Frozen conflict

In international relations, a frozen conflict is a situation in which active armed conflict has been brought to an end, but no peace treaty or other political framework resolves the conflict to the satisfaction of the combatants. Therefore, legally the conflict can start again at any moment, creating an environment of insecurity and instability.

Geopolitics of Eastern Europe, early-2014, showing the frozen conflict zones of Transnistria, Crimea, Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Donbass (numbered 1–5), as well as Artsakh (shown as darker shaded region within Azerbaijan), Northern Cyprus (lighter region within Cyprus), and Kosovo (beige region within Serbia). Israel, the Palestinian territories, and the Golan Heights also appear on the map, although they are not highlighted. Frozen conflict zones elsewhere in the world do not appear.

The term has been commonly used for post-Soviet conflicts, but it has also often been applied to other perennial territorial disputes.[1][2][3] The de facto situation that emerges may match the de jure position asserted by one party to the conflict; for example, Russia claims and effectively controls Crimea following the 2014 Crimean crisis despite Ukraine's continuing claim to the region. Alternatively, the de facto situation may not match either side's official claim. The division of Korea is an example of the latter situation: both the Republic of Korea and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea officially assert claims to the entire peninsula; however, there exists a well-defined border between the two countries' areas of control.

Frozen conflicts sometimes result in partially recognized states. For example, the Republic of South Ossetia, a product of the frozen Georgian–Ossetian conflict, is recognized by eight other states, including five UN members; the other three of these entities are partially recognized states themselves.

Examples

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In post-Soviet territories
Main article: Post-Soviet conflicts

Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, a number of conflicts arose in areas of some of the post-Soviet states, usually where the new international borders did not match the ethnic affiliations of local populations. These conflicts have largely remained "frozen", with disputed areas under the de facto control of entities other than the countries to which they are internationally recognized as belonging, and which still consider those areas to be part of their territory.

Transnistria
Further information: Transnistria, Transnistria conflict, and Political status of Transnistria

Since the ceasefire which ended the Transnistria War (1990–1992), the Russian-influenced breakaway republic of Transnistria has controlled the easternmost strip of the territory of Moldova. The republic is internationally unrecognized, and Moldova continues to claim the territory.

Nagorno-Karabakh
Further information: Nagorno-Karabakh, Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, and Political status of Nagorno-Karabakh

Nagorno-Karabakh is a disputed territory, internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan,[4] but most of the region is governed by the Republic of Artsakh (formerly named Nagorno-Karabakh Republic), a de facto independent state with an Armenian ethnic majority established on the basis of the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast of the Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic. Azerbaijan has not exercised political authority over the region since the advent of the Karabakh movement in 1988. Since the end of the Nagorno-Karabakh War in 1994, representatives of the governments of Armenia and Azerbaijan have been holding peace talks mediated by the OSCE Minsk Group on the region's disputed status.

South Ossetia and Abkhazia
Further information: Abkhaz–Georgian conflict, Georgian–Ossetian conflict, and Occupied territories of Georgia

The Abkhaz–Georgian conflict and Georgian–Ossetian conflict have led to the creation of two largely unrecognized states within the internationally recognized territory of Georgia. The 1991–92 South Ossetia War and the 1992-93 War in Abkhazia, followed by the Russo-Georgian War of August 2008, have left the Russian-backed Republic of South Ossetia – the State of Alania and Republic of Abkhazia in de facto control of the South Ossetia and Abkhazia regions in north and northwest Georgia.

Crimea
Further information: Annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation, Political status of Crimea, and Russian military intervention in Ukraine (2014–present)

In 2014, Crimea was occupied by the Russian troops without insignia while Ukraine was still recovering from large scale violence in the capital, and soon afterwards was admitted into the Russian Federation. This is widely regarded as an annexation of the peninsula by Russia, and is considered likely to result in another post-Soviet frozen conflict.[5] While there are similarities between Transnistria, Abkhazia and the current War in Donbass, where the unrecognized Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic have taken de facto control of areas in the Donbass region in eastern Ukraine, the conflict in Donbass is not a frozen conflict yet as ceasefire violations are keeping the fighting at a low tempo. However, some experts predict a frozen future for this conflict as well.[6]

Name Capital Population Area (km2) Declaration of independence Recognition by UN members Major ethnic groups De jure part of
 Transnistria Tiraspol 475,665 4,400 199009022 September 1990 none[lower-alpha 1] Moldovans (32.1%), Russians (30.4%), Ukrainians (28.8%)  Moldova
 Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) Stepanakert 150,932 11,458 199109022 September 1991 none[lower-alpha 1] Armenians (99%)  Azerbaijan
 Abkhazia Sukhumi 242,862 8,660 1990082525 August 1990 5[lower-alpha 2] Abkhaz (50.5%), Georgians (19%), Armenians (17%)[lower-alpha 3][7]  Georgia
 South Ossetia Tskhinvali 51,547 3,900 1991092828 November 1991 5[lower-alpha 2] Ossetians (89.9%), Georgians (7.4%).
 Republic of Crimea Simferopol 1,891,465 26,100 2014031818 March 2014[lower-alpha 4] Considered part of Russia by 10 others[lower-alpha 5] Russians (65.2%), Ukrainians (16.0%), Crimean Tatars (12.6%)  Ukraine
 Donetsk People's Republic[lower-alpha 6] Donetsk 2,302,444[8] —[lower-alpha 7] 2014051212 May 2014 none Ukrainians (56.9%), Russians (38.2%)[lower-alpha 8]
 Luhansk People's Republic[lower-alpha 6] Luhansk 1,433,280[9] —[lower-alpha 7] 2014051212 May 2014 none Ukrainians (58.0%), Russians (39.1%)[lower-alpha 9]

In Asia

Kashmir
Further information: Partition of India, Kashmir, and Kashmir conflict

India and Pakistan have fought at least three wars over the disputed region of Kashmir in 1947, 1965, and 1999. India claims the entire area of the former princely state of Jammu & Kashmir as per the Instrument of Accession (Jammu and Kashmir)[10] signed aftermath of partition, of which India administers approximately 43%. Pakistan also claims it since the partition, which controls approximately 37% of the region and encourages proxy-war tactics in Kashmir. [11][12] The remaining territory is controlled by the People's Republic of China, which few areas occupied during the Sino-Indian War and few parts were gifted by Pakistan to China.

Mainland China and Taiwan
Further information: Chinese Civil War, Cross-Strait relations, One-China policy, Political status of Taiwan, and 1992 Consensus

The conflict between mainland China and Taiwan has been frozen since 1949. Officially, both the People's Republic of China (PRC) based in Beijing and the Republic of China (ROC) based in Taipei consider themselves to be the sole legitimate government of the entirety of China.[13] While the latter especially is not recognized by a majority of countries and states internationally, it remains a de facto independent administration in Taiwan and several other islands, and the PRC's de facto administration is in Mainland China, Hong Kong and Macau.

Korea
Further information: Division of Korea and Korean conflict

The Korean conflict was frozen from 1953, when a ceasefire ended the Korean War; until 27 April 2018, when the two countries agreed to end the war formally. Both North Korea and South Korea governments claim the entire Korean peninsula, while de facto control is divided along the military demarcation line in the Korean Demilitarized Zone.

Saddam Hussein's Iraq
Further information: Gulf War, Iraqi no-fly zones, List of United Nations Security Council resolutions concerning Iraq, and 2003 invasion of Iraq

Hostilities of the 1991 Gulf War ended when the United Nations and Iraq signed a ceasefire agreement on April 3, 1991; Kuwait was liberated from being annexed by Iraq and its sovereignty was recognized by the latter. Due to sporadic conflicts through the Iraqi no-fly zones, the war remained frozen for the time being until 12 years later when the United States and its "coalition of the willing" launched the invasion of Iraq and removed dictator Saddam Hussein from power over the non-compliance with UN Resolutions passed against Iraq following the 1991 war.

Israel, Palestine, and the Golan Heights
Further information: Israeli–Palestinian conflict, Arab–Israeli conflict, Political status of Palestine, Status of Jerusalem, and Status of the Golan Heights

The Arab–Israeli conflict is a perennial conflict between Israel and its Arab neighbours, including the Palestinian National Authority. Israel refuses to recognize Palestinian statehood, while some Arab countries and groups refuse to recognize Israel. Israel has de facto control of East Jerusalem and claims it as its integral territory, although it is not internationally recognized as such. Similarly most of the Golan Heights are currently under de facto Israeli control and civil administration, whereas most of the international community rejects that claim. The United States formally recognized Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights in 2019 through a proclamation by President Donald Trump.

In Europe and Africa

Cyprus
Further information: Cyprus dispute and Turkish military forces in Northern Cyprus

The Cyprus dispute has been frozen since 1974. The northern part of Cyprus is under the de facto control of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, but this is not recognized internationally except by Turkey.[14][15]

Kosovo
Further information: Kosovo conflict and Political status of Kosovo

The dispute over the status of Kosovo remains frozen since the end of the Kosovo War, fought in 1998–1999 between Yugoslav forces (the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia) and the ethnically Albanian Kosovo Liberation Army. The Kosovo region has been administered independently by the United Nations Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo since the war. Kosovo unilaterally declared its independence from Serbia in 2008, but it is not recognized by all countries worldwide, as Serbia still considers Kosovo part of its territory.[16][17]

Western Sahara
Further information: Western Sahara conflict and Political status of Western Sahara

The Western Sahara conflict has been largely frozen since a ceasefire in 1991, although various disturbances such as the Independence Intifada have broken out since then. Control of the territory of Western Sahara remains divided between the Kingdom of Morocco and the Polisario Front.[18]

gollark: Oh, I assumed you were analogizing the random future things to a giftcard, but great?
gollark: You have a good point, giftcard bad.
gollark: If it can conveniently be brought back and doesn't rely on difficult future infrastructure, I suppose.
gollark: Oh yes, right, that.
gollark: *I* would give myself future-Wikipedia (the present one fits on a cheap modern USB stick, and obviously the future will have even better storage), all interesting future scientific papers ever, a summary of the big technological/social changes which happen, and whatever future technology trinkets are fairly small and robust.

See also

Notes
  1. Recognized by other non-UN member states
  2. Russia, Nicaragua, Venezuela, Nauru and Syria
  3. From Abkhaz government’s official census data (2011). Unofficial estimates believe that the Abkhaz and Armenian populations are roughly equal in number.
  4. Federal subject of Russia
  5. Recognised as part of Russia by Afghanistan, Bolivia, Cuba, Kyrgyzstan, Nicaragua, North Korea, Syria, Sudan, Venezuela and Zimbabwe.
  6. The qualification of "frozen conflict" is debated as the War in Donbass is still ongoing.
  7. Moving conflict line
  8. Figures for the Donetsk Oblast.
  9. Figures for the Luhansk Oblast.

References
  1. Simon Tisdall (2010-09-22). "This dangerous new world of self-interested nations". The Guardian. Retrieved 2014-03-22.
  2. "North and South Korea: A Frozen Conflict on the Verge of Unfreezing?". Isn.ethz.ch. Retrieved 2014-03-22.
  3. "Europe: Frozen conflicts". The Economist. 2008-11-19. Retrieved 2014-03-22.
  4. "General Assembly adopts resolution reaffirming territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, demanding withdrawal of all Armenian forces". United Nations. 14 March 2008. Retrieved 30 Aug 2015.
  5. Will Ukraine's Crimea region be Europe's next 'frozen' conflict?, CNN, Feb 28, 2014
  6. Rusif Huseynov. Ukraine: Towards a frozen future?: The Politicon, 11 November 2015
  7. "An unlikely home". openDemocracy. 4 January 2016.
  8. "Self-proclaimed Luhansk People's Republic governs most residents". ITAR-TASS. 25 September 2014. Retrieved 25 September 2014.
    "Nowhere to Run in Eastern Ukraine". nytimes.com. 13 November 2014. Retrieved 16 November 2014.
  9. "Self-proclaimed Luhansk People's Republic governs most residents". en.itar-tass.com. 25 September 2014. Retrieved 25 September 2014.
  10. "Instrument of Accession (Jammu and Kashmir)", Wikipedia, 2019-08-27, retrieved 2019-09-02
  11. Irfan Haider (28 September 2015). "PM Nawaz urges Ban Ki-moon for plebiscite in Kashmir". Dawn. Retrieved 23 March 2017.
  12. Durrani, Atiq (4 February 2013). "PAK-INDIA Dialogue: Single-Point-Agenda: KASHMIR". PKKH. Retrieved 18 August 2013.
  13. Hudson, Christopher (2014). The China Handbook. p. 59.
  14. Foster, Peter (2016-08-21). "Hopes rise for deal to end 40-year frozen conflict in Cyprus". The Telegraph. ISSN 0307-1235. Retrieved 2018-03-20.
  15. Byrne, Sean J. (Winter 2006). "The Roles of External Ethnoguarantors and Primary Mediators in Cyprus and Northern Ireland". Conflict Resolution Quarterly. 24 (2): 149–172. doi:10.1002/crq.164. Cyprus is more of a frozen conflict, and a long-standing one, than Northern Ireland, where the peace process has in a real sense gone much further down the road to settlement.
  16. Bancroft, Ian (2008-06-09). "Ian Bancroft: A new frozen conflict in Kosovo?". the Guardian. Retrieved 2018-03-20.
  17. "KOSOVO: RUSSIA'S FIFTH FROZEN CONFLICT? - Jamestown". Jamestown. Retrieved 2018-03-20.
  18. Zivkovic, Nikola (26 December 2012). "Western Sahara: A Frozen Conflict". Journal of Regional Security. 7.
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