2018 United States Senate election in Indiana

The 2018 United States Senate election in Indiana took place on November 6, 2018, along with other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Joe Donnelly sought reelection to a second term, facing Republican businessman and former state representative Mike Braun and Libertarian Party nominee Lucy Brenton. In 2017, Politico described the race as "possibly the GOP's best opportunity to seize a Senate seat from Democrats" in the 2018 elections.[1] The primary election was held on May 8, 2018.[2] In October 2018, RealClearPolitics rated the race a toss-up between the Democratic and Republican nominees, with the Libertarian receiving a poll average of 6%.[3] Braun defeated Donnelly in the general election by a margin of 5.9 percent, similar to Donnelly's margin of victory in 2012 (5.7).

2018 United States Senate election in Indiana

November 6, 2018 (2018-11-06)
Turnout	50.42%
Nominee Mike Braun Joe Donnelly Party Republican Democratic Popular vote 1,161,546 1,025,178 Percentage 50.77% 44.81%
County results Braun:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80% Donnelly:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%
U.S. senator before election Joe Donnelly Democratic Elected U.S. Senator Mike Braun Republican

Background

In 2012, Joe Donnelly was elected to the Senate with 50% of the vote to Republican nominee Richard Mourdock's 44%. In the 2016 presidential election, Republican nominee Donald Trump won Indiana with about 56.5% of the vote to Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton's 37.5%.[4][5]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Joe Donnelly, incumbent U.S. Senator[6]

Withdrew

• Martin Del Rio, Iraq War veteran[7][8]

Endorsements

Joe Donnelly
U.S. Vice President Joe Biden, 47th Vice President of the United States[9][10][11] United States Senator Doug Jones, United States Senator from Alabama[12] Organization End Citizens United[13]

Results

Democratic primary results[14]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Joe Donnelly (incumbent)	284,621	100.00%
Total votes			284,621	100.00%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Mike Braun, businessman and former state representative[15][16]

Eliminated in the primary election

• Luke Messer, U.S. Representative[17]
• Todd Rokita, U.S. Representative[18][19][20]

Declined

• Jim Banks, U.S. Representative[21]
• Susan Brooks, U.S. Representative (endorsed Luke Messer)[19][22]
• Mike Delph, state senator (endorsed Todd Rokita)[18][23]
• Jackie Walorski, U.S. Representative[24][25][26]

Withdrawn

• Terry Henderson, businessman[27][28] (endorsed Mike Braun)[29]
• Andy Horning, Libertarian nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2012 and Libertarian nominee for IN-08 in 2014[30][31]
• Mark Hurt, attorney and former congressional aide[32][33][34][35]
• Andrew Takami, director of Purdue Polytechnic New Albany[36][37] (endorsed Luke Messer)[38]

Endorsements

Mike Braun
U.S. Senators Tom Coburn (R-OK)[39] State Senators Liz Brown[40] State Representatives Ronald Bacon[40] Christopher Judy[40] Chris May[40] Bob Morris[40] Organizations Tea Party Patriots[41] National Organization for Marriage[42] Newspapers The Journal Gazette[43]

Luke Messer

U.S. Representatives Susan Brooks, U.S. Representative (R-IN)[44] State-level officials Martin Carbaugh, state representative[45] Dave Heine, state representative[45] Todd Huston, state representative[46] David C. Long, State Senate President Pro Tempore[47] Wendy McNamara, state representative[48] Thomas Wyss, former state senator[45] Former state party chairs Tim Berry[49] J. Murray Clark[49] Gordon Durnil[49] Al Hubbard[49] Jim Kittle[49] Bruce Melchert[49] Local-level officials Christine Altman, Hamilton County Commissioner[46] James Brainard, Carmel Mayor[46] Andy Cook, Westfield Mayor[46] Steve Dillinger, Hamilton County Commissioner[46] Scott Fadness, Fishers Mayor[46] Mark Heirbrandt, Hamilton County Commissioner[46] Individuals James Bopp, conservative attorney and constitutional scholar[50]

Todd Rokita

State-level officials Mike Delph, state senator[23] Alan Morrison, state representative[51] Hal Slager, state representative[52] Heath VanNatter, state representative[53] Former state party chairs Jeff Cardwell[54] Rexford C. Early[55] Local-level officials Ken Meyer. Decatur Mayor[56] Monty Snelling, Clark County Auditor[57] Individuals Russ Willis, chairman of the Madison County Republican Party[58] Newspapers The Times of Northwest Indiana[59]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Luke Messer	Todd Rokita	Mike Braun	Other	Undecided
Strategic National (R)	May 5–6, 2018	300	± 5.7%	29%	28%	44%	–	–
Gravis Marketing	April 6–11, 2018	280	± 5.9%	13%	16%	26%	–	45%
GS Strategy Group (R-Rokita)	January 6–9, 2018	500	± 4.4%	9%	24%	9%	–	58%
GS Strategy Group (R-Rokita)	July 16–18, 2017	500	± 4.4%	20%	28%	–	–	51%
				14%	21%	11%	–	55%
OnMedia (R-Messer)	July 10–12, 2017	400	± 4.8%	23%	23%	2%	7%[lower-alpha 1]	45%

Results

Results by county:

Braun

•   80–90%
•   60–70%
•   50–60%
•   40–50%
•   <40%

Rokita

•   <40%
•   40–50%

Messer

•   <40%
•   40–50%
•   50–60%
•   60–70%

Republican primary results[14]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Mike Braun	208,602	41.17%
	Republican	Todd Rokita	151,967	29.99%
	Republican	Luke Messer	146,131	28.84%
Total votes			506,700	100.00%

Independent

Candidates

Declared

• James Johnson, Jr.[60]

General election

Candidates

• Mike Braun, businessman and former state representative (R)
• Lucy Brenton (L)
• Joe Donnelly, incumbent (D)
• James Johnson, Jr. (I)

Debates

• Complete video of debate, October 8, 2018

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[61]	Tossup	October 26, 2018
Inside Elections[62]	Tossup	November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[63]	Lean R	November 5, 2018
CNN[64]	Tossup	November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[65]	Tossup	November 5, 2018
Daily Kos[66]	Tossup	November 5, 2018
Fox News[67]	Tossup	November 5, 2018

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018
Candidate (party)	Total receipts	Total disbursements	Cash on hand
Joe Donnelly (D)	$16,100,528	$13,872,981	$2,321,981
Mike Braun (R)	$16,964,706	$15,576,842	$1,387,861
Source: Federal Election Commission[68]

Endorsements

Mike Braun (R)

U.S. Executive Branch Officials George W. Bush, 43rd President of the United States[69][70] Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States[71] Mike Pence, 48th Vice President of the United States[72] U.S. Senators Tom Coburn (R-OK, former)[39] Joni Ernst (R-IA)[73] Lindsey Graham (R-SC)[74][75] David Perdue (R-GA)[76] Todd Young (R-IN)[77] U.S. Representatives Jim Banks, U.S. Representative (R-IN)[78] Mark Meadows, U.S. Representative (R-NC)[79] Todd Rokita, U.S. Representative, 2018 Senate candidate (R-IN)[80] Governors Eric Holcomb, Governor of Indiana[81] State Senators Liz Brown[40] State Representatives Ronald Bacon[40] Christopher Judy[40] Chris May[40] Bob Morris[40] Cabinet-level officials Kellyanne Conway, Counselor to the President[82][83] Sarah Huckabee Sanders, White House Press Secretary[83] Ivanka Trump, Advisor to the President[83] Individuals Dan Bongino, NRATV contributor[84][85] Rudy Giuliani, former Mayor of New York City[86][87] Kimberly Guilfoyle, American television news personality[88] Lou Holtz, former Notre Dame football coach[89] Bob Knight, former Indiana University basketball coach[90] Ronna McDaniel, Chair of the RNC[91] Oliver North, President of the National Rifle Association[92] Greg Pence, brother of Mike Pence[93] Donald Trump Jr., businessman and son of U.S. President Donald Trump[94] Organizations FreedomWorks[95] Indiana Right to Life[96] National Federation of Independent Business[97] National Right to Life[98] Republican Jewish Coalition[99] Tea Party Patriots[41] U.S. Chamber of Commerce[100] National Rifle Association[101] Indiana Manufacturers Association[102] National Organization for Marriage[103]

Joe Donnelly (D)

U.S. Executive Branch officials Barack Obama, 44th President of the United States[104][105] Joe Biden, 47th Vice President of the United States[9][10][11] Chuck Hagel, former United States Secretary of Defense (Republican)[106] U.S. Senators Michael Bennet, U.S. Senator from Colorado[107] Cory Booker, U.S. Senator from New Jersey[108] Chris Coons, U.S. Senator from Delaware[109] Catherine Cortez Masto, U.S. Senator from Nevada[110] Dick Durbin, U.S. Senator from Illinois[111] Tammy Duckworth, U.S. Senator from Illinois[112] Kamala Harris, U.S. Senator from California[113] Doug Jones, U.S. Senator from Alabama[114][12] Amy Klobuchar, U.S. Senator from Minnesota[115] Brian Schatz, U.S. Senator from Hawaii[116] Local officials John R. Gregg, former Speaker of the Indiana House of Representatives[117] Thomas McDermott Jr., Mayor of Hammond, Indiana[118] Individuals Victor Oladipo, professional basketball player for the Indiana Pacers[119][120] Amy Schumer, actress[121] Amy Siskind, activist and writer[122] Derrick Mayes, professional football player[123] Organizations Alliance for Retired Americans[124] Communications Workers of America[125] End Citizens United[13] National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare[126] National Education Association[127] United Automobile Workers[128] Derrick Mayes, professional football player[123] Newspapers Journal Gazette[129]

Declined to endorse
Organizations Indiana Chamber of Commerce[130] Newspapers Indianapolis Star[131][132]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Joe Donnelly (D)	Mike Braun (R)	Lucy Brenton (L)	Other	Undecided
HarrisX	November 3–5, 2018	600	± 4.0%	42%	43%	–	–	–
HarrisX	November 2–4, 2018	600	± 4.0%	43%	41%	–	–	–
HarrisX	November 1–3, 2018	600	± 4.0%	43%	42%	–	–	–
HarrisX	October 31 – November 2, 2018	600	± 4.0%	44%	42%	–	–	–
HarrisX	October 30 – November 1, 2018	600	± 4.0%	43%	43%	–	–	–
HarrisX	October 29–31, 2018	600	± 4.0%	40%	43%	–	–	–
Fox News	October 27–30, 2018	722 LV	± 3.5%	45%	38%	5%	2%	9%
		852 RV	± 3.0%	42%	38%	6%	2%	11%
HarrisX	October 24–30, 2018	1,400	± 2.6%	42%	42%	–	–	–
Marist College	October 24–28, 2018	496 LV	± 5.5%	45%	42%	7%	<1%	5%
				48%	46%	–	2%	5%
		800 RV	± 4.2%	43%	40%	9%	<1%	7%
				47%	45%	–	2%	7%
Cygnal (R)	October 26–27, 2018	505	± 4.4%	46%	49%	–	3%	2%
YouGov	October 23–26, 2018	975	± 3.7%	43%	46%	3%	0%	8%
Mason Strategies (R)	October 15–20, 2018	600	± 3.9%	43%	47%	3%	–	7%
American Viewpoint (R-Braun)	October 14–17, 2018	800	–	40%	44%	7%	–	5%
SurveyUSA	October 12–16, 2018	816	± 4.6%	41%	40%	8%	–	11%
Gravis Marketing	October 12–16, 2018	377	± 5.1%	44%	40%	7%	–	10%
Vox Populi Polling	October 13–15, 2018	783	± 3.5%	55%	45%	–	–	–
American Viewpoint (R-Braun)	October 7–10, 2018	800	–	40%	44%	7%	–	7%
American Viewpoint (R-Braun)	September 30 – October 3, 2018	800	–	39%	43%	7%	–	5%
Fox News	September 29 – October 2, 2018	695 LV	± 3.5%	43%	41%	6%	2%	9%
		806 RV	± 3.5%	41%	40%	6%	1%	10%
Ipsos	September 12–20, 2018	1,181	± 3.0%	46%	43%	–	3%	8%
Fox News	September 8–11, 2018	677 LV	± 3.5%	43%	45%	3%	1%	8%
		804 RV	± 3.5%	42%	41%	4%	1%	10%
Marist College	August 26–29, 2018	576 LV	± 5.0%	44%	41%	8%	1%	6%
				49%	43%	–	2%	7%
		816 RV	± 4.2%	43%	40%	8%	1%	8%
				48%	42%	–	2%	9%
The Trafalgar Group (R)	July 31 – August 7, 2018	1,420	± 2.6%	51%	39%	–	–	11%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	June 11 – July 2, 2018	952	± 5.0%	47%	49%	–	–	4%
Gravis Marketing	May 10–15, 2018	400	± 4.9%	46%	47%	–	–	7%

Results

On November 6, 2018, Braun won the general election.[133] He swept southern Indiana, the suburbs of Indianapolis, and most other rural areas in the state. Donnelly ran well behind his 2012 vote totals, winning only in Indianapolis, the college towns (Bloomington, Terre Haute, West Lafayette, South Bend), and Northwest Indiana.[134]

United States Senate election in Indiana, 2018[135]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	Republican	Mike Braun	1,161,546	50.77%	+6.45%
	Democratic	Joe Donnelly (incumbent)	1,025,178	44.81%	-5.20%
	Libertarian	Lucy Brenton	101,153	4.42%	-1.26%
	Write-in		70	<0.01%	N/A
Total votes			2,287,947	100.00%	N/A
	Republican gain from Democratic

By congressional district

Braun won 6 of 9 congressional districts.

District	Braun	Donnelly	Elected Representative
1st	37.9%	60.6%	Pete Visclosky
2nd	51.0%	45.5%	Jackie Walorski
3rd	59.6%	36.7%	Jim Banks
4th	57.9%	37.4%	Jim Baird
5th	47.9%	48.4%	Susan Brooks
6th	60.8%	34.3%	Greg Pence
7th	31.8%	64.5%	André Carson
8th	57.3%	38.4%	Larry Bucshon
9th	54.3%	41.5%	Trey Hollingsworth

Notes

1. Curtis Hill* 4%; Mark Hurt†, Terry Henderson†, and Andrew Takami† with 1%. *Hypothetical candidate. †Withdrawn.

References

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40. Mike Braun. "I'm proud to announce that my campaign has been endorsed by State Rep. Chris Judy, State Rep. John Young, State Rep. Bob Morris, State Rep. Ron Bacon, State Rep. Chris May, and State Senator Liz Brown. With momentum gaining across the state I'm proud to be endorsed by some of Indiana's best leaders". Facebook.
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91. Ronna McDaniel. "It's time to send Democrat Joe Donnelly packing and elect @braun4indiana to the Senate! #INSen". Twitter.
93. Mike Braun [@braun4indiana] (October 22, 2018). "Join me, @DonaldJTrumpJr , @kimguilfoyle , & @GregPenceIN TODAY rallying Hoosiers to get out the vote and drain the swamp!" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
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99. "Republican Jewish Coalition launches first wave of midterm endorsements". NBCNews.com. July 23, 2018.
100. Mike Braun. "Building my business, I've jumped over just about every hurdle D.C. can put in your path; in the Senate, I'll use my experience to help Hoosier business thrive. I'm honored to accept @USChamber's endorsement & look forward to working with them to keep our economy roaring. #INSen". Twitter.
101. Mike Braun. "My dad gave me my first shotgun when I was 10 years old and I still use it to this day. I am honored to accept the @NRA's endorsement and to work with them to fight Democrat attacks on Hoosiers' fundamental right to bear arms and defend their families. #INSen". Twitter.
102. Mike Braun. "Manufacturing is the backbone of Indiana's economy, & I'm honored to accept this endorsement from the leading advocate for Hoosier manufacturers: @IMA1901. I look forward to working with IMA to keep Indiana manufacturing thriving & keep D.C. out of their way. #INSen #IBackBraun". Twitter.
103. "NOM Endorses Candidates in Key Senate Midterm Contests". NOM Blog. October 17, 2018. Retrieved October 31, 2018.
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105. Press, Associated. "Indiana Dems: Obama visiting Gary for Donnelly rally on Sunday".
106. Joe Donnelly. "Secretary Chuck Hagel has always known the importance of looking after our servicemembers & veterans. We worked closely together to pass the Jacob Sexton Military Suicide Prevention Act – my first bill in the Senate. It was an honor to have him here supporting our campaign". Twitter.
107. Joe Donnelly. "Thanks @BennetforCO for joining me on the road today to remind Hoosiers to vote early!". Twitter.
108. Joe Donnelly. "Very happy to have my friend @CoryBooker in Indy with me today. Starting the day right at Kountry Kitchen joined by ministers and @Andre4Congress talking about the importance of getting Hoosiers to the polls". Twitter.
109. Joe Donnelly. ".@ChrisCoonsforDE and I made 7 different stops across Northwest Indiana yesterday where we met hundreds of Hoosiers who were ready to vote early (or already had!). Make a plan to vote as soon as possible today!". Twitter.
110. Catherine Cortez Masto. "Great stopping by a Harrison County field office in Indiana to help ensure Hoosiers send @JoeforIndiana back to the Senate! Joe's fighting to protect our health care & ensure those with pre-existing conditions can access the care they need". Twitter.
111. Joe Donnelly. "Packed house at the USW rally in Chesterton tonight! Thanks to my friend @DickDurbin for joining us! Our @steelworkers know just how much is on the line this election". Twitter.
112. Tammy Duckworth. "Today I am in Indiana supporting my friend @JoeforIndiana who is in a tough reelection fight. Our first stop was Shapiro's Deli where I got the famous Reuben and talked with voters. We then stopped by the campaign headquarters for a canvass kickoff and some phone banking". Twitter.
113. "Kamala Harris makes fundraising pitch for Joe Donnelly". October 4, 2018.
114. Joe Donnelly. "It was wonderful to have my friend @DougJones in Indianapolis with me this morning. Doug is right -- make sure you're registered and make a plan to vote on November 6!". Twitter.
115. Joe Donnelly. "Thanks to my friend @amyklobuchar for coming to see all our volunteers in South Bend yesterday! We've got folks all over the state knocking on doors and talking to voters". Twitter.
116. Brian Schatz. "Today is a good day to send a few bucks, or more, to Joe Donnelly. He's good people". Twitter.
117. John Gregg. "A great read in @JGfortwayne about @JoeforIndiana working hard for all Hoosiers! 'The hired help' Connecting with farmers big part of Donnelly's re-election effort". Twitter.
118. "Thomas McDermott on Twitter".
119. "Victor Oladipo on Twitter".
120. "Kevin Rader on Twitter". Twitter.
121. "Amy Schumer on Twitter".
122. Siskind, Amy [@Amy_Siskind] (October 8, 2018). "END Mitch McConnell's reign of terror. Donate/volunteer for these close senate races: Jacky Rosen, NV Phil Bredesen, TN Claire McCaskill, MO Bill Nelson, FL Joe Donnelly, IN Heidi Heitkamp, ND Beto O'Rourke, TX Kyrsten Sinema, AZ Tammy Baldwin, WI" (Tweet). Retrieved October 20, 2018 – via Twitter.
123. Joe Donnelly. "Thanks Derrick Mayes for your support! Hoosiers, please make your plan to vote!". Twitter.
124. "Retiree Group Endorses Sen. Joe Donnelly for U.S. Senate - Retired Americans". Retired Americans. October 9, 2018.
125. "Our Candidates - CWA Political". CWA Political.
126. "Candidates We Endorse and Support - NCPSSM". ncpssm.org.
127. "NEA Fund - Recommended Candidates". neafund.org.
128. "Indiana – Official UAW Endorsements". uawendorsements.org. United Automobile Workers.
129. Joe Donnelly. ""America needs more senators like Joe Donnelly. Indiana needs to re-elect him." Thank you, @JGfortwayne!". Twitter.
130. "Indiana chamber won't endorse GOP businessman for Senate". September 1, 2018.
131. "IndyStar Editorial Board: Why Joe Donnelly deserves re-election to U.S. Senate". Indianapolis Star. November 4, 2018. Retrieved November 5, 2018.
132. "IndyStar Editorial Board: Why Mike Braun is right choice for U.S. Senate". Indianapolis Star. November 4, 2018. Retrieved November 5, 2018.
133. "Indiana Election Results". CNN. November 9, 2018.
134. Lange, Kaitlin. "Why Indiana Democrats are flailing and how they might find a road back". Indianapolis Star. Retrieved November 13, 2018.
135. "Indiana Election Reults". in.gov/sos/elections/index.htm.

External links

• Candidates at Vote Smart
• Candidates at Ballotpedia
• Campaign finance at FEC
• Campaign finance at Center for Responsive Politics
• GOP Primary Debate, February 20, 2018

Official campaign websites

• Mike Braun (R) for Senate
• Lucy Brenton (L) for Senate
• Joe Donnelly (D) for Senate