2018 Alaska gubernatorial election

The 2018 Alaska gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of Alaska. In the primaries for recognized political parties, candidates for governor and lieutenant governor run separately. The winners of each respective primary for governor and lieutenant governor then become a joint ticket in the general election for their political party. Incumbent independent governor Bill Walker was running for reelection in what was originally a three-way race between Walker, Republican nominee Mike Dunleavy, a former State Senator, and Democratic nominee Mark Begich, a former U.S. Senator. However, Walker dropped out on October 19, 2018 and endorsed Begich. In spite of Walker dropping out, Dunleavy defeated Begich in what would become the only gubernatorial gain by a Republican candidate in 2018.

2018 Alaska gubernatorial election
November 6, 2018
 
Nominee Mike Dunleavy Mark Begich
Party Republican Democratic
Running mate Kevin Meyer Debra Call
Popular vote 145,631 125,739
Percentage 51.4% 44.4%
State house district results
Dunleavy:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Begich:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%
Governor before election

Bill Walker
Independent

 Elected Governor

Mike Dunleavy
Republican

Elections in Alaska

Independent candidates for governor and lieutenant governor may form a ticket that will appear on the general election ballot, provided that both candidates on the ticket collect enough valid petition signatures, as mandated by the Alaska Division of Elections.

Democratic-Libertarian-Independence primary

Candidates from the Alaska Democratic Party, Alaska Libertarian Party and Alaskan Independence Party appear on the same ballot, with the highest-placed candidate from each party receiving that party's nomination. In October 2017 the AKDP sued for the right to allow non-Democrats to compete for and win the Democratic nomination, which was ultimately decided in their favor in April 2018.[1] This move was widely thought to benefit incumbent Gov. Bill Walker, to foreclose the possibility of a Democratic nominee splitting the vote with Walker against a Republican nominee. However, with the entry of former senator Mark Begich into the race, Walker withdrew from the Democratic primary and forged ahead with a fully independent bid for reelection.[2]

Governor

Declared
  • Mark Begich (Democratic), former U.S. Senator[3][4]
  • William S. "Billy" Toien (Libertarian), Libertarian candidate for Alaska Governor in 2010[5]

Polling

Endorsements

Results
Results by state house district:
  Begich—80–90%
  Begich—70–80%
  Begich—60–70%
Democratic-Libertarian-Independence primary results[6]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Mark Begich 33,451 85.3
Libertarian William Toien 5,790 14.8
Total votes 39,241 100.0

Lieutenant governor

Declared
  • Debra Call (Democratic), Cook Inlet Tribal Council Board of Directors Representative[7][8]

Withdrawn

Results
Results by state house district:
  Call—80–90%
  Call—70–80%
  Call—60–70%
Democratic-Libertarian-Independence primary results[6]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Debra Call 34,291 100.0
Total votes 34,291 100.0

Republican primary

Governor

Nominated

Eliminated in primary
  • Dorian Colbry
  • Thomas A. "Tom" Gordon[5]
  • Gerald Heikes, perennial candidate
  • Merica Hlatcu
  • Michael Sheldon
  • Mead Treadwell, former lieutenant governor[10]

[11]

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Mike
Dunleavy		 Scott
Hawkins		 Mead
Treadwell		 Other Undecided
Dittman Research (R-Dunleavy for Alaska) June 5–7, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 46% 7% 19% 3% 25%

Results
Results by state house district:
  Dunleavy—80–90%
  Dunleavy—70–80%
  Dunleavy—60–70%
  Dunleavy—50–60%
  Dunleavy—40–50%
  Dunleavy—30–40%
  Treadwell—40–50%
Republican primary results[6]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Mike Dunleavy 43,802 61.5
Republican Mead Treadwell 22,780 32.0
Republican Michael Sheldon 1,640 2.3
Republican Merica Hlatcu 1,064 1.5
Republican Thomas Gordon 884 1.4
Republican Gerald Heikes 499 0.7
Republican Darin Colbry 416 0.6
Total votes 71,195 100.0

Lieutenant governor

Declared
  • Lynn Gattis, former state representative and candidate for the state senate in 2016[20]
  • Edie Grunwald, retired air force colonel and former human resources director for the Alaska National Guard[21]
  • Sharon Jackson, activist and former congressional staffer[22]
  • Kevin Meyer, state senator and former president of the Alaska Senate[23]
  • Gary Stevens, state senator[24][25]
  • Stephen Wright, air force veteran[26]

Declined

Results
Results by state house district:
  Meyer—50–60%
  Meyer—40–50%
  Meyer—30–40%
  Meyer—<30%
  Grunwald—<30%
  Grunwald—30–40%
  Grunwald—40–50%
  Stevens—<30%
  Stevens—50–60%
  Jackson—<30%
Republican primary results[6]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Kevin Meyer 23,838 35.8
Republican Edie Grunwald 18,097 27.1
Republican Gary Stevens 8,123 12.2
Republican Lynn Gattis 6,156 10.4
Republican Sharon Jackson 5,394 8.1
Republican Stephen Wright 4,321 6.5
Total votes 66,671 100.0

Independents

Governor

Withdrew

Lieutenant governor

Withdrew

General election

Campaign

Independent candidate and incumbent governor Bill Walker announced on October 19 that he was suspending his campaign and endorsing Mark Begich, three days after Walker's running mate and incumbent lieutenant governor Byron Mallott resigned from office (and amid low polling numbers just three weeks before election day).[38][39] However, Walker and Mallott still remained on the ballot as the deadline to withdraw was on September 4.[40]

Debates
Dates Location Dunleavy Begich Link
October 25, 2018 Anchorage, Alaska Participant Participant Full debate - C-SPAN

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[41] Lean R October 26, 2018
Inside Elections[42] Tilt R November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[43] Lean R November 5, 2018
Daily Kos[44] Lean R November 5, 2018
Fox News[45][lower-alpha 1] Tossup November 5, 2018
Politico[46] Lean R November 5, 2018
Governing[47] Tossup November 5, 2018
The Washington Post[48] Lean R November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[49] Lean R November 5, 2018

Endorsements
Mark Begich (D)
Statewide and local politicians
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Mike Dunleavy (R)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
Federal politicians
State and Local politicians
Individuals
Organizations
Alaska Native Corporation
Bill Walker (I) (withdrew)
Organizations

Polling
with Bill Walker (campaign suspended), Mike Dunleavy, and Mark Begich
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Bill
Walker (I)		 Mike
Dunleavy (R)		 Mark
Begich (D)		 Billy
Toien (L)		 Other Undecided
Alaska Survey Research October 26–29, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 8% 43% 42% 3% – 4%
Alaska Survey Research October 19–22, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 5% 48% 44% – – 3%
Alaska Survey Research October 12–14, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 27% 43% 26% – – 4%
Public Policy Polling (D) October 11–12, 2018 645 – 24% 43% 23% – – 9%
Alaska Survey Research October 1–6, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 27% 47% 23% – – 4%
Alaska Survey Research September 21–25, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 23% 44% 29% – – 4%
Harstad Strategic Research August 13–16, 2018 602 ± 4.0% 26% 36% 24% – 2% 12%
Patinkin Research Strategies (I-Walker) June 22–28, 2018 800 ± 3.4% 28% 36% 22% – – 15%
Harstad Strategic Research (D) June 21–26, 2018 602 ± 4.0% 28% 32% 28% – – 12%
Alaska Survey Research June 15–21, 2018 654 ± 3.8% 23% 38% 33% – – 6%
with Mark Begich and Mike Dunleavy
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Mark
Begich (D)		 Mike
Dunleavy (R)		 Undecided
Alaska Survey Research October 12–14, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 45% 52% 4%
Alaska Survey Research October 1–6, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 41% 55% 5%
Alaska Survey Research September 21–25, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 47% 50% 3%
Harstad Strategic Research August 13–16, 2018 602 ± 4.0% 46% 44% –
Harstad Strategic Research (D) June 21–26, 2018 602 ± 4.0% 50% 41% 9%
Alaska Survey Research March 25–29, 2018 761 ± 3.6% 53% 42% 5%

Results
Alaska gubernatorial election, 2018[80]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Republican Mike Dunleavy 145,631 51.44% +5.56%
Democratic Mark Begich 125,739 44.41% +44.41%
Independent Bill Walker (incumbent) (withdrawn) 5,757 2.03% -46.07%
Libertarian William Toien 5,402 1.91% -1.30%
Write-in 605 0.21% -0.11%
Total votes 283,134 100.00% N/A
Republican gain from Independent

Notes
  1. The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races
gollark: Anyway, what I was going to say: with the firms' discords or groups or whatever the meme-picking process is somewhat decentralized. With the rule, you're seemingly trying to bring that all *here*, centralized, and the rule enforcement seems as if it could lead to problems too.
gollark: Hmm, there's a "minutes to hide comment scores" box, at least.
gollark: I'll check, I haven't used subreddit settings in ages.
gollark: Why not just turn on the setting to show it to everyone anyway? I'm sure that's a thing.
gollark: Allowing *other people* to do the same thing you're planning to would arguably be better, since then there would be people able to pick what they like other than just the moderators.

References
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Official gubernatorial campaign websites
Official lieutenant gubernatorial campaign websites
Alaska Division of Elections
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