2010 United States Senate election in Nevada

The 2010 United States Senate election in Nevada took place on November 2, 2010. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator and Majority Leader Harry Reid won re-election to a fifth term.[1]

2010 United States Senate election in Nevada
November 2, 2010
 
Nominee Harry Reid Sharron Angle
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 362,785 321,361
Percentage 50.3% 44.6%
County results
Reid:      40–50%      50–60%
Angle:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%
U.S. senator before election

Harry Reid
Democratic

 Elected U.S. Senator

Harry Reid
Democratic

Elections in Nevada
None of These Candidates

Democratic primary

The Democratic primary took place on June 8, 2010. Reid won by a large margin over a field of political unknowns.

Candidates
  • Harry Reid
  • Alex Miller
  • Eduardo Hamilton
  • Carlo Poliak[2]

Polling
Poll source Dates administered Harry Reid Barbara Buckley
Mellman Group June 17–29, 2008 51% 20%

Results
Democratic primary results[3]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Harry Reid (incumbent) 87,401 75.3%
Democratic None of these 12,341 10.6%
Democratic Alex Miller 9,717 8.4%
Democratic Eduardo Hamilton 4,645 4.0%
Democratic Carlo Poliak 1,938 1.7%
Total votes 116,042 100.00%

Republican primary

The Republican primary also took place on Tuesday, June 8, 2010.

Candidates

Endorsements

Lowden
Notable individuals and organizations endorsing Sue Lowden

Tarkanian
Notable individuals and organizations endorsing Danny Tarkanian

Angle
Notable individuals and organizations endorsing Sharron Angle

Polling

Includes current candidates who have polled at least 2% in at least one poll.

Dates administered Poll source Tarkanian Lowden Angle
August 21, 2009 Mason Dixon/LVJR 33% 14% 5%
October 8, 2009 Mason Dixon/LVJR 21% 23% 9%
December 2009 Mason Dixon/LVJR 24% 25% 13%
January 7, 2010 Mason Dixon/LVJR 28% 26% 13%
February 24, 2010 Mason Dixon/LVJR 29% 47% 8%
April 11, 2010 Mason Dixon/LVJR 27% 45% 5%
April 26–28, 2010 Research 2000 28% 38% 13%
May 13, 2010 Mason Dixon/LVJR 22% 30% 25%
May 28, 2010 Mason Dixon/LVJR 23% 30% 29%
May 31 – June 2, 2010 Research 2000 24% 25% 34%
June 2, 2010 Suffolk University 26% 24% 33%
June 1–3, 2010 Mason Dixon/LVJR 24% 23% 32%

Results
Republican primary results[3]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Sharron Angle 70,452 40.1%
Republican Sue Lowden 45,890 26.1%
Republican Danny Tarkanian 40,936 23.3%
Republican John Chachas 6,926 3.9%
Republican Chad Christensen 4,806 2.7%
Republican None of these 3,091 1.8%
Republican Bill Parson 1,484 0.8%
Republican Gary Bernstein 698 0.4%
Republican Garn Mabey 462 0.3%
Republican Cecilia Stern 355 0.2%
Republican Brian Nadell 235 0.1%
Republican Terry Suominen 224 0.1%
Republican Gary Marinch 179 0.1%
Total votes 175,738 100.00%

General election

Candidates

Campaign

In January 2009, the GOP began running an advertisement attacking Reid for his support of the legislation and President Barack Obama's proposed stimulus plan.[44] Since becoming Minority Leader (in 2004), his approval ratings have dropped below 50%. A November 2007 poll showed Reid's approval rating at 39%, with 49% of voters disapproving.[45]

After the primaries, the first poll showed Angle leading by a double-digit margin. CQ Politics changed their analysis of the race from leaning Republican to a toss-up because of Angle's sharply conservative views and tendency to commit verbal gaffes; however, CQ added that if the voters treat the election as a referendum on Reid, then Angle will likely win.[46]

In 2009, Reid had been endorsed by some prominent Nevada Republicans.[47] Immediately after the primary, the Republican mayor of Reno, Bob Cashell, who had backed Lowden in the Republican primary, endorsed Reid for the general election, calling Angle an "ultra-right winger."[48][49] Other Republicans expressed doubt about supporting Angle, citing her reputation for ideological rigidity from her years in the state legislature.[50]

One of the first general election ads attacked Angle for her stance on Social Security and Medicare.[51] In response, Angle explained that "the government must continue to keep its contract with seniors, who entered into the system on good faith and now are depending on that contract." In response to accusations that she was not mainstream enough for Nevada voters, Angle explained on a KXNT radio show that she was "more mainstream than the fellow that said tourists stink, this war is lost, and light-skinned no-Negro dialect", in reference to comments that had been made by Senator Reid.[52]

In September, Tibi Ellis, the chairwoman of the Nevada Republican Hispanic Caucus, who had been a spokesperson for Angle, criticized an Angle ad related to immigration. Ellis said, "I condemned this type of propaganda, no matter who is running them, where they blame Mexicans as the only problem and where they attack them as the only source of illegal immigration."[53]

Angle was endorsed by Nevada's largest newspaper, the Las Vegas Review-Journal.[54] Reid had the endorsement from Nevada's second largest newspaper, the Las Vegas Sun.[55] and the largest newspaper outside of Las Vegas, the Reno Gazette-Journal.[56]

On October 7, 2010, Republican State Senator and Minority Leader William Raggio endorsed Reid.[57][58] Dema Guinn, the widow of the late Republican Nevada Governor Kenny Guinn, endorsed Reid on October 8.[59]

Debate

Angle and Reid only agreed to one debate, in which no other candidate would participate. It was held on October 14.[60] Junior Senator John Ensign played Reid during one day of debate preparation at the Trump Plaza in Las Vegas for Angle.[61]

Predictions

History

Reid was initially considered vulnerable, with the non-partisan Cook Political Report rating the election as a tossup[62] and the Rothenberg Political Report rating the state as tossup.[63] A June 9, 2010, Rasmussen Reports post-primary poll showed Angle leading incumbent Senator Harry Reid by a margin of 50% to 39%.[64] However, a July 2010 poll showed Senator Reid leading Angle by 7 points, following nationwide attention to some of Angle's positions,[65] as well as the endorsement of Reid by prominent Republicans. The change of margin, 18% in less than a month, is the largest in Senate elections history.[65] On July 28, 2010, Rasmussen Reports moved the race from tossup to leans Democratic.[66] Later, it moved back to tossup.

Table
Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report Toss up[67] October 19, 2010
Rothenberg Toss up[68] October 15, 2010
RealClearPolitics Toss up[69] October 19, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball Leans R[70] October 28, 2010
CQ Politics Toss up[71] October 19, 2010
Rasmussen Reports Toss up[72] October 16, 2010

Polling
Dates administered Poll source Sharron Angle (R) Harry Reid (D)
December 9, 2009 Rasmussen Reports 47% 43%
January 7, 2010 Mason Dixon 45% 40%
January 11, 2010 Rasmussen Reports 44% 40%
February 3, 2010 Rasmussen Reports 44% 40%
March 3, 2010 Rasmussen Reports 47% 43%
March 31, 2010 Rasmussen Reports 51% 40%
April 27, 2010 Rasmussen Reports 48% 40%
April 26–28, 2010 Research 2000 44% 41%
May 28, 2010 Mason Dixon/LVJR 39% 42%
May 31 – June 2, 2010 Research 2000 37% 42%
June 1–3, 2010 Mason Dixon/LVJR 44% 41%
June 9, 2010 Rasmussen Reports 50% 39%
June 22, 2010 Rasmussen Reports 48% 41%
July 12, 2010 Rasmussen Reports 46% 43%
July 12–14, 2010 Mason-Dixon 37% 44%
July 16–18, 2010 Public Policy Polling 46% 48%
July 27, 2010 Rasmussen Reports 43% 45%
July 28–30, 2010 Mason-Dixon 42% 43%
August 3, 2010 Reuters/Iposos 44% 48%
August 9–11, 2010 Mason-Dixon 44% 46%
August 16, 2010 Rasmussen Reports 47% 47%
August 23–25, 2010 Mason-Dixon 44% 45%
September 1, 2010 Rasmussen Reports 45% 45%
September 7–9, 2010 Mason-Dixon 44% 46%
September 11, 2010 FOX News/Pulse Opinion Research 45% 44%
September 13, 2010 Rasmussen Reports 48% 48%
September 10–14, 2010 CNN/Time Magazine 42% 41%
September 18, 2010 FOX News/Pulse Opinion Research 46% 45%
September 20–22, 2010 LVRJ/Mason-Dixon 43% 43%
September 21–23, 2010 Public Opinion Strategies 40% 45%
September 28, 2010 Rasmussen Reports 47% 48%
October 2, 2010 FOX News/Pulse Opinion Research 49% 46%
October 4, 2010 Magellan Strategies 48% 43%
October 5, 2010 Rasmussen Reports 50% 46%
October 7–9, 2010 Public Policy Polling 45% 47%
October 9, 2010 Fox News/POR-Rasmussen 49% 47%
October 11, 2010 Rasmussen Reports 49% 48%
October 14, 2010 Las Vegas Review-Journal/Mason-Dixon 47% 45%
October 17, 2010 Rasmussen Reports 50% 47%
October 25, 2010 Rasmussen Reports 49% 45%
October 20–26, 2010 CNN/Time/Opinion Research 49% 45%
October 25–27, 2010 Mason-Dixon 49% 45%
October 30, 2010 Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research 48% 45%
October 31, 2010 Public Policy Polling 47% 46%

Fundraising
Candidate (party) Receipts Disbursements Cash on hand Debt
Sharron Angle (R) $27,797,915 $27,505,917 $291,999 $635,737
Harry Reid (D) $19,185,317 $22,325,360 $176,309 $419,093
Source: Federal Election Commission[73]

Results

Despite Angle leading by three points in the polls the days leading up to the election, Reid defeated Angle by 5.74%, even defeating Angle in her own county, Washoe County. Reid also secured huge numbers out of the Democratic stronghold of Clark County, which covers the Las Vegas Metropolitan Area.

United States Senate election in Nevada, 2010[74][75]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Democratic Harry Reid (incumbent) 362,785 50.29% -10.84%
Republican Sharron Angle 321,361 44.55% +9.45%
None of These Candidates – 16,174 2.25% +0.65%
Tea Party Scott Ashjian 5,811 0.81% N/A
Independent Michael L. Haines 4,261 0.59% N/A
Independent American Timothy Fasano 3,185 0.44% N/A
Independent Jesse Holland 3,175 0.44% N/A
Independent Jeffery C. Reeves 2,510 0.35% N/A
Independent Wil Stand 2,119 0.29% N/A
Majority 41,424 5.74%
Total votes 721,381 100.00% -11.14%
Democratic hold Swing
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Debates
Official campaign sites
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