2018 United States Senate election in Missouri
The 2018 United States Senate election in Missouri took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Missouri, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections, including Missouri's quadrennial State Auditor election.
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| Turnout | 52%[1] | ||||||||||||||||
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 County results Hawley: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% McCaskill: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 80–90% | |||||||||||||||||
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Incumbent senator Claire McCaskill ran for re-election in a primary field of eight Democrats. Eleven Republicans vied for their party's nomination which went to State Attorney General Josh Hawley, who filed notification in August, 2017, that he had formed an exploratory campaign committee for the seat.[2][3]
The candidate filing deadline was March 27, 2018, and the primary election was held on August 7, 2018.[4] On November 6, 2018, Hawley was elected with 51.5% of the vote, to McCaskill's 45.4%, resulting in Republicans holding both Senate seats in Missouri for the first time since McCaskill took office in 2007.[5]
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominated
- Claire McCaskill, incumbent U.S. Senator[6][7]
Eliminated in primary
Endorsements
| Claire McCaskill |
|---|
|
Results
Results by county:
McCaskill
- 80–90%
- 70–80%
- 60–70%
- 50–60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Claire McCaskill (incumbent) | 501,872 | 82.60% | |
| Democratic | Carla Wright | 41,126 | 6.77% | |
| Democratic | John Hogan | 15,984 | 2.63% | |
| Democratic | David Faust | 15,958 | 2.63% | |
| Democratic | Angelica Earl | 15,500 | 2.55% | |
| Democratic | Travis Gonzalez | 9,480 | 1.56% | |
| Democratic | Leonard Steinman | 7,657 | 1.26% | |
| Total votes | 607,577 | 100.00% | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominated
- Josh Hawley, Missouri Attorney General[33]
Eliminated in primary
- Austin Petersen, businessman and Libertarian candidate for presidential nomination in 2016[34][35]
- Brian Hagg[9]
- Bradley Krembs[9]
- Tony Monetti, retired bomber pilot and assistant dean of aviation at University of Central Missouri[36]
- Kristi Nichols, activist and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010 and 2016[9]
- Ken Patterson, candidate for St. Louis County Executive in 2010[9]
- Peter Pfeifer[9]
- Fred Ryman, Constitution nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2016[9]
- Christina Smith[9]
- Courtland Sykes, veteran and former congressional aide[37]
Declined
- Ann Wagner, U.S. Representative and former U.S. Ambassador to Luxembourg[39]
- Aaron Hedlund, economics professor[40]
- Paul Curtman, state representative[41][42]
- Eric Greitens, former Governor of Missouri[43][44][45]
- Vicky Hartzler, U.S. Representative[46]
- Todd Richardson, Speaker of the Missouri House of Representatives[47]
- Eric Schmitt, state treasurer[48]
- David Wasinger, attorney[49][50]
- Marsha Haefner, state representative[51]
- Ed Martin, former chairman of the Missouri Republican Party, nominee for MO-03 in 2010 and nominee for attorney general in 2012[45]
Endorsements
| Josh Hawley |
|---|
|
| Austin Petersen |
|---|
|
| Tony Monetti |
|---|
|
| Courtland Sykes |
|---|
|
Debates
| Host network |
Date | Link(s) | Participants | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Hawley |
Austin Petersen |
Courtland Sykes |
Tony Monetti |
Peter Pfeifer |
Kirsti Nichols | |||
| America First Missouri | May 11, 2018 | [143] | Absent | Present | Present | Present | Present | Present |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Josh Hawley |
Austin Petersen |
Courtland Sykes |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | April 26–29, 2018 | 283 | ± 6.0% | 37% | 8% | 6% | 5% | 45% |
Results
Results by county:
Hawley
- 60–70%
- 50–60%
- 40–50%
Monetti
- 40–50%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Josh Hawley | 389,878 | 58.64% | |
| Republican | Tony Monetti | 64,834 | 9.75% | |
| Republican | Austin Petersen | 54,916 | 8.26% | |
| Republican | Kristi Nichols | 49,640 | 7.47% | |
| Republican | Christina Smith | 35,024 | 5.27% | |
| Republican | Ken Patterson | 19,579 | 2.95% | |
| Republican | Peter Pfeifer | 16,594 | 2.50% | |
| Republican | Courtland Sykes | 13,870 | 2.09% | |
| Republican | Fred Ryman | 8,781 | 1.32% | |
| Republican | Brian Hagg | 6,871 | 1.03% | |
| Republican | Bradley Krembs | 4,902 | 0.74% | |
| Total votes | 664,889 | 100.00% | ||
Libertarian primary
Candidates
Nominated
- Japheth Campbell, entrepreneur[144]
Declined
- Alicia Dearn, attorney and candidate for Vice President of the United States in 2016[146]
- Austin Petersen, Libertarian candidate for President of the United States in 2016 (running as a Republican)[147]
Results
Results by county:
Campbell
- 100%
No votes
- No votes
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | Japheth Campbell | 5,380 | 100.00% | |
| Total votes | 5,380 | 100.00% | ||
Green primary
Candidates
Nominated
- Jo Crain
Eliminated in primary
- Jerome Bauer
Results
Results by county:
Crain
- 100%
- 80–90%
- 70–80%
- 60–70%
- 50–60%
Crain/Bauer tie
- 50%
Bauer
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
- 100%
No votes
- No votes
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green | Jo Crain | 906 | 57.67% | |
| Green | Jerome Bauer | 665 | 42.33% | |
| Total votes | 1,571 | 100.00% | ||
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[149] | Tossup | October 26, 2018 |
| Inside Elections[150] | Tilt R | November 1, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[151] | Lean R | November 5, 2018 |
| CNN[152] | Tossup | November 5, 2018 |
| RealClearPolitics[153] | Tossup | November 5, 2018 |
| Daily Kos[154] | Tossup | November 5, 2018 |
| Fox News[155] | Tossup | November 5, 2018 |
| FiveThirtyEight[156] | Tossup | November 5, 2018 |
Debates
- Complete video of debate, October 18, 2018
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Total receipts | Total disbursements | Cash on hand |
| Claire McCaskill (D) | $35,361,401 | $33,594,412 | $1,789,381 |
| Josh Hawley (R) | $10,221,143 | $7,376,209 | $2,844,933 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[157] | |||
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Claire McCaskill (D) |
Josh Hawley (R) |
Japheth Campbell (L) |
Craig O'Dear (I) |
Jo Crain (G) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HarrisX | November 3–5, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 45% | 46% | – | – | – | – | – |
| HarrisX | November 2–4, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 44% | 47% | – | – | – | – | – |
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | October 29 – November 4, 2018 | 1,791 | ± 2.3% | 44% | 48% | – | – | – | 4% | 3% |
| Emerson College | November 1–3, 2018 | 732 | ± 3.8% | 46% | 49% | – | – | – | 3% | 3% |
| HarrisX | November 1–3, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 46% | 46% | – | – | – | – | – |
| Missouri Scout/Remington (R) | November 1–2, 2018 | 1,424 | ± 2.6% | 47% | 47% | 1% | 1% | 1% | – | 3% |
| HarrisX | October 31 – November 2, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 45% | 46% | – | – | – | – | – |
| Marist College | October 30 – November 1, 2018 | 600 LV | ± 5.2% | 47% | 44% | 3% | – | 2% | <1% | 4% |
| 50% | 47% | – | – | – | <1% | 3% | ||||
| 920 RV | ± 4.1% | 46% | 43% | 3% | – | 2% | 1% | 6% | ||
| 50% | 46% | – | – | – | 1% | 4% | ||||
| HarrisX | October 30 – November 1, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 46% | 43% | – | – | – | – | – |
| HarrisX | October 29–31, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 45% | 43% | – | – | – | – | – |
| HarrisX | October 24–30, 2018 | 1,400 | ± 2.6% | 46% | 44% | – | – | – | – | – |
| Fox News | October 27–30, 2018 | 741 LV | ± 3.5% | 43% | 43% | 0% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 9% |
| 45% | 45% | – | – | – | 2% | 8% | ||||
| 851 RV | ± 3.0% | 41% | 42% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 10% | ||
| 43% | 44% | – | – | – | 3% | 9% | ||||
| Cygnal (R) | October 26–27, 2018 | 501 | ± 4.4% | 46% | 49% | – | – | – | 1% | 3% |
| Missouri Scout/Remington (R) | October 24–25, 2018 | 1,376 | ± 2.6% | 45% | 49% | 1% | 1% | 1% | – | 3% |
| Missouri Scout/Remington (R) | October 17–18, 2018 | 1,215 | ± 2.7% | 46% | 47% | 2% | 1% | 1% | – | 2% |
| OnMessage Inc. (R-Hawley) | October 16–18, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 42% | 49% | – | – | – | 4% | 5% |
| The Polling Company (R-Citizens United) | October 11–13, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 47% | 50% | – | – | – | 0% | 3% |
| Ipsos | September 27 – October 7, 2018 | 1,111 | ± 3.0% | 44% | 45% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 2% | 6% |
| 1st Tuesday Campaigns | October 5–6, 2018 | 1,052 | ± 3.0% | 42% | 44% | 1% | 1% | 1% | – | 11% |
| Fox News | September 29 – October 2, 2018 | 683 LV | ± 3.5% | 43% | 43% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 6% |
| 46% | 46% | – | – | – | 3% | 5% | ||||
| 805 RV | ± 3.5% | 41% | 41% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 9% | ||
| 44% | 44% | – | – | – | 3% | 8% | ||||
| McLaughlin (R-Missouri Rising Action) | September 29 – October 2, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 44% | 52% | – | – | – | – | – |
| Vox Populi Polling | September 29 – October 1, 2018 | 869 | ± 3.3% | 49% | 51% | – | – | – | – | – |
| CNN/SSRS | September 25–29, 2018 | 756 LV | ± 4.3% | 47% | 44% | 3% | – | 1% | 0% | 4% |
| 906 RV | ± 3.9% | 43% | 42% | 4% | – | 2% | 0% | 6% | ||
| Missouri Scout/Remington (R) | September 26–27, 2018 | 1,555 | ± 2.5% | 46% | 48% | – | – | – | – | 6% |
| YouGov | September 10–14, 2018 | 917 | – | 45% | 45% | – | – | – | 4% | 6% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | September 11–13, 2018 | 1,724 | ± 2.4% | 44% | 47% | – | – | – | – | 8% |
| Fox News | September 8–11, 2018 | 675 LV | ± 3.5% | 44% | 41% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 8% |
| 45% | 45% | – | – | – | 3% | 7% | ||||
| 808 RV | ± 3.5% | 41% | 39% | 1% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 11% | ||
| 42% | 43% | – | – | – | 3% | 10% | ||||
| Marist College | August 25–28, 2018 | 568 LV | ± 4.8% | 44% | 40% | 5% | – | 3% | <1% | 8% |
| 47% | 47% | – | – | – | 1% | 5% | ||||
| 774 RV | ± 4.2% | 43% | 39% | 6% | – | 3% | <1% | 8% | ||
| 46% | 47% | – | – | – | 1% | 5% | ||||
| WPA Intelligence (R-Club For Growth) | August 12–14, 2018 | 501 | ± 4.4% | 41% | 48% | – | – | – | 3% | 8% |
| Missouri Scout/Remington (R) | August 8–9, 2018 | 1,785 | ± 2.3% | 47% | 47% | – | – | – | – | 6% |
| WPA Intelligence (R-Club For Growth) | July 10–12, 2018 | 602 | ± 4.0% | 42% | 43% | – | – | – | 4% | 11% |
| The Missouri Times/Remington (R) | July 7–8, 2018 | 1,034 | ± 3.2% | 46% | 48% | – | – | – | – | 6% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | June 11 – July 2, 2018 | 1,038 | ± 5.0% | 49% | 47% | – | – | – | – | 4% |
| McLaughlin (R-Missouri Rising Action) | June 2018 | – | – | 46% | 42% | – | – | – | – | – |
| Global Strategy Group (D-SMP) | June 11–13, 2018 | 804 | ± 3.5% | 47% | 41% | – | – | – | – | – |
| Gravis Marketing (R-Petersen) | May 16, 2018 | 822 | ± 3.4% | 43% | 50% | – | – | – | – | 7% |
| Missouri Scout/TJP Strategies (D) | May 9–10, 2018 | 898 | ± 3.3% | 48% | 44% | – | – | – | – | 8% |
| Emerson College | April 26–29, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.2% | 45% | 45% | – | – | – | – | 11% |
| Missouri Scout/TJP Strategies (D) | April 19–20, 2018 | 1,542 | ± 2.5% | 48% | 44% | – | – | – | – | 8% |
| OnMessage Inc. (R-Hawley) | April 16–18, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 46% | 47% | – | – | – | – | 7% |
| Global Strategy Group (D-SMP) | April 9–12, 2018 | – | – | 46% | 44% | – | – | – | – | – |
| Mason-Dixon | April 4–6, 2018 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 45% | 44% | – | – | – | – | 11% |
| Gravis Marketing | March 5–7, 2018 | 931 | ± 3.2% | 42% | 40% | – | – | – | – | 18% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | February 12 – March 5, 2018 | 1,938 | ± 3.6% | 44% | 52% | – | – | – | – | 4% |
| Public Policy Polling (D-TMI) | January 8–9, 2018 | 965 | ± 3.2% | 45% | 44% | – | – | – | – | 11% |
| Missouri Scout/Remington (R) | January 3–4, 2018 | 1,122 | ± 2.9% | 45% | 49% | – | – | – | – | 6% |
| Missouri Scout/Remington (R) | October 11–12, 2017 | 965 | ± 3.1% | 45% | 48% | – | – | – | – | 7% |
| Missouri Scout/Remington (R) | August 16–18, 2017 | 922 | ± 3.0% | 45% | 50% | – | – | – | – | 5% |
| Fabrizio Lee (R) | July 10–11, 2017 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 42% | 46% | – | – | – | – | 12% |
| Missouri Scout/Remington (R) | July 7–8, 2017 | 928 | ± 3.2% | 44% | 50% | – | – | – | – | 6% |
Results
Sen. McCaskill conceded a few hours after the polls closed on Election day. Despite performing strongly in the St. Louis suburbs, she ran well behind her 2012 vote in Southeast Missouri, especially in the Lead Belt and the Missouri Bootheel. She also ran poorly in the northern part of the state.[158] Despite McCaskill's loss, Missouri Democrats held the other statewide office that went up for election in this cycle, the office of Missouri State Auditor. Democratic incumbent state auditor Nicole Galloway, who had been appointed to the post in 2015 by then-Gov. Jay Nixon following a vacancy, won a full term in the 2018 State Auditor election.[159]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Josh Hawley | 1,254,927 | 51.38% | +12.27 | |
| Democratic | Claire McCaskill (incumbent) | 1,112,935 | 45.57% | -9.24 | |
| Independent | Craig O'Dear | 34,398 | 1.41% | N/A | |
| Libertarian | Japheth Campbell | 27,316 | 1.12% | -4.95 | |
| Green | Jo Crain | 12,706 | 0.52% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 7 | <0.01% | N/A | ||
| Total votes | 2,442,289 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Republican gain from Democratic | |||||
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gollark: Natural ≠ good.
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gollark: They just get cheese shipped up there periodically.
gollark: It doesn't exist so that's not very useful.
References
- "Missouri Voting-Age Population", United States Census Bureau, March 8, 2016
- Josh Hawley Senate Exploratory Committee, Federal Elections Commission. Retrieved July 29, 2018.
- Wise, Lindsay (October 17, 2017). "GOP's top Senate recruit in Missouri won't commit to voting for McConnell as leader". McClatchy. Retrieved July 29, 2018.
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- "MO-Sen: Dick Durbin (D. IL) Slams Josh Hawley (R) Over Remarks Linking Feminism To Sex Trafficking". Daily Kos. February 6, 2018.
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- Donald J. Trump. "Senator Claire McCaskill of the GREAT State of Missouri flew around in a luxurious private jet during her RV tour of the state. RV's are not for her. People are really upset, so phony! Josh Hawley should win big, and has my full endorsement". Twitter.
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- Press, The Associated. "Former Missouri senators ask Hawley to enter US Senate race".
- "AMBASSADOR JOHN BOLTON ENDORSES JOSH HAWLEY FOR U.S. SENATE IN MISSOURI". globenewswire.com. December 12, 2017.
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- "The Top 10 Senate Races of 2018". Politico. December 24, 2017.
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- "Ex-Trump strategist Steve Bannon backs Hawley, bringing insurgent stamp and controversy". News-Leader.com. Retrieved January 17, 2018.
- Donald Trump Jr. "Congrats to @HawleyMo for winning the GOP nomination for Senate in Missouri tonight! It's time for all Republicans to unite to defeat Chuck Schumer's liberal lapdog, Claire McCaskill in November. #MOSEN". Twitter.
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- "FRC Action PAC Announces Endorsement of Missouri Atty. Gen. Josh Hawley for U.S. Senate". Family Research Council Action PAC. May 21, 2018.
- Gregory J. Holman (May 30, 2018). "Hawley gets Missouri Right to Life endorsement in U.S. Senate race against McCaskill". Springfield News-Leader.
- "FreedomWorks for America Endorses Josh Hawley for Senate". FreedomWorks. February 15, 2018.
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- "National Right to Life endorses Josh Hawley for U.S. Senator from Missouri, opposes Claire McCaskill". NRL News Today. July 11, 2018.
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External links
- Candidates at Vote Smart
- Candidates at Ballotpedia
- Campaign finance at FEC
- Campaign finance at Center for Responsive Politics
- Official campaign websites
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