2018 Kansas gubernatorial election

The 2018 Kansas gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the next Governor of Kansas. Democratic nominee Laura Kelly won the election, defeating Republican nominee Kris Kobach and independent candidate Greg Orman.

2018 Kansas gubernatorial election
November 6, 2018
 
Nominee Laura Kelly Kris Kobach Greg Orman
Party Democratic Republican Independent
Running mate Lynn Rogers Wink Hartman John Doll
Popular vote 506,727 453,645 68,590
Percentage 48.0% 43.0% 6.5%
County results
Kelly:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Kobach:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Governor before election

Jeff Colyer
Republican

 Elected Governor

Laura Kelly
Democratic

Elections in Kansas

Incumbent Republican Governor Sam Brownback was term-limited and could not seek reelection to a third consecutive term. On July 26, 2017, Brownback was nominated by President Donald Trump to serve as United States Ambassador-at-Large for International Religious Freedom. He was confirmed by the United States Senate on January 24, 2018.[1][2] Brownback resigned the governorship on January 31 and was succeeded by Lieutenant Governor Jeff Colyer.[3] Colyer was eligible to seek a full term and announced his candidacy prior to becoming Governor of Kansas. In the August 7 primary, Colyer ran against CPA and incumbent Insurance Commissioner Ken Selzer, Topeka doctor and 2006 Republican Kansas gubernatorial nominee Jim Barnett, and Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach.

On August 7, 2018, Kobach defeated Colyer in the Republican gubernatorial primary by an initial margin of 191 votes,[4] a lead that increased to 361 votes by August 14, although discrepancies in some counties needed resolution and provisional and absentee ballots may not have been counted in some counties.[5][6][7] Colyer conceded the Republican nomination after the final votes were tallied, in which Kobach's margin grew slightly.[8] Democratic State Senator Laura Kelly easily won the Democratic nomination.[9] Businessman Greg Orman, who finished second as an independent in the 2014 U.S. Senate race against incumbent Republican Pat Roberts, also ran for governor as an independent candidate.[10]

Given that Kansas is the only state which has no gubernatorial statutory qualifications whatsoever in its constitution, seven teenagers, including one who has never even been to the state of Kansas, ran for the office in this election cycle.[11] A debate took place on September 5 between the three candidates that consistently polled above 5%.[12] Polls in late August had Laura Kelly and Kris Kobach running close with Greg Orman polling in the single digits.[13]

Laura Kelly's win continued a streak of party turnover for Governor of Kansas, as Kansas has not elected two consecutive governors of the same party since Republican William Avery succeeded fellow Republican John Anderson Jr. following the 1964 election, and neither major party has held the governorship for longer than eight consecutive years since Republican John McCuish left office in 1957.[14]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary
  • Jim Barnett, former state senator, nominee for governor in 2006 and candidate for KS-01 in 2010[17]
    • Running mate: Rosemary Hansen, Barnett's wife
  • Jeff Colyer, incumbent Governor[18]
  • Patrick Kucera, businessman[20]
    • Running Mate: Patricia Reitz[21]
  • Tyler Ruzich, high school student[22]
    • Running mate: Dominic Scavuzzo, high school student
  • Ken Selzer, Kansas Insurance Commissioner[23]
    • Running mate: Jen Sanderson, businesswoman[24]
  • Joseph Tutera Jr., high school student[25]
    • Running mate: Phillip Clemente, high school student

Withdrew
  • Wink Hartman, businessman and candidate for KS-04 in 2010[26] (ran for lieutenant governor)[27] Hartman joined Kris Kobach's campaign as his Lieutenant Gubernatorial candidate.

Endorsements
Jeff Colyer
Local and statewide politicians
Organizations

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Jim
Barnett		 Jeff
Colyer		 Wink
Hartman		 Kris
Kobach		 Ken
Selzer		 Other Undecided
Remington (R) August 3–5, 2018 2,769 ± 2.0% 14% 34% – 32% 9% 3%[37] 10%
The Trafalgar Group (R) July 30 – August 2, 2018 1,546 ± 2.4% 11% 36% – 43% 5% 4%[37] –
Remington (R) August 2, 2018 859 ± 3.3% 13% 32% – 32% 9% 3%[37] 11%
JMC Analytics (R-Kobach) July 24–26, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 11% 25% – 34% 8% 2%[38] 20%
Remington (R) May 14–15, 2018 1,441 ± 2.6% 9% 29% – 27% 5% – 30%
JMC Analytics (R-Kobach) March 15–17, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 10% 18% – 31% 4% – 36%
Remington (R) February 13–14, 2018 1,806 ± 2.3% 8% 23% 5% 21% 3% 3%[39] 37%
Moore Information (R) February 11, 2018 – – – 20% 6% 26% 11% – 38%

Results
Results by county:
  Kobach—50–60%
  Kobach—40–50%
  Kobach—30–40%
  Kobach/Colyer tie—40–50%
  Colyer—30–40%
  Colyer—40–50%
  Colyer—50–60%
  Colyer—70–80%
  Selzer—30–40%
Republican primary results[40]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Kris Kobach 128,838 40.62
Republican Jeff Colyer (incumbent) 128,488 40.51
Republican Jim Barnett 27,993 8.83
Republican Ken Selzer 24,807 7.82
Republican Patrick Kucera 3,212 1.01
Republican Tyler Ruzich 2,276 0.72
Republican Joseph Tutera Jr. 1,559 0.49
Total votes 317,173 100.0

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary
  • Arden Andersen, physician[43]
    • Running mate: Dale Cowsert, businessman
  • Jack Bergeson, high school student[44]
    • Running mate: Alexander Cline, high school student[44]
  • Carl Brewer, former Mayor of Wichita[45]
    • Running mate: Chris Morrow, former mayor of Gardner[46]
  • Josh Svaty, former Kansas Secretary of Agriculture and former state representative[47]
    • Running mate: Katrina Gier Lewison, Manhattan-Ogden USD 383 Board of Education member, veteran

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements
Josh Svaty
Statewide and local politicians

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Arden
Andersen		 Jack
Bergeson		 Carl
Brewer		 Laura
Kelly		 Josh
Svaty		 Undecided
GBA Strategies (D-Kelly) June 5–7, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 3% 2% 22% 35% 12% 25%
– – 25% 44% 12% 20%

Results
County results
Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Laura Kelly 78,746 51.5
Democratic Carl Brewer 30,693 20.1
Democratic Josh Svaty 26,722 17.5
Democratic Arden Andersen 12,845 8.4
Democratic Jack Bergeson 3,850 2.5
Total votes 152,856 100.0

Independent candidates

Candidates

On the ballot

Failed to qualify
  • Ilan Cohen, high school student from Maryland[64]
  • Aaron Coleman, college student (write-in)[61]
  • Max Correa, college student from North Carolina [65]
  • Joe Larry Hunter, former inmate[66][67]
  • Andy Maskin, New York City Advertiser[68][69][70]
    • Running mate: Scott Goodwin, Connecticut Advertiser
  • Victor Redko, McGill University student[71][72]
  • Jared Rogers, University of Pennsylvania student[73]
  • Nicholas Schrieber, college student from Delaware[74]
    • Running mate: Matthew Ueckermann, college student from Maryland[74]
  • Conner Shelton, college student from Pennsylvania[75]

Libertarian convention

Candidates

Nominated
  • Jeff Caldwell, executive committee member for the Libertarian Party of Kansas[76]
    • Running mate: Mary Gerlt

Withdrew

General election

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[79] Tossup October 26, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[80] Tossup November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[81] Lean D November 5, 2018
Real Clear Politics[82] Tossup November 5, 2018
Daily Kos[83] Tossup November 5, 2018
Fox News[84] Tossup November 5, 2018
Politico[85] Tossup November 5, 2018
Governing[86] Tossup November 5, 2018
The Washington Post[87] Tossup November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[88] Tossup November 5, 2018

Debates
Dates Location Kelly Kobach Orman Link
September 6, 2018 Overland Park, Kansas Participant Participant Participant Full debate - YouTube
October 30, 2018 Wichita, Kansas Participant Participant Participant Full debate - C-SPAN

Endorsements
Laura Kelly (D)
Federal politicians
Statewide and local politicians
Labor unions
Organizations
Newspapers and news websites
Kris Kobach (R)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Statewide and local politicians
Individuals
Organizations
Greg Orman (I)
Organisations

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Kris
Kobach
(R)		 Laura
Kelly
(D)		 Greg
Orman
(I)		 Jeff
Caldwell
(L)		 Other Undecided
Emerson College October 26–28, 2018 976 ± 3.3% 44% 43% 8% – 1% 4%
Ipsos October 17–27, 2018 986 ± 3.6% 41% 43% 9% – 2% 5%
Public Policy Polling (D-Western States Strategies) October 19–20, 2018 698 ± 3.7% 41% 41% 10% 2% 0%[138] 6%
Remington (R) September 30 – October 1, 2018 1,680 ± 2.4% 41% 42% 10% 2% 1%[139] 4%
Emerson College September 26–28, 2018 938 ± 3.5% 37% 36% 9% – 3% 15%
Fort Hays State University August 22 – September 25, 2018 324 – 36% 40% 10% – 5% –
Civiqs (D-Crawford County Dems) September 21–24, 2018 1,178 ± 3.4% 39% 41% 9% 5% 0%[138] 5%
Public Policy Polling (D-Pottawatomie County Dems) September 12–13, 2018 618 – 39% 38% 9% 1% 2%[140] 12%
Public Policy Polling (D-KNEA PAC) August 24–26, 2018 877 – 39% 38% 9% 1% 2%[140] 11%
Remington (R) July 19–20, 2018 1,189 ± 2.9% 35% 36% 12% – – 17%

Results
Kansas gubernatorial election, 2018[141]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Democratic Laura Kelly 506,727 48.01% +1.88%
Republican Kris Kobach 453,645 42.98% -6.84%
Independent Greg Orman 68,590 6.50% N/A
Libertarian Jeff Caldwell 20,020 1.90% -2.15%
Independent Rick Kloos 6,584 0.62% N/A
Total votes 1,055,566 100.00% N/A
Democratic gain from Republican

Maps
  • Support for Orman by county:
      >16%
      14–16%
      12–14%
      10–12%
      8–10%
      6–8%
      4–6%
      2–4%
gollark: I mean, there was this person who said that "any technology which takes away jobs from humans should be banned", and I don't see how you would reasonably end up thinking that.
gollark: I feel the same about some views. Some make some sense to me, some... don't really.
gollark: It is, admittedly, not particularly interactive.
gollark: Also, if you have https://lucasnorth.uk/sapply/ results you should submit them to me for my interactive visualizer: https://osmarks.tk/polcomp-visualizer.html
gollark: > We should just make every state a different political extreme and let whoever likes it most in a place live thereI actually *would* like that, at larger scales, which is why I would not really support unified world government.

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  119. Trump, Donald J. (August 6, 2018). "Kris Kobach, a strong and early supporter of mine, is running for Governor of the Great State of Kansas. He is a fantastic guy who loves his State and our Country - he will be a GREAT Governor and has my full & total Endorsement! Strong on Crime, Border & Military. VOTE TUESDAY!".
  120. Trump, Donald J. (August 15, 2018). "My friend and very early supporter Kris Kobach won the Republican Nomination for Governor of Kansas last night in a tough race against a very fine opponent. Kris will win in November and be a great Governor. He has my complete and total Endorsement!".
  121. Pence, Mike (August 15, 2018). "Congratulations to @KrisKobach1787 on his primary victory in the governor's race in Kansas. Kris ran a great campaign in a competitive primary with a good man, @drjeffcolyer. We look forward to campaigning to victory with him in November!".
  122. Kris W. Kobach. "It was my honor to work with former Attorney General John Ashcroft at the Justice Department to secure our country. Thank you General Ashcroft for your support of my campaign. You can watch the video here. #ksleg #ksgov". Twitter.
  123. Kris W. Kobach. "Sen. Pat Roberts is a fighter for Kansas families and farmers and I am honored to have his endorsement. He knows it is important for KS to have a governor who will work with President Trump to make KS an affordable place to do business, create jobs & raise a family. #ksleg #ksgov". Twitter.
  124. Kris W. Kobach. "Thank you Rep. @RonEstesKS for your endorsement! You've worked hard as state treasurer & in Congress to return money to taxpayers, including with the Trump tax cuts. We share the same Kansas values and I look forward to working with you so we can grow Kansas. #ksleg #ksgov". Twitter.
  125. Woodall, Hunter; Lowry, Bryan (August 16, 2018). "In a few hours, Gov. Colyer went from prepping for a recount to endorsing his rival". Kansas City Star.
  126. https://twitter.com/KrisKobach1787/status/1029537682886680576%5B%5D
  127. Ryan, Courtney (July 25, 2018). "Senate leaders weigh in on Kansas governor's race". KSN.com.
  128. Shorman, Jonathan (May 16, 2018). "Kobach campaign shake-up: Consultant, aide are out as race intensifies". The Wichita Eagle.
  129. Kris W. Kobach. "Thank you Goodland Mayor Brian Linin for your endorsement today during the #RemainRed bus tour stop in Goodland. You have positioned Goodland for long term success and I look forward to working with you as governor! #ksleg #ksgov". Twitter.
  130. Dulle, Brian (November 8, 2017). "Fox News' Sean Hannity endorses Kobach for Kansas governor". KSNT. Retrieved November 10, 2017.
  131. Woodall, Hunter (October 16, 2017). "Donald Trump Jr. coming to Kansas to campaign for Kobach". The Kansas City Star. Retrieved November 10, 2017.
  132. "Ann Coulter on Twitter". Twitter. Retrieved May 24, 2018.
  133. Starling, Nick (June 24, 2018). "Ted Nugent campaigns with KS Gov candidate Kris Kobach". Retrieved July 30, 2018.
  134. Kris W. Kobach. "America's Toughest Sheriff, Joe Arpaio, endorses #TeamKobach. #ksleg #ksgov". Twitter.
  135. Kite, Allison (August 31, 2018). "Kris Kobach wins support from labor union that previously backed Democrats". The Kansas City Star.
  136. "NRA Endorses Kobach for Kansas Governor". NRA-ILA. September 21, 2018.
  137. "KANSAS CHAMBER PAC ENDORSES IN GOVERNOR AND ATTORNEY GENERAL RACES". Kansas Chamber.
  138. Rick Kloos (I) with 0%
  139. Rick Kloos (I) with 1%
  140. Rick Kloos (I) with 2%
  141. http://www.kssos.org/elections/18elec/2018_General_Election_Official_Votes_Cast.pdf
Debates
Official campaign websites
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