2018 Maryland gubernatorial election

The Maryland gubernatorial election of 2018 was held on November 6, 2018. The date included the election of the Governor, Lieutenant Governor, and all members of the Maryland General Assembly. Incumbent governor Larry Hogan and Lieutenant Governor Boyd Rutherford, both Republicans, were reelected to a second term against Democrat Ben Jealous, the former NAACP CEO, and his running mate Susan Turnbull. Hogan thus became the second Republican governor of Maryland to win reelection, the first since 1954.[1]

2018 Maryland gubernatorial election
November 6, 2018 (2018-11-06)
 
Nominee Larry Hogan Ben Jealous
Party Republican Democratic
Running mate Boyd Rutherford Susan Turnbull
Popular vote 1,275,644 1,002,639
Percentage 55.4% 43.5%
County results
Hogan:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Jealous:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Governor before election

Larry Hogan
Republican

 Elected Governor

Larry Hogan
Republican

Elections in Maryland
Government

Background

At the presidential level, Maryland is a staunchly Democratic state due to the large amount of Democratic voters in the Washington metropolitan area and Baltimore City. Maryland has not seen a Republican presidential candidate win its votes since 1988; Hillary Clinton won the state by 26 points over Donald Trump (60% to 34%) in 2016, Barack Obama defeated Mitt Romney by 26 points in 2012 (62% to 36%), and Obama defeated John McCain by 25 points in 2008 (62% to 37%).

Hogan was elected governor in 2014, defeating then-lieutenant governor Anthony G. Brown by a margin of 52–47; the result was considered one of the biggest election upsets that year.[2] Prior to Hogan's victory, Bob Ehrlich, elected in 2002, had been the only Republican elected as Governor of Maryland since Spiro Agnew. However, Ehrlich was defeated for reelection in 2006 by Martin O'Malley and defeated again in 2010, when he faced O'Malley in a rematch.

In April 2018, Hogan had a 68% approval rating, the second-highest approval of any governor in the country, only behind Governor Charlie Baker of Massachusetts, who had a 71% approval rating.[3] Despite the state's Democratic leaning, Hogan had a high approval rating among all partisan groups (65% approval from Democrats, 64% of Independents, and 81% of Republicans).[4]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominated

Declined

Endorsements
Larry Hogan
Statewide officials
State legislators
Local officials
Judges
Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers

Results
Republican primary results[40]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Larry Hogan (incumbent) 210,935 100.00%
Total votes 210,935 100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Deceased
  • Kevin Kamenetz, Baltimore County Executive (deceased May 10, 2018)[57]
    • Running mate: Valerie Ervin, senior advisor to the Working Families Party and former Montgomery County Councilmember[58]
    • (Because of Kamenetz' death, Valerie Ervin became a candidate for governor. See under "Withdrew" heading for more information.)

Withdrew
  • Maya Rockeymoore Cummings, policy consultant and wife of U.S. Representative Elijah Cummings[59]
  • Valerie Ervin, former senior advisor to the Working Families Party and former Montgomery County Councilmember[60]
    • Running mate: Marisol Johnson, former vice chair of the Baltimore County Board of Education and small businesswoman[61]
    • (Valerie Ervin, who had been the running mate of Kevin Kamenetz before he died on May 10, became a candidate for governor with Marisol Johnson as running mate on May 17. This came too late to change the primary ballot, so notices were posted at polling places informing voters that votes for Kamenetz and Ervin would be counted as votes for Ervin and Johnson. On June 12, Ervin withdrew from the race.[62])

Declined

Endorsements
Rushern Baker
U.S. Senators
Statewide officials
State legislators
Individuals
  • Valerie Ervin, senior adviser to the Working Families Party and former gubernatorial candidate[81]
  • David Trone, businessman[16]
Newspapers and magazines
Valerie Ervin (withdrew)
U.S. Representatives
Ben Jealous
Newspapers and magazines
U.S. Presidents
U.S. Vice Presidents
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Individuals
State legislators
Local officials
  • Catharine Pugh, Mayor of Baltimore City
  • Vicki Almond, Baltimore County Councilwoman
  • Edward Burroughs, Prince George’s County Board of Education Member
  • Ryan Dorsey, Baltimore City Councilman
  • Jessica Fitzwater, Frederick County Councilmember
  • Don Mohler, Baltimore County Executive
  • Ike Leggett, Montgomery County Executive
  • Ryan Dorsey, Baltimore City Councilman
  • Bill Henry, Baltimore City Councilman
  • Sharon Middleton, Baltimore City Councilwoman
  • Edward Reisinger, Baltimore City Councilman
  • Robert Stokes, Baltimore City Councilman
  • Shannon Sneed, Baltimore City Councilwoman
  • Eric Costello, Baltimore City Councilman
  • Kristerfer Burnett, Baltimore City Councilman
  • Brandon Scott, Baltimore City Councilman, Candidate for Lt. Governor
  • Zeke Cohen, Baltimore City Councilman
Organizations
Kevin Kamenetz (deceased)
U.S. Representatives
State legislators
Local officials
  • Cathy Bevins, member of the Baltimore County Council[103]
  • Julian E. Jones Jr., member of the Baltimore County Council[103]
Individuals
Rich Madaleno
U.S. Representatives
Attorney General
State Senators
  • Susan Lee, state senator
  • Will Smith, state senator
State Delegates
  • Al Carr, state delegate
  • Jeff Waldstreicher, state delegate
  • Sheila Hixson, state delegate
  • Ana Sol-Gutierrez, state delegate
  • Karen Young, state delegate
  • Jim Gilchrist, state delegate
  • Marice Morales, state delegate
  • Bonnie Cullison, state delegate
  • David Moon, state delegate
  • Anne Kaiser, state delegate
  • Eric Luedtke, state delegate
Local officials
  • David Lublin, former mayor of Chevy Chase[16]
  • Chris Trumbauer, Anne Arundel County Councilmember
  • Peter Benjamin, Garrett Park Mayor
  • Mary Flynn, Chevy Chase Mayor
  • Barney Rush, Chevy Chase Councilmember
  • Scott Fosler, Chevy Chase Councilmember and former Montgomery County Councilmember and former Chevy Chase Mayor
  • Kathy Strom, former Chevy Chase Mayor
  • Pat Burda, former Chevy Chase Mayor
  • Linna Barnes, former Chevy Chase Mayor
  • Vicky Taplin, former Chevy Chase Councilmember
  • Lance Hoffman, former Chevy Chase Councilmember
  • Pat Baptiste, former Village of Chevy Chase Mayor and former Montgomery County Planning Board member
  • Shirley Brandman, former Montgomery County Board of Education member
  • Meredith Wellington, former Montgomery County Planning Board member
Organizations
  • BWLDC LiUNA
  • Montgomery County Green Democrats
  • Gay & Lesbian Victory Fund[105]
Individuals
Alec Ross
Individuals
Jim Shea
Elected officials
State Delegates
  • Cory McCray, state delegate
  • Antonio Hayes, state delegate
Local officials
  • Shannon Sneed, Member of Baltimore City Council
  • John Bullock, Member of Baltimore City Council
  • Kristerfer Burnett, Member of Baltimore City Council
  • Brandon Scott, Member of Baltimore City Council
Krish Vignarajah
Individuals
Organizations
  • Columbia Democratic Club [106]
  • Moms Demand Action for Gun Sense in America
  • Asian American Democratic Club of Montgomery County [107]
  • Muslim Democratic Club of Montgomery County [108]

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Rushern
Baker		 Valerie
Ervin		 Ben
Jealous		 Kevin
Kamenetz		 Richard
Madaleno		 Jim
Shea		 Krish
Vignarajah		 Other Undecided
Gonzales Research June 4–10, 2018 505 ± 4.5% 25% 7% 23% – 9% 6% 5% 2%[lower-alpha 1] 22%
OpinionWorks May 29 – June 6, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 16% 5% 16% – 4% 4% 4% 7%[lower-alpha 2] 44%
University of Maryland May 29 – June 3, 2018 532 ± 6.0% 16% 8% 21% – 6% 4% 4% 2%[lower-alpha 3] 39%
Mason-Dixon February 20–24, 2018 500 ± 4.5% 26% – 14% 15% 4% 3% 2% 3%[lower-alpha 4] 32%
Goucher College February 12–18, 2018 409 ± 4.8% 19% – 10% 12% 2% 2% 2% 6%[109] 47%
Gonzales Research December 27, 2017 – January 5, 2018 501 ± 4.5% 24% – 14% 14% 5% 1% 2% 8%[lower-alpha 5] 33%
Mason-Dixon September 27–30, 2017 400 ± 5.0% 28% – 10% 11% 3% <1% 1% 1%[lower-alpha 6] 46%
Goucher College September 14–18, 2017 324 ± 5.4% 13% – 6% 8% 2% 2% 1% 22%[lower-alpha 7] 44%
Notes
  1. Alec Ross with 2%, Ralph Jaffe and James Jones with <1%
  2. Alec Ross with 1%, someone else with 6%
  3. Alec Ross with 2%
  4. Alec Ross with 2%, Ralph Jaffe 1%
  5. Maya Rockeymoore 6%, Alec Ross with 1%, Ralph Jaffe with 0%
  6. Alec Ross with 1%</
  7. Doug Gansler 11%, Maya Rockeymoore 8%, Alec Ross with 1%. Other 2%

Results
Results by county:
Democratic primary results[40]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Ben Jealous 231,895 39.6%
Democratic Rushern Baker 171,696 29.3%
Democratic Jim Shea 48,647 8.3%
Democratic Krish O'Mara Vignarajah 48,041 8.2%
Democratic Rich Madaleno 34,184 5.8%
Democratic Kevin Kamenetz/Valerie Ervin 18,851 3.2%
Democratic Alec Ross 13,780 2.4%
Democratic Ralph Jaffe 9,405 1.6%
Democratic James Jones 9,188 1.6%
Total votes 585,687 100.0%

Green nomination

Candidates

Declared
  • Ian Schlakman, entrepreneur and former co-chair of the Maryland Green Party[110]
    • Running mate: Annie Chambers, reverend and Baltimore City Resident Advisory Board Member[110][111]

Results

Following the Maryland Green Party's nominating procedure, the delegates of the Coordinating Council, which is the party's State Central Committee, made the decision to nominate the gubernatorial ticket as no other candidate had filed by the party's March 30, 2018 deadline. More than one ticket seeking the nomination would have required the party to conduct a primary, an obligation not mandated by the State Board of Elections for non-principal parties.[112]

Green State Central Committee Designation[112]
April 20 - April 25
Candidate Delegates in favor Delegates against Delegates not voting
Ian Schlakman / Annie Chambers 15 0 5

Libertarian convention

Candidates

Declared
  • Shawn Quinn, nominee for governor in 2014 and nominee for the House of Delegates in 2010[113]
    • Running mate: Christina Smith
Candidate Votes in favor Votes against Not voting
Shawn Quinn / Christina Smith 32 1 0

General election

Debates

Larry Hogan and Ben Jealous met for their one and only scheduled debate on September 24. The debate was livestreamed in the evening by the Maryland Public Television.[114]

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
FiveThirtyEight[115] Solid R November 5, 2018
The Washington Post[116] Likely R November 5, 2018
Fox News[117][lower-alpha 1] Likely R November 5, 2018
Politico[118] Likely R November 5, 2018
The Cook Political Report[119] Likely R October 26, 2018
Governing[120] Likely R November 5, 2018
Real Clear Politics[121] Likely R November 5, 2018
Daily Kos[122] Likely R November 5, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[123] Likely R November 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[124] Likely R November 1, 2018
Notes
  1. The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Larry
Hogan (R)		 Ben
Jealous (D)		 Other Undecided
University of Maryland October 4–7, 2018 648 LV ± 4.5% 58% 38% 0% 3%
814 RV ± 4.0% 56% 36% 0% 2%
Gonzales Research October 1–6, 2018 806 ± 3.5% 54% 36% 2%[lower-alpha 1] 9%
Mason-Dixon September 24–26, 2018 625 ± 4.0% 52% 37% 2%[lower-alpha 1] 9%
Goucher College September 11–16, 2018 472 ± 4.5% 54% 32% 2%[lower-alpha 1] 9%
Gonzales Research August 1–8, 2018 831 ± 3.5% 52% 36% 1%[lower-alpha 2] 11%
Garin-Hart-Yang (D-Jealous) July 10–14, 2018 601 ± 4.0% 49% 40% – 11%
Gonzales Research June 4–10, 2018 800 ± 3.5% 51% 34% – 14%
University of Maryland May 29 – June 3, 2018 968 ± 4.5% 51% 39% – 10%
Goucher College April 14–19, 2018 617 ± 3.9% 44% 31% – 22%
Mason-Dixon February 20–22, 2018 625 ± 4.0% 50% 33% – 17%
Gonzales Research December 27, 2017 – January 5, 2018 823 ± 3.5% 49% 36% – 15%
Mason-Dixon September 27–30, 2017 625 ± 4.0% 49% 33% – 18%
Notes
  1. Shawn Quinn (L) and Ian Schlakman (G) with 1%
  2. Shawn Quinn (L) with 1%, Ian Schlakman (G) with 0%

Results
Maryland gubernatorial election, 2018[125]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Republican Larry Hogan (incumbent) 1,275,644 55.35% +4.32%
Democratic Ben Jealous 1,002,639 43.51% -3.74%
Libertarian Shawn Quinn 13,241 0.57% -0.89%
Green Ian Schlakman 11,175 0.48% N/A
Write-in 1,813 0.08% -0.18%
Total votes 2,304,512 100.00% N/A
Republican hold

Results by congressional district

Hogan carried 6 of 8 congressional districts.

District Larry
Hogan		 Ben
Jealous		 Elected
Representative
1st 78.9% 19.6% Andy Harris
2nd 56.3% 43.2% Dutch Ruppersberger
3rd 55.8% 43.1% John Sarbanes
4th 40.1% 58.5% Anthony G. Brown
5th 51.9% 47.1% Steny Hoyer
6th 59.4% 39.3% David Trone
7th 43.9% 54.9% Elijah Cummings
8th 53.2% 45.8% Jamie Raskin
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See also

References
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