2010 Florida gubernatorial election

The 2010 Florida gubernatorial election took place on November 2, 2010. Republican-turned-Independent incumbent Governor Charlie Crist chose not to run for a second term. He instead ran (unsuccessfully) for the Senate seat vacated by Mel Martínez.[1] This resulted in an open race for Governor of Florida in which Republican Rick Scott narrowly defeated Democrat Alex Sink.

2010 Florida gubernatorial election
November 2, 2010
 
Nominee Rick Scott Alex Sink
Party Republican Democratic
Running mate Jennifer Carroll Rod Smith
Popular vote 2,619,335 2,557,785
Percentage 48.9% 47.7%
County Results

Scott:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%

Sink:      40-50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Governor before election

Charlie Crist
Independent

 Elected Governor

Rick Scott
Republican

Elections in Florida
Government

Despite mixed to unfavorable ratings, Rick Scott benefited greatly from the midterm GOP wave in which Republicans made significant gains across the country.[2] Scott was one of six Republican gubernatorial pick-ups nationwide (counting Crist as an Independent).

The tight and highly contentious election was one of the standout races in 2010. Despite not professing direct allegiance to the movement,[3] Scott benefited from support and endorsement by Tea Party activists,[2][4] an influential conservative voting bloc of the 2010 midterms. Furthermore, Scott ran aggressively against the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare), and exit polls indicated considerable support for that position.[5]

Candidates

Republican

Democratic

Independence Party of Florida
  • Peter L. Allen, electrical inspector

No party affiliation
  • Michael E. Arth, policy analyst and urban designer who entered the race as a Democrat in June 2009 and later switched to no party affiliation in June 2010
  • Farid Khavari, economist, author, and small business owner
  • Daniel Imperato[6]
  • Calvin Clarence "C.C." Reed

Primary results

Democratic

Candidates

Alex Sink, the CFO of Florida, was mentioned as a possible candidate to run for Senate or Governor in 2010,[7][8] but initially declined. When Charlie Crist announced he would not run for re-election, Sink immediately announced her campaign for governor. Sink was the wife of Bill McBride, who ran unsuccessfully for governor in 2002.

Sink faced only token opposition in the primary. Her lone opponent was Socialist Brian Moore.[9] On primary day, Sink won the Democratic nomination with nearly 77% of the vote.

County results
Democratic primary results[10]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Alex Sink 663,802 76.9%
Democratic Brian Moore 199,896 23.1%
Total votes 863,698 100.0%

Republican

In May 2009, Republican incumbent governor Charlie Crist announced he would not run for re-election, and instead would run for U.S. Senate.[11] The move immediately turned the race competitive, as GOP-hopefuls lined up to run for the open seat. Former congressman and Florida Attorney General Bill McCollum emerged as the early favorite. McCollum had previously lost the election for Senate in 2000, and lost the Republican nomination for Senate in 2004. This would be his third attempt at a major statewide campaign.

Just before the deadline, Rick Scott jumped into the primary fight. Scott started dumping millions of his own personal fortune into the race.[12] The race quickly became one of the most expensive and "nasty" primary campaigns in recent Florida history.[13] Scott and McCollum lashed out with very negative attacks against each other. Scott ran as a political "outsider", and led some early polls, but McCollum re-took the lead in polls just before primary day. Scott benefited in the absentee voting, while McCollum expected to make up the difference based on turnout. On primary day, Scott won the nomination with just over 46% of the vote. The dejected McCollum team reluctantly conceded after midnight.

County results
Republican primary results[10]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Rick Scott 595,474 46.4%
Republican Bill McCollum 557,427 43.4%
Republican Mike McCalister 130,056 10.1%
Total votes 1,282,957 100.0%

Campaign

The race was dominated by the two major party candidates and spending on their behalf. By the October 25, 2010, Tampa debate between Scott and Sink, Scott had spent $60 million of his own money on the campaign compared to Sink's $28 million.[14] Total campaign expenditure for the race exceeded $100 million, far exceeding any previous spending for a governor's race in Florida.[15] Scott spent $78 million of his personal wealth in the race.[16] Sink made an issue of Scott's connections to Columbia/HCA, a Medicare billing fraud scandal.[2]

One of the turning points in the campaign came during the debate. During a commercial break, Sink's make-up artist delivered a text message on her cell phone to Sink, in direct violation of the debate rules. The rules infraction was immediately pointed out by Scott and the debate moderators.[17] Sink's team was accused of cheating during the debate, and the aide who delivered the message was fired from the campaign the next morning. Afterwards, media and observers were very critical of the gaffe.

Polling

Democratic primary

Republican primary

General election
Poll source Dates administered Bud Chiles (I) Rick Scott (R) Alex Sink (D)
Mason-Dixon May 3–5, 2010 — 36% 38%
Rasmussen Reports May 16, 2010 — 41% 40%
Rasmussen Reports June 7, 2010 — 45% 40%
Quinnipiac June 7, 2010 13% 35% 26%
Florida Chamber of Commerce June 9–13, 2010 15% 31% 26%
Ipsos/Reuters July 9–11, 2010 12% 34% 31%
Public Policy Polling July 16–18, 2010 13% 30% 36%
Quinnipiac July 22–27, 2010 14% 29% 27%
The Florida Poll July 24–28, 2010 11% 30% 28%
Rasmussen Reports August 2, 2010 16% 35% 31%
Ipsos/Florida Newspapers August 6–10, 2010 14% 30% 29%
Mason-Dixon August 9–11, 2010 17% 24% 40%
Quinnipiac August 11–16, 2010 12% 29% 33%
Public Policy Polling August 21–22, 2010 8% 34% 41%
Rasmussen Reports August 25, 2010 4% 45% 42%
Rasmussen Reports September 1, 2010 — 45% 44%
Sunshine State News September 1–7, 2010 42% 44%
CNN September 2–7, 2010 42% 49%
FOX News September 11, 2010 41% 49%
Reuters/Ipsos September 12, 2010 45% 47%
Mason-Dixon September 20–22, 2010 40% 47%
Rasmussen Reports September 22, 2010 50% 44%
Quinnipiac September 23–28, 2010 49% 43%
CNN September 24–28, 2010 47% 45%
Sunshine State News September 26 – October 3, 2010 44% 42%
TCPalm.com / Zogby September 27–29, 2010 39% 41%
Florida Chamber of Commerce September 27–30, 2010 46% 42%
Rasmussen Reports September 30, 2010 46% 41%
Mason-Dixon October 4–6, 2010 40% 44%
Miami-Dade College October 5, 2010 52% 46%
Quinnipiac October 6–8, 2010 45% 44%
Rasmussen Reports October 7, 2010 50% 47%
PPP October 9–10, 2010 41% 46%
Susquehanna October 12–13, 2010 45% 48%
Suffolk October 14–17, 2010 38% 45%
CNN Opinion Research October 15–19, 2010 49% 46%
Ipsos/ St. Pete Times October 15–19, 2010 44% 41%
Rasmussen Reports October 18, 2010 50% 44%
Naples Daily News / Zogby October 18–21, 2010 39% 43%
Quinnipiac October 18–24, 2010 41% 45%
Susquehanna October 20, 2010 45% 45%
Susquehanna/ Sunshine State News October 24–25, 2010 47% 45%
Univ. of South Fla. Polytechnic October 23–27, 2010 44% 39%
Quinnipiac October 25–31, 2010 43% 44%
Mason-Dixon October 26–27, 2010 43% 46%
Rasmussen Reports October 27, 2010 48% 45%
Susquehanna/ Sunshine State October 29–31, 2010 46% 49%
Public Policy Polling October 30–31, 2010 47% 48%

Hypothetical Polls

Election results

The 2010 governor's race was one of Florida's closest, decided by just over 60,000 votes. Unlike the concurrent Senate race, the governor's race remained in doubt late into the night. When polls closed, Scott had a lead, but as the night progressed, the margin narrowed. The next day, with over 99% of precincts reporting, Scott maintained about a 1% lead in the raw vote.[2] Despite a small number of still-uncounted ballots from Palm Beach County, Sink's chances of winning were negligible, as Scott was still ahead by over 50,000 – much more than the 3,000 uncounted ballots, and more importantly, still above the threshold of 0.5% to trigger a mandatory recount.[2] Sink conceded on Wednesday.

Exit polls showed that Scott won among independents and the two candidates split the Hispanic vote.[2]

2010 Florida gubernatorial election[18]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Republican Rick Scott 2,619,335 48.87% -3.31%
Democratic Alex Sink 2,557,785 47.72% +2.62%
Independence Peter Allen 123,831 2.31%
Independent C. C. Reed 18,842 0.35%
Independent Michael E. Arth 18,644 0.35%
Independent Daniel Imperato 13,690 0.26%
Independent Farid Khavari 7,487 0.14%
Write-ins 121 0.00%
Plurality 61,550 1.15% -5.92%
Turnout 5,359,735
Republican gain from Independent Swing
gollark: It's random? I thought it was 10.
gollark: It appears that my primality test is undergoing cryoapiomemes.
gollark: And return 0 for cooperate, 1 for defect.
gollark: You get opponent past moves and your past moves apparently.
gollark: https://termbin.com/39vd

See also
  • List of Governors of Florida
  • United States gubernatorial elections, 2010

References
  1. Martinez resigned his seat in December 2008, and Crist appointed Republican George LeMieux to serve the remainder of Martinez's term. LeMieux declined to run for election, and Crist was one of three major candidates in the election for U.S. Senate.
  2. "Money, message, mad electorate make Scott Fla. gov". The Washington Post. November 3, 2010. Retrieved October 21, 2014.
  3. Derby, Kevin (September 2, 2010). "TEA Party Backs Rick Scott for Governor in November". Sunshine State News. Retrieved October 17, 2014.
  4. Dockery, Paula (June 5, 2014). "Paula Dockery: Tea party stands by Rick Scott". Florida Today. Retrieved October 17, 2014.
  5. "Exit Polls – Florida 2010 Governor". CNN. Retrieved October 17, 2014.
  6. "Florida Election Candidate Tracking System entry for Imperato". Archived from the original on July 29, 2010. Retrieved June 23, 2010.
  7. "Florida Democrats revel in gained ground". Tampa Bay Times. August 25, 2008. Archived from the original on October 13, 2012. Retrieved August 29, 2010.
  8. Cotterell, Bill (January 16, 2009). "Alex Sink won't run for U.S. Senate in 2010". Tallahassee Democrat.
  9. Kam, Dara (July 24, 2010). "Low-profile Alex Sink faces even more obscure opponent in Democratic race for Florida governor". Palm Beach Post. Retrieved October 17, 2014.
  10. "Florida Gubernatorial Primary Results". Politico. August 24, 2010. Retrieved August 24, 2010.
  11. "Florida governor announces run for Senate". CNN. May 12, 2009. Retrieved October 17, 2014.
  12. Deslatte, Aaron (July 30, 2010). "Ruling lets Rick Scott spend all he wants in governor's race vs. Bill McCollum". The Orlando Sentinel. Retrieved October 17, 2014.
  13. Deslatte, Aaron (August 25, 2010). "Rick Scott beats Bill McCollum to end nasty GOP governor's primary fight". The Orlando Sentinel. Retrieved October 17, 2014.
  14. "Governor's Race: Rick, Scott, Alex Sink save harshest word for last debate". Orlando Sentinel,
  15. Baribeau, Simone. "Florida Republican Scott Elected Governor After Record Spending". Bloomberg. Retrieved December 9, 2011.
  16. Madison, Lucy (April 14, 2011). "Rick Scott Wins Tight Florida Governor Race". CBS News. Retrieved October 17, 2014.
  17. "Aide fired over Florida debate foul". CNN. October 26, 2010. Retrieved October 17, 2014.
  18. https://doe.dos.state.fl.us/elections/resultsarchive/Index.asp?ElectionDate=11/2/2010&DATAMODE= Archived October 3, 2011, at the Wayback Machine
Official campaign websites (Archived)
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