24%17996.59%1792716
Powder River12.08%12784.11%8843.81%401051
Powell19.72%55172.62%20297.66%2142794
Prairie14.51%10080.70%5564.79%33689
Ravalli27.85%622366.28%148105.88%131322346
Richland13.84%67180.63%39085.53%2684847
Roosevelt42.76%156049.26%17977.98%2913648
Rosebud28.69%98765.49%22535.81%2003440
Sanders20.61%121872.52%42866.87%4065910
Sheridan26.04%47767.74%12416.22%1141832
Silver Bow52.43%861938.79%63768.78%144416439
Stillwater18.66%90875.24%36616.10%2974866
Sweet Grass19.14%40275.95%15954.90%1032100
Teton25.42%80868.26%21706.32%2013179
Toole19.80%40273.74%14976.45%1312030
Treasure13.32%5979.23%3517.45%33443
Valley22.86%88669.61%26987.53%2923876
Wheatland18.96%17974.36%7026.67%63944
Wibaux10.24%5586.22%4633.54%19537
Yellowstone32.35%2217159.70%409207.96%545368544

Counties that swung from Democratic to Republican

Counties that swung from Republican to Democratic

Analysis

Like every Republican nominee since 1996, Donald Trump carried Montana's three electoral votes. He won by a large margin, and he swept most of the plains counties in eastern Montana, traditionally the most conservative part of the state, by staggering margins sometimes exceeding 60 points. The eastern part of the state has benefited from the recent energy boom in neighboring North Dakota, and its populace is suspicious and disapproving of the environmental movement championed by Democrats in recent elections.

Most counties in the western part of the state were also traditionally Republican, with a ranching-based economy heavily dependent on the raising and production of cattle and hay, particularly in the counties bordering Idaho such as Beaverhead County and Ravalli County. However, an influx of retirees from the West Coast have made the western region more competitive in recent elections.[8]

The only significant counties won by Clinton were Missoula County, where the city of Missoula is located, Gallatin County, where Bozeman is located, and Big Horn County and Glacier County, which are both majority Native American. While sweeping most of the rural, majority white conservative counties of the state, Trump also won in Lewis and Clark County where the capital city of Helena is located, in neighboring Cascade County where Great Falls is located, and in Yellowstone County where the city of Billings is located.[9]

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See also

References
  1. "Montana Election Results 2016 – The New York Times". Retrieved November 11, 2016.
  2. Chalian, David (4 November 2016). "Road to 270: CNN's new election map". CNN. Retrieved 17 February 2019.
  3. "2016 Electoral Scorecard". The Cook Political Report. 7 November 2016. Retrieved 17 February 2019.
  4. "2016 Predicted Electoral Map". Electoral-vote.com. Retrieved 17 February 2019.
  5. Todd, Chuck (7 November 2016). "NBC's final battleground map shows a lead for Clinton". NBC News. Retrieved 17 February 2019.
  6. "2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved 17 February 2019.
  7. 2016 Statewide General Election Canvass (PDF) Montana Secretary Of State Linda McCulloch. Accessed December 14, 2016.
  8. Cohen, Micah (2012-06-21). "Presidential Geography: Montana". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved 2016-11-26.
  9. "Montana Election Results 2016". Retrieved 2016-11-26.
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